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The 2024 United States presidential election in Illinois is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Illinois voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Illinois has 19 electoral votes in the Electoral College this election, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[1]
Illinois is a strongly blue state in the Great Lakes region anchored by Chicago, with the sparsely populated southern region of the state being culturally influenced by the Upper South and Bible Belt. The state has voted for the Democratic candidate in every presidential election beginning in 1992 (doing so by at least 10% each time), including voting for Senator Barack Obama from Illinois in 2008 and 2012 and Chicago-born Hillary Clinton in 2016. This will also be the first election since 1868 in which Illinois will not have 20 or more electoral votes.
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The Illinois Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Florida,[a] Kansas, and Ohio.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 739,646 | 91.5% | 147 | 147 | |
| Marianne Williamson | 28,777 | 3.6% | |||
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 25,615 | 3.2% | |||
| Frankie Lozada (withdrawn) | 14,513 | 1.8% | |||
| Total: | 808,551 | 100.00% | 147 | 27 | 174 |
Republican primary
[edit]The Illinois Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Florida, and Ohio.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 479,556 | 80.50% | 64 | 0 | 64 |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 86,278 | 14.48% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 16,990 | 2.85% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 9,758 | 1.64% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 3,114 | 0.52% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 595,696 | 100.00% | 64 | 0 | 64 |
General election
[edit]The 2024 Democratic National Convention is scheduled to happen in Chicago between August 19 and August 22nd.[4] This year will mark the first time the Democratic Party hosted it in Chicago since 1996.[5] Chicago is commonly selected for presidential nominating conventions due to its location and has hosted presidential nominating conventions for the Democrats 11 times up until the 2024 convention and 14 times by the Republicans.[6]
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[7] | Solid D | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[8] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] | Safe D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[10] | Safe D | June 13, 2024 |
| CNalysis[11] | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[12] | Solid D | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[13] | Lean D | July 19, 2024 |
| 538[14] | Likely D | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[15] | Likely D | June 26, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cor Strategies[16] | August 24–27, 2023 | 811 (RV) | – | 53% | 35% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[17] | October 1–4, 2023 | 468 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 43% | 34% | 23% |
| Cor Strategies[16] | August 24–27, 2023 | 811 (RV) | – | 55% | 35% | 10% |
| Emerson College[18] | October 20–24, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 37% | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[19] | October 10–11, 2022 | 770 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| Emerson College[20] | September 21–23, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 38% | 11% |
J. B. Pritzker vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
J. B. Pritzker Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[19] | October 10–11, 2022 | 770 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Illinois
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "Illinois Presidential Primary". AP News. June 14, 2024. Retrieved July 30, 2024.
- ^ "Illinois Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
- ^ Homan, Maya (August 12, 2024). "The 2024 Democratic National Convention kicks off next week. Here's what to expect". USA TODAY (Digital). Retrieved August 12, 2024.
- ^ Elving, Ron (August 12, 2024). "Chicago '68 recalls a Democratic convention and a political moment like no other". NPR (Digital). Retrieved August 12, 2024.
- ^ "Political Conventions in Chicago". Chicago History Museum. Retrieved August 12, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved June 14, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved July 19, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ a b Illinoisans Share Who They Support for President (Republican & Democrat Poll), retrieved September 2, 2023
- ^ Mumford, Camille (October 15, 2023). "Illinois 2024 Poll: Biden Holds Nine-Point Lead Over Trump". Emerson Polling.
- ^ "Emerson College".
- ^ a b "Sun-Times/WBEZ Poll: Illinois voters don't want Pritzker or Biden to run for president – but they'd take either over Trump". Chicago Sun-Times. October 17, 2022.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (September 28, 2022). "Illinois 2022: Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Sen. Tammy Duckworth in Strong Position in Re-election Bids". Emerson Polling.
