THC Science

2024 United States presidential election
538 members of the Electoral College; 270 electoral votes needed to win
	The electoral map for the 2024 election, based on populations from the 2020 census
Incumbent President; Joe Biden; Democratic	; ;

The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024.^[1] It will be the first presidential election after electoral votes are redistributed according to the post-2020 census reapportionment. Incumbent president Joe Biden stated in January 2022 that he intends to run for reelection to a second term, with Vice President Kamala Harris as his running mate.^[2] Former President Donald Trump suggested in March 2022 that he intends to run for president for a nonconsecutive second term, after his loss in 2020.^[3]

In the United States, general elections follow caucuses and primary elections held by the major parties to determine their nominees. The winner of the 2024 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025.

Background

Procedure

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, which is awarded through a process such as a primary election. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The presidential nominee typically chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket, which is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.

Similarly, the general election in November is also an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.^[4] If no candidate receives the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win the election, a contingent election will be held in which the House of Representatives will select the president from the three candidates who received the most electoral votes, and the Senate will select the vice president from the candidates who received the two highest totals. The presidential election will occur simultaneously with House of Representatives elections, Senate elections, and various state and local-level elections.

Effects of the 2020 census

The election has been the early subject of attention by analysts and commentators, as it will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College, which will follow the 2020 United States census.^[5]^[6] This realignment of electoral college votes will remain consistent through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States census.^[7]

The House of Representatives will have redistributed the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 census, and the states will conduct a redistricting cycle in 2021 and 2022, where congressional and state legislative districts will be redrawn. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have bipartisan or nonpartisan redistricting commissions). The party that wins a presidential election often experiences a coattail effect, which helps other candidates of that party win elections.^[8] In 2020, although its nominee Joe Biden won the presidential election, the Democratic Party did not flip any state legislature chambers and in fact lost both New Hampshire legislative chambers and the Montana governorship. This allowed the Republican Party to have redistricting control of seats in New Hampshire,^[9]^[10] which had the potential to lead to gerrymandering that will stay in effect until the 2030 census, similar to the REDMAP project after the 2010 census.^[10]^[11]^[12]

Term limits

Incumbent president Joe Biden may seek re-election to a second term. Former president Donald Trump is eligible to seek a second term; if elected, he would be the first president since Grover Cleveland to win a second non-consecutive term.^[13]

Potential campaign issues

COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic, which, as of July 2022^[update], has killed over one million people in the United States (more than one in 330 Americans),^[14] has had significant economic and societal effects which could pass on to the 2024 presidential election. The high visibility of governors in fighting the pandemic has been viewed as having given them a boost in possible 2024 contention, in contrast to the significant advantage senators have had in recent cycles.^[15]

Abortion

The Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision in June 2022, which overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision and permitted U.S. states to fully ban abortion for the first time since then, brought abortion into the national spotlight. In the 2024 election, the topic of abortion is expected to play a role in the Republican primary. Potential candidates are divided on the matter, with former Vice President Mike Pence supporting a nationwide ban on abortion, whereas other potential candidates have struck a moderate tone and suggested that the matter should remain the decision of the states.^[16]

Crime

As of August 2022, rising criminal activity and gun violence has put a stress on communities, law enforcement and political parties. The 2024 field is projected to respond to rising crime rates differently on partisan lines.^[17] President Joe Biden has advocated for an assault weapons ban, as well as federal funding to train and deploy more police.^[18]^[19]

Candidates

Democratic Party

Democrat Joe Biden, elected in 2020, is the incumbent president and has stated he intends to run for re-election in 2024 with Kamala Harris as his running mate.^[2] He is the oldest person to assume the office at age 78,^[20] and he would be 82 at the end of his first term and, if re-elected, will be 86 at the end of his second term. During late 2021, as President Biden was suffering from low approval ratings in the polls, there was speculation that he would not seek re-election.^[21] If this occurred, Vice President Harris and Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg would be considered likely candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination, having both run for president in 2020.^[22]^[23] There is speculation that Biden will face a primary challenge from a member of the Democratic Party's progressive faction.^[24]^[25] If Biden is not the nominee in 2024, it will be the first election since 1968 in which an incumbent president was not the eventual nominee of their party, and if he chooses not to seek reelection, it will be the first election since 1928 in which an incumbent president was not a candidate.

Declared intent to run

As of August 2022^[update], the following individuals have declared their intent to run for president.

Joe Biden, 46th President of the United States (2021–present), 47th Vice President of the United States (2009–2017), United States Senator from Delaware (1973–2009), New Castle County Councillor for District 4 (1971–1973), Democratic Party candidate for president in 1988 and 2008^[26]

President
Joe Biden
from Delaware

Potential candidates

As of August 2022^[update], the following individuals have been subjects of speculation about their potential candidacy within the previous six months. Most of these candidates are viewed as potential replacements if President Biden does not seek re-election, while some are viewed as potential primary challenges if he does.

Eric Adams, 110th Mayor of New York City (2022–present), 18th Brooklyn Borough President (2014–2021), Member of the New York State Senate (2007–2013)^[27]^[28]
Pete Buttigieg, 19th United States Secretary of Transportation (2021–present), 32nd Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012–2020), candidate for president in 2020^[29]^[30]
Roy Cooper, 75th Governor of North Carolina (2017–present), 49th Attorney General of North Carolina (2001–2017), Member of the North Carolina Senate (1991–2001), Member of the North Carolina House of Representatives (1987–1991)^[31]^[32]
Tulsi Gabbard, United States Representative from HI-2 (2013–2021), Vice Chair of the Democratic National Committee (2013–2016), candidate for president in 2020^[33]^[34]
Kamala Harris, 49th Vice President of the United States (2021–present), United States Senator from California (2017–2021), candidate for president in 2020^[35]^[36]
Amy Klobuchar, United States Senator from Minnesota (2007–present), County Attorney of Hennepin County (1999–2007), candidate for president in 2020^[37]^[29]
Chris Murphy, United States Senator from Connecticut (2013–present), United States Representative from CT-5 (2007–2013), Member of the Connecticut State Senate from CT-16 (2003–2007), Member of the Connecticut House of Representatives from the 81st district (1999–2003)^[38]^[39]
Gavin Newsom, 40th Governor of California (2019–present), 49th Lieutenant Governor of California (2011–2019), 42nd Mayor of San Francisco (2004–2011), Member of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors from the 2nd district (1997–2004)^[40]^[36]
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, United States Representative from NY-14 (2019–present)^[30]^[41]
Bernie Sanders, United States Senator from Vermont (2007–present), United States Representative from Vermont-AL (1991–2007), 37th Mayor of Burlington, Vermont (1981–1989), candidate for president in 2020 and 2016^[36]^[30]
Nina Turner, Member of the Ohio Senate (2008–2014), Member of the Cleveland City Council (2006–2008)^[42]^[43]
Raphael Warnock, United States Senator from Georgia (2021–present)^[44]^[45]
Gretchen Whitmer, 49th Governor of Michigan (2019–present), Vice Chair of the Democratic National Committee (2021–present), Ingham County Prosecuting Attorney (2016), Minority Leader of the Michigan State Senate (2011–2015), Member of the Michigan Senate (2006–2015), Member of the Michigan House of Representatives (2001–2006)^[46]^[47]

Mayor of New York City
Eric Adams
from New York
Secretary of Transportation
Pete Buttigieg
from Michigan
^[48]
Governor
Roy Cooper
of North Carolina
Former U.S. Representative
Tulsi Gabbard
from Hawaii
Vice President
Kamala Harris
of California
U.S. Senator
Amy Klobuchar
from Minnesota
U.S. Senator
Chris Murphy
from Connecticut
Governor
Gavin Newsom
of California
U.S. Representative
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
from New York
U.S. Senator
Bernie Sanders
from Vermont
Former State Senator
Nina Turner
from Ohio
U.S. Senator
Raphael Warnock
from Georgia
Governor
Gretchen Whitmer
of Michigan

Declined to be candidates

The following individuals have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Stacey Abrams, Georgia State Representative (2007–2017), Minority Leader of the Georgia House of Representatives (2011–2017), candidate for governor in 2018 and 2022^[49]^[50]
Sherrod Brown, United States Senator from Ohio (2007–present), United States Representative from OH-13 (1993–2007), 47th Secretary of State of Ohio (1983–1991)^[51]^[52]
Andy Beshear, 63rd Governor of Kentucky (2019–present), 50th Attorney General of Kentucky (2016–2019)^[53]^[54]
Cory Booker, United States Senator from New Jersey (2013–present), 38th Mayor of Newark, New Jersey (2006–2013), member of the Municipal Council of Newark (1998–2002), candidate for president in 2020^[55]^[56]
Hillary Clinton, 67th United States Secretary of State (2009–2013), United States Senator from New York (2001–2009), First Lady of the United States (1993–2001), Democratic presidential nominee in 2016, candidate for president in 2008^[57]^[58]
Jay Inslee, 23rd Governor of Washington (2013–present), United States Representative from WA-01 (1999–2012) and WA-04 (1993–1995), candidate for president in 2020^[59]^[60]
Ro Khanna, United States Representative from CA-17 (2017–present)^[61]^[62]
Bill Maher, host of Real Time with Bill Maher, former host of Politically Incorrect.^[63]^[64]
Joe Manchin, United States Senator from West Virginia (2010–present), 34th Governor of West Virginia (2005–2010)^[65]^[66]
Phil Murphy, 56th Governor of New Jersey (2018–present), Vice Chair of the National Governors Association (2021–present), United States Ambassador to Germany (2009–2013), Finance Chair of the Democratic National Committee (2006–2009)^[50]^[67]
Michelle Obama, First Lady of the United States (2009–2017)^[68]^[69]
Jared Polis, 43rd Governor of Colorado (2019–present), United States Representative from CO-02 (2009–2019), Member of the Colorado State Board of Education (2001–2007)^[70]^[71]
J. B. Pritzker, 43rd Governor of Illinois (2019–present)^[50]^[72]
Jon Stewart, host of The Problem with Jon Stewart (2021–present), former host of The Daily Show (1998–2015)^[73]^[74]
Elizabeth Warren, United States Senator from Massachusetts (2013–present), candidate for president in 2020^[75]^[76]

Republican Party

Donald Trump was defeated by Joe Biden in 2020 and is currently eligible to run again in 2024. If he decides to run, he would be seeking to become the second president after Grover Cleveland to serve two non-consecutive terms.^[77]^[78] As of November 2021, Trump has been considered likely to receive the Republican presidential nomination if he runs.^[79] However, his chances have been damaged by recent developments: the United States House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack public hearings have hurt him in public opinion,^[80]^[81] Florida Governor Ron DeSantis raising more funds in the first half of 2022,^[82] and the possibility that Democrats could use the 14th Amendment to prevent Trump from running again.^[83] If Trump runs against President Biden again, it will be the first presidential rematch since the 1956 presidential election. The last president to run after leaving office was Theodore Roosevelt, who came in second in the 1912 election as the presidential nominee of the Progressive Party, although Herbert Hoover did briefly seek the Republican presidential nomination at national conventions subsequent to his leaving office in 1933. Trump would also be the first person to win the Republican presidential nomination three consecutive times, and the first to win it three times since Nixon.

Publicly expressed interest

As of August 2022^[update], the following individuals have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.

Liz Cheney, United States Representative from WY-AL (2017–present)^[84]
Chris Christie, 55th Governor of New Jersey (2010–2018), candidate for president in 2016^[85]
Tom Cotton, United States Senator from Arkansas (2015–present), United States Representative from AR-04 (2013–2015)^[86]
Ted Cruz, United States Senator from Texas (2013–present), candidate for president in 2016^[87]
Larry Elder, radio host, author, attorney, and candidate in the 2021 California gubernatorial recall election^[88]
Marjorie Taylor Greene, United States Representative from GA-14 (2021–present)^[89]
Nikki Haley, 29th United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–2018), 116th Governor of South Carolina (2011–2017)^[90]
Larry Hogan, 62nd Governor of Maryland (2015–present)^[91]
Asa Hutchinson, 46th Governor of Arkansas (2015–present), Administrator of Drug Enforcement (2001–2003), United States Representative from AR-03 (1997–2001)^[92]
Adam Kinzinger, United States Representative from IL-16 (2011–present)^[93]
Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States (2017–2021), 50th Governor of Indiana (2013–2017), United States Representative from IN-02 (2001–2003) and IN-06 (2003–2013)^[94]
Mike Pompeo, 70th United States Secretary of State (2018–2021), 6th Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (2017–2018), United States Representative from KS-04 (2011–2017)^[95]
Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021), Republican presidential nominee in 2020 and 2016 and Reform Party candidate for president in 2000^[96]

U.S. Representative
Liz Cheney
from Wyoming
Former Governor
Chris Christie
of New Jersey
U.S. Senator
Tom Cotton
from Arkansas
U.S. Senator
Ted Cruz
from Texas
Radio host
Larry Elder
from California
U.S. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene from Georgia

U.S. Representative
Marjorie Taylor Greene
from Georgia
Former U.N. Ambassador
Nikki Haley
from South Carolina
Governor
Larry Hogan
of Maryland
Governor
Asa Hutchinson
of Arkansas
U.S. Representative
Adam Kinzinger
from Illinois
Former Vice President
Mike Pence
from Indiana
Former Secretary of State
Mike Pompeo
from Kansas
Former President
Donald Trump
from Florida

Potential candidates

As of August 2022^[update], the following individuals have been subjects of speculation about their potential candidacy within the previous six months. Most of these candidates are viewed as potential replacements if Donald Trump chooses not to run again, while some are viewed as potential primary challenges if he does.

