In the run up to the Indian general election, 2014, various organisations carry out opinion polls to gauge voting intention in India. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the Jan 2013 to the present day.
Background
Opinion polls in India can be controversial. These charges include partisan manipulation.[1]
Opinion poll methodology has heavily improved and agencies like CSDS have got it absolutely correct on 16 occasions, roughly correct on 7 occasions and wrong on 4 occasions.[2]
Opinion polls
Seats
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPA | NDA | TF | Other | ||||
| Jan–Mar 2013 | [3] | Times Now-CVoter | No sample size provided | 128 | 184 | - | - |
| Apr–May 2013 | [4] | Headlines Today-CVoter | 120,000 | 209 (without Modi) 155(with Modi) |
179(without Modi) 220 (with Modi) |
- | - |
| May 2013 | [5] | ABP News-Nielsen | 33,408 | 136 | 206 | - | - |
| Jul 2013 | [6] | The Week - Hansa Research | No sample size provided | 184 | 197 | - | 162 |
| Jul 2013 | [7] | CNN-IBN and The Hindu by CSDS | 19,062[8] | 149-157 | 172-180 | - | 208-224 |
| Jul 2013 | [9] | Times Now-India Today-CVoter | 36,914 | 134 (INC 119) | 156 (BJP 131) | - | - |
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [10] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 117 (INC 102) | 186 (BJP 162) | - | 240 |
| Dec 2013–Jan 2014 | [11] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 103 (INC 91) | 212 (BJP 188) | - | 228 |
| Dec 2013–Jan 2014 | [12] | ABP News-Nielsen | 64,006[13] | 101 (INC 81) | 226 (BJP 210) | - | 216 |
| Jan 2014 | [14] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 18,591[15] | 107 - 127 (INC 92 - 108) |
211 - 231 (BJP 192 - 210) |
- | 205 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [16] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000[17] | 101 (INC 89) | 227 (BJP 202) | - | 215 |
| Feb 2014 | [13] | ABP News-Nielsen | 29,000 | 92 | 236 | 29 | 186 |
| Feb 2014 | [18] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 29,000 | 119 - 139 (INC 94 - 110) |
212 - 232 (BJP 193 - 213) |
105 - 193 | |
| March 2014 | [19] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 128 | 230 | 55 | 130 |
| March 2014 | [20] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 20,957 | 111-123 | 234-246 | 174-198 | |
| April 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000[22] | 111 (INC 92) | 275 (BJP 226) | 157 | |
Votes
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPA | NDA | Left | Other | ||||
| December 2013–January 2014 | [11] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 23% | 34% | - | 43% |
| December 2013–January 2014 | [12] | ABP News-Nielsen | 64,006[13] | 23% | 31% | 5% | 41% |
| January 2014 | [14] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 18,591[15] | 36% (INC 27%) | 28% (BJP 34%) | 4% | 32% |
| February 2014 | [13] | ABP News-Nielsen | 20 | 46 | 5% | 40% | |
| April 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 25.6% | 34.5% | 39.9% | |
Graphs
100
200
300
400
500
600
ABP News-Jan
CNN-IBN-Jan
Times Now-Feb
ABP News-Feb
CNN-IBN-Feb
NDTV-March
CNN-IBN-March
NDTV-April
- NDA
- UPA
- Others
50
100
150
200
250
300
ABP News-Jan
CNN-IBN-Jan
Times Now-Feb
ABP News-Feb
CNN-IBN-Feb
NDTV-March
CNN-IBN-March
NDTV-April
- NDA
- UPA
- Others
State Wise Opinion Polling
Andhra Pradesh (42)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | TDP | YSR Congress | TRS | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [10] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 7 | - | 8 | 13 | 13 |
| Dec 2013-Jan 2014 | [11] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 7 | - | 8 | 13 | 13 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [16] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 10 |
| March 2014 | [19] | NDTV- Hansa Research[23] | 46,571 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 11 | |
| March–April 2014 | [24] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 1308 | 4 − 8 | 13 - 19 | 9 - 15 | 4 - 8 | |
| April 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research[25] | 24,000 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 8 | |
| April 4 - April 12, 2014 | [26] | India Today-Cicero | 1358 | 4 - 6 | 17 - 21 | 7 - 11 | 6 - 10 | |
Arunachal Pradesh (2)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [10] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 1 | 1 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [16] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 1 | 1 |
Assam (14)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | AGP | AUDF | BPF | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [10] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [16] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| March 2014 | [19] | NDTV- Hansa Research[27] | 46,571 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Bihar (40)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC-RJD-NCP | BJP-LJP | JD(U) | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [10] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 1 |
| Dec 2013-Jan 2014 | [11] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 13 | 22 | 4 | 1 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [16] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 13 | 22 | 5 | 0 |
| March 2014 | [19] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 11 | 23 | 5 | 1 |
| March–April 2014 | [28] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 1557 | 7 - 13 | 21 - 29 | 2 - 5 | 0 - 3 |
| March 30 - April 2, 2014 | [29] | India Today-Cicero | 1498 | 15 - 19 | 20 - 24 | 0 - 2 | 0 - 1 |
| April 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 12 | 24 | 4 | 0 |
Chhattisgarh (11)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [10] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 3 | 8 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [16] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 3 | 8 |
| March 2014 | [19] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 2 | 9 |
| April 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 3 | 8 |
Goa (2)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [10] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 1 | 1 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [16] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 1 | 1 |
Gujarat (26)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [10] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Dec 2013-Jan 2014 | [11] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [16] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| March 2014 | [19] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| March–April 2014 | [30] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 917 | 0 - 4 | 20 - 26 | 0 - 2 |
