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The next Madeiran regional election will be held on or before October 2028, the composition of the Legislative Assembly of the Autonomous Region of Madeira. The election will replace all 47 members of the Madeira Assembly, and the new members will then elect the President of the Autonomous Region.
The incumbent President since 2015 is Miguel Albuquerque, from the Social Democratic Party (PSD). The Social Democrats are defending their dominance in the islands, which they have held since 1976.
Background[edit]
After the 2024 election, despite being marred in an ongoing corruption investigation, the Social Democratic Party was once again the most voted party with 36.1% of the votes. Despite their victory, the PSD failed to win a majority of the seats.[1]
The Socialist Party (PS) led by former Funchal mayor Paulo Cafôfo achieved a similar result to the 2023 elections, with 21.3% of the votes. The big surprise of the election was the regionalist party Together for the People (JPP), who gained 4 seats from their previous 5 seats and who achieved 16.9% of the votes.[2] After the election, PS and JPP struck a deal in order to make a coalition government and prevent a government led by Albuquerque, despite not having a majority.[3]
Miguel Albuquerque negotiated a parliamentary support agreement with the CDS–People's Party (CDS–PP), their previous coalition partners, in order to form a minority government.[4] Albuquerque was appointed as President and will have a vote of confidence in the regional parliament.[5]
Albuquerque presented his government programme to the Speaker of the Regional Parliament, José Manuel Rodrigues, on 14 June 2024, with Miguel Albuqerque saying that policies of all Opposition parties were included in the document.[6] However, the Socialist Party (PS), Together for the People (JPP) and Chega (CH) announced they will vote against Albuquerque in the vote of confidence on 20 June 2024, thus putting at risk the continuity of the regional government.[7]
If the government programme is rejected, the government could remain in a caretaker capacity until a new one is nominated, under Albuquerque again, under a new PSD leader, or under someone else from the Opposition, or a snap election, which would be the third in just more than a year, is called for January 2025.[7]
Leadership changes and challenges[edit]
Liberal Initiative[edit]
Nuno Morna, regional party leader, announced on 16 June 2024 he was stepping down from the party's leadership, but remaining as regional Parliament member.[8][9] Duarte Gouveia, Morna's predecessor in the leadership post, announced his intention to return to the party's leadership.[10]
Electoral system[edit]
The current 47 members of the Madeiran regional parliament are elected in a single constituency by proportional representation under the D'Hondt method, coinciding with the territory of the Region.[11]
Parties[edit]
Current composition[edit]
The table below lists parties represented in the Legislative Assembly of Madeira before the election.
Name | Ideology | Leader | 2024 result | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% | Seats | |||||
PSD | Social Democratic Party Partido Social Democrata |
Liberal conservatism | Miguel Albuquerque | 36.1% | 19 / 47
| |
PS | Socialist Party Partido Socialista |
Social democracy | Paulo Cafôfo | 21.3% | 11 / 47
| |
JPP | Together for the People Juntos pelo Povo |
Centrism | Élvio Sousa | 16.9% | 9 / 47
| |
CH | Enough! Chega! |
National conservatism | Miguel Castro | 9.2% | 4 / 47
| |
CDS–PP | CDS – People's Party Centro Democrático Social – Partido Popular |
Christian democracy | José Manuel Rodrigues | 4.0% | 2 / 47
| |
IL | Liberal Initiative Iniciativa Liberal |
Classical liberalism | TBD | 2.6% | 1 / 47
| |
PAN | People Animals Nature Pessoas Animais Natureza |
Animal welfare | Mónica Freitas | 1.9% | 1 / 47
|
Opinion polls[edit]
Polls that show their results without distributing those respondents who are undecided or said they would abstain from voting, are re-calculated by removing these numbers from the totals through a simple rule of three, in order to obtain results comparable to other polls and the official election results.
Polling[edit]
Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | O | Lead | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 EP election | 9 Jun 2024 | — | 41.6 | 42.7 (23) |
26.0 (14) |
— | 9.1 (4) |
5.4 (2) |
1.9 (1) |
1.9 (1) |
2.9 (1) |
10.1 (1) |
16.7 | ||
2024 regional election | 26 May 2024 | — | 53.4 | 36.1 19 |
4.0 2 |
21.3 11 |
16.9 9 |
9.2 4 |
2.6 1 |
1.9 1 |
1.6 0 |
1.4 0 |
5.0 0 |
14.8 | |
References[edit]
- ^ SAPO. "PSD vence na Madeira, mas sem maioria". SAPO 24 (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-06-15.
- ^ Cunha, Mariana Lima. "JPP soma vitória eleitoral na Madeira. Afinal, qual é o segredo do partido dos "irmãos gauleses"?". Observador (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-06-15.
- ^ "PS Madeira e Juntos pelo Povo querem governar e não viabilizam PSD". Jornal de Notícias (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-06-15.
- ^ ECO (2024-05-28). "Miguel Albuquerque confirma acordo com CDS para apoio parlamentar na Madeira". ECO (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-06-15.
- ^ ECO (2024-05-28). "Miguel Albuquerque será indigitado presidente do Governo Regional da Madeira". ECO (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-06-15.
- ^ "Albuquerque diz haver condições para aprovar programa do Governo da Madeira". www.publico.com (in Portuguese). 14 June 2024. Retrieved 16 June 2024.
- ^ a b "Viabilização do Programa do Governo da Madeira em risco. JPP vai votar contra". www.sapo.pt (in Portuguese). 15 June 2024. Retrieved 16 June 2024.
- ^ "Nuno Morna deixa a liderança da IL-Madeira". www.dnoticias.pt (in Portuguese). 17 June 2024. Retrieved 18 June 2024.
- ^ "Nuno Morna mantém-se no parlamento". www.dnoticias.pt (in Portuguese). 17 June 2024. Retrieved 18 June 2024.
- ^ "Duarte Gouveia é candidato a suceder Nuno Morna". www.dnoticias.pt (in Portuguese). 17 June 2024. Retrieved 18 June 2024.
- ^ Comissão Nacional de Eleições - Eleição para a Assembleia Legislativa da Região Autónoma da Madeira 2007