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Revision as of 17:27, 22 May 2021
| 2021 Atlantic hurricane season | |
|---|---|
 Season summary map | |
| Seasonal boundaries | |
| First system formed | May 22, 2021 |
| Last system dissipated | Season ongoing |
| Strongest storm | |
| Name | Ana |
| • Maximum winds | 45 mph (75 km/h) (1-minute sustained) |
| • Lowest pressure | 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg) |
| Seasonal statistics | |
| Total depressions | 1 |
| Total storms | 1 |
| Hurricanes | 0 |
| Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+) | 0 |
| Total fatalities | None |
| Total damage | None |
| Related articles | |
The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing Atlantic hurricane season, which is part of the annual tropical cyclone season in the Northern Hemisphere. It will officially begin on June 1, 2021, and end on November 30, 2021. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most Atlantic tropical cyclones form.[1] However, tropical cyclogenesis is possible at any time of the year, as demonstrated by the early formation of Subtropical Storm Ana on May 22, making 2021 the seventh consecutive year that a storm formed before the official start of the season.[2]
Starting with this season, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began to issue regular Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15, two weeks earlier than it did in the past. This change was implemented in light of the fact that named systems had formed in the Atlantic Ocean prior to the official start of the season in each of the preceding six seasons.[3]
Seasonal forecasts
| Source | Date | Named storms |
Hurricanes | Major hurricanes |
Ref |
| Average (1991–2020) | 14.4 | 7.2 | 3.2 | [4] | |
| Record high activity | 30 | 15 | 7† | [5] | |
| Record low activity | 4 | 2† | 0† | [5] | |
| ––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– | |||||
| TSR | December 9, 2020 | 16 | 7 | 3 | [6] |
| CSU | April 8, 2021 | 17 | 8 | 4 | [7] |
| TSR | April 13, 2021 | 17 | 8 | 3 | [8] |
| UA | April 13, 2021 | 18 | 8 | 4 | [9] |
| NCSU | April 14, 2021 | 15–18 | 7–9 | 2–3 | [10] |
| TWC | April 15, 2021 | 18 | 8 | 3 | [11] |
| TWC | May 13, 2021 | 19 | 8 | 4 | [12] |
| NOAA | May 20, 2021 | 13–20 | 6–10 | 3–5 | [13] |
| UKMO* | May 20, 2021 | 14 | 7 | 3 | [14] |
| ––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– | |||||
| Actual activity |
1 | 0 | 0 | ||
| * June–November only † Most recent of several such occurrences. (See all) | |||||
In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the United Kingdom's Met Office, and Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray and their associates at Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. According to NOAA and CSU, the average Atlantic hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 contained roughly 14 tropical storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 72–111 units.[6] Broadly speaking, ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical storm multiplied by the length of time it existed. It is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical and subtropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 39 mph (63 km/h).[4] NOAA typically categorizes a season as either above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative ACE index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season are sometimes also considered.[4]
Pre-season forecasts
On December 9, 2020, TSR issued an extended range forecast for the 2021 hurricane season, predicting slightly above-average activity with 16 named storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an ACE index of about 127 units. TSR cited the expected development of a weak La Niña during the third quarter of 2021 as the main factor behind their forecast.[6] CSU released their first predictions on April 8, 2021, predicting an above-average season with 17 named storms, eight hurricanes, four major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 150 units, citing the unlikelihood of an El Niño and much warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the subtropical Atlantic.[7] TSR updated their forecast on April 13, with 17 named storms, eight hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, with an ACE index of 134 units.[8] On the same day, University of Arizona (UA) issued its seasonal prediction of above-average hurricane activities, with 18 named storms, eight hurricanes, four major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 137 units.[9] North Carolina State University (NCSU) made its prediction for the season on April 14, calling for an above-average season with 15 to 18 named storms, seven to nine hurricanes, and two to three major hurricanes.[10] On May 13, The Weather Company (TWC) updated their forecast for the season, calling for an active season, with 19 named storms, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes.[12] On May 20, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued their forecasts for the season, predicting a 60% chance of above-average activity and 30% chance for below-average activity, with 13-20 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes.[13] The following day, the United Kingdom's Met Office (UKMO) issued their own forecast for the 2021 season, predicting an average one with 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, with a 70% chance that each of these statistics will fall between 9 and 19, 4 and 10, and 1 and 5, respectively.[14]
Seasonal summary
The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season began with the early subtropical transition of Ana, which marked the seventh consecutive year in which a tropical cyclone formed before the official start of the season.
