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Turnout | 79.96% (of eligible voters) [1] ![]() | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Minnesota |
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The 2020 United States presidential election in Minnesota was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[3] Minnesota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald J. Trump, and running mate Vice President Michael R. Pence against the DFL nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Minnesota has ten electoral votes in the Electoral College.[4]
Prior to the election, 15 out of 16 news organizations predicting the election projected Minnesota as leaning towards Biden. Biden ultimately carried the state by a 7.12% margin, significantly improving over Hillary Clinton's narrow 1.52% margin in 2016. Biden's win marked the twelfth consecutive Democratic presidential win in the state, which has not voted for a Republican for President since 1972.
Biden flipped four counties Trump carried in 2016: Clay, Nicollet, Blue Earth, and Winona, all of which were won by Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. The key to Biden's success was his strong performance in the Twin Cities metropolitan area,[5] where he outperformed both Obama and Clinton. His vote share in Hennepin County, home of Minneapolis, was the highest of any presidential nominee since Republican Theodore Roosevelt in 1904. He also improved on Clinton's performance in the Iron Range,[6] although his performance in the region was still well below what Democrats had historically earned between the New Deal realignment and the 2016 election. In addition, Biden managed to flip Minnesota's 2nd congressional district, based in the Twin Cities' southern suburbs and exurbs, from Trump.
Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden carried 51% of White Minnesotans, as well as 58% of college educated voters and 55% of voters from union households.[7] Trump's strength was concentrated in rural areas, while Biden performed better in urban and suburban areas.
Biden became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Koochiching or Mahnomen Counties since those counties were formed in 1906; the first Democrat to win without Traverse County since Grover Cleveland in 1892; the first to win without Kittson, Norman, Itasca, or Beltrami Counties since Woodrow Wilson in 1912; the first to win without Swift County since Wilson in 1916; the first to win without Lac qui Parle County since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944; the first to win without Chippewa, Freeborn, Mower, or Rice Counties since John F. Kennedy in 1960 and the first to win without Fillmore County since Jimmy Carter in 1976. This is the first time since 1964 in which Minnesota voted more Republican than New Hampshire.
Primary elections
[edit]Republican primary
[edit]The Republican primary took place on March 3, 2020. Donald Trump and Bill Weld were among the declared Republican candidates.
Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates |
---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump (incumbent) | 137,275 | 97.7 | 39 |
Bill Weld (write-in) | 443 | 0.3 | 0 |
Rocky De La Fuente (write-in) | 16 | 0.0 | 0 |
Other write-ins | 2,821 | 2.0 | 0 |
Total | 140,555 | 100.0 | 39 (of 39) |
Democratic primary
[edit]The Democratic primary took place on March 3, 2020. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and former Vice President Joe Biden were among the major declared candidates.[10] Amy Klobuchar, U.S. Senator from Minnesota since 2007, expressed interest in running, and formally declared her candidacy in February 2019,[11][12][13] but then withdrew prior to Minnesota's race.
Biden won the most delegates.[14]
Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[16] |
---|---|---|---|
Joe Biden | 287,553 | 38.64 | 38 |
Bernie Sanders | 222,431 | 29.89 | 27 |
Elizabeth Warren | 114,674 | 15.41 | 10 |
Michael Bloomberg | 61,882 | 8.32 | |
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)[a] | 41,530 | 5.58 | |
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[a] | 7,616 | 1.02 | |
Tulsi Gabbard | 2,504 | 0.34 | |
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)[b] | 1,749 | 0.24 | |
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[a] | 551 | 0.07 | |
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)[b] | 315 | 0.04 | |
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 226 | 0.03 | |
Cory Booker (withdrawn) | 197 | 0.03 | |
John Delaney (withdrawn)[c] | 172 | 0.02 | |
Julian Castro (withdrawn) | 114 | 0.02 | |
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)[d] | 72 | 0.01 | |
Uncommitted | 2,612 | 0.35 | |
Total | 744,198 | 100% | 75 |
Libertarian caucuses
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![]() First alignment vote results by congressional district
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The Libertarian Party of Minnesota used ranked-choice voting to tabulate the results of their caucus. After 7 rounds, Jacob Hornberger was declared the winner.