Greg Abbott, 48th Governor of Texas (2015–present), 50th Texas Attorney General (2002–2015), Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of Texas (1996–2001)^[97]^[98]
Marsha Blackburn, United States Senator from Tennessee (2019–present), United States Representative from TN-07 (2003–2019)^[99]^[100]
Doug Ducey, 23rd Governor of Arizona (2015–present), Chair of the Republican Governors Association (2020–present), 42nd Treasurer of Arizona (2011–2015)^[101]^[102]
Ron DeSantis, 46th Governor of Florida (2019–present), United States Representative from FL-06 (2013–2018)^[103]^[104]
Will Hurd, United States Representative from TX-23 (2015–2021)^[105]^[106]
Brian Kemp, 83rd Governor of Georgia (2019–present); 27th Georgia Secretary of State (2010–2018); Georgia State Senator (2003–2007)^[107]^[108]
Marco Rubio, United States Senator from Florida (2011–present), 94th Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives (2006–2008), Member of the Florida House of Representatives from the 111th district (2000–2008), Member of the West Miami City Commission (1998–2000), candidate for president in 2016^[109]^[110]
Ben Sasse, United States Senator from Nebraska (2015–present)^[111]^[112]
Francis X. Suarez, 43rd Mayor of Miami (2017–present)^[113]^[114]
Chris Sununu, 82nd Governor of New Hampshire (2017–present), Member of the New Hampshire Executive Council (2011–2017)^[115]^[116]
Glenn Youngkin, 74th Governor of Virginia (2022–present)^[117]^[118]

Governor
Greg Abbott
of Texas
U.S. Senator
Marsha Blackburn
from Tennessee
Governor
Doug Ducey
of Arizona
Governor
Ron DeSantis
of Florida
Former U.S. Representative
Will Hurd
from Texas
Governor
Brian Kemp
of Georgia
U.S. Senator
Marco Rubio
from Florida
U.S. Senator
Ben Sasse
from Nebraska
Mayor of Miami
Francis X. Suarez
from Florida
Governor
Chris Sununu
of New Hampshire
Governor
Glenn Youngkin
of Virginia

Declined to be candidates

The following individuals have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Tucker Carlson, host of Tucker Carlson Tonight (2016–present) and co-founder of The Daily Caller^[119]^[120]
Dan Crenshaw, United States Representative from TX-02 (2019–present)^[121]^[122]
Joni Ernst, United States Senator from Iowa (2015–present)^[123]^[124]
Josh Hawley, United States Senator from Missouri (2019–present)^[125]^[126]
Kristi Noem, 33rd Governor of South Dakota (2019–present), United States Representative from SD-AL (2011–2019)^[127]^[128]
Dan Patrick, 42nd Lieutenant Governor of Texas (2015–present)^[129]^[130]
Mitt Romney, United States Senator from Utah (2019–present), 70th Governor of Massachusetts (2003–2007), candidate for president in 2008, Republican presidential nominee in 2012^[131]^[132]
Paul Ryan, 54th Speaker of the United States House of Representatives (2015–2019), United States Representative from WI-01 (1999–2019) and Republican vice presidential nominee in 2012^[133]^[134]
Rick Scott, Chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (2021–present), United States Senator from Florida (2019–present), 45th Governor of Florida (2011–2019)^[135]^[136]
Tim Scott, United States Senator from South Carolina (2013–present), United States Representative from SC-01 (2011–2013), Member of the South Carolina House of Representatives from the 117th district (2009–2011), Member of the Charleston County Council from the 3rd district (1995–2009)^[137]^[138]
Ivanka Trump, Advisor to the President of the United States (2017–2021)^[139]^[140]
Scott Walker, 45th Governor of Wisconsin (2011–2019), 5th Executive of Milwaukee County (2002–2010), member of the Wisconsin State Assembly from the 14th district (1993–2002), candidate for president in 2016^[141]^[142]

Libertarian Party

Publicly expressed interest

As of August 2022,^[update] the following individuals have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.

Dave Smith, comedian and political commentator^[143]

Comedian
Dave Smith
from
New York

Green Party

Publicly expressed interest

As of August 2022,^[update] the following individuals have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.

Jesse Ventura, Governor of Minnesota (1999–2003); Mayor of Brooklyn Park (1991–1995); Green Party of Alaska nominee for president in 2020; actor, television host and retired professional wrestler^[144]

Former Governor
Jesse Ventura
of
Minnesota

Independents, other third parties, or party unknown

Declared intent to run

As of August 2022,^[update] the following individuals have declared their intent to run for president.

Howard Stern, radio host^[145]

Radio host
Howard Stern
from
New York

Publicly expressed interest

As of August 2022,^[update] the following individuals have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.

Dwayne Johnson, actor and businessman^[146]
Andrew Yang, businessman, Democratic candidate for president in 2020 and New York City Mayor in 2021, founder of Forward Party^[147]

Actor
Dwayne Johnson
from
California
Businessman
Andrew Yang
from
New York

Primary election polling

Democratic Party

Template:Import-blanktable

Polls with Joe Biden

Nationwide polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Stacey Abrams	Joe Biden	Cory Booker	Pete Buttigieg	Kamala Harris	Michelle Obama	Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Bernie Sanders	Other	Undecided
Harvard/Harris	July 27–28, 2022	1885 (RV)	–	4%	31%	–	5%	12%	–	3%	8%	24%^[b]	13%
Zogby Analytics	May 23–24, 2022	544 (LV)	± 4.2%	3%	41%	–	–	11%	16%	–	8%	13%^[c]	8%
Harvard/Harris	May 18–19, 2022	–	–	3%	23%	–	5%	9%	–	3%	8%	9%	22%
YouGov	May 5–9, 2022	460 (A)	–	–	33%	–	8%	12%	–	6%	17%	16%^[d]	–
Harvard/Harris	January 19–20, 2022	–	–	–	32%	–	–	14%	–	–	11%	–	43%
McLaughlin & Associates	January 13–18, 2022	463 (LV)	–	6%	25%	2%	4%	8%	17%	7%	–	–	13%
UMass Amherst	December 14–20, 2021	491 (A)	–	–	40%	–	9%	10%	–	7%	18%	16%^[e]	–
YouGov/Yahoo News	December 9–13, 2021	530 (RV)	–	–	22%	–	10%	13%	–	5%	11%	–	24%
YouGov/Yahoo News	December 9–13, 2021	640 (A)	–	–	20%	–	10%	13%	–	7%	11%	–	24%
TIPP Insights	December 1–4, 2021	1,013 (RV)	–	4%	37%	3%	3%	16%	–	4%	–	2%	13%
Harvard/Harris	November 30 – December 2, 2021	1,989 (RV)	–	5%	36%	5%	3%	16%	–	5%	5%	10%	–
McLaughlin & Associates	November 11–16, 2021	450 (LV)	–	4%	24%	2%	8%	13%	16%	5%	–	12%	16%
Zogby Analytics	November 8–10, 2021	426 (LV)	–	6%	40%	4%	–	10%	20%	–	–	12%^[f]	8%
YouGov/Yahoo News	November 4–8, 2021	684 (A)	–	–	25%	–	7%	14%	–	8%	12%	8%^[g]	31%
NPR-PBS NewsHouse-Marist	October 18–22, 2021	469 (RV)	–	–	36%	–	–	–	–	–	–	44%	20%
Morning Consult	October 8–11, 2021	886 (RV)	–	–	83%	–	–	–	–	–	–	13%	4%
Emerson College	August 30 – September 1, 2021	450 (RV)	± 4.6%	–	60%	–	–	–	–	–	–	39%	1%
Trafalgar Group	Apr 30 – May 6, 2021	– (LV)^[h]	–	–	57%	–	–	–	–	–	–	22%^[i]	15%^[j]

Polls without Joe Biden

Nationwide polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Stacey Abrams	Cory Booker	Pete Buttigieg	Andrew Cuomo	Kamala Harris	Amy Klobuchar	Gavin Newsom	Michelle Obama	Beto O'Rourke	Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Bernie Sanders	Elizabeth Warren	Andrew Yang	Other	Undecided
Harvard/Harris	July 27–28, 2022	1885 (RV)	–	5%	–	8%	–	23%	4%	–	–	–	5%	8%	4%	–	30%^[k]	13%
Suffolk University	July 22–25, 2022	440 (RV)	±2.0%	–	–	16%	–	18%	11%	8%	–	–	10%	18%	–	–	8%^[l]	10%
NewsStation/Decision Desk HQ	July 22–24, 2022	1,000 (RV)	±3.0%	–	–	8%	–	16%	–	9%	–	–	6%	11%	–	–	51%^[m]	–
McLaughlin & Associates	June 17–22, 2022	456 (LV)	–	6%	3%	8%	1%	13%	3%	3%	19%	4%	7%	–	–	–	17%^[n]	15%
Echelon Insights	June 17–20, 2022	511 (LV)	–	6%	–	12%	–	27%	4%	5%	–	–	7%	–	6%	–	9%^[o]	18%
McLaughlin & Associates	April 22–26, 2022	463 (LV)	–	6%	3%	9%	2%	17%	4%	2%	23%	1%	4%	–	–	–	13%^[p]	17%
McLaughlin & Associates	March 17–22, 2022	466 (LV)	–	5%	3%	7%	1%	18%	2%	2%	20%	3%	6%	–	–	–	15%^[q]	18%
McLaughlin & Associates	February 16–22, 2022	453 (LV)	–	6%	4%	10%	1%	15%	2%	4%	22%	3%	6%	–	–	–	16%^[r]	13%
McLaughlin & Associates	January 13–18, 2022	463 (LV)	–	6%	4%	6%	2%	16%	3%	2%	22%	2%	9%	–	–	–	13%^[s]	15%
Harvard/Harris	November 30 – December 2, 2021	1,989 (RV)	–	5%	5%	8%	–	31%	5%	–	–	–	7%	15%	7%	–	16%^[t]	–
Hill-HarrisX	November 18–19, 2021	939 (RV)	± 3.2%	4%	3%	5%	–	26%	3%	4%	15%	2%	5%	7%	2%	1%	8%^[u]	16%
Echelon Insights	November 12–18, 2021	458 (LV)	–	6%	6%	8%	–	29%	2%	2%	–	–	5%	16%	6%	–	1%^[v]	16%
McLaughlin & Associates	November 11–16, 2021	450 (LV)	–	5%	3%	8%	2%	22%	5%	–	23%	3%	5%	–	–	–	29%	–
YouGov/Yahoo News	October 19–21, 2021	671 (A)	–	7%	–	9%	–	22%	–	–	–	–	7%	12%	8%	–	4%^[w]	31%
Echelon Insights	October 15–19, 2021	533 (LV)	–	5%	4%	9%	–	23%	4%	3%	–	–	5%	16%	6%	–	3%^[x]	20%
McLaughlin & Associates	October 14–18, 2021	473 (LV)	–	5%	3%	9%	2%	29%	3%	2%	18%	3%	7%	–	–	–	7%^[y]	14%
McLaughlin & Associates	September 9–14, 2021	476 (LV)	–	5%	4%	7%	2%	29%	3%	2%	17%	3%	7%	–	–	–	3%^[z]	17%
McLaughlin & Associates	July 29 – August 3, 2021	467 (LV)	–	4%	5%	8%	4%	28%	2%	2%	16%	2%	7%	–	–	4%	4%^[aa]	14%
YouGov/Yahoo News	July 30 – August 2, 2021	697 (A)	–	4%	–	6%	–	44%	–	–	–	–	4%	10%	6%	–	18%^[ab]	20%
McLaughlin & Associates	June 16–20, 2021	463 (LV)	–	5%	3%	4%	2%	31%	3%	1%	19%	3%	5%	–	–	3%	5%^[ac]	16%
McLaughlin & Associates	May 12–18, 2021	459 (LV)	–	4%	4%	6%	1%	35%	3%	2%	16%	2%	7%	–	–	2%	7%^[ad]	13%
Trafalgar Group	Apr 30 – May 6, 2021	– (LV)^[ae]	–	–	–	9%	–	41%	5%	–	–	4%	8%	–	–	3%	29%^[af]	–
McLaughlin & Associates	Apr 8–13, 2021	458 (LV)	–	–	4%	5%	2%	34%	4%	2%	20%	2%	3%	–	–	4%	7%^[ag]	12%
McLaughlin & Associates	Feb 24–28, 2021	443 (LV)	–	–	4%	7%	1%	28%	3%	–	23%	2%	8%	–	–	4%	6%^[ah]	14%
	January 20, 2021	Inauguration of Joe Biden
McLaughlin & Associates	Dec 9–13, 2020	445 (LV)	–	–	3%	5%	5%	25%	2%	–	29%	–	7%	–	–	–	8%^[ai]	18%
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax	Nov 21–23, 2020	445 (LV)	± 3.1%	–	2%	6%	5%	29%	2%	–	23%	–	6%	–	–	–	5%^[aj]	23%
	November 3, 2020	2020 presidential election
McLaughlin & Associates	Nov 2–3, 2020	461 (LV)	–	–	2%	8%	8%	18%	–	–	25%	–	6%	–	–	–	6%^[ak]	28%
Léger	Aug 4–7, 2020	390 (LV)	± 2.8%	6%	6%	16%	21%	19%	6%	–	–	6%	9%	–	–	8%	3%^[al]	–

