Russian invasion of Ukraine
Part of the Russo-Ukrainian War (outline)
Map of Ukraine as of 18 June 2024 (details):   Continuously controlled by Ukraine   Occupied by Russia   Regained from Russia
Date 24 February 2022 – present (2 years, 3 months, 4 weeks and 1 day) Location Ukraine, Russia, Black Sea Status Ongoing (list of engagements · territorial control · timeline of events)
Belligerents
Russia  Donetsk PR[a]  Luhansk PR[a] Supported by:  Belarus[b]	Ukraine[c]
Commanders and leaders
Vladimir Putin Aleksandr Dvornikov Gennady Zhidko Sergey Surovikin Valery Gerasimov	Volodymyr Zelenskyy Oleksandr Syrskyi Valerii Zaluzhnyi
Units involved
Order of battle	Order of battle
Strength
Pre-invasion at border: 169,000–190,000[d][4][5][6] Pre-invasion total: 900,000 military[7] 554,000 paramilitary[7] In February 2023: 300,000+ active personnel in Ukraine[8]	Pre-invasion total: 196,600 military[9] 102,000 paramilitary[9] July 2022 total: up to 700,000[10] September 2023 total: over 800,000[11]
Casualties and losses
Reports vary widely, see § Casualties for details.

On 24 February 2022, Russia began an invasion of Ukraine,^[12] in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War that began in 2014. It is the largest military attack in Europe since World War II.^[13][14][15]

Following the Ukrainian Revolution of Dignity in February 2014, Russia annexed Crimea and Russian-backed separatists seized part of south-east Ukraine, starting the war in Donbas.^[16][17] In 2021, Russia began a large military build-up along its border with Ukraine, leading to an international crisis. During this period, the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, espoused Russian irredentist views,^[18] questioned Ukraine's right to statehood,^[19][20] and accused NATO of threatening Russia's security,^[21] demanding that Ukraine be barred from ever joining the alliance.^[22] Putin also baselessly accused Ukraine of committing genocide against its Russian speakers.^[23][24] The United States and others accused Russia of planning to attack or invade Ukraine, which Russian officials repeatedly denied as late as 23 February 2022.^[28]

On 21 February 2022, Putin announced that Russia recognised the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic. These two self-proclaimed states in the Donbas region are controlled by pro-Russian separatists and are recognised by Russia alone.^[29] The next day, the Federation Council of Russia authorised the use of military force outside Russia's borders; Russian armed forces entered both territories the same day.^[30] On 24 February, about 5 am EET (UTC+2),^[31] Putin announced a "special military operation" to "demilitarise and denazify" Ukraine.^[32][33] Minutes later, missiles and airstrikes hit places across Ukraine, including the capital Kyiv, shortly followed by a large ground invasion from multiple directions.^[34][35] The president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, enacted martial law and general mobilisation.^[36][37]

Multi-pronged assaults were launched from Russia proper, Belarus, and the two occupied territories of Ukraine (Crimea and Donbas). Four war theatres developed: the Kyiv offensive, the Northeastern Ukraine offensive, the Eastern Ukraine offensive, and the Southern Ukraine offensive. Russian forces approached or besieged a number of key settlements, such as Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Mariupol, and Sumy,^[38] but met stiff military and local resistance, and began to experience logistical and other challenges that hampered their progress.^[39]

The invasion was widely condemned internationally. The United Nations General Assembly adopted Resolution ES-11/1 which deplored Russia's invasion of Ukraine, demanded a full withdrawal of Russian forces and a reversal of its decision to recognise the self-declared People's Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. Many countries imposed new sanctions which have triggered a financial crisis in Russia.^[40] Various countries gave humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine.^[41] Protests occurred around the world; those in Russia have been met with mass arrests and increased media censorship,^[42][43] including banning the terms "war" and "invasion".^[35] Some companies withdrew their products and services from sale in Russia and Belarus.

A consequence of the war is the Ukrainian refugee crisis, the world's fastest-growing refugee crisis since World War II, as well as the first major humanitarian crisis in Europe since the Yugoslav Wars of the 1990s.^[44][45] As of March 12, 2022, over 2,000,000 Ukranians have fled the country, primarily to Poland, but also to Hungary, Romania, Moldova, and Slovakia.^[46] Refugees are primarily women and children, as men aged between 18 and 60 years have been prohibited from leaving the country by the government.^[47][48][49]