Candidate | Round 1 | Round 7 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | |||||||
Jacob Hornberger | 37 | 38.1% | + 10 | 47 | 59.5% | ||||||
Jo Jorgensen | 12 | 12.4% | + 20 | 32 | 40.5% | ||||||
Vermin Supreme | 11 | 11.3% | - 11 | Eliminated | |||||||
Adam Kokesh | 6 | 6.2% | - 6 | Eliminated | |||||||
John Monds | 6 | 6.2% | - 6 | Eliminated | |||||||
Lincoln Chafee | 6 | 6.2% | - 6 | Eliminated | |||||||
Mark Whitney | 6 | 6.2% | - 6 | Eliminated | |||||||
N.O.T.A. | 4 | 4.1% | - 4 | Eliminated | |||||||
Arvin Vohra | 2 | 2.1% | - 2 | Eliminated | |||||||
Ken Armstrong | 2 | 2.1% | - 2 | Eliminated | |||||||
Sam Robb | 2 | 2.1% | - 2 | Eliminated | |||||||
Keenan Wallace Dunham | 1 | 1.0% | - 1 | Eliminated | |||||||
Sorinne Ardeleanu | 1 | 1.0% | - 1 | Eliminated | |||||||
Abrahamson [sic] (write-in) | 1 | 1.0% | - 1 | Eliminated | |||||||
Dan "Taxation is Theft" Behrman | 0 | 0.0% | Eliminated | ||||||||
Jedi Hill | 0 | 0.0% | Eliminated | ||||||||
Souraya Faas | 0 | 0.0% | Eliminated | ||||||||
Steven Richey | 0 | 0.0% | Eliminated | ||||||||
Round 1 Total | 97 | 100.0% | Round 7 Total | 79 | 100.0% |
Candidate | Round 1 | Round 2 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | |||||||
Jeff Wood | 32 | 40.0% | + 0 | 32 | 52.5% | ||||||
Spike Cohen | 29 | 36.3% | + 0 | 29 | 47.5% | ||||||
NOTA | 19 | 23.8% | - 19 | Eliminated | |||||||
Round 1 Total | 80 | 100.0% | Round 2 Total | 61 | 100.0% |
General election
[edit]Final predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking |
---|---|
The Cook Political Report[20] | Lean D |
Inside Elections[21] | Likely D |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] | Likely D |
Politico[23] | Lean D |
RCP[24] | Tossup |
Niskanen[25] | Likely D |
CNN[26] | Lean D |
The Economist[27] | Likely D |
CBS News[28] | Lean D |
270towin[29] | Likely D |
ABC News[30] | Lean D |
NPR[31] | Lean D |
NBC News[32] | Lean D |
FiveThirtyEight[33] | Solid D |
Polling
[edit]Graphical summary
Aggregate polls
[edit]Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden DFL |
Donald J. Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [e] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
270 to Win[34] | October 27 – November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 51.6% | 41.8% | 6.6% | Biden +9.8 |
Real Clear Politics[35] | October 12–27, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 48.0% | 43.7% | 8.3% | Biden +4.3 |
FiveThirtyEight[36] | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 51.8% | 42.7% | 5.5% | Biden +9.2 |
Average | 50.5% | 42.7% | 6.8% | Biden +7.8 |
Polls
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
Donald J. Trump Republican |
Joe Biden DFL |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Green |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyMonkey/Axios[37] | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 3,031 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 41%[g] | 56% | - | - | – | – |
Research Co.[38] | Oct 31 – Nov 1, 2020 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 45% | 54% | - | - | 1%[h] | 4% |
Data for Progress[39] | Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 | 1,259 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 43% | 51% | 4% | 2% | 1%[i] | – |
Swayable[40] | Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020 | 466 (LV) | ± 5.9% | 43% | 53% | 4% | 0% | – | – |
Morning Consult[41] | Oct 22–31, 2020 | 883 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
Public Policy Polling[42] | Oct 29–30, 2020 | 770 (V) | – | 43% | 54% | - | - | 2%[j] | 1% |
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart[43] | Oct 25–30, 2020 | 1,138 (LV) | – | 44% | 53% | - | - | 3%[k] | – |
