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According to the [[Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies]], as of January 2014, the cost of Arab Winter upheaval across the Arab World is some 800 billion USD.<ref name=rivlin>[http://www.dayan.org/sites/default/files/Iqtisadi%202014/Iqtisadi_Jan_14_ENG.pdf Dr. Rivlin, P. Dayan Research Center]</ref> Some 16 million people in Syria, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey are expected to require humanitarian assistance in 2014.<ref name=rivlin/>
According to the [[Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies]], as of January 2014, the cost of Arab Winter upheaval across the Arab World is some 800 billion USD.<ref name=rivlin>[http://www.dayan.org/sites/default/files/Iqtisadi%202014/Iqtisadi_Jan_14_ENG.pdf Dr. Rivlin, P. Dayan Research Center]</ref> Some 16 million people in Syria, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey are expected to require humanitarian assistance in 2014.<ref name=rivlin/>

==Arenas==
{{Multiple issues|section=yes|
{{Original research|section|discuss=Talk:Arab Winter#Arenas section|date=October 2014}}
{{Synthesis|section|date=November 2014}}}}
===ISIL conflict===
{{further|Spillover of the Syrian Civil War}}
{|class="wikitable sortable"
|-
! scope="col"| Country
! scope="col"| Date started
! scope="col"| Status
! scope="col" class="unsortable"| Outcome
! scope="col"| Death toll
! scope="col"| Situation
|-
|{{flag|Iraq}}
|{{dts|format=dmy|2011|12|18}}
|Ongoing
|<nowiki></nowiki>
*Spillover violence from the [[Syrian Civil War]] leading to an ISIL invasion.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.thenation.com/blog/180197/iraq-syria-civil-war-challenges-both-us-and-iran|title=The Iraq-Syria Civil War Challenges Both the US and Iran|publisher=|accessdate=25 December 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/iraq-war-on-terror/rise-of-isis/what-a-pledge-of-allegiance-to-isis-means/|title=What a Pledge of Allegiance to ISIS Means|work=FRONTLINE|accessdate=25 December 2014}}</ref>
*[[Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant]] (ISIL) [[Northern Iraq offensive (June 2014)|captures]] [[Mosul]] and [[Tikrit]] among other cities in June 2014<ref>{{cite web|url=http://time.com/2857751/iraq-tikrit-baghdad-isis-mosul/|title=Islamist Insurgents Seize Saddam's Hometown of Tikrit, Iraq|author=Mirren Gidda|work=TIME.com|accessdate=25 December 2014}}</ref> and declares a new caliphate.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://theweek.com/article/index/269340/how-isis-sells-women-and-children|title=How ISIS sells women and children|work=The Week|accessdate=25 December 2014}}</ref>
*Ethnic cleansing and [[Persecution of Assyrians by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant|persecution of Assyrians]],[[Persecution of Yazidis by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant|Yazidis]], and mass executions of [[Shia Muslims]] by ISIL.<ref>{{cite web|title = UN accuses Isil jihadists of 'ethnic cleansing'|url = http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/11055125/UN-accuses-Isil-jihadists-of-ethnic-cleansing.html|website = www.telegraph.co.uk|accessdate = 2014-12-04}}</ref>
*[[Northern Iraq offensive (August 2014)|ISIS advance]] on [[Iraqi Kurdistan|Kurdish regions]].
|{{ntsh|16027}} 23,138+
! style="color:#fff; background:#950000;"|[[Iraqi insurgency (2011–present)|<span style="color:white;">Ongoing civil war</span>]]
|-
|{{flag|Lebanon}}
|{{dts|format=dmy|2011|6|17}}
|Ongoing
|<nowiki></nowiki>
*Spillover violence from the [[Syrian Civil War]] between forces that support the Syrian government and others that oppose it.<ref name=":0">{{cite web|title = <nowiki>Lebanon Under Fire | Special | The Daily Star</nowiki>|url = http://www.dailystar.com.lb/special/lebanon-under-fire.htm|website = www.dailystar.com.lb|accessdate = 2014-12-04}}</ref>
*Full scale battles around the Bekka Valley and the town of Arsal.<ref name=":0" />
*Chaos in the government, including a prolonged presidential interregnum and the cancellation of Parliamentary elections.<ref name="Lebanese parliament delays June election, deepening drift">{{cite news|url=http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/31/us-lebanon-parliament-election-idUSBRE94U19N20130531|title=Lebanese parliament delays June election, deepening drift|publisher=Reuters|date=31 May 2013|accessdate=20 September 2014}}</ref>
|{{ntsh|457}} 457–474
! style="color:#fff; background:#004a80;"|[[Syrian Civil War spillover in Lebanon|<span style="display:none;">D </span><span style="color:white;">Civil disorder</span>]]
|-
|{{flag|Syria}}
|{{dts|format=dmy|2011|3|15|}}
|Ongoing
|<nowiki></nowiki>
*Large defections from the Syrian army and clashes between soldiers and defectors<ref name="Syrian army units 'clash over crackdown'">{{cite news|url=http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/04/2011428182333234775.html|title=Syrian army units 'clash over crackdown'|publisher=Al Jazeera|date=28 April 2011|accessdate=28 April 2011}}</ref>
*Formation of the [[Free Syrian Army]], who took controls of large swathes of land across Syria.<ref>{{cite news|title = Syria: Mapping the conflict|url = http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22798391|newspaper = BBC|date = 2014-11-11|accessdate = 2014-12-04}}</ref>
*Battles between the Syrian government's army and the [[Free Syrian Army]] in many governorates.
*Formation of the [[Syrian National Council]]<ref name="Syrian dissidents form national council">{{cite news|url=http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/08/23/2372099/syrian-dissidents-form-national.html|title=Syrian dissidents form national council|first=Ipek|last=Yezdani|work=The Miami Herald|date=23 August 2011|accessdate=24 August 2011}}{{Dead link|date=May 2014}}</ref>
*Syria suspended from the [[Arab League]]<ref>{{cite web|first1 = David|last1 = Batty|first2 = Jack Shenker in|last2 = Cairo|title = Syria suspended from Arab League|url = http://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/12/syria-suspended-arab-league|accessdate = 2014-12-04}}</ref>
*Several countries recognize [[National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces|Syrian]] [[government in exile]]<ref>{{cite web|title = <nowiki> Syrian opposition to form government in exile | Syrian Expert House</nowiki>|url = http://syrianexperthouse.org/archives/335|website = syrianexperthouse.org|accessdate = 2014-12-04}}</ref>
*Kurdish fighters enter the war by mid-2013<ref>{{cite web|title = Syria Kurds impose military service amid civil war|url = http://www.timesofisrael.com/syria-kurds-impose-military-service-amid-civil-war/|website = www.timesofisrael.com|accessdate = 2014-12-04}}</ref>
|{{ntsh|160000}} 191,000+<ref>{{cite news| url=http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Latest-News-Wires/2014/0822/UN-reports-Syria-conflict-death-toll-reaches-191-000-video | agency=Christian Science Monitor | title=Syria war death toll tops 191,000 | date=22 August 2014}}</ref>
! style="color:#fff; background:#950000;"|[[Syrian Civil War|<span style="color:white;">Ongoing civil war</span>]]
|-
|}

