In the run up to the next Slovak parliamentary election, various organisations are carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Slovakia. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous parliamentary election, held on 30 September 2023.
Electoral polling
[edit]Graphical summary
[edit]![](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/73/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Slovak_parliamentary_election.svg/1000px-Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Slovak_parliamentary_election.svg.png)
Voting intention estimates
[edit]Voting intention estimates made by polling firms that are members of the European Society for Opinion and Marketing Research (ESOMAR) and the Slovak Association of Research Agencies (SAVA). They are conducted in the form of telephone and personal interviews with selected persons, who form a representative sample reflecting the demographic parameters of the population of Slovakia. Respondents are asked: "Imagine that a parliamentary election would be held in Slovakia next Saturday. Would you vote in them and if so, which party would you vote for?" Respondents are read a list of currently active political parties.
Results are published that include only the answers of respondents who would vote for a particular party. The table shows political parties that have exceeded the electoral threshold in the last parliamentary election or oscillate above 4% in the polls. The electoral threshold is 5% for a single party, 7% for two- or three-party alliances, and 10% for party alliances of four or more parties. 76 seats are required for an absolute majority in the National Council.
Polling firm | Date | Sample size |
Smer | PS | Hlas | Slovakia–KÚ–ZĽ coalition | KDH | SASKA | SNS | Republika | Hungarian Alliance |
Democrats | SR | ĽSNS | Others | Lead | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Slovakia | ZĽ | KÚ | ||||||||||||||||
AKO[1] | 9–15 Jul 2024 | 1,000 | 23.5 | 21.7 | 15.5 | 3.5 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.8 | ||
NMS[2] | 4–8 Jul 2024 | 1,020 | 22.5 | 22.6 | 13.1 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 | |
Ipsos[3] | 26 Jun–01 Jul 2024 | 1,017 | 25.2 | 22.3 | 13.5 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 2.9 | ||
AKO[4] | 11–18 Jun 2024 | 1,000 | 23.8 | 22.8 | 15.2 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.1 | – | 0.8 | 1.0 | ||
Focus[5] | 5–12 Jun 2024 | 1,025 | 24.2 | 21.6 | 14.5 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.8 | – | – | 2.6 | ||
European elections | 8 Jun 2024 | 1,476,968 | 24.77 | 27.82 | 7.18 | 1.99 | 7.15 | 4.92 | 1.90 | 12.53 | 3.8 | 4.69 | – | 0.48 | 2.69 | 3.05 | ||
NMS[6] | 30 May–3 Jun 2024 | 1,020 | 22.4 | 23.7 | 15.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | – | 1.3 | |
Ipsos[7] | 14–21 May 2024 | 743 | 25.0 | 21.0 | 14.0 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.9 | – | – | 4.0 | ||
15 May 2024 | Attempted assassination of Robert Fico: Prime Minister Robert Fico is injured in a shooting which is being treated as an assassination attempt. | |||||||||||||||||
AKO[8] | 7–14 May 2024 | 1,000 | 21.8 | 20.8 | 17.2 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.1 | – | 0.6 | 1.0 | ||
NMS[9] | 9–13 May 2024 | 1,020 | 20.9 | 23.1 | 14.9 | 5.5 | 0.7 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 0.6 | – | 2.2 | |
Focus[10] | 17–24 Apr 2024 | 1,017 | 21.1 | 19.7 | 18.0 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.4 | ||
AKO[11] | 9–16 Apr 2024 | 1,000 | 21.2 | 20.1 | 16.5 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | ||
Focus[12] | 28 Mar–4 Apr 2024 | 1,015 | 21.6 | 20.1 | 17.9 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | – | 1.5 | ||
Ipsos[13] | 16–19 Mar 2024 | 1,009 | 21.6 | 20.2 | 16.3 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 3.0 | – | – | 1.4 | ||
AKO[14] | 11–18 Mar 2024 | 1,000 | 22.1 | 21.0 | 15.9 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | ||
Ipsos[15] | 12–16 Mar 2024 | 1,038 | 23.4 | 20.8 | 17.1 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 3.1 | – | – | 2.6 | ||