St. Cloud State University[44] | Oct 10–29, 2020 | 372 (A) | ± 6.7% | 39% | 54% | - | - | – | – |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[37] | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 5,498 (LV) | – | 42% | 55% | - | - | – | – |
SurveyUSA/KSTP/ABC6 News[45] | Oct 23–27, 2020 | 649 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 42% | 47% | - | - | 5%[l] | 6% |
Gravis Marketing[46] | Oct 24–26, 2020 | 657 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 39% | 53% | - | - | – | 8% |
Trafalgar Group[47] | Oct 24–25, 2020 | 1,065 (LV) | ± 2.92% | 45% | 48% | 2% | - | 4%[m] | 1% |
Civiqs/Daily Kos[48] | Oct 17–20, 2020 | 840 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 53% | - | - | 3%[n] | 1% |
SurveyUSA/KSTP[49] | Oct 16–20, 2020 | 625 (LV) | ± 5% | 42% | 48% | - | - | – | – |
Morning Consult[41] | Oct 11–20, 2020 | 864 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 42% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
Change Research/MinnPost[50] | Oct 12–15, 2020[o] | 1,021 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 49% | 2% | 0% | 2%[p] | 2% |
David Binder Research/Focus on Rural America[51] | Oct 10–13, 2020 | 200 (LV) | – | 41% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
Morning Consult[52] | Oct 2–11, 2020 | 898 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
SurveyUSA/ABC6 News[53] | Oct 1–6, 2020 | 929 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 40% | 47% | - | - | 3%[q] | 10% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[37] | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 2,808 (LV) | – | 43% | 55% | - | - | – | 2% |
Suffolk University[54] | Sep 20–24, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 47% | 2% | 0% | 4%[r] | 6% |
Mason-Dixon/[[StarTribune /MPR News/KARE 11]][55] |
Sep 21–23, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 48% | - | - | 2% | 8% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[56] | Sep 12–17, 2020 | 718 (LV) | ± 3.66% | 42% | 51% | 0% | 0% | 1%[s] | 5% |
ABC/Washington Post[57] | Sep 8–13, 2020 | 615 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 41% | 57% | - | - | 1%[t] | 1% |
Morning Consult[58] | Sep 4–13, 2020 | 643 (LV) | ± 4% | 44%[u] | 48% | - | - | 2%[j] | 6% |
YouGov/CBS[59] | Sep 9–11, 2020 | 1,087 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 41% | 50% | - | - | 2%[v] | 6% |
Siena College/NYT Upshot[60] | Sep 8–10, 2020 | 814 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 41% | 50% | 2% | 1% | 0%[w] | 5%[x] |
SurveyUSA[61] | Sep 4–7, 2020 | 553 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 40% | 49% | - | - | 4%[y] | 7% |
Morning Consult[62] | Aug 29 – Sep 7, 2020 | 649 (LV) | ± (2%–4%) | 44%[u] | 49% | - | - | – | – |
PPP[63] | Sep 3–4, 2020 | 877 (V) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 52% | - | - | 3%[n] | 1% |
Harper Polling/Jason Lewis[64][A] | Aug 30 – Sep 1, 2020 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.38% | 45% | 48% | – | – | – | 4% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[37] | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 1,939 (LV) | – | 43% | 56% | - | - | – | 1% |
Morning Consult[65] | Aug 21–30, 2020 | 647 (LV) | ± (2%–4%) | 43% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
Trafalgar Group[66] | Aug 15–18, 2020 | 1,141 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 47% | 4% | - | 1%[z] | 2% |
Morning Consult[65] | Aug 7–16, 2020 | 615 (LV) | ± (2%–4%) | 42% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
Emerson College[67] | Aug 8–10, 2020 | 733 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 49%[aa] | 51% | - | - | – | – |