Republican Party

Nationwide polling

Polls with Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Ted Cruz	Ron DeSantis	Nikki Haley	Mike Pence	Mike Pompeo	Donald Trump	Other/Undecided ^[am]	Margin
Real Clear Politics	June 28 – July 28, 2022	August 2, 2022	5.0%	24.2%	3.5%	7.2%	1.3%	50.4%	8.4%	Trump +26.2

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Tucker Carlson	Ted Cruz	Ron DeSantis	Nikki Haley	Josh Hawley	Larry Hogan	Mike Pence	Mike Pompeo	Mitt Romney	Marco Rubio	Tim Scott	Donald Trump	Donald Trump Jr.	Other	Undecided
Harvard/Harris	July 27–28, 2022	1885 (RV)	–	–	3%	19%	5%	–	–	7%	1%	–	1%	1%	52%	–	2%^[an]	9%
Suffolk University	July 22–25, 2022	414 (RV)	–	–	–	34%	3%	–	–	7%	1%	–	–	–	43%	–	5%^[ao]	8%
Politico/Morning Consult	July 15–17, 2022	2005 (RV)	±2.0%	–	3%	23%	2%	–	0%	7%	1%	1%	1%	1%	53%	–	–	–
Politico/Morning Consult	July 8–10, 2022	2005 (RV)	±2.0%	–	2%	21%	3%	–	1%	8%	1%	1%	1%	0%	52%	–	–	–
The New York Times/Siena College	July 5–7, 2022	849 (RV)	±4.1%	–	7%	25%	6%	–	–	6%	2%	–	–	–	49%	–	1%	5%
McLaughlin & Associates	January 13–18, 2022	468 (LV)	–	–	–	13%	4%	–	1%	9%	–	3%	2%	1%	53%	–	–	8%
John Bolton Super PAC	January 6, 2022	501 (LV)	–	–	5%	19%	4%	–	–	4%	1%	–	2%	–	36%	–	–	22%
UMass Amherst	December 14–20, 2021	306 (A)	–	–	6%	20%	7%	–	–	6%	2%	–	–	4%	55%	–	–	–
McLaughlin & Associates	November 11–16, 2021	450 (LV)	–	–	2%	15%	3%	–	–	7%	1%	2%	1%	1%	55%	–	6%	8%
Zogby Analytics	November 8–10, 2021	371 (LV)	–	–	2%	7%	5%	–	–	12%	2%	–	1%	–	59%	–	6%^[ap]	4%
YouGov/Yahoo News	November 4–8, 2021	559 (A)	–	3%	–	21%	5%	–	–	4%	–	–	3%	–	44%	–	1%^[aq]	19%
Harvard/Harris	October 26–28, 2021	490 (LV)	±4.0%	–	–	10%	–	–	–	9%	–	–	–	–	47%	–	15%	19%
YouGov/Yahoo News	October 19–21, 2021	629 (A)	–	1%	–	18%	4%	1%	–	5%	–	–	2%	2%	41%	–	2%^[ar]	24%
Echelon Insights (Archived version) Archived October 20, 2021, at the Wayback Machine	October 15–19, 2021	476 (RV)	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	66%^[as]	–	31%	4%
	October 15–19, 2021	476 (RV)	–	–	–	22%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	62%^[as]	–	–	16%
McLaughlin & Associates	October 14–18, 2021	463 (LV)	–	–	3%	10%	4%	–	–	9%	1%	4%	2%	1%	53%^[as]	–	9%^[at]	6%
Morning Consult	October 8–11, 2021	803 (RV)	–	–	3%	12%	3%	0%	0%	12%	0%	3%	3%	1%	47%	6%	6%^[au]	4%
Echelon Insights [1]	September 17–23, 2021	479 (RV)	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	59%^[as]	–	32%	9%
John Bolton Super PAC	September 16–18, 2021	1,000 (LV)	± 3.1%	–	5%	25%	6%	1%	–	3%	–	–	2%	2%	26%	–	10%^[av]	20%
Harvard/Harris	September 15–16, 2021	490 (LV)	±4.0%	–	–	9%	3%	–	–	13%	–	–	3%	–	58%	–	0%	14%
McLaughlin & Associates	September 9–14, 2021	456 (LV)	–	–	3%	8%	2%	–	–	10%	1%	3%	2%	1%	59%^[as]	–	7%^[aw]	4%
Emerson College	August 30 – September 1, 2021	395 (RV)	± 4.9%	–	2%	10%	7%	1%	–	6%	–	3%	–	–	67%	–	5%^[ax]	1%
McLaughlin & Associates	July 29 – August 3, 2021	467 (LV)	–	–	3%	11%	4%	–	–	8%	1%	3%	3%	0%	54%^[as]	–	7%^[ay]	6%
YouGov/Yahoo News	July 30 – August 2, 2021	518 (A)	–	2%	–	13%	4%	0%	–	3%	–	–	1%	1%	58%	–	1%^[az]	17%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates	July 6–8, 2021	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	–	2%	19%	3%	0%	1%	8%	0%	3%	1%	1%	47%^[as]	-	2%^[ba]	13%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates	July 6–8, 2021	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	–	–	31%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	58%^[as]	–	–	11%
John Bolton Super PAC	July 8, 2021	1,000 (LV)	–	–	5%	13%	5%	0%	–	6%	–	–	3%	0%	46%	–	22%	–
Echelon Insights [2]	June 18–22, 2021	386 (RV)	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	59%^[as]	–	35%	6%
McLaughlin & Associates	June 16–20, 2021	444 (LV)	–	–	4%	9%	3%	–	–	8%	1%	3%	1%	1%	55%^[as]	–	8%^[bb]	7%
YouGov/Yahoo News	May 24–26, 2021	378 (A)	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	65%	–	19%^[bc]	16%
Quinnipiac	May 18–24, 2021	~290 (A)^[bd]	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	66%	–	30%^[be]	4%
McLaughlin & Associates	May 12–18, 2021	444 (LV)	–	1%	3%	8%	5%	–	–	10%	1%	2%	0%	1%	57%^[as]	–	7%^[bf]	7%
Echelon Insights [3]	May 14–17, 2021	479 (RV)	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	63%^[as]	–	31%	6%
Morning Consult/Politico	May 14–17, 2021	782 (RV)	± 2%	–	4%	8%	4%	0%	0%	13%	1%	4%	1%	2%	48%	7%	9%^[bg]	–
YouGov/Yahoo News	May 11–13, 2021	348 (A)	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	68%	–	22%^[bh]	10%
Trafalgar Group	Apr 30 – May 6, 2021	– (LV)^[bi]	–	–^[as]	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	62%	–	27%^[bj]	11%^[bk]
Echelon Insights [4]	Apr 16–23, 2021	440 (RV)	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	59%^[as]	–	35%	6%
McLaughlin & Associates	Apr 8–13, 2021	441 (LV)	–	1%	3%	7%	2%	–	–	10%	1%	3%	1%	1%	55%^[as]	–	8%^[bl]	9%
PEM Management Corporation	Apr 3–7, 2021	494 (LV)	–	–	7%	9%	9%	–	–	6%	–	–	3%	–	44%	–	1%^[bm]	–
Echelon Insights	March 15–21, 2021	1,008 (RV)	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	60%^[as]	–	30%	10%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/The Hill [5]	Feb 20 – March 2, 2021	1,264 (LV)	± 2.7%	–	3%	7%	6%	1%	1%	9%	1%	5%	2%	0%	51%^[as]	-	3%^[bn]	12%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/The Hill [5]	Feb 20 – March 2, 2021	1,264 (LV)	± 2.7%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	57%^[bo]	–	16%^[bp]	27%
McLaughlin & Associates	Feb 24–28, 2021	448 (LV)	–	1%	5%	4%	3%	–	–	8%	–	3%	1%	–	54%^[as]	–	9%^[bq]	10%
Harvard/Harris	Feb 23–25, 2021	546 (RV)	–	–	5%	–	7%	2%	–	18%	–	–	–	2%	52%^[as]	–	13%^[br]	–
Echelon Insights	Feb 12–18, 2021	430 (RV)	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	55%^[as]	–	32%	14%
Morning Consult/Politico	Feb 14–15, 2021	645 (RV)	± 4%	–	4%	–	6%	1%	1%	12%	2%	4%	2%	1%	54%	6%	10%^[bs]	–
Echelon Insights	Jan 20–26, 2021	– (RV)^[bt]	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	48%^[as]	–	40%	11%
Léger	Jan 15–17, 2021	1,007 (A)^[bu]	± 3.09%	–	6%	2%	7%	1%	6%	13%	2%	19%	3%	3%	29%^[as]	2%	6%^[bv]	–
Ipsos/Axios	Jan 11–13, 2021	334 (A)	± 5.8%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	57%	–	41%	1%^[bw]
Morning Consult/Politico	Jan 8–11, 2021	702 (RV)	–	–	7%	–	6%	1%	0%	18%	1%	5%	2%	1%	40%	6%	15%^[bx]	–
McLaughlin & Associates	Dec 9–13, 2020	442 (LV)	–	3%	5%	1%	3%	–	–	11%	1%	4%	1%	1%	56%	–	5%^[by]	10%
Fox News	Dec 6–9, 2020	~ 413 (RV)	± 4.5%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	71%	–	21%^[bz]	8%
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax	Nov 21–23, 2020	442 (LV)	± 3.1%	1%	4%	2%	4%	–	–	9%	1%	4%	2%	1%	53%^[as]	–	6%^[ca]	15%
Morning Consult/Politico	Nov 21–23, 2020	765 (RV)	± 2%	–	4%	–	4%	1%	0%	12%	–	4%	2%	1%	53%	8%	11%^[cb]	–
HarrisX/The Hill	Nov 17–19, 2020	599 (RV)	± 2.26%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	75%	–	25%	–
Seven Letter Insight	Nov 10–19, 2020	~555 (V)^[cc]	± 2.5%	2%	6%	–	7%	1%	–	19%	–	–	4%	2%	35%	11%	4%^[cd]	–
Léger	Nov 13–15, 2020	304 (A)^[ce]	± 3.09%	4%	7%	–	4%	–	–	22%	2%	8%	5%	–	45%^[as]	–	5%^[cf]	–
YouGov/Washington Examiner	October 30, 2020	– (RV)^[cg]	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	38%	–	43%^[ch]	–