===North Africa===
{|class="wikitable sortable" style="font-size: 95%"
|-
! scope="col" style="width:10%;"| Country
! scope="col" style="width:10%;"| Date started
! scope="col" style="width:16%;"| Status
! scope="col" style="width:40%;" class="unsortable"| Outcome
! scope="col" style="width:10%;"| Death toll
! scope="col" style="width:14%;"| Situation
|-
|{{flag|Egypt}}
|{{dts|format=dmy|2012|11|22}}
|Government overthrown in July 2013. Ongoing unrest.
|<nowiki></nowiki>
'''Protests over the imposition of an Islamist-backed constitution by the [[Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt|Muslim Brotherhood]] and [[Mohamed Morsi]] lead to a [[2013 Egyptian coup d'état|coup d'état]].'''
*[[Egyptian presidential election, 2012|Democratic election]] held to replace Mubarak as the new president of Egypt; [[Mohamed Morsi]] elected and inaugurated<ref name="Mohammed Morsi sworn in as Egypt's president">{{cite news|url=http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57464345/mohammed-morsi-sworn-in-as-egypts-president/ |title=Mohammed Morsi sworn in as Egypt's president |publisher=CBS News |date=30 June 2012 |accessdate=2012-09-28}}</ref>
*Morsi removed by military in a [[2013 Egyptian coup d'état|coup d'état]] following a [[Egyptian Revolution of 2013|second revolution]] that came after months of [[2012–13 Egyptian protests|protests]].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/03/mohamed-morsi-egypt-second-revolution|title=Mohamed Morsi ousted in Egypt's second revolution in two years|date=4 July 2013|publisher=The Guardian}}</ref>
*Crackdown on the [[Muslim Brotherhood]] and other Islamists:
**Senior Islamist figures have been arrested and face trial.{{#tag:ref|See <ref>{{cite web|url=http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/76158/Egypt/Politics-/Prosecution-orders-arrest-of-leading-Brotherhood-m.aspx|title=Prosecution orders arrest of leading Brotherhood members|date=10 July 2013|publisher=Ahram Online}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/75721/Egypt/Politics-/Former-Brotherhood-supreme-guide-Akef-arrested-.aspx|title=Former Brotherhood supreme guide Akef arrested|date=4 July 2013|publisher=Ahram Online}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/75815/Egypt/Politics-/Muslim-Brotherhoods-secondman-ElShater-arrested-Se.aspx|title=Muslim Brotherhood's second-man El-Shater arrested: Security official|date=6 July 2013|publisher=Ahram Online}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/08/21/egypt-arrests-2-more-islamist-figures-hard-line-cleric-spokesman-for-muslim/|title=Egypt arrests 2 more Islamist figures: hard-line cleric, a spokesman for Muslim Brotherhood|date=21 August 2013|publisher=Fox News}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/egypt-police-arrest-muslim-brotherhood-chiefs-mohammed-elbeltagy-and-khaled-alazhari-8790828.html|title=Egypt: Police arrest Muslim Brotherhood chiefs Mohammed el-Beltagy and Khaled Al-Azhari|date=30 August 2013|publisher=The Independent|location=London}}</ref>}}
**[[August 2013 Rabaa Massacre|Violent dispersal]] of pro-Morsi sit-ins on August 14, 2013.
**A court bans all Muslim Brotherhood activities nationwide and its assets are confiscated.<ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/23/us-egypt-brotherhood-idUSBRE98M0QR20130923|title=Egyptian court bans Muslim Brotherhood|date=23 September 2013|publisher=Reuters}}</ref> The government eventually designates the group as a [[terrorist organization]] on December 25, 2013.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/90037.aspx|title=Egypt government declares Muslim Brotherhood 'terrorist group'|date=26 December 2013|publisher=Al-Ahram}}</ref>
**Sentencing to death of hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood supporters.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-26712124|title=Egypt court sentences 528 Morsi supporters to death|date=March 24, 2014|publisher=BBC}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://edition.cnn.com/2014/04/28/world/africa/egypt-politics/|title=Egypt court sentences hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood supporters to death|date=April 29, 2014|publisher=CNN}}</ref>
**[[Islamist unrest in Egypt (2013–present)|Ongoing Islamist unrest]] in response to the coup.
*[[Abdel Fattah el-Sisi]] becomes president following a [[Egyptian presidential election, 2014|second election]].