David Binder Research[68] | Jul 30–31, 2020 | 200 (LV) | – | 36% | 54% | - | - | – | – |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[37] | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 2,288 (LV) | – | 47% | 51% | - | - | – | 2% |
Morning Consult[69] | Jul 17–26, 2020 | 662 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 47% | - | - | – | – |
Trafalgar Group[70] | Jul 23–25, 2020 | 1,129 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 49% | 2% | - | 3%[ab] | 2% |
Public Policy Polling/Giffords[71][B] | Jul 22–23, 2020 | 1,218 (V) | ± 3.2% | 42% | 52% | - | - | – | 6% |
FOX News[72] | Jul 18–20, 2020 | 776 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 51% | - | - | 6%[ac] | 6% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[37] | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 860 (LV) | – | 42% | 57% | - | - | – | 1% |
Gravis Marketing[73] | Jun 19, 2020 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42%[ad] | 58%[ae] | - | - | – | – |
Morning Consult[58] | May 27– Jun 5, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 45% | 48% | - | - | – | – |
Harper Polling/Jason Lewis[64][A] | May 26–28, 2020 | 510 (LV) | – | 42% | 50% | – | – | – | 8% |
Morning Consult[69] | May 17–26, 2020 | 647 (LV) | – | 42% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
Mason-Dixon/[[StarTribune /MPR News/KARE 11]][74] |
May 18–20, 2020 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 49% | - | - | – | 7% |
Morning Consult[58] | May 7–16, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 38% | 55% | - | - | – | – |
Mason-Dixon/StarTribune[75] | Oct 14–16, 2019 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 50% | - | - | – | 12% |
Former candidates
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---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Donald J. Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar
Donald J. Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald J. Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
|
Hypothetical polling
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---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
with Donald J. Trump and generic Democrat
with Donald J. Trump, generic Democrat, and Howard Schultz
|
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic (DFL) | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
1,717,077 | 52.40% | +5.96% | |
Republican | Donald J. Trump Michael R. Pence |
1,484,065 | 45.28% | +0.35% | |
Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
34,976 | 1.07% | −2.77% | |
Green | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker |
10,033 | 0.31% | −0.95% | |
Independent | Kanye West Michelle Tidball |
7,940 | 0.24% | − | |
Independent | Brock Pierce Karla Ballard |
5,651 | 0.17% | − | |
Alliance | Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson |
5,611 | 0.17% | − | |
Socialism and Liberation | Gloria La Riva Sunil Freeman |
1,210 | 0.04% | − | |
Socialist Workers | Alyson Kennedy Malcolm Jarrett |
643 | 0.02% | −0.04% | |
Write-in | 9,965 | 0.3% | -0.6% | ||
Total votes | 3,277,171 | 100% | |||
Democratic (DFL) hold |
By county
[edit]County | Joe Biden DFL |
Donald J. Trump Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
# | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
Aitkin | 3,607 | 35.98% | 6,258 | 62.42% | 160 | 1.60% | -2,651 | -26.44% | 10,025 |
Anoka | 100,893 | 47.79% | 104,902 | 49.69% | 5,337 | 2.52% | -4,009 | -1.90% | 211,132 |
Becker | 6,589 | 33.96% | 12,438 | 64.11% | 374 | 1.93% | -5,849 | -30.15% | 19,401 |
Beltrami | 11,426 | 47.24% | 12,188 | 50.39% | 575 | 2.37% | -762 | -3.15% | 24,189 |
Benton | 7,280 | 32.70% | 14,382 | 64.61% | 598 | 2.69% | -7,102 | -31.91% | 22,260 |
Big Stone | 1,053 | 35.41% | 1,863 | 62.64% | 58 | 1.95% | -810 | -27.23% | 2,974 |
Blue Earth | 18,330 | 50.84% | 16,731 | 46.41% | 990 | 2.75% | 1,599 | 4.43% | 36,051 |