Systems
Subtropical Storm Ana
| |||
|---|---|---|---|
| |||
| As of: | 11:00 a.m. AST (15:00 UTC), May 22 | ||
| Location: | 34°18′N 63°00′W / 34.3°N 63.0°W ± 35 nm About 175 mi (280 km) NE of Bermuda | ||
| Sustained winds: | 40 knots (45 mph; 75 km/h) (1-min mean) gusting to 60 knots (70 mph; 110 km/h) | ||
| Pressure: | 1,006 mbar (29.71 inHg) | ||
| Movement: | WSW at 3 knots (3 mph; 6 km/h) | ||
| See more detailed information. | |||
On May 19, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began monitoring for the formation of a low northeast of Bermuda due to the potential for tropical or subtropical cyclogenesis.[15] On the next day, as forecast, a non-tropical low-pressure system developed approximately 600 miles (965 km) east-southeast of Bermuda,[16] with satellite estimates indicating gale-force winds were being produced by the low later that day.[17] The system began to gain subtropical characteristics on May 22 at 00:00 UTC,[18] and by that same day at 09:00 UTC, the NHC upgraded it to a subtropical storm, assigning it the name Ana.[19] Ana's motion shifted from west-southwestward to westward by later in the day while remaining embedded within a larger upper-level low and lacking any anticyclonic upper-level outflow, which prevented Ana from attaining status as a fully tropical cyclone.[20]
The approach of the precursor system of Ana warranted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch by the Bermuda Weather Service for the island of Bermuda on May 20.[21] The watch remained in effect as the system transitioned to a subtropical storm just to the northeast of the island on May 22.[22] The watch was discontinued shortly after, however.[20]
Current storm information
As of 12:00 a.m. AST (15:00 UTC) May 22, Subtropical Storm Ana is within 35 nautical miles of 34°18′N 63°00′W / 34.3°N 63.0°W, about 175 miles (280 km) northeast of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are 40 knots (45 mph; 75 km/h), with gusts to 60 knots (70 mph; 110 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 1006 mbar (29.71 inHg), and the system is moving west-southwest at 3 knots (3 mph; 6 km/h).
For the latest official information, see:
- The NHC's latest public advisory on Subtropical Storm Ana
- The NHC's latest forecast advisory on Subtropical Storm Ana
- The NHC's latest forecast discussion on Subtropical Storm Ana
Storm names
The following names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2021.[23] Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in the spring of 2022. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2027 season.[23] This is the same list used in the 2015 season, with the exceptions of Elsa and Julian, which replaced Erika and Joaquin, respectively.
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If there are more than 21 named storms this season, subsequent storms will take names from an auxiliary list of names approved by the WMO.[23] Previously, the Greek alphabet was used if a season's primary name list was exhausted; this happened in 2005 and again in 2020. This practice was discontinued as the 2020 season brought multiple shortcomings to light with the use of the Greek alphabet, such as that there was too much focus on how the Greek alphabet was used instead of reporting on the impacts of these tropical cyclones, as well as the difficulty found when such names had to be retired due to devastating impacts.[24]
Season effects
This is a table of all of the storms that have formed in the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s)–denoted by bold location names – damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all of the damage figures are in 2021 USD.
| Saffir–Simpson scale | ||||||
| TD | TS | C1 | C2 | C3 | C4 | C5 |
| Storm name |
Dates active | Storm category at peak intensity |
Max 1-min wind mph (km/h) |
Min. press. (mbar) |
Areas affected | Damage (USD) |
Deaths | Ref(s) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ana | May 22 – Present | Subtropical storm | 45 (75) | 1006 | Bermuda | None | None | |||
| Season aggregates | ||||||||||
| 1 systems | May 22 – Season ongoing | 45 (75) | 1006 | 0 | 0 | |||||
See also
- Tropical cyclones in 2021
- Atlantic hurricane season
- 2021 Pacific hurricane season
- 2021 Pacific typhoon season
- 2021 North Indian Ocean cyclone season
- South-West Indian Ocean cyclone seasons: 2020–21, 2021–22
- Australian region cyclone seasons: 2020–21, 2021–22
- South Pacific cyclone seasons: 2020–21, 2021–22
References
- ^ "Hurricane Season Information". Frequently Asked Questions About Hurricanes. Miami, Florida: NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. June 1, 2018. Retrieved April 13, 2021.