| April 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
Haryana (10)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP-HJC | INLD | AAP | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [10] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [16] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1 |
| March 2014 | [19] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| April 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
Himachal Pradesh (4)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [10] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 1 | 3 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [16] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 1 | 3 |
Jammu and Kashmir (6)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | PDP | NC | Others (IND. & People's Conference) | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [10] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [16] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Jharkhand (14)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | JMM | JVM | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [10] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [16] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| March 2014 | [19] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| April 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Karnataka (28)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | JD(S) | AAP | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [10] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Dec 2013-Jan 2014 | [11] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 12 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [16] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| March 2014 | [19] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| March–April 2014 | [31] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 825 | 12 - 18 | 7 - 13 | 1 - 4 (Including Others) |
0 | 1 - 4 (Including JD(S)) |
| April 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Kerala (20)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BJP | LDF | INC | KC(M) | IUML | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [10] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 0 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Dec 2013-Jan 2014 | [11] | India Today-CVoter[32] | 21,792 | - | 11 | 6 | - | - |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [16] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 2 |
| March 2014 | [19] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 0 | 13 | 7 (As UDF) | ||
| March–April 2014 | [33] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 607 | 0 | 4 - 8 | 11 - 17 (As UDF) | ||
| April 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 0 | 12 | 8 (As UDF) | ||
Madhya Pradesh (29)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | BSP | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [10] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
| Dec 2013-Jan 2014 | [11] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 1 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [16] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
| March 2014 | [19] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 4 | 24 | 1 | 0 |
| March–April 2014 | [34] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 1121 | 1 - 5 | 24 - 28 | 0 | 0 |
| April 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 0 |
Maharashtra (48)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | NCP | BJP[35] | SS | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [10] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 14 | 2 |
| Dec 2013-Jan 2014 | [11] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 14 | 6 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [16] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 8 | 5 | 17 | 15 | 3 |
| March 2014 | [19] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 12 | 33 | 3 | ||
| March 2014 | [36] | ABP News-Nielsen | Not Available | 8 | 5 | 19 | 12 | 4 |
| March–April 2014 | [37] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 1662 | 16 - 22 | 24 - 30 | 1 - 3 | ||
| April 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 9 | 37 | 2 | ||
Manipur (2)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [10] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [16] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Meghalaya (2)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | NPP | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [10] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 1 | 1 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [16] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 1 | 1 |
Mizoram (1)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [10] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 0 | 1 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [16] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 1 | 0 |
Nagaland (1)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NPF | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [10] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 1 | 0 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [16] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 1 | 0 |
Odisha (21)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | BJD | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [10] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 9 | 0 | 12 | 0 |
| Dec 2013-Jan 2014 | [11] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 8 | 0 | 13 | 0 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [16] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| March 2014 | [19] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| March–April 2014 | [38] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 796 | 0 - 4 | 3 - 7 | 10 - 16 | 0 - 2 |
| April 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
Punjab (13)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | SAD | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [10] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [16] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 6 | 2 | 5 |
| March 2014 | [19] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 8 | 5 | |
| April 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 6 | 7 | |
Rajasthan (25)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [10] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 5 | 19 | 1 |