Background

Post-Soviet context and Orange Revolution

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union (USSR) in 1991, Ukraine and Russia maintained close ties. In 1994, Ukraine agreed to accede to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as a non-nuclear-weapon state. Former Soviet nuclear weapons in Ukraine were removed to Russia and dismantled.^[50] In return, Russia, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US) agreed to uphold the territorial integrity and political independence of Ukraine through the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances.^[51][52] In 1999, Russia was one of the signatories of the Charter for European Security, which "reaffirmed the inherent right of each and every participating State to be free to choose or change its security arrangements, including treaties of alliance, as they evolve".^[53] In the years after the dissolution of the USSR, several former Eastern Bloc countries joined NATO, which Russian leaders described as a violation of Western powers' assurances that NATO would not expand eastward.^[22]

The 2004 Ukrainian presidential election was controversial. In November, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych was declared winner, despite allegations of vote-rigging by election observers.^[54] The results caused a public outcry in support of the opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko, and widespread peaceful protests challenged the outcome in what became known as the Orange Revolution. During the tumultuous months of the revolution, Yushchenko was poisoned by TCDD dioxin;^[55][56] he strongly suspected Russian involvement in his poisoning.^[57] After the Supreme Court of Ukraine annulled the initial election result, a second round re-run was held, bringing to power Yushchenko as president and Yulia Tymoshenko as prime minister and leaving Yanukovych in opposition.^[58] Russian president Vladimir Putin attended the 2008 Bucharest summit and participated in bilateral NATO–Russia talks indicating that he opposed Georgia and Ukraine's NATO membership bids.^[59] In June 2009, Yanukovych announced his intent to again run for president in the 2010 Ukrainian presidential election,^[60] which he subsequently won.^[61]

The Orange Revolution is often grouped together with other early-21st century protest movements, particularly within the former USSR, known as colour revolutions. According to Anthony Cordesman, Russian military officers viewed such colour revolutions as an attempt by the US and European states to destabilise neighbouring states and undermine Russia's national security.^[62] Putin accused organisers of the 2011–2013 Russian protests of being former advisors to Yushchenko, and described the protests as an attempt to transfer the Orange Revolution to Russia.^[63] Rallies in favour of Putin during this period were called "anti-Orange protests".^[64]

Euromaidan, Revolution of Dignity, and war in Donbas

In November 2013, a wave of large, pro-European Union (EU) protests erupted in response to President Yanukovych's sudden decision not to sign the EU–Ukraine Association Agreement, instead choosing closer ties to Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union. The Ukrainian parliament had overwhelmingly approved of finalizing the agreement with the EU.^[65] Russia had put pressure on Ukraine to reject it.^[66] The scope of the protests widened, with protesters opposing widespread government corruption, police brutality, and repressive anti-protest laws.^[67] In February 2014, clashes in Kyiv between protesters and Berkut special riot police resulted in the deaths of 100 protesters and 13 policemen; most of the victims were shot by police snipers.^[68] On 21 February 2014, Yanukovych and parliamentary opposition leaders signed an agreement calling for an interim government and early elections. The following day, Yanukovych fled Kyiv and then the country;^[69] the Verkhovna Rada, the Ukrainian parliament, voted to remove him from office.^[70][71][72] Leaders in Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine declared continuing loyalty to Yanukovych,^[73] leading to pro-Russian unrest.^[74] The state-controlled Russian media consistently portrayed the crisis in Ukraine as having been instigated by the post-Yanukovych Ukrainian government, and represented Euromaidan as being controlled by "ultranationalist", "fascist",^[75][76] "neo-Nazi",^[77] and "anti-Semitic" groups, with Right Sector a common theme.^[78]

The unrest was followed by the annexation of Crimea by Russia in March 2014 and the war in Donbas, which started in April 2014 with the formation of two Russia-backed separatist quasi-states: the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic.^[79][80] Russian troops were involved in the conflict.^[81][82][83] The Minsk agreements were signed in September 2014 and February 2015 in a bid to stop the fighting, although ceasefires repeatedly failed.^[84] A dispute emerged over the role of Russia: Normandy Format members France, Germany, and Ukraine understood Minsk as an agreement between Russia and Ukraine, whereas Russia insisted its role was that of a neutral mediator, pressing Ukraine to negotiate directly with representatives of the two separatist republics.^[85][86] In 2021, Putin refused offers from Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy for high-level talks, and the Russian government subsequently endorsed an article by former president Dmitry Medvedev arguing it was pointless to deal with Ukraine while it remained a "vassal" of the US.^[87]

The annexation of Crimea led to a new wave of Russian nationalism, with large parts of the Russian neo-imperial movement aspiring to annex more land from Ukraine, including the unrecognized Novorossiya.^[88] Analyst Vladimir Socor argued that Putin's 2014 speech after the annexation of Crimea was a de facto "manifesto of Greater-Russia Irredentism".^[89] In July 2021, Putin published an essay titled On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians, in which he reaffirmed his view that Russians and Ukrainians were "one people".^[90] American historian Timothy D. Snyder described Putin's ideas as imperialism,^[91] while British journalist Edward Lucas called it historical revisionism.^[92] Other observers regarded the Russian leadership as having a distorted view of modern Ukraine and its history.^[93][94][95] Ukraine and other European countries neighbouring Russia accused Putin of irredentism and of pursuing aggressive militaristic policies.^[96][97][98]