Brown | 4,753 | 32.48% | 9,552 | 65.27% | 330 | 2.25% | -4,799 | -32.79% | 14,635 |
Carlton | 10,098 | 49.58% | 9,791 | 48.07% | 480 | 2.35% | 307 | 1.51% | 20,369 |
Carver | 30,774 | 46.37% | 34,009 | 51.25% | 1,578 | 2.38% | -3,235 | -4.88% | 66,361 |
Cass | 6,342 | 34.68% | 11,620 | 63.54% | 327 | 1.78% | -5,278 | -28.86% | 18,289 |
Chippewa | 2,226 | 33.67% | 4,250 | 64.29% | 135 | 2.04% | -2,024 | -30.62% | 6,611 |
Chisago | 11,806 | 34.15% | 21,916 | 63.40% | 848 | 2.45% | -10,110 | -29.25% | 34,570 |
Clay | 16,357 | 50.74% | 15,043 | 46.66% | 839 | 2.60% | 1,314 | 4.08% | 32,239 |
Clearwater | 1,260 | 26.76% | 3,372 | 71.62% | 76 | 1.62% | -2,112 | -44.86% | 4,708 |
Cook | 2,496 | 65.58% | 1,203 | 31.61% | 107 | 2.81% | 1,293 | 33.97% | 3,806 |
Cottonwood | 1,834 | 30.03% | 4,165 | 68.20% | 108 | 1.77% | -2,331 | -38.17% | 6,107 |
Crow Wing | 13,726 | 34.17% | 25,676 | 63.91% | 771 | 1.92% | -11,950 | -29.74% | 40,173 |
Dakota | 146,155 | 55.73% | 109,638 | 41.81% | 6,466 | 2.46% | 36,517 | 13.92% | 262,259 |
Dodge | 4,079 | 33.47% | 7,783 | 63.86% | 325 | 2.67% | -3,704 | -30.39% | 12,187 |
Douglas | 7,868 | 32.56% | 15,799 | 65.38% | 498 | 2.06% | -7,931 | -32.82% | 24,165 |
Faribault | 2,531 | 31.98% | 5,191 | 65.59% | 192 | 2.43% | -2,660 | -33.61% | 7,914 |
Fillmore | 4,551 | 37.48% | 7,301 | 60.14% | 289 | 2.38% | -2,750 | -22.66% | 12,141 |
Freeborn | 6,889 | 40.96% | 9,578 | 56.95% | 351 | 2.09% | -2,689 | -15.99% | 16,818 |
Goodhue | 11,806 | 41.23% | 16,052 | 56.06% | 778 | 2.71% | -4,246 | -14.83% | 28,636 |
Grant | 1,300 | 35.58% | 2,269 | 62.10% | 85 | 2.32% | -969 | -26.52% | 3,654 |
Hennepin | 532,623 | 70.46% | 205,973 | 27.25% | 17,373 | 2.29% | 326,650 | 43.21% | 755,969 |
Houston | 4,853 | 42.42% | 6,334 | 55.37% | 253 | 2.21% | -1,481 | -12.95% | 11,440 |
Hubbard | 4,462 | 34.42% | 8,202 | 63.26% | 301 | 2.32% | -3,740 | -28.84% | 12,965 |
Isanti | 7,138 | 29.45% | 16,491 | 68.05% | 606 | 2.50% | -9,353 | -38.60% | 24,235 |
Itasca | 10,786 | 40.61% | 15,239 | 57.37% | 536 | 2.02% | -4,453 | -16.76% | 26,561 |
Jackson | 1,745 | 29.99% | 3,948 | 67.85% | 126 | 2.16% | -2,203 | -37.86% | 5,819 |
Kanabec | 2,774 | 30.02% | 6,278 | 67.93% | 190 | 2.05% | -3,504 | -37.91% | 9,242 |
Kandiyohi | 8,440 | 36.12% | 14,437 | 61.78% | 490 | 2.10% | -5,997 | -25.66% | 23,367 |
Kittson | 1,006 | 38.12% | 1,546 | 58.58% | 87 | 3.30% | -540 | -20.46% | 2,639 |
Koochiching | 2,659 | 38.41% | 4,131 | 59.68% | 132 | 1.91% | -1,472 | -21.27% | 6,922 |
Lac Qui Parle | 1,446 | 35.79% | 2,528 | 62.57% | 66 | 1.64% | -1,082 | -26.78% | 4,040 |
Lake | 3,647 | 50.64% | 3,393 | 47.11% | 162 | 2.25% | 254 | 3.53% | 7,202 |
Lake of the Woods | 671 | 27.87% | 1,704 | 70.76% | 33 | 1.37% | -1,033 | -42.89% | 2,408 |
Le Sueur | 5,672 | 33.73% | 10,775 | 64.07% | 371 | 2.20% | -5,103 | -30.34% | 16,818 |
Lincoln | 937 | 30.08% | 2,121 | 68.09% | 57 | 1.83% | -1,184 | -38.01% | 3,115 |
Lyon | 4,634 | 35.94% | 7,979 | 61.89% | 280 | 2.17% | -3,345 | -25.95% | 12,893 |
McLeod | 6,413 | 30.64% | 13,986 | 66.81% | 534 | 2.55% | -7,573 | -36.17% | 20,933 |
Mahnomen | 1,112 | 48.26% | 1,142 | 49.57% | 50 | 2.17% | -30 | -1.31% | 2,304 |
Marshall | 1,295 | 25.33% | 3,721 | 72.78% | 97 | 1.89% | -2,426 | -47.45% | 5,113 |
Martin | 3,305 | 30.02% | 7,480 | 67.94% | 224 | 2.04% | -4,175 | -37.72% | 11,009 |
Meeker | 3,867 | 28.58% | 9,359 | 69.18% | 303 | 2.24% | -5,492 | -40.60% | 13,529 |
Mille Lacs | 4,404 | 29.98% | 9,952 | 67.75% | 333 | 2.27% | -5,548 | -37.77% | 14,689 |
Morrison | 4,367 | 22.33% | 14,821 | 75.78% | 370 | 1.89% | -10,454 | -53.45% | 19,558 |
Mower | 8,899 | 46.00% | 10,025 | 51.82% | 421 | 2.18% | -1,126 | -5.82% | 19,345 |
