THC Science

The 2024 United States presidential election in Massachusetts is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Massachusetts voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Massachusetts has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.^[1]

A New England state, Massachusetts had been a Democratic leaning state since 1928, and a Democratic stronghold since 1960, and is still considered a deeply blue state today.^[a] Democrats have consistently defeated Republicans by large margins in Massachusetts since 1996. In 2020, Biden won the state by more than 33%, the largest margin since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden was running for reelection to a second term, and became the party's presumptive nominee, but withdrew from the race on July 21.^[2]^[3]^[4] He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.^[5] The Republican nominee is former president Donald Trump.^[6]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

The Massachusetts Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Massachusetts Democratic primary, March 5, 2024^[7]
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	533,096	80.5%	91		91
No Preference	60,236	9.1%	1		1
Dean Phillips	29,728	4.5%
Marianne Williamson	20,402	3.1%
Other candidates	10,135	1.5%
Cenk Uygur (write-in)	82	<0.1%
Blank ballots	8,930	1.3%
Total:	662,609	100%	92		92

Republican primary

The Massachusetts Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Massachusetts Republican primary, March 5, 2024^[8]
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	343,189	59.56%	40	0	40
Nikki Haley	211,440	36.69%	0	0	0
No Preference	5,717	0.99%	0	0	0
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	5,217	0.91%	0	0	0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	3,981	0.69%	0	0	0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	1,738	0.30%	0	0	0
Other candidates	1,674	0.29%	0	0	0
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	619	0.11%	0	0	0
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)	527	0.09%	0	0	0
Blank ballots	2,148	0.37%	0	0	0
Total:	576,250	100.00%	40	0	40

Libertarian primary

The Massachusetts Libertarian primary was held on March 5, 2024.

Massachusetts Libertarian primary, March 5, 2024
Candidate	Votes	Percentage
No Preference	3,982	36.45%
Chase Oliver	1,453	13.30%
Jacob Hornberger	1,089	9.97%
Michael Rectenwald	546	5.00%
Lars Mapstead	399	3.65%
Mike ter Maat	314	2.87%
All Others	2,161	19.78%
Blank ballots	980	8.97%
Total:	10,924	100.00%
Source:^[9]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[10]	Solid D	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections^[11]	Solid D	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[12]	Safe D	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill^[13]	Safe D	December 14, 2023
CNalysis^[14]	Solid D	December 30, 2023
CNN^[15]	Solid D	January 14, 2024
The Economist^[16]	Safe D	June 12, 2024
538^[17]	Solid D	June 11, 2024
RCP^[18]	Solid D	June 26, 2024

Polling

Hypothetical polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Suffolk University^[19]^[A]	July 16–18, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	47%	29%	24%
University of New Hampshire^[20]	May 16–20, 2024	526 (LV)	± 4.3%	68%	32%	–
University of Massachusetts Lowell^[21]	October 18–25, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 4.1%	58%	32%	10%
Emerson College^[22]	September 7–8, 2022	708 (LV)	± 3.6%	54%	34%	12%
University of Massachusetts Lowell^[23]	June 7–15, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 4.0%	60%	31%	9%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
University of New Hampshire^[20]	May 16–20, 2024	526 (LV)	± 4.3%	55%	26%	10%	1%	2%	6%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
YouGov/UMass Amherst^[24]	May 17–30, 2024	700 (A)	± 4.4%	48%	27%	9%	16%
Suffolk University^[25]^[A]	April 16–20, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	52%	22%	8%	18%
Suffolk University^[26]	February 2–5, 2024	1,000 (LV)	± 3.1%	45%	26%	9%	21%
YouGov^[27]^[B]	October 13–20, 2023	700 (V)	± 5.1%	43%	21%	17%	19%

Notes

^ George H.W. Bush was the last Republican presidential nominee to win any counties in Massachusetts in 1988.
^ ^a ^b ^c Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

Partisan clients

^ ^a ^b Poll sponsored by The Boston Globe
^ Poll sponsored by the University of Massachusetts Amherst Department of Political Science & WCVB