Prelude

Rise in tensions

From March to April 2021, Russia commenced a major military build-up near the Russo-Ukrainian border, followed by a second build-up between October 2021 to February 2022 in both Russia and Belarus.^[100] During these developments, the Russian government repeatedly denied it had plans to invade or attack Ukraine;^[26][101] those who issued the denials included Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov in November 2021, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov in January 2022,^[25] Russian ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov on 20 February 2022,^[26] and Russian ambassador to the Czech Republic Alexander Zmeevsky on 23 February 2022.^[27]

In early December 2021, following Russian denials, the US released intelligence of Russian invasion plans, including satellite photographs showing Russian troops and equipment near the Ukrainian border.^[102] The intelligence reported the existence of a Russian list of key sites and individuals to be killed or neutralized upon invasion.^[103] The US continued to release reports that accurately predicted the invasion plans.^[103]

Russian accusations and demands

In the months preceding the invasion, Russian officials accused Ukraine of inciting tensions, Russophobia, and the repression of Russian speakers in Ukraine. They also made multiple security demands of Ukraine, NATO, and non-NATO allies in the EU. These actions were described by commentators and Western officials as attempts to justify war.^[104][105] On 9 December 2021 Putin said that "Russophobia is a first step towards genocide".^[106][107] Putin's claims were dismissed by the international community,^[108] and Russian claims of genocide have been widely rejected as baseless.^{[23][24][109]}

Ukrainian President Zelensky declared that 16 February, a speculated date for the invasion, would be a "Day of Unity". Ukrainians were encouraged to "hang our national flags, put on blue and yellow ribbons, and show our unity to the whole world", as well as to sing the national anthem in public spaces at 10 am EET (UTC+2).^[110][111]

In a 21 February speech,^[112] Putin questioned the legitimacy of the Ukrainian state, repeating an inaccurate claim that "Ukraine never had a tradition of genuine statehood".^[113] He incorrectly described the country as having been created by Soviet Russia.^[19] To justify an invasion, Putin falsely accused Ukrainian society and government of being dominated by neo-Nazism, invoking the history of collaboration in German-occupied Ukraine during World War II,^[114][115] and echoing an antisemitic conspiracy theory which casts Russian Christians, rather than Jews, as the true victims of Nazi Germany.^[33][108] While Ukraine has a far-right fringe, including the neo-Nazi Azov Battalion and Right Sector,^[116][117] analysts have described Putin's rhetoric as greatly exaggerating the influence of far-right groups within Ukraine; there is no widespread support for the ideology in the government, military, or electorate.^[104][114] Ukrainian president Zelenskyy, who is Jewish, stated that his grandfather served in the Soviet army fighting against the Nazis;^[118] three of his family members died in the Holocaust.^[119]

During the second build-up, Russia issued demands to the US and NATO, including that a legally binding arrangement be agreed preventing Ukraine from ever joining NATO, and that there be a reduction in NATO forces stationed in Eastern Europe.^[121] Russia threatened an unspecified military response if NATO continued to follow an "aggressive line".^[122] These demands were largely interpreted as being non-viable; new NATO members had joined because their populations broadly preferred to move towards the safety and economic opportunities offered by NATO and the EU, and away from Russia.^[123] The demand for a formal treaty preventing Ukraine from joining NATO was also seen as unviable by Western officials as it would contravene the treaty's "open door" policy, although NATO showed no desire to accede to Ukraine's requests to join.^[124]

Alleged clashes (17–21 February)

Fighting in Donbas escalated significantly from 17 February 2022 onwards.^[125] The Ukrainians and the Russian separatists each accused the other of firing into their territory.^[126][127] On 18 February, the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics ordered mandatory emergency evacuations of civilians from their respective capital cities,^{[128][129][130]} although observers noted that full evacuations would take months.^[131] Ukrainian media reported a sharp increase in artillery shelling by the Russian-led militants in Donbas as attempts to provoke the Ukrainian army.^[132][133] On 21 February, Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) announced that Ukrainian shelling had destroyed an FSB border facility 150 metres from the Russia–Ukraine border in Rostov Oblast.^[134] On 21 February, the Russians announced that they had killed a group of five saboteurs that morning that had penetrated the border from Ukraine.^[135] Ukraine denied being involved and called it a false flag operation.^[136][137] Several analysts, including the investigative website Bellingcat,^[138] published evidence that many of the claimed attacks, explosions, and evacuations in Donbas were staged by Russia.^{[139][140][141]}