| Dec 2013-Jan 2014 | [11] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [16] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| March 2014 | [19] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 5 | 19 | 1 |
| March–April 2014 | [39] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 837 | 0 - 2 | 21 - 25 | 0 - 2 |
| April 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
Sikkim (1)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | SDF | ||||
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [16] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Tamil Nadu (39)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | AIADMK | DMK | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [10] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 5 | 5 |
| Dec 2013-Jan 2014 | [11] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 0 | - | 29 | 5 | 5 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [16] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 5 | 6 |
| March 2014 | [19] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 10 | 2 |
| March–April 2014 | [40] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 1460 | 0 | 6 - 10 (In alliance) |
15 - 21 | 10 - 16 (In alliance) |
0 |
| April 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 0 | 3 (In alliance) |
22 | 14 (In alliance) |
0 |
| April 4 - April 12, 2014 | [26] | India Today-Cicero | 1358 | 0 | 4 - 6 (In alliance) |
20 - 24 | 9 - 13 (In alliance) |
0 - 2 |
Tripura (2)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | CPI(M) | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [10] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [16] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Uttar Pradesh (80)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | SP | BSP | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [10] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 7 | 17 | 25 | 31 | 0 |
| Dec 2013-Jan 2014 | [11] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 4 | 30 | 20 | 24 | 2 |
| Dec 2013-Jan 2014 | [41] | ABP News-Nielsen | 64,006 | 12 | 35 | 14 | 15 | 4 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [42] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 5 | 34 | 20 | 21 | 0 |
| Feb 2014 | [43] | ABP News-Nielsen | 29,000 | 11 | 40 | 13 | 14 | 2 |
| March 2014 | [19] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 12 | 40 | 13 | 15 | 0 |
| March–April 2014 | [44] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 2633 | 4 - 8 |
42 - 50 |
11 - 17 | 10 - 16 | 0 - 2 |
| March 30 - April 3, 2014 | [29] | India Today-Cicero | 1498 | 6 - 10 |
42 - 50 |
15 - 21 | 9 - 13 | 0 - 2 |
| April 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 5 | 51 | 14 | 10 | 0 |
Uttarakhand (5)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [10] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 0 | 5 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [16] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 0 | 5 |
West Bengal (42)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | AITC | Left Front | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [10] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 3 | 0 | 23 | 16 | 0 |
| Dec 2013-Jan 2014 | [11] | India Today-CVoter | 21,792 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 16 | 1 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [16] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 14 | 1 |
| March 2014 | [19] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 9 | 0 |
| March–April 2014 | [45] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 1440 | 4 - 7 | 0 - 1 | 23 - 29 | 7 - 13 | 0 |
| April 1-April 5, 2014 | [46] | India Today-Cicero | 1706 | 6 - 10 | 0 - 3 | 23 - 27 | 7 - 11 | 0 - 1 |
| April 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 4 | 0 | 30 | 8 | 0 |
Union Territories
NCT of Delhi (7)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | AAP | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [10] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [16] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| March 2014 | [19] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 46,571 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| March–April 2014 | [47] | CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS | 891 | 0 - 1 | 3 - 4 | 2 - 3 |
| 28-29 March 2014 | [48] | India Today- Cicero | 1,188 | 0 - 2 | 5 - 7 | 1 - 2 |
| April 2014 | [21] | NDTV- Hansa Research | 24,000 | 0 | 6 | 1 |
Other Union Territories (6)
| Conducted in Month(s) | Ref | Polling Organisation/Agency | Sample size | bgcolor=Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color | | bgcolor=Template:National Democratic Alliance (India)/meta/color | | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC | BJP | AAP | Others | ||||
| Aug–Oct 2013 | [10] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 24,284 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Jan-Feb 2014 | [16] | Times Now-India TV-CVoter | 14,000 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Other findings
The eight largest metropolises in India are considered important because they constitute 31 seats, larger than some regions altogether. In the previous election, the INC-led UPA won 24 of these seats, but the UPA is trailing in these areas.[49] A NDTV opinion poll in Uttar Pradesh indicated that the BJP would win its largest share of seats in the region by winning 40 of the 80 seats. BSP would get 15 seats, SP would get 13 seats, INC-RLD will get 12 seats, amongst its losses will Ajit Singh. The poll also asked those in Gujarat if Modi should run from U.P., of which 67% responded negatively, while those in U.P. said by 62% that they would like to see him run from there.[50] A survey of first time voters suggested Modi was the most popular prime ministerial candidate and Mamata Banerjee was the most popular outside the BJP or INC.[51] Latest survey by CNN-IBN-Lokniti predicts the decline (by 5%) in popularity of Narendra Modi as PM candidate.[52]
Controversy
Polling agencies have been criticised by some political parties, intellectuals and political scholars.[why?][53] One of the limitations in making predictions is the modeling the relationship between vote share and the number of seats.[54]
A controversy erupted when News Express released footage of a sting operation named Operation Prime Minister which revealed that a number of polling agencies were involved in malpractices such as juggling with the statistics and results. CVoter, the polling agency exposed in this sting operation lost its contract with the India Today group.[55]
References
- ^ "In India’s National Election, Don’t Trust the Polls, Jonah Force Hill, February 24, 2014". TheDiplomat.com. Feb 2014.
