Uttar Pradesh legislative assembly election, 2017

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All 403 seats of Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly 202 seats needed for a majority
Majority party Minority party Third party   File:Mayawati.JPG File:BJP election symbol.svg Leader Akhilesh Yadav Kumari Mayawati Not Declared Party SP BSP BJP Leader's seat MLC None - Last election 224, 29.13% 80, 25.91%[1] 47, 15% Seats before 97 206 51   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader Sheila Dikshit Jayant Chaudhary Party INC RLD Leader's seat None None Last election 28, 11.63% 09, 2.33% Seats before 22 10
Chief Minister before election Akhilesh Yadav Samajwadi Party Elected Chief Minister TBD

The 17th Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election will be held from February 11 to March 8, 2017 in 7 phases. In the previous election in 2012, the Samajwadi Party won a majority and formed government in the leadership of Akhilesh Yadav.

Background

Electoral process changes

In January 2016, the Election Commission of India published updated electoral rolls in all 403 assembly segments.^[2] In July 2016, Election Commission decided to increase the number of polling booths in Uttar Pradesh for the 2017 Assembly elections. New polling centres will be planned in the constituencies having more than 1,500 registered voters as well as polling booths in six constituencies of Muzaffarnagar, Budhana, Purkazi, Khatoli, Charthawal and Midanpur to be raised from 1,769 to 1,819 booths.^[3][4] Voter assistance booths would be set up and photo slip of voters in a new design would be sent to them. First time, the Form-2B would contain the photograph of the candidates and their nationality.

Voter-verified paper audit trail (VVPAT) machines will be used along with EVM in 20 assembly constituencies covering 14 districts including Varanasi,^[5] Ghaziabad^[6] and Bareilly constituency.^[7][8]

As per the special summary revision of electoral rolls, there are a total of 14.05 crore voters in Uttar Pradesh as of January 2015.^[10]

Other political developments^[relevant?]

In May 2016, Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched 11 solar-powered “e-boats” in Varanasi, in a move to reach out to Mallah community. On 26 December 2016, U.P Government government cleared the inclusion of 17 Other Backward Castes- Kahar, Kashyap, Kewat, Nishad, Bind, Bhar, Prajapati, Rajbhar, Batham, Gauriya, Turha, Majhi, Mallah, Kumhar, Dheemar, Dheewar and Machhua, in the Scheduled Castes (SC) category.

Caste and religion data

As per 2011 census, Dalits constitute 21.1% of Uttar Pradesh population.^[11][12][13] Mallah community is divided in 27 sub-castes. Other Backward Classes (OBCs) constitute 40% of U.P population.^{[14][15][16][17]} There are 200-odd non-Yadav OBCs in U.P. In Uttar Pradesh, Muslims are divided into 68 castes and sub-castes, 35 of them are OBCs. Forward castes constitute around 19% of Uttar Pradesh population,^[18] in which Brahmins are 10% and Thakurs are 7.6%.^[19][20] For accurate caste population data in India, Government of India has not publicly released Socio Economic and Caste Census 2011 caste population data for every single non-SC/ST castes (General castes, OBC/EBCs) in India.^{[21][22][23][24][25]}

Political developments

Bahujan Samaj Party

It is speculated that 2017 elections in Uttar Pradesh will be a close contest between Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)^[31][32] and Bharatiya Janata Party.^[33][34] From August 2016, BSP held series of ‘Sarvajan Hitay, Sarvajan Sukhay’ rallies starting from Agra, followed by mega rallies in Azamgarh, Allahabad and Saharanpur.^[35][36] In these rallies, Mayawati attacked misrule of Samajwadi Party, its communal politics and Bharatiya Janata Party's unfulfilled promises of achhe din.^[37][38]

BSP has given more than 100 tickets to Muslim candidates, highest in the state till date.^[39] In August 2016, four Muslim MLAs, 3 from Congress (Nawab Kazim Ali Khan, Dilnawaz Khan, Mohammad Muslim Khan) and 1 from Samajwadi Party (Nawazish Alam Khan) and also a former Bharatiya Janata Party minister Awadesh Kumar Verma joined BSP.^[40][41] It is speculated that Muslims may prefer BSP over SP in the upcoming elections.^[42]

Bharatiya Janata Party

BJP is trying to woo voters in Uttar Pradesh with Ram Janmabhoomi agenda.^[43] It is rumored that Mayawati is trying her best to gain from BJP's political activists, by making them join BSP, meanwhile alleging BJP of accepting the rejected politicians of BSP.^[44] On the other hand, political leaders from other parties have joined BJP in the run-up to the elections.^[45][46]

Indian National Congress

Congress declared Sheila Dikshit, three-time chief minister of Delhi as it CM candidate for 2017 elections. The duo of Raj Babbar, current president of Uttar Pradesh Congress Committee and Mrs. Dikshit may prove beneficial to Congress. Priyanka Gandhi is also expected to take part in Congress rallies, but it still remains a rumor. Veteran leader Rita Bahuguna joshi`s defection to BJP may impact its outreach to the powerful Brahmin community of UP. Congress party has hired Prashant Kishor, a famous poll strategist, to help the party to come back to power in Uttar Pradesh.^[47] However, general feeling is that the things are not working as planned and there is rift between Congress Party and Prashant Kishor's team.^[48]

Rahul Gandhi, the party Vice-President, in a bid to connect with farmers, held Kisan Yatra (farmers' rally), covering majority of constituencies, promising partial waiver of electricity bills and loans.

Samajwadi Party

On 28 March 2016, Samajwadi Party released its first candidate list of 142 contestants for Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections 2017. Party was expected to return into power in the forthcoming elections though the family clashes has wrecked its image.

In June 2016, Akhilesh Yadav Government undertook the seventh and last cabinet expansion.^[49]

On 30 December 2016, Mulayam Singh Yadav expelled his son Akhilesh Yadav and his cousin Ram Gopal Yadav from the party for six years on the grounds of indiscipline but re-inducted within 24 hours after a meet of 200 of the party’s 229 MLAs at Akhilesh residence.^[50] The ruling Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh split down the middle with the faction headed by Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav removing Mulayam Singh Yadav as party chief and appointing him in his place at a convention in which the group claimed support of the majority of legislators and district units.^[51]

Election issues

The most important issue is said to be law and order of the state^[52][53] and as in every election caste and religion will play the key reasons for voters.^[54] However, with the Supreme Court ruling that prohibited use of religion, caste or language to solicit votes, candidates wil have to refrain from communal politics. BJP may try to pop up the Army's alleged surgical strikes across LOC to invoke nationalist spirit. Instead of playing caste politics, focus of Congress this time has been on farmers' plight and waiver of loans. SP and BSP hope to win from their established vote bank electorate of minorities, scheduled castes and specific caste communities.

Another major issue which will impact this election is the Demonetization move, thereby the result of the election will even say to give a referendum on the acceptability of that decision.

Schedule

Election schedule

Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh will be held between 11 February to 8 March 2017. The term of the present government will end on 27 May 2017.^[55]

On 4 January 2017, The Election Commission of India announced the election schedule to the Legislative Assembly of Uttar Pradesh along with the other four state (Goa, Manipur, Punjab and Uttarakhand) which are due for an election. The entire election is scheduled into 7 phases.

Opinion polls

Various organisations/agencies will be conducting opinions polls to predict voter intentions in the upcoming legislative assembly elections.

See also

• 2017 elections in India

References

External links

• Chief Electoral Officer Uttar Pradesh