Murray | 1,449 | 29.60% | 3,363 | 68.69% | 84 | 1.71% | -1,914 | -39.09% | 4,896 |
Nicollet | 9,622 | 50.31% | 9,018 | 47.15% | 485 | 2.54% | 604 | 3.16% | 19,125 |
Nobles | 2,933 | 33.65% | 5,600 | 64.26% | 182 | 2.09% | -2,667 | -30.61% | 8,715 |
Norman | 1,404 | 40.80% | 1,953 | 56.76% | 84 | 2.44% | -549 | -15.96% | 3,441 |
Olmsted | 49,491 | 54.16% | 39,692 | 43.43% | 2,202 | 2.41% | 9,799 | 10.73% | 91,385 |
Otter Tail | 11,958 | 32.85% | 23,800 | 65.39% | 641 | 1.76% | -11,842 | -32.54% | 36,399 |
Pennington | 2,568 | 35.29% | 4,532 | 62.28% | 177 | 2.43% | -1,964 | -26.99% | 7,277 |
Pine | 5,419 | 33.87% | 10,256 | 64.10% | 326 | 2.03% | -4,837 | -30.23% | 16,001 |
Pipestone | 1,306 | 26.44% | 3,553 | 71.92% | 81 | 1.64% | -2,247 | -45.48% | 4,940 |
Polk | 5,439 | 34.88% | 9,865 | 63.26% | 290 | 1.86% | -4,426 | -28.38% | 15,594 |
Pope | 2,477 | 35.27% | 4,417 | 62.90% | 128 | 1.83% | -1,940 | -27.63% | 7,022 |
Ramsey | 211,620 | 71.50% | 77,376 | 26.14% | 6,981 | 2.36% | 134,244 | 45.36% | 295,977 |
Red Lake | 691 | 31.47% | 1,454 | 66.21% | 51 | 2.32% | -763 | -34.74% | 2,196 |
Redwood | 2,355 | 28.43% | 5,771 | 69.66% | 158 | 1.91% | -3,416 | -41.23% | 8,284 |
Renville | 2,496 | 30.71% | 5,467 | 67.26% | 165 | 2.03% | -2,971 | -36.55% | 8,128 |
Rice | 17,402 | 48.76% | 17,464 | 48.94% | 820 | 2.30% | -62 | -0.18% | 35,686 |
Rock | 1,556 | 29.69% | 3,583 | 68.38% | 101 | 1.93% | -2,027 | -38.69% | 5,240 |
Roseau | 2,188 | 25.98% | 6,065 | 72.02% | 168 | 2.00% | -3,877 | -46.04% | 8,421 |
St. Louis | 67,704 | 56.64% | 49,017 | 41.01% | 2,810 | 2.35% | 18,687 | 15.63% | 119,531 |
Scott | 40,040 | 45.52% | 45,872 | 52.15% | 2,053 | 2.33% | -5,832 | -6.63% | 87,965 |
Sherburne | 18,065 | 32.48% | 36,222 | 65.13% | 1,325 | 2.39% | -18,157 | -32.65% | 55,612 |
Sibley | 2,417 | 28.60% | 5,864 | 69.38% | 171 | 2.02% | -3,447 | -40.78% | 8,452 |
Stearns | 31,879 | 37.58% | 50,959 | 60.07% | 1,997 | 2.35% | -19,080 | -22.49% | 84,835 |
Steele | 7,917 | 37.47% | 12,656 | 59.90% | 555 | 2.63% | -4,739 | -22.43% | 21,128 |
Stevens | 1,922 | 37.80% | 3,044 | 59.86% | 119 | 2.34% | -1,122 | -22.06% | 5,085 |
Swift | 1,784 | 34.35% | 3,316 | 63.86% | 93 | 1.79% | -1,532 | -29.51% | 5,193 |
Todd | 3,286 | 24.79% | 9,753 | 73.57% | 218 | 1.64% | -6,467 | -48.78% | 13,257 |
Traverse | 661 | 35.46% | 1,172 | 62.88% | 31 | 1.66% | -511 | -27.42% | 1,864 |
Wabasha | 4,696 | 35.78% | 8,153 | 62.13% | 274 | 2.09% | -3,457 | -26.35% | 13,123 |
Wadena | 2,023 | 26.35% | 5,520 | 71.90% | 134 | 1.75% | -3,497 | -45.55% | 7,677 |
Waseca | 3,496 | 33.65% | 6,624 | 63.76% | 269 | 2.59% | -3,128 | -30.11% | 10,389 |
Washington | 89,165 | 53.46% | 73,764 | 44.23% | 3,857 | 2.31% | 15,401 | 9.23% | 166,786 |
Watonwan | 1,987 | 38.20% | 3,103 | 59.66% | 111 | 2.14% | -1,116 | -21.46% | 5,201 |
Wilkin | 1,026 | 29.91% | 2,328 | 67.87% | 76 | 2.22% | -1,302 | -37.96% | 3,430 |
Winona | 13,333 | 49.07% | 13,227 | 48.68% | 613 | 2.25% | 106 | 0.39% | 27,173 |
Wright | 28,430 | 34.49% | 51,973 | 63.05% | 2,023 | 2.46% | -23,543 | -28.56% | 82,426 |
Yellow Medicine | 1,688 | 30.54% | 3,734 | 67.55% | 106 | 1.91% | -2,046 | -37.01% | 5,528 |
Totals | 1,717,077 | 52.40% | 1,484,065 | 45.28% | 76,029 | 2.32% | 233,012 | 7.12% | 3,277,171 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Blue Earth (largest municipality: Mankato)
- Clay (largest municipality: Moorhead)
- Nicollet (largest municipality: North Mankato)
- Winona (largest municipality: Winona)
By congressional district
[edit]Biden and Trump each won four of the state's eight congressional districts. Neither won any district in Minnesota represented by the other party in the House of Representatives, although incumbent Democrat Collin Peterson was unseated in the Trump-won 7th district.