- ^ "Power and Limitations of Opinion Polls: My Experiences . March 2014.
- ^ "2014 Lok Sabha polls: Big losses to UPA, no gain for NDA, survey finds". Times of India. 17 Apr 2013. Retrieved 11 June 2013.
- ^ "Narendra Modi is NDA's trump card for 2014 Lok Sabha polls, reveals Headlines Today C-Voter survey". Indiatoday.intoday.in. 21 May 2013. Retrieved 31 July 2013.
- ^ This Content Has been removed from Internet And was seen AT "http://www.newsbullet.in/india/34-more/42023-upa-set-for-a-crushing-defeatsurvey". The Site which was earlier named as newsbullet.in has been changed to abplive.in with no previous content.
- ^ "Lok Sabha polls 2014: Narendra Modi top choice for PM, beats Rahul Gandhi, says survey". Indian Express. 4 July 2013. Retrieved 31 July 2013.
- ^ "Poll tracker". CNN-IBN. 26 July 2013. Retrieved 26 July 2013.
- ^ "Survey Methodology". Chennai, India: The Hindu. 22 July 2013. Retrieved 25 July 2013.
- ^ "2014 Poll survey projects NDA making significant gains". economic times. 29 Jul 2013. Retrieved 29 July 2013.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad "Congress 102, BJP 162; UPA 117, NDA 186: C-Voter Poll". Outlook. Retrieved 17 October 2013.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n "NDA may win over 200 seats as Modi's popularity soars further: India Today Mood of the Nation opinion poll : North, News - India Today". India Today. Retrieved 23 Jan 2013.
- ^ a b "ABP News nationwide opinion poll: NDA clear winner with 226, UPA stuck at 101". Abpnews. Retrieved 25 Jan 2013.
- ^ a b c d "Modi-led NDA way ahead than UPA, to win 236 seats in LS polls 2014: ABP News-Nielsen Opinion Poll". Abp news. 2014-02-22. Retrieved 2014-02-22.
- ^ a b "Poll tracker: NDA to get 211-231, UPA distant second with 107-127". IBNLIVE. Retrieved 24 Jan 2013.
- ^ a b "Methodology of Lokniti-IBN Tracker Round II". Lokniti. Retrieved 24 Jan 2013.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad "India TV-C Voter projection: Big gains for BJP in UP, Bihar; NDA may be 45 short of magic mark". Indiatv. Retrieved 13 Feb 2013.
- ^ "#WhoWillFormGovt: National Poll Projection - 1". Timesnow. Retrieved 13 Feb 2013.
- ^ "NDA close to halfway mark with 212-232, needs more allies". IBNLive. 2014-03-07. Retrieved 2014-03-07.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s "The Final Word - India's biggest opinion poll". NDTV. 14 March 2014. Retrieved 14 March 2014.
- ^ "Modi-powered NDA may get 234-246 seats, UPA 111-123". IBNLive. 2014-04-04. Retrieved 2014-04-04.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s "The Final Word - India's biggest opinion poll". NDTV. 14 April 2014. Retrieved 15 April 2014.
- ^ "The Final Word - India's biggest opinion poll". NDTV. 14 April 2014. Retrieved 15 April 2014.
- ^ The poll was conducted separately for Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. 1 seat was given to others in Telangana. Moreover, BJP and TDP were taken to be a coalition
- ^ "Andhra poll tracker: TDP to get 18-20 seats, YSRCP 1-2, Congress 3-4". CNN-IBN. April 1, 2014. Retrieved April 2, 2014.
- ^ The poll was conducted separately for Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.
- ^ a b "Modi powered BJP breaches southern fortress". India Today. April 20, 2014. Retrieved April 20, 2014.
- ^ The poll gave one seat to others.