Polls without Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Tucker Carlson	Ted Cruz	Ron DeSantis	Nikki Haley	Josh Hawley	Larry Hogan	Mike Pence	Mike Pompeo	Mitt Romney	Marco Rubio	Tim Scott	Donald Trump Jr.	Other	Undecided
Harvard/Harris	July 27–28, 2022	1885 (RV)	–	–	7%	34%	7%	–	–	19%	3%	–	3%	1%	–	3%^[ci]	22%
NewsStation/Decision Desk HQ	July 22–24, 2022	1,000 (RV)	±3.0%	–	5%	23%	5%	–	–	20%	–	–	–	–	–	44%^[cj]	–
Echelon Insights	June 17–20, 2022	409 (LV)	–	–	6%	39%	3%	1%	0%	18%	0%	3%	2%	0%	7%	5%^[ck]	15%
Echelon Insights [6]	November 12–18, 2021	435 (RV)	–	–	10%	26%	6%	1%	0%	15%	1%	3%	1%	1%	13%	5%^[cl]	20%
Harvard/Harris	October 26–28, 2021	490 (LV)	±4.0%	–	12%	21%	–	–	–	23%	–	–	–	–	–	0%	43%
Echelon Insights [7]	October 15–19, 2021	476 (RV)	–	2%	8%	22%	5%	0%	0%	8%	2%	3%	4%	2%	13%	8%^[cm]	22%
McLaughlin & Associates	October 14–18, 2021	463 (LV)	–	–	5%	24%	5%	–	–	14%	1%	5%	2%	2%	18%	11%^[cn]	13%
Echelon Insights [8]	September 17–23, 2021	479 (RV)	–	2%	9%	22%	6%	1%	1%	15%	2%	4%	2%	1%	9%	11%^[co]	21%
Harvard/Harris	September 15–16, 2021	490 (LV)	±4.0%	–	14%	20%	–	–	–	32%	–	–	–	–	–	0%	38%
McLaughlin & Associates	September 9–14, 2021	456 (LV)	–	–	7%	22%	4%	–	–	15%	2%	4%	2%	2%	19%	12%^[cp]	11%
Emerson College	August 30 – September 1, 2021	395 (RV)	± 4.9%	–	13%	32%	10%	6%	–	24%	–	6%	–	–	–	9%^[cq]	0%
McLaughlin & Associates	July 29 – August 3, 2021	467 (LV)	–	–	9%	23%	4%	–	–	11%	2%	4%	4%	1%	12%	16%^[cr]	14%
Echelon Insights [9]	July 19–23, 2021	421 (RV)	–	1%	9%	32%	4%	1%	0%^[cs]	17%	1%	3%	2%	1%	10%	6%^[ct]	13%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates	July 6–8, 2021	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	–	7%	39%	4%	0%	1%	15%	1%	3%	–	2%	–	4%^[cu]	24%
Echelon Insights [10]	June 18–22, 2021	386 (RV)	–	1%	6%	21%	6%	0%^[cv]	0%^[cw]	14%	0%^[cx]	4%	3%	2%	7%	7%^[cy]	26%
McLaughlin & Associates	June 16–20, 2021	444 (LV)	–	–	6%	24%	4%	–	–	19%	1%	5%	2%	1%	15%	13%^[cz]	11%
McLaughlin & Associates	May 12–18, 2021	444 (LV)	–	1%	12%	18%	5%	–	–	19%	2%	3%	1%	2%	13%	13%^[da]	12%
Echelon Insights [11]	May 14–17, 2021	479 (RV)	–	2%	9%	22%	5%	1%	0%^[db]	14%	1%	4%	1%	3%	6%	9%^[dc]	19%
Trafalgar Group	Apr 30 – May 6, 2021	– (LV)^[dd]	–	–	15%	35%	6%	1%	–	10%	–	10%	–	–	–	21%^[de]	–
Echelon Insights [12]	Apr 16–23, 2021	440 (RV)	–	2%	8%	20%	6%	1%	0%^[df]	16%	1%	4%	2%	0%^[dg]	9%	3%^[dh]	28%
McLaughlin & Associates	Apr 8–13, 2021	441 (LV)	–	3%	10%	14%	3%	–	–	19%	2%	3%	3%	1%	15%	13%^[di]	14%
Echelon Insights	March 15–21, 2021	1,008 (RV)	–	4%	5%	17%	4%	–	–	16%	4%	3%	2%	–	3%	7%^[dj]	35%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/The Hill [13]	Feb 20 – March 2, 2021	1,264 (LV)	± 2.7%	–	13%	17%	8%	2%	1%	19%	4%	5%	4%	1%	–	7%^[dk]	20%
McLaughlin & Associates	Feb 24–28, 2021	448 (LV)	–	1%	9%	9%	5%	–	–	15%	–	6%	2%	–	21%	16%^[dl]	17%
RMG Research/Just the News	Feb 25–27, 2021	363 (RV)	–	8%	18%	21%	10%	2%	–	–	9%	–	–	–	–	33%^[dm]	–
Harvard/Harris	Feb 23–25, 2021	546 (RV)	–	–	16%	–	10%	6%	–	41%	–	–	–	7%	–	19%^[dn]	–
Echelon Insights	Feb 12–18, 2021	430 (RV)	–	1%	10%	8%	6%	≤1%	1%	21%	1%	4%	≤1%	≤1%	8%	12%^[do]	26%
Echelon Insights	Jan 20–26, 2021	– (RV)^[dp]	–	2%	8%	2%	9%	0%	0%	21%	1%	3%	2%	1%	10%	10%^[dq]	30%
	January 20, 2021	Inauguration of Joe Biden
Léger	Jan 15–17, 2021	1,007 (A)^[dr]	± 3.09%	–	9%	3%	8%	2%	7%	22%	3%	20%	4%	3%	11%	8%^[ds]	–
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax	Nov 21–23, 2020	442 (LV)	± 3.1%	1%	7%	2%	6%	–	–	20%	1%	5%	3%	2%	20%	13%^[dt]	22%
Léger	Nov 13–15, 2020	304 (A)^[du]	± 3.1%	6%	14%	–	6%	–	–	44%	3%	11%	6%	–	–	7%^[dv]	–
	November 3, 2020	2020 presidential election
McLaughlin & Associates	Nov 2–3, 2020	449 (LV)	–	2%	5%	2%	8%	–	–	30%	–	5%	2%	1%	20%	5%^[dw]	21%
Echelon Insights	Aug 14–18, 2020	423 (LV)	–	2%	4%	–	7%	0%	1%	26%	–	–	5%	1%	12%	11%^[dx]	29%
Léger	Aug 4–7, 2020	309 (LV)	± 2.8%	7%	8%	–	11%	–	–	31%	3%	9%	5%	–	17%	9%^[dy]	–

Statewide polling

Pennsylvania primary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Ted Cruz	Liz Cheney	Mike Pence	Marco Rubio	Chris Christie	Ron DeSantis	Donald Trump Sr.	Mike Pompeo	Other	Undecided
John Bolton Super PAC	Jun 30 – July 6, 2020	129 (LV)	–	2%	6%	7%	2%	2%	29%	40%	0%	0%	3%

Ohio primary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Ted Cruz	Liz Cheney	Mike Pence	Marco Rubio	Chris Christie	Ron DeSantis	Donald Trump Sr.	Mike Pompeo	Other	Undecided
John Bolton Super PAC	Jun 30 – July 6, 2020	129 (LV)	–	7%	6%	9%	2%	2%	30%	28%	1%	0%	13%

Maine primary
Maine's 2nd congressional district

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Ted Cruz	Nikki Haley	Mike Pence	Marco Rubio	Ivanka Trump	Donald Trump Jr.	Other	Undecided
	January 3, 2023	Redrawing of congressional districts after the 2020 redistricting cycle
	January 20, 2021	Inauguration of Joe Biden
	November 3, 2020	2020 presidential election
SurveyUSA / FairVote	Jun 30 – July 6, 2020	604 (LV)	± 4.1%	12%	12%	30%	6%	7%	11%	–	21%

South Carolina primary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump	Other	Undecided
Trafalgar (R)	Mar 25–29, 2021	1,014 (LV)	± 2.99%	64%	11%^[dz]	25%^[ea]

Utah primary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Liz Cheney	Chris Christie	Ted Cruz	Ron DeSantis	Nikki Haley	Mike Pence	Mitt Romney	Marco Rubio	Donald Trump	Other	Undecided
OH Predictive Insights	Nov 5–15, 2021	333 (RV)	± 5.4%	1%	1%	3%	7%	4%	9%	20%	1%	43%	1%	10%
OH Predictive Insights	Nov 5–15, 2021	333 (RV)	± 5.4%	2%	1%	8%	18%	5%	13%	21%	1%	–	1%	20%

General election polling

Hypothetical polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/Undecided ^[eb]	Margin
Real Clear Politics	July 5–28, 2022	August 1, 2022	42.2%	45.2%	12.6%	Trump +3.0