References

^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
^ Chasmar, Jessica (June 13, 2022). "Biden 'running for re-election' in 2024, White House says". Foxnews.com. Retrieved June 25, 2022.
^ Levine, Sam; Gambino, Lauren (July 22, 2024). "Joe Biden withdraws from presidential race after weeks of pressure to quit". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
^ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
^ Gold, Michael; Nehamas, Nicholas (March 13, 2024). "Donald Trump and Joe Biden Clinch Their Party Nominations". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on March 13, 2024. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
^ "2024 President Democratic Primary". State of Massachusetts. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
^ "2024 President Republican Primary". Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Retrieved May 20, 2024.
^ "2024 President Libertarian Primary". Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. The Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
^ "'I think he cannot win.' New Globe/Suffolk poll shows strong unhappiness with Biden as the nominee. - The Boston Globe". BostonGlobe.com.
^ ^a ^b "University of New Hampshire".
^ "University of Massachusetts Lowell" (PDF).
^ Mumford, Camille (September 8, 2022). "Massachusetts 2022: Healey Leads Diehl By 18 Points; Majority of Massachusetts Voters Approve of Biden". Emerson Polling.
^ "University of Massachusetts Lowell" (PDF).
^ YouGov/UMass Amherst
^ "404 - Suffolk University". www.suffolk.edu. {{cite web}}: Cite uses generic title (help)
^ "Suffolk University" (PDF).
^ YouGov

[2] George H.W. Bush was the last Republican presidential nominee to win any counties in Massachusetts in 1988.

[key-20] Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[bglobe-22] Poll sponsored by The Boston Globe

[31] Poll sponsored by the University of Massachusetts Amherst Department of Political Science & WCVB

[1] Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.

[3] Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.

[4] Chasmar, Jessica (June 13, 2022). "Biden 'running for re-election' in 2024, White House says". Foxnews.com. Retrieved June 25, 2022.

[5] Levine, Sam; Gambino, Lauren (July 22, 2024). "Joe Biden withdraws from presidential race after weeks of pressure to quit". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved July 22, 2024.

[BidenPull-6] "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 22, 2024.

[7] Gold, Michael; Nehamas, Nicholas (March 13, 2024). "Donald Trump and Joe Biden Clinch Their Party Nominations". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on March 13, 2024. Retrieved July 22, 2024.

[8] "2024 President Democratic Primary". State of Massachusetts. Retrieved March 28, 2024.

[9] "2024 President Republican Primary". Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Retrieved May 20, 2024.

[10] "2024 President Libertarian Primary". Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Retrieved March 12, 2024.

[11] "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. The Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[12] "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[13] "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[14] "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[15] "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[16] "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.

[17] "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.

[18] Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.

[19] "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.

[21] "'I think he cannot win.' New Globe/Suffolk poll shows strong unhappiness with Biden as the nominee. - The Boston Globe". BostonGlobe.com.

[MA-auto-23] "University of New Hampshire".

[24] "University of Massachusetts Lowell" (PDF).

[25] Mumford, Camille (September 8, 2022). "Massachusetts 2022: Healey Leads Diehl By 18 Points; Majority of Massachusetts Voters Approve of Biden". Emerson Polling.

[26] "University of Massachusetts Lowell" (PDF).

[27] YouGov/UMass Amherst

[28] "404 - Suffolk University". www.suffolk.edu. {{cite web}}: Cite uses generic title (help)

[29] "Suffolk University" (PDF).

[30] YouGov

[1]

[a]

[2]

[3]

[4]

[5]

[6]

[7]

[8]

[9]

[10]

[11]

[12]

[13]

[14]

[15]

[16]

[17]

[18]

[b]

[19]

[A]

[20]

[21]

[22]

[23]

[24]

[25]

[26]

[27]

[B]