;[[Sinai insurgency]]:
*[[Egyptian Armed Forces]] launch anti-terror military operations in the Sinai due to increased attacks by insurgents since the ousting of Morsi.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/75792/Egypt/Politics-/Clashes-in-Sinai-over-Morsi-removal.aspx|title=Clashes in Sinai over Morsi removal|publisher=Ahram Online|date=5 July 2013|accessdate=5 July 2013}}</ref>
|{{ntsh|3500}} 3,500+{{#tag:ref|See <ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2013/06/02/anhri-releases-names-of-dead/|title=ANHRI releases names of dead|date=June 2, 2013|publisher=Daily News Egypt}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-21289729|title=Egypt protesters clash with police at presidential palace|date=February 1, 2013|publisher=BBC}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2013/jul/08/egypt-dead-injured-toll-so-far|title=Egypt's dead and injured: the toll so far|date=July 8, 2013|publisher=The Guardian}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://carnegieendowment.org/2014/03/24/egypt-s-unprecedented-instability-by-numbers/h5j3|title=Egypt’s Unprecedented Instability by the Numbers|date=March 24, 2014|publisher=Carnegie Endowment for International Peace}}</ref>}}
! style="color:#fff; background:#00112b;"|[[Egyptian Crisis (2011–present)|<span style="display:none;">E</span><span style="color:white;">Government overthrown</span>]]
|-
||{{flag|Libya}}
|{{dts|format=dmy|2011|8|23}}
|Ongoing violence
|<nowiki></nowiki>
*[[Inter-civil war violence in Libya|Low-level fighting and clashes]]<ref name="Fighters clash again near Tripoli, several dead">{{cite news|url=http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/12/us-libya-clashes-idUSTRE7AB0HU20111112|title=Fighters clash again near Tripoli, several dead|agency=Reuters|date=12 November 2011}}</ref> (between 2011 to May 2014)
*[[Libyan General National Congress election, 2012|Elections]] to a [[General National Congress]] on 7 July 2012.
*In May 2014, General [[Khalifa Haftar|Khalifa Belqasim Haftar]] launched [[2014 Libyan conflict|a large scale air and ground offensive]] codenamed ''Operation Dignity'' on Islamist militia groups.
*Conflict intensified in July 2014 and is driven out of Benghazi by [[Ansar al-Sharia (Benghazi)|Ansar al-Sharia]] militants, who declared the region an "Islamic emirate".<ref>{{cite web | url=http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/31/world/middleeast/libya-benghazi-march-protests-militias.html?_r=1 | title=Libya: Benghazi March Protests Militias | publisher=The New York Times | date=30 July 2014 | accessdate=16 August 2014 | author=Fahim, Kareem}}</ref>
*[[Derna, Libya]] area taken over by pro-ISIL militants, declaring the [[Wilayat al-Barqah (ISIL)|Barqah province]], loyal to the Islamic State.
|
! style="color:#fff; background:#950000;"|[[2014 Libyan Civil War|<span style="display:none;">E </span><span style="color:white;">Ongoing civil war</span>]]
|-
|{{flag|Tunisia}}
|{{dts|format=dmy|2011|10|23}}
|New constitution enacted
|<nowiki></nowiki>
'''[[Ennahda Movement|Ennahda]]-led government resigns; [[Mehdi Jomaa]] becomes the new prime minister.'''
*Elections to a [[Tunisian Constituent Assembly election, 2011|Constituent Assembly]] on 23 October 2011<ref name="Tunisia election delayed until 23 October">{{cite news |url=http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/08/us-tunisia-election-idUSTRE7571R020110608 |title=Tunisia election delayed until 23 October |agency=Reuters |date=8 June 2011 |accessdate=8 June 2011}}</ref>
*[[2013 protests in Tunisia|2013-14 protests]] against the interim Islamist-led government.
*Prime Minister [[Ali Laarayedh]] resigns and replaced by a technocratic government formed by [[Mehdi Jomaa]], a former minister in [[Laarayedh Cabinet|Laarayedh's government]].
*New constitution [[Constitution of Tunisia|adopted]].
|
! style="color:#fff; background:#006400;"|[[Tunisian parliamentary election, 2014|<span style="display:none;">E </span><span style="color:white;">New parliament elected</span>]]
|-
|}