Poll source	Date	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided
YouGov/Yahoo News	July 28 – August 1, 2022	1,152 (RV)	–	45%	42%	13%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	July 29, 2022	1,094 (LV)	–	35%	42%	23%
Harvard/Harris	July 27–28, 2022	1,885 (RV)	–	41%	45%	14%
Rasmussen Reports	July 26–27, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	40%	46%	14%
Suffolk University	July 22–25, 2022	1,000 (RV)	± 3.1%	45%	41%	14%
Emerson College	July 19–20, 2022	1,078 (RV)	± 2.9%	43%	46%	11%
Echelon Insights	July 15–18, 2022	1,022 (LV)	–	46%	44%	10%
The Trafalgar Group (R)	July 11–14, 2022	1,085 (LV)	± 2.9%	43%	48%	10%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	July 9, 2022	1,078 (LV)	–	41%	43%	16%
YouGov/Yahoo News	July 8–11, 2022	1,261 (RV)	–	44%	43%	13%
The New York Times/Siena College	July 5–7, 2022	849 (RV)	± 4.1%	44%	41%	14%
Harvard/Harris	June 28–29, 2022	1,308 (RV)	–	40%	43%	17%
Emerson College	June 28–29, 2022	1,271 (RV)	± 2.7%	39%	44%	17%
YouGov/Yahoo News	June 24–27, 2022	1,239 (RV)	–	46%	43%	11%
McLaughlin & Associates	June 17–22, 2022	1,000 (LV)	–	44%	49%	7%
Echelon Insights	June 17–20, 2022	1,030 (LV)	–	45%	43%	12%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	June 15, 2022	1,064 (LV)	–	38%	41%	21%
YouGov/Yahoo News	June 10–13, 2022	1,243 (RV)	–	42%	44%	14%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	May 30, 2022	1,173 (LV)	–	38%	42%	20%
Emerson College	May 24–25, 2022	1,148 (RV)	± 2.8%	42%	44%	14%
Echelon Insights	May 20–23, 2022	1,020 (LV)	–	45%	44%	11%
YouGov/Yahoo News	May 19–22, 2022	1,360 (RV)	–	44%	42%	14%
Harvard/Harris	May 18–19, 2022	1,963 (RV)	–	42%	45%	13%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	May 17, 2022	1,120 (LV)	–	39%	42%	19%
Rasmussen Reports	April 28 – May 2, 2022	1,004 (LV)	± 3.0%	36%	50%	14%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	May 1, 2022	1,096 (LV)	–	40%	44%	16%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.	April 19–27, 2022	800 (LV)	–	48%	46%	5%
Emerson College	April 25–26, 2022	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	43%	15%
McLaughlin & Associates	April 22–26, 2022	1,000 (LV)	–	43%	50%	7%
Morning Consult	April 22–25, 2022	2,004 (RV)	± 2.0%	45%	44%	11%
InsiderAdvantage (R)	April 21–23, 2022	750 (RV)	± 3.6%	43%	47%	10%
YouGov/Yahoo News	April 19–22, 2022	1,187 (RV)	–	43%	41%	16%
Harvard/Harris	April 20–21, 2022	1,966 (RV)	–	43%	45%	12%
Echelon Insights	April 18–20, 2022	1,001 (LV)	–	45%	44%	11%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	April 18, 2022	1,500 (LV)	–	41%	43%	16%
YouGov/Yahoo News	Mar 31 – April 4, 2022	1,233 (RV)	–	45%	40%	15%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	April 3, 2022	1,205 (LV)	–	38%	43%	19%
Marquette Law School	Mar 14–24, 2022	1,004 (A)	± 4.0%	41%	37%	22%
Harvard/Harris	Mar 23–24, 2022	1,990 (RV)	–	41%	47%	12%
McLaughlin & Associates	Mar 17–22, 2022	1,000 (LV)	–	46%	49%	5%
Echelon Insights	Mar 18–21, 2022	1,050 (RV)	–	46%	44%	10%
University of Massachusetts Lowell	Mar 15–21, 2022	873 (RV)	± 3.7%	44%	42%	14%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	March 20, 2022	1,193 (LV)	–	41%	41%	18%
Emerson College	Mar 18–20, 2022	1,023 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	45%	13%
YouGov/Yahoo News	Mar 10–14, 2022	1,225 (RV)	–	47%	39%	14%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	March 8, 2022	1,194 (LV)	–	40%	42%	18%
Wall Street Journal	Mar 2–7, 2022	1,500 (RV)	–	45%	45%	9%
Schoen Cooperman Research	Mar 2–6, 2022	800 (LV)	–	44%	44%	12%
YouGov/Yahoo News	Feb 24–27, 2022	1,532 (A)	± 2.9%	40%	39%	21%
NewsNation	Feb 23–24, 2022	1,046 (RV)	–	37%	41%	22%
Harvard/Harris	Feb 23–24, 2022	2,026 (RV)	–	42%	48%	10%
Echelon Insights	Feb 19–23, 2022	1,078 (RV)	–	45%	43%	12%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	February 23, 2022	1,367 (LV)	–	42%	38%	20%
McLaughlin & Associates	Feb 16–22, 2022	1,000 (LV)	–	45%	48%	7%
Emerson College	Feb 19–20, 2022	1,138 (RV)	± 2.8%	44%	48%	8%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.	February 3–9, 2022	800 (LV)	–	46%	43%	11%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	February 6, 2022	1,406 (LV)	–	41%	41%	18%
YouGov/Yahoo News	Jan 20–24, 2022	1,568 (A)	± 2.8%	42%	40%	18%
Morning Consult	January 22–23, 2022	2,005 (RV)	± 2.0%	45%	44%	11%
Echelon Insights	Jan 21–23, 2022	1,098 (RV)	–	47%	43%	10%
Marquette Law School^[ec]	Jan 10–21, 2022	1,000 (A)	–	43%	33%	24%
Harvard/Harris	Jan 19–20, 2022	1,815 (RV)	–	40%	46%	14%
McLaughlin & Associates	Jan 13–18, 2022	1,000 (LV)	–	44%	49%	7%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	January 8–9, 2022	1,430 (LV)	–	39%	38%	23%
PMC/John Bolton Super Pac	January 6, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.1%	45%	44%	11%
Rasmussen Reports	January 5, 2022	1,015 (LV)	± 3.0%	40%	46%	14%
InsiderAdvantage (R)	Dec 17–19, 2021	750 (RV)	± 3.6%	41%	49%	10%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	December 18, 2021	1,411 (LV)	–	34%	39%	27%
YouGov/Yahoo News	Dec 9–13, 2021	1,558 (A)	–	47%	41%	12%
Echelon Insights	Dec 9–13, 2021	1,098 (RV)	–	47%	44%	9%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	December 5, 2021	1,387 (LV)	–	38%	42%	20%
Harvard/Harris	Nov 30 – December 2, 2021	1,989 (RV)	–	45%	48%	7%
Rasmussen Reports	Nov 22–23, 2021	1,200 (LV)	± 3.0%	32%	45%	23%
Wall Street Journal	Nov 16–22, 2021	1,500 (RV)	–	46%	45%	10%
Echelon Insights^{[permanent dead link]}	Nov 12–18, 2021	1,013 (RV)	–	45%	45%	10%
McLaughlin & Associates	Nov 11–16, 2021	1,000 (LV)	–	44%	49%	7%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	November 15, 2021	1,500 (RV)	–	35%	41%	24%
Marquette Law School^[ed]	Nov 1–10, 2021	1,004 (A)	–	42%	34%	24%
YouGov/Yahoo News	Nov 4–8, 2021	1,673 (A)	–	43%	39%	18%
Suffolk University	Nov 3–5, 2021	1,000 (RV)	± 3.1%	40%	44%	16%
Emerson College	Nov 3–4, 2021	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	45%	12%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	October 31, 2021	1,387 (LV)	–	42%	42%	16%
Harvard/Harris	Oct 26–28, 2021	1,578 (LV)	–	45%	46%	9%
YouGov/Yahoo News	Oct 19–21, 2021	1,704 (A)	–	43%	40%	17%
Echelon Insights	Oct 15–19, 2021	1,098 (RV)	–	48%	42%	10%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	October 17, 2021	1,366 (LV)	–	42%	40%	18%
Selzer and Company/Grinnell College	Oct 13–17, 2021	745 (LV)	± 3.6%	40%	40%	19%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	Oct 4–6, 2021	1,345 (LV)	–	43%	41%	16%
Echelon Insights	Sep 17–23, 2021	1,005 (RV)	–	50%	39%	11%
Rasmussen Reports	Sep 21–22, 2021	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	41%	51%	8%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	Sep 19–20, 2021	1,330 (LV)	–	42%	40%	18%
McLaughlin & Associates	Sep 9–14, 2021	1,000 (LV)	–	47%	50%	3%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	Sep 4–5, 2021	1,357 (LV)	–	45%	42%	13%
Emerson College	Aug 30 – September 1, 2021	1,200 (RV)	± 2.7%	46%	47%	7%
Rasmussen Reports	Aug 16–17, 2021	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	37%	43%	20%
YouGov/Yahoo News	July 30 – August 2, 2021	1,552 (A)	–	47%	37%	16%
PMC/John Bolton Super Pac	July 8, 2021	1,000 (LV)	–	46%	43%	11%
YouGov/Yahoo News	June 22–24, 2021	1,592 (A)	–	47%	35%	18%
YouGov/Yahoo News	May 24–26, 2021	1,588 (A)	–	46%	36%	18%
YouGov/Yahoo News	May 11–13, 2021	1,561 (A)	–	48%	36%	16%
Ipsos/Reuters	April 12–16, 2021	1,106 (A)	–	45%	28%	27%
PMC/John Bolton Super Pac	Apr 3–7, 2021	1,000 (LV)	–	46%	42%	12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Matthew McConaughey

Poll source	Date	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Matthew McConaughey	Other/ Undecided
Echelon Insights	June 17–20, 2021	1,030 (RV)	–	39%	40%	11%	9%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Andrew Yang

Poll source	Date	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Andrew Yang Forward	Other/ Undecided
Echelon Insights	Oct 15–19, 2021	1,098 (RV)	–	44%	40%	5%	11%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other/ Undecided
YouGov/Yahoo News	July 28 – August 1, 2022	1,152 (RV)	–	45%	42%	13%
Echelon Insights	July 15–18, 2022	1,022 (LV)	–	45%	41%	14%
YouGov/Yahoo News	June 24–27, 2022	1,239 (RV)	–	45%	42%	13%
Rasmussen Reports	April 28 – May 2, 2022	1,004 (LV)	± 3.0%	35%	46%	19%
Marquette Law School	Mar 14–24, 2022	1,004 (A)	± 4.0%	38%	33%	29%
Morning Consult	January 22–23, 2022	2,005 (RV)	± 2.0%	44%	39%	17%
Marquette Law School^[ee]	Jan 10–21, 2022	1,000 (A)	–	41%	33%	26%
Harvard/Harris	Nov 30 – December 2, 2021	1,989 (RV)	–	43%	36%	21%
Emerson College	Aug 30 – September 1, 2021	1,200 (RV)	± 2.7%	48%	36%	16%
Echelon Insights	April 16–23, 2021	1,043 (RV)	–	45%	28%	27%
Ipsos/Reuters	April 12–16, 2021	1,105 (A)	–	41%	25%	34%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll source	Date	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Other/ Undecided
Ipsos/Reuters	April 12–16, 2021	1,107 (A)	–	44%	19%	37%

Joe Biden vs. Ted Cruz

Poll source	Date	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ted Cruz Republican	Other/ Undecided
Morning Consult	January 22–23, 2022	2,005 (RV)	± 2.0%	45%	39%	16%
Ipsos/Reuters	April 12–16, 2021	1,105 (A)	–	46%	24%	30%

Joe Biden vs. Mitt Romney

Poll source	Date	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Mitt Romney Republican	Other/ Undecided
Echelon Insights	Mar 18–21, 2022	1,050 (RV)	–	41%	35%	24%
Emerson College	Aug 30 – September 1, 2021	1,200 (RV)	± 2.7%	42%	23%	35%

Joe Biden vs. Mike Pence

Poll source	Date	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Mike Pence Republican	Other/ Undecided
Marquette Law School	Mar 14–24, 2022	1,004 (A)	± 4.0%	37%	33%	29%
Morning Consult	January 22–23, 2022	2,005 (RV)	± 2.0%	44%	42%	14%

Joe Biden vs. generic Republican

Poll source	Date	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Generic Republican	Other/ Undecided
Morning Consult	April 22–25, 2022	2,004 (RV)	± 2.0%	39%	46%	15%
Morning Consult	January 22–23, 2022	2,005 (RV)	± 2.0%	37%	46%	17%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided
YouGov/Yahoo News	July 28 – August 1, 2022	1,152 (RV)	–	45%	44%	11%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	July 29, 2022	1,094 (LV)	–	36%	42%	22%
Harvard/Harris	July 27–28, 2022	1,885 (RV)	–	40%	47%	13%
Echelon Insights	July 15–18, 2022	1,022 (LV)	–	46%	44%	10%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	July 9, 2022	1,078 (LV)	–	39%	43%	18%
Harvard/Harris	June 28–29, 2022	1,308 (RV)	–	39%	45%	16%
YouGov/Yahoo News	June 24–27, 2022	1,239 (RV)	–	44%	45%	11%
McLaughlin & Associates	June 17–22, 2022	1,000 (LV)	–	42%	50%	8%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	June 15, 2022	1,064 (LV)	–	37%	43%	20%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	May 30, 2022	1,173 (LV)	–	40%	46%	14%
Harvard/Harris	May 18–19, 2022	1,963 (RV)	–	40%	47%	14%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	May 17, 2022	1,120 (LV)	–	37%	44%	19%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	May 1, 2022	1,096 (LV)	–	39%	43%	18%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.	April 19–27, 2022	800 (LV)	–	49%	46%	6%
McLaughlin & Associates	April 22–26, 2022	1,000 (LV)	–	41%	51%	8%
Harvard/Harris	April 20–21, 2022	1,966 (RV)	–	41%	47%	12%
Echelon Insights	April 18–20, 2022	1,001 (LV)	–	43%	47%	10%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	April 18, 2022	1,500 (LV)	–	39%	45%	16%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	April 3, 2022	1,205 (LV)	–	35%	44%	21%
Harvard/Harris	Mar 23–24, 2022	1,990 (RV)	–	38%	49%	13%
McLaughlin & Associates	Mar 17–22, 2022	1,000 (LV)	–	42%	50%	8%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	March 20, 2022	1,193 (LV)	–	39%	42%	19%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	March 8, 2022	1,194 (LV)	–	37%	42%	21%
Schoen Cooperman Research	Mar 2–6, 2022	800 (LV)	–	43%	47%	10%
Harvard/Harris	Feb 23–24, 2022	2,026 (RV)	–	39%	51%	10%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	February 23, 2022	1,367 (LV)	–	41%	37%	22%
McLaughlin & Associates	Feb 16–22, 2022	1,000 (LV)	–	43%	50%	7%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.	February 3–9, 2022	800 (LV)	–	46%	45%	9%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	February 6, 2022	1,406 (RV)	–	40%	43%	17%
Harvard/Harris	Jan 19–20, 2022	1,815 (RV)	–	39%	49%	12%
McLaughlin & Associates	Jan 13–18, 2022	1,000 (LV)	–	40%	51%	9%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	January 8–9, 2022	1,430 (LV)	–	41%	41%	18%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	December 5, 2021	1,387 (LV)	–	38%	42%	20%
Harvard/Harris	Nov 30 – December 2, 2021	1,989 (RV)	–	41%	50%	9%
McLaughlin & Associates	Nov 11–16, 2021	1,000 (LV)	–	42%	50%	8%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	November 15, 2021	1,500 (RV)	–	33%	42%	25%
McLaughlin & Associates	Oct 14–18, 2021	1,000 (LV)	–	46%	49%	4%
Rasmussen Reports	Sep 21–22, 2021	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	39%	52%	9%
McLaughlin & Associates	Sep 9–14, 2021	1,000 (LV)	–	47%	49%	4%
McLaughlin & Associates	July 29 – August 3, 2021	1,000 (LV)	–	46%	49%	5%
Echelon Insights	June 18–22, 2021	1,001 (RV)	–	47%	40%	13%
McLaughlin & Associates	June 16–20, 2021	1,000 (LV)	–	45%	49%	6%
McLaughlin & Associates	May 12–18, 2021	1,000 (LV)	–	45%	49%	6%

Kamala Harris vs. Mike Pence

Poll source	Date	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Mike Pence Republican	Other/ Undecided
Echelon Insights	June 18–22, 2021	1,001 (RV)	–	45%	36%	19%

Kamala Harris vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other/ Undecided
Harvard/Harris	July 27–28, 2022	1,885 (RV)	–	41%	40%	19%
Echelon Insights	July 15–18, 2022	1,022 (LV)	–	43%	42%	15%
Harvard/Harris	June 28–29, 2022	1,308 (RV)	–	39%	37%	23%
YouGov/Yahoo News	June 24–27, 2022	1,239 (RV)	–	45%	43%	12%
Harvard/Harris	May 18–19, 2022	1,963 (RV)	–	41%	38%	20%
Harvard/Harris	April 20–21, 2022	1,966 (RV)	–	42%	38%	20%
Harvard/Harris	Mar 23–24, 2022	1,990 (RV)	–	40%	38%	22%
Harvard/Harris	Feb 23–24, 2022	2,026 (RV)	–	41%	39%	20%
Harvard/Harris	Jan 19–20, 2022	1,815 (RV)	–	39%	40%	21%
Harvard/Harris	Nov 30 – December 2, 2021	1,989 (RV)	–	42%	37%	21%
Harvard/Harris	Oct 26–28, 2021	1,578 (RV)	–	40%	42%	18%
Echelon Insights	Apr 16–23, 2021	1,043 (RV)	–	43%	31%	26%