Ipsos[16] | 16–21 Feb 2024 | 1,028 | 22.7 | 21.3 | 16.5 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 1.4 | ||
Focus[17] | 14–21 Feb 2024 | 1,025 | 21.1 | 18.9 | 17.2 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 2.2 | ||
NMS[18] | 14–18 Feb 2024 | 1,022 | 21.0 | 22.0 | 16.9 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 1.0 | ||
AKO[19] | 5–12 Feb 2024 | 1,000 | 24.0 | 22.6 | 14.5 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.4 | ||
Ipsos[20] | 22–25 Jan 2024 | 1,022 | 24.5 | 20.6 | 15.4 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 3.9 | ||
Focus[21] | 16–23 Jan 2024 | 1,015 | 21.6 | 19.4 | 17.9 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 2.2 | ||
AKO[22] | 11–16 Jan 2024 | 1,048 | 22.1 | 19.9 | 14.3 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 2.2 | ||
NMS[23] | 10–14 Jan 2024 | 1,030 | 22.3 | 21.1 | 14.7 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | ||
Ipsos[24] | 13–18 Dec 2023 | 1,048 | 24.1 | 19.4 | 15.7 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 4.7 | ||
AKO[25] | 11–13 Dec 2023 | 1,000 | 24.2 | 21.4 | 14.6 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 0.2 | – | 2.8 | ||
Focus[26] | 15–22 Nov 2023 | 1,015 | 23.8 | 17.9 | 14.6 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 5.9 | ||
AKO[27] | 7–14 Nov 2023 | 1,000 | 24.0 | 20.1 | 15.4 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 3.9 | ||
Ipsos[28] | 2–7 Nov 2023 | 1,021 | 24.0 | 19.1 | 15.1 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 4.9 | ||
2023 elections | 30 Sep 2023 | 2,967,896 | 22.95 | 17.96 | 14.70 | 8.90 | 6.82 | 6.32 | 5.63 | 4.75 | 4.39 | 2.93 | 2.21 | 0.84 | 1.60 | 4.99 |
Seat projections
[edit]Polling firm | Date | Sample size |
Smer | PS | Hlas | Slovakia–KÚ–ZĽ coalition | KDH | SASKA | SNS | Republika | Hungarian Alliance |
Lead | Gov. | Opp. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AKO[29] | 9–15 Jul 2024 | 1,000 | 42 | 39 | 27 | 0 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 78 | 72 |
Ipsos[30] | 26 Jun–01 Jul 2024 | 1,017 | 47 | 42 | 25 | 0 | 12 | 11 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 72 | 78 |
AKO[31] | 11–18 Jun 2024 | 1,000 | 42 | 40 | 27 | 0 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 78 | 72 |
Focus[32] | 5–12 Jun 2024 | 1,025 | 43 | 38 | 25 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 68 | 82 |
AKO[33] | 7–14 May 2024 | 1,000 | 39 | 37 | 31 | 0 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 79 | 71 |
Focus[34] | 17–24 Apr 2024 | 1,017 | 38 | 36 | 33 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 80 | 70 |
AKO[35] | 9–16 Apr 2024 | 1,000 | 41 | 39 | 32 | 0 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 83 | 67 |
Focus[36] | 28 Mar–4 Apr 2024 | 1,015 | 40 | 37 | 33 | 0 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 82 | 68 |
AKO[37] | 11–18 Mar 2024 | 1,000 | 42 | 40 | 30 | 0 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 82 | 68 |
Focus[38] | 14–21 Feb 2024 | 1,025 | 39 | 35 | 32 | 0 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 82 | 68 |
AKO[39] | 5–12 Feb 2024 | 1,000 | 45 | 42 | 27 | 0 | 15 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 82 | 68 |
Focus[40] | 16–23 Jan 2024 | 1,015 | 43 | 38 | 35 | 0 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 89 | 61 |
AKO[41] | 11–16 Jan 2024 | 1,048 | 37 | 34 | 24 | 12 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 70 | 80 |
AKO[42] | 11–13 Dec 2023 | 1,000 | 43 | 38 | 26 | 0 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 78 | 72 |
Focus[43] | 15–22 Nov 2023 | 1,015 | 42 | 31 | 25 | 0 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 77 | 73 |
AKO[44] | 7–14 Nov 2023 | 1,000 | 47 | 39 | 30 | 0 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 87 | 63 |
2023 elections | 30 Sep 2023 | 2,967,896 | 42 | 32 | 27 | 16 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 79 | 71 |
References
[edit]- ^ "Prieskum: Oproti júnu sa preferencie zmenili minimálne, do parlamentu by prešli Republika aj SNS". Sme (in Slovak). 23 July 2024.