==See also==
==See also==

Revision as of 22:10, 15 January 2015

The Arab Winter[1][2][3][4][5] is a term for the wide-scale violence and instability evolving in the aftermath of the Arab Spring protests in Arab League countries. The Arab Winter is referring to the events across the Arab World, including the Syrian Civil War,[6][7] the Iraqi insurgency,[8] the Egyptian Crisis,[9] and instability in Yemen.[10] Political developments, particularly the restoration of authoritarianism and suppression of civil liberties, in Egypt since 3 July 2013 have been described as constituting a "military winter" functioning in opposition to the goals of the Arab Spring.[11][12] The arenas of Lebanon, Libya and Bahrain were also described as minor arenas of the Arab Winter.[13] Libya was put as a scene of the Arab Winter, together with Syria by Prof. Sean Yom.[14]

The Arab Winter is characterized by the emergence of multiple regional civil wars, mounting regional instability,[15] economic and demographic decline of Arab countries,[13] and ethno-religious sectarian strife.[16] As of summer 2014, the Arab Winter has produced about a quarter of a million deaths and millions of refugees.[17]

According to the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, as of January 2014, the cost of Arab Winter upheaval across the Arab World is some 800 billion USD.[13] Some 16 million people in Syria, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey are expected to require humanitarian assistance in 2014.[13]

See also

References

  1. ^ "Middle East review of 2012: the Arab Winter - Telegraph". telegraph.co.uk. Retrieved 2014-07-19.
  2. ^ "Analysis: Arab Winter is coming to Baghdad". Telegraph.co.uk. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
  3. ^ "Expert Warns of America's Coming 'Arab Winter'". Cbn.com. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
  4. ^ "The Arab Winter". The New Yorker. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
  5. ^ "Arab Spring or Arab Winter?". Newyorker.com. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
  6. ^ Fear and Faith in Paradise. Retrieved 23 October 2014.
  7. ^ "Arab Winter". America Staging. Retrieved 23 October 2014.
  8. ^ "Analysis: Arab Winter is coming to Baghdad". Retrieved 23 October 2014.
  9. ^ "Egypt and Tunisia's new 'Arab winter'". euronews. Retrieved 23 October 2014.
  10. ^ "Yemen's Arab winter". Middle East Eye. Retrieved 23 October 2014.
  11. ^ "The Coup in Egypt: An Arab Winter?". The Nation. 5 July 2013. Retrieved 1 November 2014.
  12. ^ "In Egypt, Arab Spring Gives Way To Military Winter". The World Post. 21 January 2014. Retrieved 1 November 2014.
  13. ^ a b c d Dr. Rivlin, P. Dayan Research Center
  14. ^ "Lecture Explores Past and Future Arab Spring". Daily Gazette. Retrieved 19 October 2014.
  15. ^ "From Egypt to Syria, this could be the start of the Arab Winter". The Conversation. 17 April 2014. Retrieved 23 October 2014.
  16. ^ [1]
  17. ^ Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa - between the Arab Winter and the Arab Spring. International Affairs. [2]

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