Escalation (21–23 February)

On 21 February at 22:35 (UTC+3),^[142] Putin announced that the Russian government would diplomatically recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics.^[143] The same evening Putin directed that Russian troops be deployed into Donbas, in what Russia referred to as a "peacekeeping mission".^[144][145] The 21 February intervention in Donbas was condemned by several members of the UN Security Council; none voiced support for it.^[146] On 22 February the Federation Council unanimously authorised Putin to use military force outside Russia.^[30] In response, Zelenskyy ordered the conscription of army reservists;^[147] the following day, the country's parliament proclaimed a 30-day nationwide state of emergency and ordered the mobilisation of all reservists.^{[148][149][150]} Meanwhile, Russia began to evacuate its embassy in Kyiv.^[151] The websites of the Ukrainian parliament and government, along with banking websites, were hit by DDoS attacks,^[152] widely attributed to Russian-backed hackers.^[153][154]

On the night of 23 February,^[155] Zelenskyy gave a speech in Russian in which he appealed to the citizens of Russia to prevent war.^[156][157] He also refuted Russia's claims about the presence of neo-Nazis in the Ukrainian government and stated that he had no intention of attacking the Donbas region.^[158] Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on 23 February that the separatist leaders in Donetsk and Luhansk had sent a letter to Putin stating that Ukrainian shelling had caused civilian deaths and appealing for military support from Russia.^[159] In response, Ukraine requested an urgent UN Security Council meeting,^[160] which convened at 21:30 (UTC−5).^[161] Half an hour into the emergency meeting Putin announced the start of military operations in Ukraine. Sergiy Kyslytsya, the Ukrainian representative, subsequently called on the Russian representative, Vasily Nebenzya, to "do everything possible to stop the war" or relinquish his position as president of the UN Security Council; Nebenzya refused.^[162][163]

Invasion and resistance

On 24 February, shortly before 06:00 Moscow Time (UTC+3), Putin announced that he had made the decision to launch a "special military operation" in eastern Ukraine.^[164][165] In his address, Putin stated there were no plans to occupy Ukrainian territory and that he supported the right of the peoples of Ukraine to self-determination.^[166][167] He said the purpose of the "operation" was to "protect the people" in the predominantly Russian-speaking region of Donbas who, according to Putin, "for eight years now, have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kyiv regime".^[168] Putin also stated that Russia sought the "demilitarisation and denazification" of Ukraine.^[169] Within minutes of Putin's announcement, explosions were reported in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa, and the Donbas regon.^[170] An allegedly leaked report for Russia's spy agency FSB claims that the intelligence agency was not warned about Putin's plan to invade Ukraine.^[171][172]

Immediately following the attack, Zelenskyy announced the introduction of martial law in Ukraine;^[173] the same evening, he ordered a general mobilisation of all Ukrainian males between 18 and 60 years old.^[37] Russian troops entered Ukraine from the north in Belarus (towards Kyiv); from the northeast in Russia (towards Kharkiv); from the east in the DPR and the LPR; and from the south in Crimea.^[174]

Russian equipment and vehicles were marked with a white Z military symbol (a non-Cyrillic letter), believed to be a measure to prevent friendly fire.^[100]

Northern front

The effort to take Kyiv included a main effort striking south from Belarus along the west bank of the Dnipro River, with the apparent attempt to encircle Kyiv from the west. It was supported by two separate axes of attack from Russia along the east bank of the Dnipro: the western at Chernihiv and the eastern at Sumy. The eastern axes of attack apparently intended to encircle Kyiv from the northeast and east.^[175][176]

In the Battle of Chernobyl, Russians took control of the ghost towns of Chernobyl and Pripyat;^[177] their advance was hindered by strong resistance from Ukrainian troops.^[178] Following their breakthrough in Chernobyl, the Russian advance was held at the Battle of Ivankiv, a northern suburb of Kyiv. Russian Airborne Forces attempted to seize two airfields around Kyiv in the Battle of Antonov Airport,^[179][180] and then at the Battle of Vasylkiv over Vasylkiv Air Base south of Kyiv on 26 February.^[181][182] These attacks appeared to have been an attempt by Russia to seize Kyiv rapidly, with Spetsnaz infiltrating into the city supported by airborne operations and a rapid mechanized advance from the north, but proved unsuccessful.^[183]