Kamala Harris vs. Mike Pompeo

Poll source	Date	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Mike Pompeo Republican	Other/ Undecided
Harvard/Harris	Oct 26–28, 2021	1,578 (RV)	–	41%	41%	18%

Kamala Harris vs. Tim Scott

Poll source	Date	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Tim Scott Republican	Other/ Undecided
Harvard/Harris	Oct 26–28, 2021	1,578 (RV)	–	39%	42%	19%

Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Pete Buttigieg Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates	April 22–26, 2022	1,000 (LV)	–	39%	49%	12%
Harvard/Harris	Nov 30 – December 2, 2021	1,989 (RV)	–	37%	48%	15%

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Hillary Clinton Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates	Mar 17–22, 2022	1,000 (LV)	–	41%	51%	8%
Schoen Cooperman Research	Mar 2–6, 2022	800 (LV)	–	43%	46%	11%
McLaughlin & Associates	Feb 16–22, 2022	1,000 (LV)	–	43%	50%	7%
Echelon Insights	Jan 21–23, 2022	1,098 (RV)	–	43%	44%	13%
McLaughlin & Associates	Jan 13–18, 2022	1,000 (LV)	–	41%	51%	8%

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Bernie Sanders Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided
Emerson College	July 19–20, 2022	1,078 (RV)	± 2.9%	40%	45%	15%
Morning Consult	April 22–25, 2022	2,004 (RV)	± 2.0%	42%	43%	15%

Phil Murphy vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Phil Murphy Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates	April 22–26, 2022	1,000 (LV)	–	33%	49%	18%

Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Gavin Newsom Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided
YouGov/Yahoo News	June 24–27, 2022	1,239 (RV)	–	45%	43%	12%

Gavin Newsom vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Gavin Newsom Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other/ Undecided
YouGov/Yahoo News	June 24–27, 2022	1,239 (RV)	–	43%	42%	15%

Mark Cuban vs. Elon Musk

Poll source	Date	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Mark Cuban	Elon Musk	Other/ Undecided
Emerson College	May 24–25, 2022	1,148 (RV)	± 2.8%	20%	29%	50%

Timeline

Notes

^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j ^k ^l ^m ⁿ ^o ^p ^q ^r ^s ^t ^u ^v ^w ^x ^y ^z ^aa ^ab ^ac ^ad Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
^ Hillary Clinton with 9%; Joe Manchin, Amy Klobuchar, and "someone else" with 3%; Mike Bloomberg with 2%
^ Jill Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Gavin Newsom with 3% each
^ Hillary Clinton with 6%; "someone else" with 10%
^ Elizabeth Warren with 10%; Hillary Clinton with 6%
^ "Someone else" with 8%; Gavin Newsom with 4%
^ Elizabeth Warren with 8%
^ Democratic subsample of full sample of 1,574 likely voters
^ "Unlikely or very unlikely to vote for Biden" as opposed to "Absolute will or likely to vote for Biden" with 22%; Would not vote with 6%
^ "Consider voting for Biden" with 8%; Undecided with 7%
^ Hillary Clinton with 16%; "someone else" with 6%; Mike Bloomberg and Joe Manchin with 4%
^ Hillary Clinton with 8%
^ "Someone else" with 44%; Gretchen Whitmer with 4%; J. B. Pritzker with 3%.
^ Hillary Clinton with 7%; Joe Manchin, Matthew McConaughey, and Oprah Winfrey with 2%; Eric Adams, Tim Kaine, Phil Murphy, and Deval Patrick with 1%; Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper, Ilhan Omar, and Tom Steyer with 0%
^ "Someone else" with 3%; Gretchen Whitmer with 2%; Phil Murphy, J. B. Pritzker, Kyrsten Sinema, and Raphael Warnock with 1%; Eric Adams, Andy Beshear, Jared Polis, and Gina Raimondo with 0%; Roy Cooper and Mitch Landrieu with no voters
^ Hillary Clinton with 9%; Eric Adams, Tim Kaine, Joe Manchin, and Tom Steyer with 1%; Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper, Phil Murphy, Ilhan Omar, and Deval Patrick with 0%
^ Hillary Clinton with 7%; Joe Manchin and Tom Steyer with 2%; Eric Adams, Tim Kaine, and Deval Patrick with 1%; Kirsten Gillibrand and Ilhan Omar with 0%
^ Hillary Clinton with 9%; John Hickenlooper and Joe Manchin with 2%; Tim Kaine, Deval Patrick, and Tom Steyer with 1%; Eric Adams, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Ilhan Omar with 0%
^ Hillary Clinton with 9%; Joe Manchin with 2%; Eric Adams and John Hickenlooper with 1%; Kirsten Gillibrand, Tim Kaine, Ilhan Omar, Deval Patrick, and Tom Steyer with 0%
^ Gretchen Whitmer with 2%; Other/Don't know with 14%
^ "Someone else" with 3%; Michael Bloomberg with 2%; Sherrod Brown, Gretchen Whitmer, and Katie Porter with 1%
^ Joe Manchin with 1%; "Someone else", Andy Beshear, Tulsi Gabbard, Kyrsten Sinema and Gretchen Whitmer with 0%
^ Sherrod Brown with 4%
^ "Someone else", Tulsi Gabbard and Joe Manchin with 1%; Andy Beshear, Kyrsten Sinema and Gretchen Whitmer with 0%
^ Joe Manchin with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper, Tim Kaine, Deval Patrick and Tom Steyer with 1%; Ilhan Omar with 0%
^ Kirsten Gillibrand, Deval Patrick and Tom Steyer with 1%; John Hickenlooper, Tim Kaine and Ilhan Omar with 0%
^ John Hickenlooper with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand and Tim Kaine with 1%; Ilhan Omar with 0%
^ Sherrod Brown with 2%
^ John Hickenlooper with 2%; Tim Kaine, Deval Patrick and Ilhan Omar with 1%
^ Tim Kaine and Deval Patrick with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper and Ilhan Omar with 1%
^ Democratic subsample of full sample of 1,574 likely voters
^ "Someone else" with 26%; Julian Castro with 2%; John Bel Edwards with 1%
^ Kirsten Gillibrand and John Hickenlooper 2%; Tim Kaine, Ilhan Omar, and Deval Patrick with 1%
^ John Hickenlooper with 2%; Tim Kaine, Kirsten Gillibrand, Ilhan Omar, and Deval Patrick with 1%; Gavin Newsom with 0%
^ John Hickenlooper with 3%; Tim Kaine with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand, Ilhan Omar and Deval Patrick with 1%
^ Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper, Tim Kaine, Ilhan Omar, and Deval Patrick with 1%
^ John Hickenlooper with 3%; Kirsten Gillibrand, Tim Kaine and Deval Patrick with 1%
^ Kirsten Gillibrand with 3%
^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^ "Someone else" with 2%
^ Liz Cheney with 3%; Chris Christie with 1%
^ "Someone else" with 4%; Greg Abbott with 2%
^ Glenn Youngkin with 1%
^ Tom Cotton And Kristi Noem with 1%
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j ^k ^l ^m ⁿ ^o ^p ^q ^r ^s ^t ^u ^v ^w ^x Standard VI response
^ Candace Owens with 3%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
^ Liz Cheney with 2%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
^ Chris Christie with 7%; Kristi Noem with 3%
^ Liz Cheney and John Kasich with 2%; Tom Cotton, Candace Owens and Rick Scott with 1%; Kristi Noem with 0%
^ "Someone else" with 5%; Tom Cotton with 0%
^ John Kasich, Kristi Noem and Candace Owens with 2%; Liz Cheney with 1%; Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 0%
^ Kristi Noem with 1%; Tom Cotton with 0%
^ Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%
^ Candace Owens with 4%; Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, John Kasich and Rick Scott with 1%; Kristi Noem with 0%
^ "Trump should not run again in 2024" as opposed to "Trump should run again in 2024" with 19%
^ 22% of a full sample of 1,316 adults
^ "Do not want Trump to run" as opposed to "want Trump to run" with 30%
^ Candace Owens with 3%; John Kasich, Liz Cheney, Rick Scott, and Kristi Noem with 1%; Tom Cotton with 0%
^ Would not vote with 4%; "Someone else" with 2%; Liz Cheney and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
^ "Trump should not run again in 2024" as opposed to "Trump should run again in 2024" with 22%
^ Republican subsample of total sample of 1574 likely voters
^ "Unlikely or very unlikely to vote for Trump" as opposed to "Absolute will or likely to vote for Trump" with 24%; Would not vote with 3%
^ "Consider voting for Trump" with 8%; Undecided with 4%
^ John Kasich with 3%; Candace Owens with 2%; Tom Cotton, Rick Scott with 1%; Kristi Noem with 0%
^ Kristi Noem with 1%
^ Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%
^ On whether voters thought they'd support a Trump primary campaign if he ran
^ "Would definitely not vote for Trump" with 16%
^ Candace Owens with 3%; Tom Cotton and John Kasich with 2%; Kristi Noem and Tim Scott with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
^ "Someone else" with 12%; Tom Cotton with 1%
^ Would not vote with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
^ GOP and GOP-leaning subsample of a full sample of 1,006 registered voters
^ Among all adults (no Republican crosstab published). The same pollster showed 25% for Trump and 19% for Romney in November, when taking into account all voters and not only Republicans.^[148]
^ Ben Sasse with 3%; Rick Scott with 2%; Ivanka Trump with 1%
^ Listed as "Skipped"
^ Would not vote with 6%; "Someone else" with 5%; Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 1%
^ John Kasich and Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
^ "Would not like to see Trump run for president in 2024" with 21%
^ John Kasich with 3%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
^ Would not vote with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%; Charlie Baker with 0%
^ 37% of the full sample of 1,500 2020 general election voters
^ Ivanka Trump with 2%; Tom Cotton and Ben Sasse with 1%
^ Among 304 republican adults as opposed to all adults
^ John Kasich and Rick Scott with 2%; Rick Santorum with 1%
^ Republican subsample of 1,200 registered voters
^ Respondents who think Trump should do something other than running for president in 2024 with 43%
^ "Someone else" with 3%
^ "Someone else" with 38%; Greg Abbott with 4%; Tom Cotton with 2%.
^ Liz Cheney with 2%; Greg Abbott, Chris Christie, Tom Cotton, and Glenn Youngkin with 1%.
^ Liz Cheney, Greg Abbott, Chris Christie, Glenn Youngkin, Rick Scott, and "Someone else" with 1%; Larry Hogan, Tom Cotton, Ben Sasse, and Kristi Noem with 0%.
^ Liz Cheney and Kristi Noem with 2%; "Someone else", Greg Abbott, Chris Christie and Tom Cotton with 1%; Josh Hawley, Larry Hogan, Ben Sasse and Rick Scott with 0%
^ Candace Owens with 5%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney, John Kasich, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 2%; Tom Cotton with 1%
^ "Someone else" with 3%; Liz Cheney, Chris Christie, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and Kristi Noem with 1%; Greg Abbott, Ben Sasse, Rick Scott and Marjorie Taylor Greene with 0%
^ Candace Owens with 5%; Liz Cheney and John Kasich with 2%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
^ "Someone else" with 8%; Tom Cotton with 1%
^ Candace Owens with 6%; Ivanka Trump with 5%; Kristi Noem with 2%; Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton and John Kasich with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
^ No voters
^ "Someone else" with 1%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie, Larry Hogan, Ben Sasse and Rick Scott with 0%
^ Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 1%; Chris Christie with 0%
^ No voters
^ No voters
^ No voters
^ "Someone else" with 2%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney, Chris Christie, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%; Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and Ben Sasse with 0%
^ Ivanka Trump with 4%; Candace Owens with 3%; Liz Cheney with 2%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
^ Candace Owens with 5%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; John Kasich with 2%; Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
^ No voters
^ Liz Cheney with 3%; Greg Abbott, Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem, Ben Sasse and "Someone else" with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%; Dave Portnoy with no voters
^ Republican subsample of total sample of 1574 likely voters
^ "Someone else" with 19%; Kristi Noem and Ben Sasse with 1%
^ No voters
^ No voters
^ Kristi Noem and "Someone else" with 1%; Greg Abbott, Dave Portnoy and Rick Scott with 0%; Tom Cotton and Ben Sasse with no voters
^ Candace Owens with 4%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich with 2%; Rick Scott and Kristi Noem with 1%
^ Greg Abbott with 2%; "Someone else," Tom Cotton, Tim Scott, Kristi Noem, Ben Sasse, Rick Scott, Josh Hawley, and Dave Portnoy with 1% or less
^ Kristi Noem with 4%; Chris Christie, Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 1%
^ Candace Owens with 4%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Kristi Noem, and Tim Scott with 2%; Rick Scott with 1%
^ "Other" with 21%; Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 4%; Greg Abbott and Devin Nunes with 2%
^ "Someone else" with 16%; Tom Cotton with 3%
^ Dan Crenshaw, Kristi Noem, Ben Sasse and "Someone else" with 2%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Rand Paul with 1%; Greg Abbott, Dave Portnoy, and Elise Stefanik with 1% or less
^ GOP and GOP-leaning subsample of a full sample of 1,006 registered voters
^ Rand Paul with 3%; John Kasich and "Someone else" with 2%; Dan Crenshaw and Tom Cotton with 1%; Greg Abbott, Larry Hogan, Ben Sasse and Elise Stefanik with 0%
^ Among all adults (no Republican crosstab published). The same pollster showed 25% for Trump and 19% for Romney in November, when taking into account all voters and not only Republicans.^[148]
^ Ben Sasse and Ivanka Trump with 3%; Rick Scott with 2%
^ Ivanka Trump with 4%; John Kasich with 3%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem with 2%; Rick Scott with 0%
^ Among 304 republican adults as opposed to all adults
^ Rick Santorum with 3%; John Kasich and Rick Scott with 2%
^ John Kasich with 2%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
^ "Someone else" with 3%; Tom Cotton, Dan Crenshaw, Lindsey Graham and John Kasich with 2%; Ben Sasse and Elise Stefanik with 0%
^ Paul Ryan with 4%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; Kevin McCarthy with 2%
^ "Would vote for anyone other than Trump" with 9%; would not vote with 2%
^ "Would consider voting for Trump" with 20%; Undecided with 6%
^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^ Archived January 28, 2022, at the Wayback Machine
^ Archived November 20, 2021, at the Wayback Machine
^ Archived January 28, 2022, at the Wayback Machine