District | Biden | Trump | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 43.9% | 54% | Jim Hagedorn |
2nd | 52.4% | 45.5% | Angie Craig |
3rd | 58.7% | 39.4% | Dean Phillips |
4th | 67.6% | 30.5% | Betty McCollum |
5th | 80.3% | 17.7% | Ilhan Omar |
6th | 38.8% | 58% | Tom Emmer |
7th | 34.4% | 63.8% | Collin Peterson |
Michelle Fischbach | |||
8th | 41.7% | 56.3% | Pete Stauber |
Analysis
[edit]After narrowly losing the state in 2016, the Trump campaign identified Minnesota as an offensive target in 2020; polls of Minnesota voters throughout the campaign, however, showed Biden leading. Throughout the summer leading up to the election, the Twin Cities metropolitan area was the epicenter of Black Lives Matter protests, in light of the murder of George Floyd having taken place in Minneapolis.
Trump attempted to court white suburban Minnesotans with law and order messaging by using images of rioting in campaign ads and claiming that Biden would "destroy suburbia". These efforts failed, as Biden massively improved on Hillary Clinton's performance in the Twin Cities suburbs. With his resounding victories in Hennepin and Ramsey counties, Biden became the first Democrat to win over 70% of the vote in any Minnesota county since Minnesotan Hubert Humphrey did in Carlton, Lake, and St. Louis Counties (the core of the heavily unionized Iron Range region) in 1968.
Voter demographics
[edit]Demographic subgroup | Biden | Trump | No Answer |
% of Voters |
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | ||||
Democrat | 95 | 4 | N/A | 35 |
Republican | 8 | 91 | N/A | 34 |
Independent | 55 | 40 | N/A | 31 |
Gender | ||||
Men | 47 | 50 | 3 | 46 |
Women | 58 | 41 | 1 | 54 |
Race | ||||
White | 51 | 47 | 2 | 87 |
Black | 77 | 21 | 2 | 4 |
Latino | 60 | 38 | 2 | 4 |
Asian | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
Other | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3 |
Gender by race/ethnicity | ||||
White men | 44 | 53 | 3 | 45 |
White women | 57 | 42 | 1 | 55 |
Black men | 69 | 30 | 1 | 6 |
Black women | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
Latino men (of any race) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3 |
Latino women (of any race) | 63 | 35 | 2 | 4 |
All other races | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3 |
Marital status | ||||
Married | 49 | 50 | 1 | 59 |
Not married | 58 | 39 | 3 | 41 |
Age | ||||
18–24 years old | 66 | 29 | N/A | 8 |
25–29 years old | 64 | 30 | N/A | 6 |
30–39 years old | 54 | 43 | 3 | 15 |
40–49 years old | 52 | 47 | 1 | 13 |
50–64 years old | 51 | 48 | N/A | 29 |
65 and older | 48 | 51 | 1 | 30 |
Sexual orientation | ||||
LGBT | N/A | N/A | N/A | 5 |
Heterosexual | 51 | 47 | 2 | 95 |
Education | ||||
College graduate | 65 | 34 | N/A | 43 |
No college degree | 45 | 53 | 1 | 57 |
Education by race/ethnicity | ||||
White college graduates | 62 | 35 | 3 | 39 |
White no college degree | 42 | 57 | N/A | 48 |
Non-white college graduates | 73 | 25 | 3 | 4 |
Non-white no college degree | 64 | 32 | 4 | 9 |
Income | ||||
Under $30,000 | 58 | 40 | 2 | 16 |
$30,000–$49,999 | 55 | 39 | 6 | 19 |
Over $200,000 | 58 | 42 | N/A | 9 |
Racism in the U.S is | ||||
The most important problem | 85 | 14 | 1 | 9 |
An important problem | 62 | 35 | 3 | 65 |
Area Type | ||||
Urban | 68 | 29 | 1 | 44 |
Suburban | 42 | 56 | 2 | 34 |
Rural | 46 | 52 | 2 | 16 |
Source: CNN[83] |
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Minnesota
- 2020 United States presidential election
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 United States elections
- 2020 Minnesota elections
Notes
[edit]Partisan clients
- ^ a b c Candidate withdrew shortly before the primary when absentee voting had already begun.
- ^ a b Candidate withdrew after the New Hampshire primary when absentee voting had already begun.
- ^ Candidate withdrew during the first days of absentee voting.
- ^ Candidate withdrew after in-person absentee voting started on January 17, 2020.
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
- ^ a b "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 3%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 5%
- ^ West (B) with 3%; "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ a b "Someone else" with 3%
- ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- ^ "Another Third Party Candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
- ^ "Refused" with 2%; Fuente (A), "Other" and West (B) with 1%; Pierce (I) with 0%; Kennedy (SWP) and La Riva (PSOL) with no voters
- ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
- ^ "Neither" with 1%; "Other" and would not vote with 0%
- ^ a b Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- ^ "Someone else/third party" with 2%
- ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
- ^ Includes "Refused"
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 4%
- ^ "Another Party Candidate" with 1%
- ^ Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ "Another Party Candidate"
- ^ "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 1%
- ^ Including undecided voters who lean towards Trump
- ^ Including undecided voters who lean towards Biden
- ^ For Howard Schultz as independent
- ^ a b Listed as "unsure/other/refused"
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Alliance for a Better Minnesota
References
[edit]- ^ State Canvassing Board Certifies Results of 2020 General Election The total number of voters was 3,292,997. That means 79.96 percent of eligible Minnesotans participated in the 2020 General Election. That is the highest percentage turnout since 1956, and the highest total number of voters ever.