- ^ "Stranícky volebný model: O prvenstvo bojuje PS a Smer". NMS Global (in Slovak). 17 July 2024. Retrieved 17 July 2024.
- ^ "Smer stále na čele, Danka by v parlamente vystriedala Republika. Demokrati tesne pod piatimi percentami". Denník N (in Slovak). 2 July 2024. Retrieved 3 July 2024.
- ^ "Prieskum: Smer a Progresívne Slovensko výrazne posilnili, delí ich len percento". Sme (in Slovak). 22 June 2024. Retrieved 22 June 2024.
- ^ "Prieskum: Hlas výrazne stratil, Smer posilnil, rástla aj Republika". Sme (in Slovak). 18 June 2024. Retrieved 18 June 2024.
- ^ "Stranícky volebný model: Vo voľbách by zvíťazilo Progresívne Slovensko". NMS Global (in Slovak). 17 June 2024. Retrieved 18 June 2024.
- ^ "Prieskum Ipsosu: Eurovoľby by nevyhralo PS, ale Smer, Republika má deväť percent". Denník N (in Slovak). 22 May 2024. Retrieved 24 May 2024.
- ^ "Prieskum AKO: Voľby by v máji vyhral Smer pred PS a Hlasom". Sme (in Slovak). 27 May 2024. Retrieved 21 June 2024.
- ^ "Stranícky volebný model: Najvyššiu podporu má Progresívne Slovensko". NMS Global (in Slovak). 24 May 2024. Retrieved 24 May 2024.
- ^ "Republika späť v parlamente. Koalícii by pomohla k ústavnej väčšine". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 28 April 2024. Retrieved 28 April 2024.
- ^ "Preferencie sa zmenili minimálne, výrazne sa však k parlamentu priblížila Republika". Sme (in Slovak). 30 April 2024. Retrieved 1 May 2024.
- ^ "Parlamentné voľby by na prelome marca a apríla vyhral Smer, ukázal prieskum". Sme (in Slovak). 7 April 2024. Retrieved 7 April 2024.
- ^ "Smer mierne klesol, Dankova SNS je na štyroch percentách". Denník N (in Slovak). 27 March 2024. Retrieved 27 March 2024.
- ^ "Poradie na prvých troch miestach sa nemení, Smer je stále najsilnejší". Sme (in Slovak). 20 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
- ^ "Smer má 23 percent, protesty ním neotriasli. PS mierne zaostáva, darí sa aj Hlasu". Denník N (in Slovak). 18 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
- ^ "PS sa doťahuje na Smer a zväčšuje si potenciál. Od volieb zosilnel aj Hlas". Denník N (in Slovak). 26 February 2024. Retrieved 26 February 2024.
- ^ "Vládna koalícia by mala teraz v parlamente silnejšiu väčšinu". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 26 February 2024. Retrieved 3 March 2024.
- ^ "PS predbehlo Smer, SNS je mimo". Sme (in Slovak). 22 February 2024. Retrieved 22 February 2024.
- ^ "Smer si stále drží prvé miesto pred PS a Hlasom". Sme (in Slovak). 16 February 2024. Retrieved 16 February 2024.
- ^ "Smer sa drží na 25 percentách, neklesá ani Hlas. Od volieb najviac stratil Matovič". Denník N (in Slovak). 29 January 2024. Retrieved 29 January 2024.