By early March, further Russian advances along the west side of the Dnipro were limited, suffering setbacks in the face of a strong Ukrainian defence.^[175][176] As of 5 March, a large Russian convoy, reportedly 64 kilometres (40 mi) in length, had made little progress toward Kyiv;^[184] the London-based think-tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) assessed the Russian performance from the north and east as "stalled".^[185] Advances along the Chernihiv axis had largely halted as the siege of Chernihiv began. Russian forces also continued advancing from the northwest of Kyiv, capturing Bucha, Hostomel, and Vorzel by 5 March,^[186][187] though Irpin remained contested as of 9 March.^[188] By 11 March, it was reported that the lengthy convoy had largely dispersed, taking up positions that offered tree cover. Rocket launchers were also identified.^[189]

Northeastern front

The Northeastern Ukraine offensive is a major thrust by Russian armed forces into the northeastern provinces (oblasts) of Chernihiv Oblast and Sumy Oblast and their eponymous administrative capitals. Currently, Chernihiv is under siege. The oblast's second largest city, Konotop, which is 90 kilometres (56 mi) from the Russian border, came under Russian control on 25 February.^[190][191] In Sumy Oblast, Russian forces almost captured Sumy city, just 35 kilometres (22 mi) from the Russian border, at the outset of hostilities, but in the ensuing Battle of Sumy, Ukrainian forces held the city amidst heavy urban fighting. According to Ukrainian sources, more than 100 Russian armoured vehicles were destroyed and dozens of soldiers were captured.^[192] Fighting was also taking place in Okhtyrka.^[193] In an assessment of the campaign on 4 March, Frederick Kagan wrote that the "Sumy axis is currently the most successful and dangerous Russian avenue of advance on Kyiv", and commented that the geography favoured mechanized advances as the terrain "is flat and sparsely populated, offering few good defensive positions".^[176] Russia has made the deepest advances along the Sumy axis in the east; the Russians won the Battle of Konotop, while the Battle of Sumy is ongoing. Russian forces moving along highways from Sumy reached Brovary, an eastern suburb of Kyiv, on 4 March.^[175][176]

Eastern front

In the east, Russian troops tried to capture Kharkiv, which is located less than 35 kilometres (22 mi) from the Russian border.^[194][195] In the Battle of Kharkiv, Russian tanks were met with strong resistance. On 28 February, the city was targeted by various missile attacks that claimed several lives. The battle was described by a Ukrainian presidential adviser as the "Stalingrad of the 21st century".^[196]

On the morning of 25 February, Russian Armed Forces advanced from DPR territory in the east towards Mariupol and encountered Ukrainian forces near the village of Pavlopil, where they were defeated.^{[197][198][199]} The Russian Navy reportedly began an amphibious assault on the Sea of Azov coastline 70 kilometres (43 mi) west of Mariupol on the evening of 25 February. A US defence official stated that the Russians were potentially deploying thousands of Russian Naval Infantry from this beachhead.^{[200][201][202]} On 1 March, Denis Pushilin, the head of the DPR, announced that DPR forces had almost completely surrounded the nearby city of Volnovakha and they would soon do the same to Mariupol.^[203] On 2 March, Russian forces were repelled from Sievierodonetsk during the Battle of Sievierodonetsk.^[204]

Southern front

On 24 February, Russian troops took control of the North Crimean Canal, allowing Crimea to obtain water supplies for the peninsula from the Dnieper river, which had been cut off since 2014.^[205] The siege of Mariupol began as the attack also moved east towards Mariupol, and linking the front with the Donbas separatist regions.^[193][206] On 1 March, Russian forces started preparing to resume their attack on Melitopol and other cities, starting the Battle of Melitopol.^[207] Ivan Fedorov, the mayor of Melitopol, later stated that the Russians had occupied the city.^[208]

Other Russian forces advanced north from Crimea on 26 February, with Russia's 22nd Army Corps approaching the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.^[209][210] On 28 February, they began the siege of Enerhodar in an attempt to take control of the nuclear power plant.^[211] A fire developed during the gun-battle.^[212] The International Atomic Energy Agency stated that essential equipment had not been damaged.^[213] By 4 March, the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant had been captured by Russian forces, but while fires were reported, there was no radiation leak.^[214]

A third axis of attack out of Crimea moved northwest, where Russian forces captured bridges over the Dnieper River.^[215] On 2 March, Russian troops won the Battle of Kherson, the first major city captured during the invasion.^[216] Russian troops then advanced to Mykolaiv, which stands between Kherson and Odesa. On 4 March, Ukrainian defenders repelled an attack in the Battle of Mykolaiv and recaptured Kulbakino Air Base.^[217]

The Horlivka offensive by Ukrainian forces began on 2 March;^[218] the city of Horlivka, in the Donetsk Oblast, had been mainly controlled by the DPR from 2014.^[219]