- ^ "Minnesota Election Results 2020". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
- ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Trump got more votes in Minnesota in 2020 than he did in 2016. But Biden got way more than Clinton did". MinnPost. November 4, 2020. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
- ^ "Despite attention, Trump gained little ground on Iron Range". The Star Tribune. November 4, 2020. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
- ^ "Minnesota Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
- ^ "State Canvassing Board Certificate - 2020 Presidential Nomination Primary". Minnesota State Canvassing Board. Retrieved March 19, 2020.
- ^ "Minnesota Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved March 19, 2020.
- ^ Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
- ^ Cillizza, Chris; Enten, Harry (September 13, 2018). "There's a new No. 1 among 2020 Democrats". CNN.
- ^ Burke, Michael (November 25, 2018). "Klobuchar says she is still considering 2020 run". The Hill.
- ^ Smith, Mitch; Lerer, Lisa (February 10, 2019). "Amy Klobuchar Enters 2020 Presidential Race". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
- ^ Kiersz, Andy; Hickey, Walt (March 4, 2020). "Joe Biden wins Minnesota primary". Business Insider.
- ^ "State Canvassing Board Certificate 2020 Presidential Nomination Primary". Minnesota. Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State. March 10, 2020. Archived from the original on March 29, 2020. Retrieved April 2, 2020.
- ^ "Delegate Tracker". Associated Press. August 17, 2020. Retrieved November 24, 2022.
- ^ "We had ranked choice voting for our caucus, but a lot of people are interested in our first choice vote totals. This is how it broke down statewide". Facebook. Libertarian Party of Minnesota. February 26, 2020.
- ^ a b Galvan, Jill (February 26, 2020). "Libertarian 2020 Caucus Full Results by Jill Galvan". Libertarian Party of Minnesota. Retrieved February 29, 2020.
- ^ "We had ranked choice voting for our caucus, but a lot of people are interested in our first choice vote totals. This is how it broke down statewide". February 26, 2020 – via Facebook.com.
- ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
- ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
- ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
- ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
- ^ 270 to Win
- ^ Real Clear Politics
- ^ FiveThirtyEight
- ^ a b c d e f SurveyMonkey/Axios
- ^ Research Co.
- ^ Data for Progress
- ^ Swayable Archived November 27, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ a b Morning Consult
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Targoz Market Research/PollSmart
- ^ St. Cloud State University
- ^ SurveyUSA/KSTP/ABC6 News Archived October 31, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Gravis Marketing
- ^ Trafalgar Group
- ^ Civiqs/Daily Kos
- ^ SurveyUSA/KSTP
- ^ Change Research/MinnPost
- ^ David Binder Research/Focus on Rural America
- ^ Morning Consult
- ^ SurveyUSA/ABC6 News Archived October 11, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Suffolk University
- ^ Mason-Dixon/StarTribune
/MPR News/KARE 11 - ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
- ^ ABC/Washington Post
- ^ a b c Morning Consult
- ^ YouGov/CBS
- ^ Siena College/NYT Upshot
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ Morning Consult
- ^ PPP
- ^ a b Harper Polling/Jason Lewis
- ^ a b Morning Consult
- ^ Trafalgar Group
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ David Binder Research
- ^ a b Morning Consult
- ^ Trafalgar Group
- ^ Public Policy Polling/Giffords Archived July 31, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ FOX News
- ^ Gravis Marketing
- ^ Mason-Dixon/StarTribune
/MPR News/KARE 11 - ^ a b Mason-Dixon/StarTribune
- ^ a b Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc./StarTribune
- ^ a b "DFM Research" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on March 6, 2019. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
- ^ KFF/Cook Political Report
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ "State of Minnesota Canvassing Report" (PDF). Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State. November 25, 2020. Archived (PDF) from the original on November 25, 2020. Retrieved November 25, 2020.
- ^ "Official List of Candidates". Minnesota Secretary of State. Retrieved September 17, 2020.
- ^ "Minnesota 2020 President Exit Polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved December 14, 2020.
Further reading
[edit]- Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020,
Minnesota
- David Weigel; Lauren Tierney (September 13, 2020), "The five political states of Minnesota", Washingtonpost.com, archived from the original on October 4, 2020
External links
[edit]- Elections & Voting - Minnesota Secretary of State
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Minnesota", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Minnesota: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Minnesota". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Minnesota at Ballotpedia