- ^ "Po sto dňoch vlády by mala koalícia v parlamente ešte silnejšiu väčšinu". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 4 February 2024. Retrieved 4 February 2024.
- ^ "Smer je stále najsilnejší, zásadné posuny v preferenciách nenastali". Sme (in Slovak). 18 January 2024. Retrieved 19 January 2024.
- ^ "Účasť v koalícii sa SNS nedarí zúročiť". Sme (in Slovak). 19 January 2024. Retrieved 19 January 2024.
- ^ "Smer zostáva najsilnejší". Denník N (in Slovak). 20 December 2023. Retrieved 20 December 2023.
- ^ "Voľby by v decembri vyhral Smer". Sme (in Slovak). 14 December 2023. Retrieved 15 December 2023.
- ^ "Prieskum: Dve strany hlásia návrat do parlamentu". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 26 November 2023. Retrieved 26 November 2023.
- ^ "Prieskum AKO: Voľby by vyhral Smer, Matovičovej strane zatiaľ zmena názvu škodí". Sme (in Slovak). 16 November 2023. Retrieved 16 November 2023.
- ^ "Prvý povolebný model Ipsosu: Smer má 24 percent, PS 19. Matovičov nový názov ľudí mätie". Denník N (in Slovak). 13 November 2023. Retrieved 13 November 2023.
- ^ "Prieskum: Oproti júnu sa preferencie zmenili minimálne, do parlamentu by prešli Republika aj SNS". Sme (in Slovak). 23 July 2024.
- ^ "Smer stále na čele, Danka by v parlamente vystriedala Republika. Demokrati tesne pod piatimi percentami". Sme (in Slovak). 22 June 2024. Retrieved 3 July 2024.
- ^ "Prieskum: Smer a Progresívne Slovensko výrazne posilnili, delí ich len percento". Sme (in Slovak). 22 June 2024. Retrieved 22 June 2024.
- ^ "Prieskum: Hlas výrazne stratil, Smer posilnil, rástla aj Republika". Sme (in Slovak). 18 June 2024. Retrieved 18 June 2024.
- ^ "Prieskum AKO: Voľby by v máji vyhral Smer pred PS a Hlasom". Sme (in Slovak). 27 May 2024. Retrieved 21 June 2024.
- ^ "Republika späť v parlamente. Koalícii by pomohla k ústavnej väčšine". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 28 April 2024. Retrieved 28 April 2024.
- ^ "Preferencie sa zmenili minimálne, výrazne sa však k parlamentu priblížila Republika". Sme (in Slovak). 30 April 2024. Retrieved 1 May 2024.
- ^ "Parlamentné voľby by na prelome marca a apríla vyhral Smer, ukázal prieskum". Sme (in Slovak). 7 April 2024. Retrieved 7 April 2024.
- ^ "Poradie na prvých troch miestach sa nemení, Smer je stále najsilnejší". Sme (in Slovak). 20 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
- ^ "Vládna koalícia by mala teraz v parlamente silnejšiu väčšinu". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 26 February 2024. Retrieved 3 March 2024.
- ^ "Do parlamentu by sa podľa prieskumu dostalo šesť strán. Vyklikajte si možné koalície". Sme (in Slovak). 16 February 2024. Retrieved 16 February 2024.
- ^ "Po sto dňoch vlády by mala koalícia v parlamente ešte silnejšiu väčšinu". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 4 February 2024. Retrieved 4 February 2024.
- ^ "Smer je stále najsilnejší, zásadné posuny v preferenciách nenastali". Sme (in Slovak). 18 January 2024. Retrieved 19 January 2024.
- ^ "Voľby by v decembri vyhral Smer". Sme (in Slovak). 14 December 2023. Retrieved 15 December 2023.
- ^ "Prieskum: Dve strany hlásia návrat do parlamentu". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 26 November 2023. Retrieved 26 November 2023.
- ^ "Prieskum AKO: Voľby by vyhral Smer, Matovičovej strane zatiaľ zmena názvu škodí". Sme (in Slovak). 16 November 2023. Retrieved 16 November 2023.