Air and naval engagements

On 24 February, the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine announced about 18:00 local time that an attack on Snake Island by Russian Navy ships had begun.^[220] The cruiser Moskva and patrol boat Vasily Bykov bombarded the island with their deck guns.^[221] When the Russian warship identified itself and instructed the Ukrainian soldiers stationed on the island to surrender, their response was "Russian warship, go fuck yourself!"^[222][223] After the bombardment, a detachment of Russian soldiers landed and took control of Snake Island.^[224] Russian forces also attacked the Chuhuiv air base on 24 February,^[225] which housed Bayraktar TB2 drones. The attack caused damage to fuel storage areas and infrastructure.^[226]

On 25 February, the Millerovo air base attack by Ukrainian military forces relied on OTR-21 Tochka missiles. According to Ukrainian officials, this destroyed several Russian Air Force planes and set the airbase on fire.^[227][228] In the Zhytomyr Airport attack on 27 February, it was reported that Russia used 9K720 Iskander missile systems, located in Belarus, to attack the civilian Zhytomyr Airport.^[229][230] Russia lost several aircraft on 5 March, including an Su-30SM, two Su-34, two Su-25, two Mi-24/Mi-35, two Mi-8 helicopters, and an Orlan unmanned aircraft.^[231] On 6 March, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported 88 Russian aircraft had been destroyed since the war began.^[232] However, an anonymous senior US defense official told Reuters on 7 March that Russia still had the "vast majority" of its fighter jets and helicopters that had been amassed near Ukraine available to fly.^[233]

Russia stated on 26 February that US drones were supplying intelligence to the Ukrainian navy to help target Russian warships in the Black Sea, which the US denied.^[234] By 3 March, the Ukrainian frigate Hetman Sahaidachny, the flagship of the Ukrainian navy, was scuttled in Mykolaiv to prevent its capture by Russian forces.^{[235][236][237]}

The Russian Air Force has played a far smaller role in the fighting than analysts had originally predicted. Analysts had expected that the far more numerous and better funded Russian Air Force would quickly be able to suppress the Ukrainian Air Force and air defences and then be able to closely support the Russian Army; in the first two weeks of fighting, the Russian Air Force played a minimal role and the Ukrainian Air Force and air defences remained effective. The nonperformance of the Russian Air Force has been attributed by The Economist to Russia's inability to suppress Ukraine's medium ranged surface to air missile batteries, Russia's lack of precision guided bombs, together with Ukrainian Mid Range SAM sites that force planes to fly low making them vulnerable to Stinger Missiles, and lack of training and flight hours for Russian pilots rendering them inexperienced for the type of close ground support missions typical of modern air forces.^[238]

Popular resistance

Ukrainian civilians have resisted the Russian invasion in various ways, such as volunteering to join local armed territorial defence units, making Molotov cocktails, donating food, constructing barriers,^[239] and helping to transport refugees.^[240]

Various tactics of unarmed civil resistance have been employed across Ukraine. Responding to the call from Ukraine's streets agency, Ukravtodor, civilians dismantled or altered local road signs, constructed makeshift barriers and blocked roadways. Social media reports and shared videos show spontaneous street protests against the Russian forces in occupied settlements, often evolving into verbal altercations and physical standoffs with Russian troops.^[241] On 9 March, the Armed Forces of Ukraine asked Ukrainians to report any sightings of Russian electronic warfare systems or vehicles. Attached photographs included those of a Krasukha-4, an Infauna (RB-531B), a Tigr-M MKTK REI PP Leer-2 VPK-233114, a Diabazol, an R-378A(B), an RB-341V Leer-3, an R-934B, and a Borisoglebsk-2.^[242]

In some instances, people physically blocked Russian military vehicles, sometimes forcing them to retreat.^[241][243] For instance, a video shot in occupied Kherson showed a man on top of a moving Russian armored personnel carrier, waving a Ukrainian national flag.^[244] The Russian soldiers' response to unarmed civilian resistance varied from reluctance to engage the protesters^[241] to firing into the air or directly into crowds.^[245] There have been mass detentions of Ukrainian protestors, and local Ukrainian media have also reported forced disappearances, mock executions, hostage-taking, extrajudicial killing, and sexual violence perpetrated by the Russian military to try and break the Ukrainian resistance to Russian rule.^[246]

Foreign military support to Ukraine

Since 2014, the UK, US, EU and NATO have provided mostly non-lethal military aid to Ukraine.^[247] From 2018, the US began selling lethal weaponry including Javelin anti-tank missiles,^[247] and in 2019 Ukraine agreed to purchase combat drones from Turkey.^[248] As Russia began building up its equipment and troops on Ukraine's borders, in January 2022 the US started approving some of the NATO member states to transfer their US-produced weapons to Ukraine.^[249] Following the invasion, some of the 30 members of NATO, including Germany and the UK, agreed to supply weapons, but NATO as an organisation did not.^{[41][250][251]} NATO, and its member states, said they would not send troops into Ukraine to defend the country,^[252][253] a decision which some experts have labelled as a policy of appeasement.^[254][255]