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[key-148] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j ^k ^l ^m ⁿ ^o ^p ^q ^r ^s ^t ^u ^v ^w ^x ^y ^z ^aa ^ab ^ac ^ad Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[149] Hillary Clinton with 9%; Joe Manchin, Amy Klobuchar, and "someone else" with 3%; Mike Bloomberg with 2%

[150] Jill Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Gavin Newsom with 3% each

[151] Hillary Clinton with 6%; "someone else" with 10%

[152] Elizabeth Warren with 10%; Hillary Clinton with 6%

[153] "Someone else" with 8%; Gavin Newsom with 4%

[154] Elizabeth Warren with 8%

[155] Democratic subsample of full sample of 1,574 likely voters

[156] "Unlikely or very unlikely to vote for Biden" as opposed to "Absolute will or likely to vote for Biden" with 22%; Would not vote with 6%

[157] "Consider voting for Biden" with 8%; Undecided with 7%

[158] Hillary Clinton with 16%; "someone else" with 6%; Mike Bloomberg and Joe Manchin with 4%

[159] Hillary Clinton with 8%

[160] "Someone else" with 44%; Gretchen Whitmer with 4%; J. B. Pritzker with 3%.

[161] Hillary Clinton with 7%; Joe Manchin, Matthew McConaughey, and Oprah Winfrey with 2%; Eric Adams, Tim Kaine, Phil Murphy, and Deval Patrick with 1%; Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper, Ilhan Omar, and Tom Steyer with 0%

[162] "Someone else" with 3%; Gretchen Whitmer with 2%; Phil Murphy, J. B. Pritzker, Kyrsten Sinema, and Raphael Warnock with 1%; Eric Adams, Andy Beshear, Jared Polis, and Gina Raimondo with 0%; Roy Cooper and Mitch Landrieu with no voters

[163] Hillary Clinton with 9%; Eric Adams, Tim Kaine, Joe Manchin, and Tom Steyer with 1%; Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper, Phil Murphy, Ilhan Omar, and Deval Patrick with 0%

[164] Hillary Clinton with 7%; Joe Manchin and Tom Steyer with 2%; Eric Adams, Tim Kaine, and Deval Patrick with 1%; Kirsten Gillibrand and Ilhan Omar with 0%

[165] Hillary Clinton with 9%; John Hickenlooper and Joe Manchin with 2%; Tim Kaine, Deval Patrick, and Tom Steyer with 1%; Eric Adams, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Ilhan Omar with 0%

[166] Hillary Clinton with 9%; Joe Manchin with 2%; Eric Adams and John Hickenlooper with 1%; Kirsten Gillibrand, Tim Kaine, Ilhan Omar, Deval Patrick, and Tom Steyer with 0%

[167] Gretchen Whitmer with 2%; Other/Don't know with 14%

[168] "Someone else" with 3%; Michael Bloomberg with 2%; Sherrod Brown, Gretchen Whitmer, and Katie Porter with 1%

[169] Joe Manchin with 1%; "Someone else", Andy Beshear, Tulsi Gabbard, Kyrsten Sinema and Gretchen Whitmer with 0%

[170] Sherrod Brown with 4%

[171] "Someone else", Tulsi Gabbard and Joe Manchin with 1%; Andy Beshear, Kyrsten Sinema and Gretchen Whitmer with 0%

[172] Joe Manchin with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper, Tim Kaine, Deval Patrick and Tom Steyer with 1%; Ilhan Omar with 0%

[173] Kirsten Gillibrand, Deval Patrick and Tom Steyer with 1%; John Hickenlooper, Tim Kaine and Ilhan Omar with 0%

[174] John Hickenlooper with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand and Tim Kaine with 1%; Ilhan Omar with 0%

[175] Sherrod Brown with 2%

[176] John Hickenlooper with 2%; Tim Kaine, Deval Patrick and Ilhan Omar with 1%

[177] Tim Kaine and Deval Patrick with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper and Ilhan Omar with 1%

[178] Democratic subsample of full sample of 1,574 likely voters

[179] "Someone else" with 26%; Julian Castro with 2%; John Bel Edwards with 1%

[180] Kirsten Gillibrand and John Hickenlooper 2%; Tim Kaine, Ilhan Omar, and Deval Patrick with 1%

[181] John Hickenlooper with 2%; Tim Kaine, Kirsten Gillibrand, Ilhan Omar, and Deval Patrick with 1%; Gavin Newsom with 0%

[182] John Hickenlooper with 3%; Tim Kaine with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand, Ilhan Omar and Deval Patrick with 1%

[183] Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper, Tim Kaine, Ilhan Omar, and Deval Patrick with 1%

[184] John Hickenlooper with 3%; Kirsten Gillibrand, Tim Kaine and Deval Patrick with 1%

[185] Kirsten Gillibrand with 3%

[186] Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

[187] "Someone else" with 2%

[188] Liz Cheney with 3%; Chris Christie with 1%

[189] "Someone else" with 4%; Greg Abbott with 2%

[190] Glenn Youngkin with 1%

[191] Tom Cotton And Kristi Noem with 1%

[standardvi-192] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j ^k ^l ^m ⁿ ^o ^p ^q ^r ^s ^t ^u ^v ^w ^x Standard VI response

[193] Candace Owens with 3%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%

[194] Liz Cheney with 2%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%

[195] Chris Christie with 7%; Kristi Noem with 3%

[196] Liz Cheney and John Kasich with 2%; Tom Cotton, Candace Owens and Rick Scott with 1%; Kristi Noem with 0%

[197] "Someone else" with 5%; Tom Cotton with 0%

[198] John Kasich, Kristi Noem and Candace Owens with 2%; Liz Cheney with 1%; Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 0%

[199] Kristi Noem with 1%; Tom Cotton with 0%

[200] Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%

[201] Candace Owens with 4%; Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, John Kasich and Rick Scott with 1%; Kristi Noem with 0%

[202] "Trump should not run again in 2024" as opposed to "Trump should run again in 2024" with 19%

[203] 22% of a full sample of 1,316 adults

[204] "Do not want Trump to run" as opposed to "want Trump to run" with 30%

[205] Candace Owens with 3%; John Kasich, Liz Cheney, Rick Scott, and Kristi Noem with 1%; Tom Cotton with 0%

[206] Would not vote with 4%; "Someone else" with 2%; Liz Cheney and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%

[207] "Trump should not run again in 2024" as opposed to "Trump should run again in 2024" with 22%

[208] Republican subsample of total sample of 1574 likely voters

[209] "Unlikely or very unlikely to vote for Trump" as opposed to "Absolute will or likely to vote for Trump" with 24%; Would not vote with 3%

[210] "Consider voting for Trump" with 8%; Undecided with 4%

[211] John Kasich with 3%; Candace Owens with 2%; Tom Cotton, Rick Scott with 1%; Kristi Noem with 0%

[212] Kristi Noem with 1%

[213] Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%

[214] On whether voters thought they'd support a Trump primary campaign if he ran

[215] "Would definitely not vote for Trump" with 16%

[216] Candace Owens with 3%; Tom Cotton and John Kasich with 2%; Kristi Noem and Tim Scott with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%

[217] "Someone else" with 12%; Tom Cotton with 1%

[218] Would not vote with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%

[219] GOP and GOP-leaning subsample of a full sample of 1,006 registered voters

[221] Among all adults (no Republican crosstab published). The same pollster showed 25% for Trump and 19% for Romney in November, when taking into account all voters and not only Republicans.^[148]

[222] Ben Sasse with 3%; Rick Scott with 2%; Ivanka Trump with 1%

[223] Listed as "Skipped"

[224] Would not vote with 6%; "Someone else" with 5%; Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 1%

[225] John Kasich and Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%

[226] "Would not like to see Trump run for president in 2024" with 21%

[227] John Kasich with 3%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%

[228] Would not vote with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%; Charlie Baker with 0%

[229] 37% of the full sample of 1,500 2020 general election voters

[230] Ivanka Trump with 2%; Tom Cotton and Ben Sasse with 1%

[231] Among 304 republican adults as opposed to all adults

[232] John Kasich and Rick Scott with 2%; Rick Santorum with 1%

[233] Republican subsample of 1,200 registered voters

[234] Respondents who think Trump should do something other than running for president in 2024 with 43%

[235] "Someone else" with 3%

[236] "Someone else" with 38%; Greg Abbott with 4%; Tom Cotton with 2%.

[237] Liz Cheney with 2%; Greg Abbott, Chris Christie, Tom Cotton, and Glenn Youngkin with 1%.

[238] Liz Cheney, Greg Abbott, Chris Christie, Glenn Youngkin, Rick Scott, and "Someone else" with 1%; Larry Hogan, Tom Cotton, Ben Sasse, and Kristi Noem with 0%.

[239] Liz Cheney and Kristi Noem with 2%; "Someone else", Greg Abbott, Chris Christie and Tom Cotton with 1%; Josh Hawley, Larry Hogan, Ben Sasse and Rick Scott with 0%

[240] Candace Owens with 5%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney, John Kasich, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 2%; Tom Cotton with 1%

[241] "Someone else" with 3%; Liz Cheney, Chris Christie, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and Kristi Noem with 1%; Greg Abbott, Ben Sasse, Rick Scott and Marjorie Taylor Greene with 0%

[242] Candace Owens with 5%; Liz Cheney and John Kasich with 2%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%

[243] "Someone else" with 8%; Tom Cotton with 1%

[244] Candace Owens with 6%; Ivanka Trump with 5%; Kristi Noem with 2%; Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton and John Kasich with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%

[245] No voters

[246] "Someone else" with 1%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie, Larry Hogan, Ben Sasse and Rick Scott with 0%

[247] Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 1%; Chris Christie with 0%

[248] No voters

[249] No voters

[250] No voters

[251] "Someone else" with 2%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney, Chris Christie, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%; Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and Ben Sasse with 0%

[252] Ivanka Trump with 4%; Candace Owens with 3%; Liz Cheney with 2%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%

[253] Candace Owens with 5%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; John Kasich with 2%; Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%

[254] No voters

[255] Liz Cheney with 3%; Greg Abbott, Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem, Ben Sasse and "Someone else" with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%; Dave Portnoy with no voters

[256] Republican subsample of total sample of 1574 likely voters

[257] "Someone else" with 19%; Kristi Noem and Ben Sasse with 1%

[258] No voters

[259] No voters

[260] Kristi Noem and "Someone else" with 1%; Greg Abbott, Dave Portnoy and Rick Scott with 0%; Tom Cotton and Ben Sasse with no voters

[261] Candace Owens with 4%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich with 2%; Rick Scott and Kristi Noem with 1%

[262] Greg Abbott with 2%; "Someone else," Tom Cotton, Tim Scott, Kristi Noem, Ben Sasse, Rick Scott, Josh Hawley, and Dave Portnoy with 1% or less