- ^ Cetoute, Devoun; Harris, Alex (May 22, 2021). "Subtropical Storm Ana forms. It's the seventh year in a row with an early named storm". Miami Herald. Retrieved May 22, 2021.
- ^ Allen, Greg (February 26, 2021). "Hurricane Forecasts Will Start Earlier In 2021". NPR. Retrieved February 27, 2021.
- ^ a b c "Background Information: North Atlantic Hurricane Season". College Park, Maryland: Climate Prediction Center. May 22, 2019. Retrieved April 5, 2021.
- ^ a b "Atlantic hurricane best track (HURDAT version 2)" (Database). United States National Hurricane Center. April 5, 2023. Retrieved May 1, 2024.
This article incorporates text from this source, which is in the public domain.
- ^ a b c Saunders, Marc; Lea, Adam (December 9, 2020). "Extended Range Forecast for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2021" (PDF). TropicalStormRisk.com. London, UK: Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, University College London. Retrieved April 16, 2021.
- ^ a b "CSU researchers predicting above-average 2021 Atlantic hurricane season". Fort Collins, Colorado: Colorado State University. April 8, 2021. Retrieved April 16, 2021.
- ^ a b Saunders, Marc; Lea, Adam (April 13, 2021). "April Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2021" (PDF). TropicalStormRisk.com. London, UK: Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, University College London. Retrieved April 16, 2021.
- ^ a b Davis, Kyle; Zeng, Xubin (April 13, 2021). "Forecast of the 2021 Hurricane Activities over the North Atlantic" (PDF). Tucson, Arizona: Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona. Retrieved April 16, 2021.
- ^ a b Peake, Tracy (April 14, 2021). "2021 Hurricane Season Will Be Active, NC State Researchers Predict". Raleigh, North Carolina: North Carolina State University. Retrieved April 16, 2021.
- ^ Belles, Jonathan; Erdman, Jonathan (April 15, 2021). "2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Expected to Be More Active Than Normal, The Weather Company Outlook Says". Hurricane Central. Atlanta, Georgia: The Weather Channel. Retrieved April 16, 2021.
- ^ a b Belles, Jonathan; Erdman, Jonathan (May 13, 2021). "2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Storm Numbers Increase in Our Latest Outlook". Hurricane Central. Atlanta, Georgia: The Weather Channel. Retrieved May 13, 2021.
- ^ a b "NOAA predicts another active Atlantic hurricane season". National Hurricane Center. May 20, 2021. Retrieved May 21, 2021.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ^ a b "UKMO North Atlantic tropical storm seasonal forecast 2021". UK Met Office. May 20, 2021. Retrieved May 21, 2021.
- ^ Stewart, Stacy (May 19, 2021). "Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Retrieved May 22, 2021.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ^ Stewart, Stacy (May 20, 2021). "Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Retrieved May 22, 2021.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ^ Beven, Jack (May 20, 2021). "Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Retrieved May 22, 2021.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ^ Latto, Andrew; Brown, Daniel (May 21, 2021). "Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Retrieved May 22, 2021.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ^ Cangialosi, John (May 22, 2021). "Subtropical Storm Ana Public Advisory Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Retrieved May 22, 2021.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ^ a b Beven, Jack (May 22, 2021). "Subtropical Storm Ana Forecast Discussion Number 2". www.nhc.noaa.gov. Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 22, 2021.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ^ "Weather Service Issue Tropical Storm Watch". Bernews. May 20, 2021. Retrieved May 22, 2021.
- ^ Beven, May 22, 2021. "Subtropical Storm Ana Public Advisory Number 1A". www.nhc.noaa.gov. Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 22, 2021.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ^ a b c "Tropical Cyclone Names". National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Retrieved April 13, 2021.
- ^ "WMO Hurricane Committee retires tropical cyclone names and ends the use of Greek alphabet". Geneva, Switzerland: World Meteorological Organization. March 17, 2021. Retrieved March 19, 2021.
External links
- National Hurricane Center Website
- National Hurricane Center's Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product
Tropical cyclones of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season | ||
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