(2023 ←) 2024 United States elections (→ 2025)
U.S. President	Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming Guam (straw poll) Puerto Rico (straw poll)
U.S. Senate	Arizona California Connecticut Delaware Florida Hawaii Indiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska (regular) Nebraska (special) Nevada New Jersey New Mexico New York North Dakota Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming District of Columbia (shadow)
U.S. House (election ratings)	Alabama Alaska American Samoa Arizona Arkansas California 16th 20th sp 30th 45th 47th Colorado 4th sp Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia shadow Florida Georgia Guam Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland 6th Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey 10th sp New Mexico New York 3rd sp 26th sp North Carolina North Dakota Northern Mariana Islands Ohio 6th sp Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Puerto Rico Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas 18th sp Utah Vermont Virginia U.S. Virgin Islands Washington West Virginia Wisconsin 8th sp Wyoming
Governors	American Samoa Delaware Lt. Gov Indiana Missouri Lt. Gov Montana New Hampshire North Carolina Lt. Gov North Dakota Puerto Rico Utah Vermont Lt. Gov Washington Lt. Gov West Virginia
Attorneys general	Indiana Missouri Montana North Carolina Oregon Pennsylvania Utah Vermont Washington West Virginia
Secretaries of state	Missouri Montana North Carolina Oregon Vermont Washington West Virginia
State treasurers	Arkansas (special) Missouri North Carolina North Dakota Oregon Pennsylvania Utah Vermont Washington West Virginia
Other statewide elections	Arizona Corporation Commission Georgia Judicial Kentucky Supreme Court Montana State Auditor New Hampshire Executive Council North Carolina Council of State North Dakota State Auditor Pennsylvania Auditor General Utah State Auditor Vermont State Auditor Washington State Auditor Public Lands Commissioner West Virginia State Auditor
State legislative	Alaska House Senate Arizona House Senate Arkansas House Senate California Assembly Senate Colorado House Senate Connecticut House Senate Delaware House Senate Florida House Senate Georgia House Senate Hawaii House Senate Idaho House Senate Illinois House Senate Indiana House Senate Iowa House Senate Kansas House Senate Kentucky House Senate Maine House Senate Massachusetts House Senate Michigan House Minnesota House Missouri House Senate Montana House Senate Nebraska Nevada Assembly Senate New Hampshire House Senate New Mexico House Senate New York Assembly Senate North Carolina House Senate North Dakota House Senate Ohio House Senate Oklahoma House Senate Oregon House Senate Pennsylvania House Senate Puerto Rico House Senate Rhode Island House Senate South Carolina House Senate South Dakota House Senate Tennessee House Senate Texas House Senate Utah House Senate Vermont House Senate Washington House Senate West Virginia House Senate Wisconsin Assembly Senate Wyoming House Senate Special elections
Mayors	Alexandria, VA Anchorage, AK Austin, TX Bakersfield, CA Baltimore, MD Baton Rouge, LA Bridgeport, CT Burlington, VT El Paso, TX Fort Lauderdale, FL Fresno, CA Grand Rapids, MI Honolulu, HI Las Vegas, NV Mesa, AZ Miami-Dade County, FL Milwaukee, WI Phoenix, AZ Portland, OR Pueblo, CO Raleigh, NC Richmond, VA Riverside, CA Sacramento, CA Salt Lake County, UT San Diego, CA San Francisco, CA San Jose, CA Stockton, CA Tulsa, OK Virginia Beach, VA Wilmington, DE
Local	Chicago, IL Los Angeles, CA Los Angeles County, CA Maricopa County, AZ Multnomah County, OR Orange County, CA Portland, OR City Auditor City Council San Francisco, CA San Mateo County, CA Washington, D.C.
States and territories	Alabama Alaska American Samoa Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Guam Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Northern Mariana Islands Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Puerto Rico Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas U.S. Virgin Islands Utah Vermont Virginia Washington Washington, D.C. West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming
Ballot measures	California Proposition 1 Florida Amendment 3 Amendment 4 Idaho open primary initiative Kentucky Amendment 2 Maryland Question 1 Puerto Rico Status South Dakota Amendment G Amendment H

Federal elections in Massachusetts
U.S. President	1788 1792 1796 1800 1804 1808 1812 1816 1820 1824 1828 1832 1836 1840 1844 1848 1852 1856 1860 1864 1868 1872 1876 1880 1884 1888 1892 1896 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
U.S. Senate Class 1	1803 1808 1839 1851 1857 1863 1869 1887 1893 1899 1905 1911 1916 1922 s/1926 1928 1934 1940 1946 1952 1958 s/1962 1964 1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 s/2010 2012 2018 2024
U.S. Senate Class 2	s/1855 1859 1865 1871 s/1873 1877 1883 1889 1895 1901 1907 1913 1918 1924 1930 1936 1942 s/1944 1948 1954 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 s/2013 2014 2020
U.S. House	1788–89 1790–92 1792-93 1794–95 1796–97 1798–99 1800–01 1802–03 1804 1806 1808 1810–11 1812–13 1814–15 1816–17 1818–19 1820–21 1822–23 1824–25 1826–27 1828 1830–1970 1972 1974–2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
U.S. House Special Elections	1796–1797 s/1st s/10th s/11th 1800–1801 s/3rd s/4th s/10th s/4th s/12th s/14th 1804 s/12th 1807 s/12th 1808 s/2nd 1810–1811 s/10th s/11th s/4th 1812 s/17th 1814–1815 s/4th s/12th s/3rd 1816–1817 s/11th s/1st 1818 s/20th 1820 s/1st s/8th s/13th 1823 s/10th 1824 s/10th 1827 s/1st 1834–1991 listed here 2001 s/9th 2007 s/5th 2013 s/5th
"s/" = Special election See also: Political party strength in Massachusetts For statewide elections, see Template:State elections in Massachusetts footer.