- ^ "Bihar tracker: BJP-LJP to bag 21-29, RJD-Cong-NCP 7-13, JDU 2-5 seats". CNN-IBN. April 1, 2014. Retrieved April 1, 2014.
- ^ a b "Modi wave to take 42-50 seats in UP; 20-24 in Bihar: India Today Group-Cicero poll". India Today. April 11, 2014. Retrieved April 13, 2014.
- ^ "Gujarat poll tracker: BJP on a roll, to win 20-26 seats, Congress 0-4". CNN-IBN. April 2, 2014. Retrieved April 2, 2014.
- ^ "Karnataka tracker: Congress to win 12-18 seats, BJP 7-13, others 1-4". CNN-IBN. April 1, 2014. Retrieved April 2, 2014.
- ^ 3 seats given to others
- ^ "Kerala poll tracker: UDF ahead with 11-17 seats, LDF 4-8". CNN-IBN. April 1, 2014. Retrieved April 2, 2014.
- ^ "MP poll tracker: Landslide for BJP with 24-28 seats, Congress 1-5". CNN-IBN. April 2, 2014. Retrieved April 2, 2014.
- ^ With Republican Party of India (Athvale) and Shiv Sena as National Democratic Alliance (India)-NDA
- ^ "BJP-Shiv Sena clear winner in Maharashtra: ABP News-Nielsen Opinion Poll". http://www.abplive.in/. ABP News. 28 March 2014. Retrieved 28 March 2014.
{{cite web}}: External link in|website= - ^ "Maharashtra poll tracker: BJP-SS-RPI 24-30 seats, Congress-NCP 16-22". CNN-IBN. April 2, 2014. Retrieved April 2, 2014.
- ^ "Odisha tracker: Naveen's BJD to win 10-16 seats, BJP 3-7, Congress 0-4". CNN-IBN. April 1, 2014. Retrieved April 1, 2014.
- ^ "Rajasthan tracker: BJP to win 21-25 seats, Cong routed, may get 0-2". CNN-IBN. April 3, 2014. Retrieved April 4, 2014.
- ^ "Tamil Nadu tracker: AIADMK 15-21 seats, DMK 10-16, BJP alliance 6-10". CNN-IBN. April 1, 2014. Retrieved April 2, 2014.
- ^ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRHG8UgsVV4.
{{cite web}}: Missing or empty|title=(help) - ^ "India TV C voter projection big gains for BJP".
- ^ "ABP News - Nielsen Opinion Poll BJP sweep in UP-SP-BSP hit".
- ^ "UP tracker: BJP may win 42-50 seats, SP 11-17, BSP 10-16, Cong-RLD 4-8". CNN-IBN. April 3, 2014. Retrieved April 4, 2014.
- ^ "West Bengal tracker: TMC 23-29 seats, Left 7-13, Congress 4-7, BJP 0-1". CNN-IBN. April 1, 2014. Retrieved April 1, 2014.
- ^ "Trinamool Congress set to bag up to 27 of 42 Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal, says India Today-Cicero poll". India Today. April 13, 2014. Retrieved April 14, 2014.
- ^ "Delhi tracker: BJP takes lead, to win 3-4 seats, AAP 2-3, Congress 0-1". CNN-IBN. April 3, 2014. Retrieved April 3, 2014.
- ^ "India Today Group-Cicero opinion poll: BJP set to completely rout Congress in Delhi's seven Lok Sabha seats". India Today. April 2, 2014. Retrieved April 6, 2014.
- ^ Name * (21 February 2014). "Why India's Big Cities Are Important For Elections 2014". IndiaSpend. Retrieved 25 February 2014.
- ^ http://www.ndtv.com/elections/article/election-2014/ndtv-opinion-poll-uttar-pradesh-with-narendra-modi-big-dent-for-mulayam-singh-yadav-495794?pfrom=home-assemblyelection2013
- ^ "First time voters want Narendra Modi as PM, suggests India Today-CVoter Youth Survey". Indiatoday.intoday.in. 19 September 2013. Retrieved 25 December 2013.
- ^ "Modi's popularity dips but NDA still leading: Survey". Times of India. 2014-03-07. Retrieved 2014-03-07.
- ^ Election metrics | Analysing opinion polls, Karthik Shashidhar, Fri, Aug 30 2013, LiveMint
- ^ Why India's pollsters can't figure it out, Rukmini Shrinivasan, TNN, Jun 9, 2013
- ^ India Today Group suspends C-Voter poll following sting, FEB 25 2014, LiveMint
External links
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