[263] Kristi Noem with 4%; Chris Christie, Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 1%

[264] Candace Owens with 4%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Kristi Noem, and Tim Scott with 2%; Rick Scott with 1%

[265] "Other" with 21%; Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 4%; Greg Abbott and Devin Nunes with 2%

[266] "Someone else" with 16%; Tom Cotton with 3%

[267] Dan Crenshaw, Kristi Noem, Ben Sasse and "Someone else" with 2%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Rand Paul with 1%; Greg Abbott, Dave Portnoy, and Elise Stefanik with 1% or less

[268] GOP and GOP-leaning subsample of a full sample of 1,006 registered voters

[269] Rand Paul with 3%; John Kasich and "Someone else" with 2%; Dan Crenshaw and Tom Cotton with 1%; Greg Abbott, Larry Hogan, Ben Sasse and Elise Stefanik with 0%

[270] Among all adults (no Republican crosstab published). The same pollster showed 25% for Trump and 19% for Romney in November, when taking into account all voters and not only Republicans.^[148]

[271] Ben Sasse and Ivanka Trump with 3%; Rick Scott with 2%

[272] Ivanka Trump with 4%; John Kasich with 3%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem with 2%; Rick Scott with 0%

[273] Among 304 republican adults as opposed to all adults

[274] Rick Santorum with 3%; John Kasich and Rick Scott with 2%

[275] John Kasich with 2%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%

[276] "Someone else" with 3%; Tom Cotton, Dan Crenshaw, Lindsey Graham and John Kasich with 2%; Ben Sasse and Elise Stefanik with 0%

[277] Paul Ryan with 4%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; Kevin McCarthy with 2%

[278] "Would vote for anyone other than Trump" with 9%; would not vote with 2%

[279] "Would consider voting for Trump" with 20%; Undecided with 6%

[280] Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

[281] Archived January 28, 2022, at the Wayback Machine

[282] Archived November 20, 2021, at the Wayback Machine

[283] Archived January 28, 2022, at the Wayback Machine

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 ===Republican Party===
-[[Donald Trump]] was defeated by [[Joe Biden]] in 2020 and is currently eligible to run again in 2024. If he decides to run, he would be seeking to become the second president after [[Grover Cleveland]] to serve two non-consecutive terms.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/27/opinions/trump-2024-presidential-run-dantonio/index.html|title=Trump 2024? It could happen|publisher=[[CNN]]|first=Michael|last=D'Antonio|date=November 27, 2020|access-date=December 16, 2020|archive-date=November 27, 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201127112444/https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/27/opinions/trump-2024-presidential-run-dantonio/index.html|url-status=live}}</ref><ref name="The Washington Post">{{cite news |last1=DeBonis |first1=Mike |last2=Kim |first2=Seung Min |title=House impeaches Trump with 10 Republicans joining, but Senate plans unclear |url=https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/house-impeaches-trump-with-10-republicans-joining-but-senate-plans-unclear/ar-BB1cJkw7?ocid=msedgntp |access-date=January 13, 2020 |newspaper=The Washington Post |publisher=MSN |issue=January 13, 2020 |date=January 13, 2020 |archive-date=February 9, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210209183800/https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/house-impeaches-trump-with-10-republicans-joining-but-senate-plans-unclear/ar-BB1cJkw7?ocid=msedgntp |url-status=live }}</ref> As of November 2021, Trump has been considered likely to receive the Republican presidential nomination if he runs.<ref name=":5a">{{Cite web|last=Bravender|first=Robin|date=November 10, 2021|title=A top campaign strategist for Ted Cruz and Glenn Youngkin says 'if Trump runs, Trump will be the nominee' in 2024|url=https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-republican-nominee-2024-biden-kamala-harris-jeff-roe-2021-11|access-date=January 9, 2022|website=Business Insider|language=en-US|quote=Immediately after Youngkin's upset win last week, political pundits started chattering about whether the Virginia governor-elect was on a fast track to the White House.|archive-date=January 9, 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220109061340/https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-republican-nominee-2024-biden-kamala-harris-jeff-roe-2021-11|url-status=live}}</ref> However, his chances have been damaged by recent developments: the [[United States House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack public hearings]] have hurt him in public opinion,<ref>{{cite web|url=https://theweek.com/donald-trump/1014514/58-percent-of-americans-say-trump-should-be-charged-with-a-crime-over-jan-6|title=58 percent of Americans say Trump should be charged with a crime over Jan. 6, poll finds|publisher=The Week|first=Peter|last=Weber|date=June 20, 2022|access-date=July 13, 2022|archive-date=July 20, 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220720185144/https://theweek.com/donald-trump/1014514/58-percent-of-americans-say-trump-should-be-charged-with-a-crime-over-jan-6|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.npr.org/2022/06/28/1108376010/trumps-legal-exposure-may-be-growing-and-4-other-takeaways-from-the-jan-6-hearin|title=Trump's legal exposure may be growing – and 4 other takeaways from the Jan. 6 hearing|publisher=NPR|first=Domenico|last=Montanaro|date=June 28, 2022|access-date=July 13, 2022|archive-date=July 20, 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220720174924/https://www.npr.org/2022/06/28/1108376010/trumps-legal-exposure-may-be-growing-and-4-other-takeaways-from-the-jan-6-hearin|url-status=live}}</ref> Florida [[Governor of Florida|Governor]] [[Ron DeSantis]] raising more funds in the first half of 2022,<ref>{{Cite web |last=Margaritoff |first=Marco |date=2022-07-16 |title=Trump Fundraising Slows For First Time In 18 Months, Trails DeSantis |url=https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-fundraising-slows_n_62d2be11e4b0f69130305225 |access-date=2022-07-18 |website=HuffPost |language=en |archive-date=July 20, 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220720105743/https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-fundraising-slows_n_62d2be11e4b0f69130305225 |url-status=live }}</ref> and the possibility that Democrats could use the [[Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution
+[[Donald Trump]] was defeated by [[Joe Biden]] in 2020 and is currently eligible to run again in 2024. If he decides to run, he would be seeking to become the second president after [[Grover Cleveland]] to serve two non-consecutive terms.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/27/opinions/trump-2024-presidential-run-dantonio/index.html|title=Trump 2024? It could happen|publisher=[[CNN]]|first=Michael|last=D'Antonio|date=November 27, 2020|access-date=December 16, 2020|archive-date=November 27, 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201127112444/https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/27/opinions/trump-2024-presidential-run-dantonio/index.html|url-status=live}}</ref><ref name="The Washington Post">{{cite news |last1=DeBonis |first1=Mike |last2=Kim |first2=Seung Min |title=House impeaches Trump with 10 Republicans joining, but Senate plans unclear |url=https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/house-impeaches-trump-with-10-republicans-joining-but-senate-plans-unclear/ar-BB1cJkw7?ocid=msedgntp |access-date=January 13, 2020 |newspaper=The Washington Post |publisher=MSN |issue=January 13, 2020 |date=January 13, 2020 |archive-date=February 9, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210209183800/https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/house-impeaches-trump-with-10-republicans-joining-but-senate-plans-unclear/ar-BB1cJkw7?ocid=msedgntp |url-status=live }}</ref> As of November 2021, Trump has been considered likely to receive the Republican presidential nomination if he runs.<ref name=":5a">{{Cite web|last=Bravender|first=Robin|date=November 10, 2021|title=A top campaign strategist for Ted Cruz and Glenn Youngkin says 'if Trump runs, Trump will be the nominee' in 2024|url=https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-republican-nominee-2024-biden-kamala-harris-jeff-roe-2021-11|access-date=January 9, 2022|website=Business Insider|language=en-US|quote=Immediately after Youngkin's upset win last week, political pundits started chattering about whether the Virginia governor-elect was on a fast track to the White House.|archive-date=January 9, 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220109061340/https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-republican-nominee-2024-biden-kamala-harris-jeff-roe-2021-11|url-status=live}}</ref> However, his chances have been damaged by recent developments: the [[United States House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack public hearings]] have hurt him in public opinion,<ref>{{cite web|url=https://theweek.com/donald-trump/1014514/58-percent-of-americans-say-trump-should-be-charged-with-a-crime-over-jan-6|title=58 percent of Americans say Trump should be charged with a crime over Jan. 6, poll finds|publisher=The Week|first=Peter|last=Weber|date=June 20, 2022|access-date=July 13, 2022|archive-date=July 20, 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220720185144/https://theweek.com/donald-trump/1014514/58-percent-of-americans-say-trump-should-be-charged-with-a-crime-over-jan-6|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.npr.org/2022/06/28/1108376010/trumps-legal-exposure-may-be-growing-and-4-other-takeaways-from-the-jan-6-hearin|title=Trump's legal exposure may be growing – and 4 other takeaways from the Jan. 6 hearing|publisher=NPR|first=Domenico|last=Montanaro|date=June 28, 2022|access-date=July 13, 2022|archive-date=July 20, 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220720174924/https://www.npr.org/2022/06/28/1108376010/trumps-legal-exposure-may-be-growing-and-4-other-takeaways-from-the-jan-6-hearin|url-status=live}}</ref> Florida [[Governor of Florida|Governor]] [[Ron DeSantis]] raising more funds in the first half of 2022,<ref>{{Cite web |last=Margaritoff |first=Marco |date=2022-07-16 |title=Trump Fundraising Slows For First Time In 18 Months, Trails DeSantis |url=https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-fundraising-slows_n_62d2be11e4b0f69130305225 |access-date=2022-07-18 |website=HuffPost |language=en |archive-date=July 20, 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220720105743/https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-fundraising-slows_n_62d2be11e4b0f69130305225 |url-status=live }}</ref> and the possibility that Democrats could use the 14th Amendment to prevent Trump from running again.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Papenfuss |first=Mary |date=2022-07-18 |title=Dems Should Sue Now To Stop Trump Run Under Constitution Insurrectionist Ban: Lawyer |url=https://www.huffpost.com/entry/14th-amendment-constitution-insurrectionist-ban-trump-lawsuit-alan-morrison_n_62d49f2be4b0f6913031334b |access-date=2022-07-18 |website=HuffPost |language=en |archive-date=July 21, 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220721053559/https://www.huffpost.com/entry/14th-amendment-constitution-insurrectionist-ban-trump-lawsuit-alan-morrison_n_62d49f2be4b0f6913031334b |url-status=live }}</ref> If Trump runs against President Biden again, it will be the first presidential rematch since the [[1956 United States presidential election|1956 presidential election]]. The last president to run after leaving office was [[Theodore Roosevelt]], who came in second in [[1912 United States presidential election|the 1912 election]] as the presidential nominee of the [[Progressive Party (United States, 1912)|Progressive Party]], although [[Herbert Hoover]] did briefly seek the Republican presidential nomination at national conventions subsequent to his leaving office in 1933. Trump would also be the first person to win the Republican presidential nomination three consecutive times, and the first to win it three times since Nixon.
-|14th Amendment]] to prevent Trump from running again.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Papenfuss |first=Mary |date=2022-07-18 |title=Dems Should Sue Now To Stop Trump Run Under Constitution Insurrectionist Ban: Lawyer |url=https://www.huffpost.com/entry/14th-amendment-constitution-insurrectionist-ban-trump-lawsuit-alan-morrison_n_62d49f2be4b0f6913031334b |access-date=2022-07-18 |website=HuffPost |language=en |archive-date=July 21, 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220721053559/https://www.huffpost.com/entry/14th-amendment-constitution-insurrectionist-ban-trump-lawsuit-alan-morrison_n_62d49f2be4b0f6913031334b |url-status=live }}</ref> If Trump runs against President Biden again, it will be the first presidential rematch since the [[1956 United States presidential election|1956 presidential election]]. The last president to run after leaving office was [[Theodore Roosevelt]], who came in second in [[1912 United States presidential election|the 1912 election]] as the presidential nominee of the [[Progressive Party (United States, 1912)|Progressive Party]], although [[Herbert Hoover]] did briefly seek the Republican presidential nomination at national conventions subsequent to his leaving office in 1933. Trump would also be the first person to win the Republican presidential nomination three consecutive times, and the first to win it three times since Nixon.
 ====Publicly expressed interest====

(2023 ←) 2024 United States elections (→ 2025)
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Background

Procedure

Effects of the 2020 census

Term limits

Potential campaign issues

COVID-19 pandemic

Abortion

Crime

Candidates

Democratic Party

Declared intent to run

Potential candidates

Declined to be candidates

Republican Party

Publicly expressed interest

Potential candidates

Declined to be candidates

Libertarian Party

Publicly expressed interest

Green Party

Publicly expressed interest

Independents, other third parties, or party unknown

Declared intent to run

Publicly expressed interest

Primary election polling

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Nationwide polling

Statewide polling

General election polling

Timeline

See also

Notes

References

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