On 26 February, Blinken announced that he had authorised $350 million in lethal military assistance, including anti-armor and anti-aircraft systems.^[256][257] The next day the EU stated that it would purchase €450 million (US$502 million) in lethal assistance and an additional €50 million ($56 million) in non-lethal supplies to be supplied to Ukraine, with Poland acting as a distribution hub.^{[258][259][260]} EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell stated that the EU intended to supply Ukraine with fighter jets. Bulgaria, Poland, and Slovakia had MiG-29s, and Slovakia also had Su-25s, aircraft which Ukraine already flew and which could be transferred without pilot training.^[261] However, the planes' owners were reluctant to donate weapons critical for their own territorial defences, and feared that Russia could view it as an act of war if jets fly from their air bases to fight over Ukraine.^[262][263]

Foreign volunteers

Ukraine is actively seeking volunteers from other countries. On March 1, Ukraine temporarily lifted visa requirements for foreign volunteers who wish to enter the country and join the fight against Russian forces. The move came after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky created the International Legion of Territorial Defense and called on volunteers to “join the defense of Ukraine, Europe and the world.”^[264]

Ukraine's foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba stated that as of 6 March, approximately 20,000 foreign nationals from 52 countries have volunteered to fight for Ukraine.^[265] Most of these volunteers joined the newly created International Legion of Territorial Defense of Ukraine.^[265]

Reporters drew a parallel with the Spanish Civil War of 1936-1939, in which numerous foreigners, outraged at the Nazi-inspired military revolt against the democratically-elected 2nd Spanish Republic, formed International Brigades—the Abraham Lincoln Brigade, the Dimitrov Battalion, and many others.^[266]

Casualties and humanitarian impact

Casualties

Excluding the Russian soldiers, at least 22 people from eight countries besides Ukraine died because of the war. Below is a list of the nationalities of the foreign victims.

Foreign casualties of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

Country	Deaths	Reference(s)
Greece	12	[267][268]
Azerbaijan	4	[269]
Afghanistan	1	[270]
Algeria	1	[271]
Bangladesh	1	[272]
India	1	[271][273]
Iraq	1	[274]
Israel	1	[275]

Prisoners of war

There have been many instances of troops being captured by both Ukrainian and Russian forces throughout the invasion. On 8 March, a Ukrainian defence reporter with The Kyiv Independent announced that the Ukrainian government was working towards having Russian POWs work to help revive the Ukrainian economy, in full compliance with international law.^[276] Oksana Markarova, Ukraine's ambassador to the US, reported that a platoon of the 74th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade from Kemerovo Oblast surrendered to Ukraine, saying they "didn't know that they were brought to Ukraine to kill Ukrainians".^[277]

Ukrainian officials published photos and videos of killed and captured Russian soldiers.^[278] Amnesty International argued that Article 13 of the Third Geneva Convention prohibits videos of captured soldiers.^[279]

Refugees

The war has caused a major refugee and humanitarian crisis within Europe not seen since the 1990s Yugoslav Wars,^[280][44] and this has been cited as the fastest growing such crisis since World War II.^[281]

Because of the continued military build-up in Russia along the Ukrainian border, many neighbouring governments and aid organisations had been preparing for a mass displacement event in the weeks before the invasion. In December 2021, the Ukrainian defence minister estimated that an invasion could force three to five million people to flee their homes.^[282]

As of 28 February 2022, the UN said more than 500,000 refugees has fled Ukraine;^[283] this subsequently rose to over 2,00,000 as of 12 March. Most refugees were women, children, elderly, or people with disabilities.^{[284][285][286]} Most male Ukrainian nationals aged 18 to 60 were denied exit from Ukraine.^[287][e] Some Ukrainian teenagers remained in Ukraine to join the resistance against the Russian invasion.^[289] More than 66,200 Ukrainian men returned from abroad to fight.^[290]

War crimes

The invasion of Ukraine was appraised by many international jurists as a violation of the UN Charter and constituted a crime of aggression according to international criminal law, raising the possibility that the crime of aggression could be prosecuted under universal jurisdiction.^{[291][292][293]} The invasion also violated the Rome Statute, which prohibits "the invasion or attack by the armed forces of a State of the territory of another State, or any military occupation, however temporary, resulting from such invasion or attack, or any annexation by the use of force of the territory of another State or part thereof". Ukraine had not ratified the Rome Statute and Russia withdrew its signature from it in 2016.^[294]

On 25 February, Amnesty International (AI) said that it had collected and analysed evidence showing that Russia had violated international humanitarian law, including attacks that could amount to war crimes; it also said that Russian claims to be only using precision-guided weapons were false.^[295][296] AI and Human Rights Watch (HRW) said that Russian forces had carried out indiscriminate attacks on civilian areas and strikes on hospitals, including firing a 9M79 Tochka ballistic missile with a cluster munition warhead towards a hospital in Vuhledar, which killed four civilians and wounded ten others, including six healthcare staff.^[297][298] A maternity and children's hospital in Mariupol was targeted by a Russian air strike on 9 March 2022; a regional official stated that the attack happened during a pre-arranged ceasefire, and estimated that at least 17 people were injured as a result.^[299] Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, the governor of Sumy Oblast, said that at least six Ukrainians, including a seven-year-old girl, had died in a Russian attack during the Battle of Okhtyrka on 26 February, and that a kindergarten and orphanage had been hit.^[300]

On 28 February, AI and HRW denounced the use of cluster munitions and thermobaric weapons by Russian invasion forces in Ukraine. According to the UK's Ministry of Defence, Russia has confirmed it has used thermobaric weapons in Ukraine.^[301] The use of cluster munitions in war is prohibited by the Convention on Cluster Munitions of 2008, though Russia and Ukraine are not part of this convention.^[302] Both the Ukrainian and Russian governments have accused each other of using human shields.^[303][304] On 1 March, President Zelenskyy said there was evidence that civilian areas had been targeted during a Russian artillery bombardment of Kharkiv earlier that day, and described it as a war crime.^[305]

Legal proceedings against Russia

International Criminal Court

On 27 February, the Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba called for the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate the Okhtyrka kindergarten bombing.^[300] On 28 February, Karim Ahmad Khan, the chief prosecutor of the ICC, said he planned to open an investigation into allegations of war crimes in Ukraine "as rapidly as possible" following the ICC's preliminary examination of the case. Thirty-nine states officially referred the situation in Ukraine to the ICC. On 3 March, Khan announced that evidence was being collected of alleged war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide committed by individuals of all sides during the invasion and that a full investigation would be opened.^[306]

International Court of Justice

Ukraine filed a lawsuit against Russia before the International Court of Justice (ICJ), accusing Russia of violating the 1948 Genocide Convention (to which both Ukraine and Russia are parties) by falsely claiming genocide as a pretext for invading Ukraine.^[307] The International Association of Genocide Scholars supported Ukraine's request. Ukraine asked the ICJ to adopt provisional measures, an order directing Russia to halt its offensive in Ukraine. The ICJ granted Ukraine's request to expedite the proceedings.^[308] Russian representatives refused to appear at a court hearing at the Peace Palace in The Hague.^[309]

Other legal proceedings

Iryna Venediktova, the prosecutor general of Ukraine, has called for an ad hoc international criminal tribunal to be established to hold Russian officials responsible for waging the crime of aggression and for atrocities during the war. Domestic criminal proceedings have been opened in Estonia, Germany, Latvia, and Poland, investigating potential war crimes committed by Russia against Ukraine.^[310]

Peace efforts

On 28 February, Ukrainian and Russian negotiators started to hold rounds of talks in Belarus for reaching a ceasefire and ensuring humanitarian corridors for the evacuation of civilians. After three rounds of talks, an overall deal was not reached.^[311]

On 5 March, Russia declared a brief, five-and-a-half hour ceasefire in Mariupol and Volnovakha, to open humanitarian corridors for civilians to evacuate.^[312][313] Ukraine blamed Russian forces for repeatedly breaking the ceasefire by shelling the two cities;^[314][315] the Russian defence ministry stated the firing came from inside both cities against Russian positions.^[315] The International Committee of the Red Cross declared that the effort to evacuate civilians had failed.^[316] On the same day, Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett flew to Moscow and held three hours of meetings with Putin, before flying to Germany and holding meetings with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Bennett spoke in advance with Zelenskyy, who had previously asked for his help mediating, and coordinated with the US and France.^[317][318]

On 7 March, as a condition for ending the invasion, the Kremlin demanded Ukraine's neutrality, recognition of the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation in 2014, as Russian territory, and recognition of the self-proclaimed separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states.^[319] The same day, Russia declared a temporary ceasefire in Kyiv, Sumy, and two other cities, starting from 10:30 Moscow Time (UTC+3). The ceasefire had been announced to allow civilian evacuations from the four Ukrainian cities. The Russian army had announced the opening of several humanitarian corridors and exits in Ukraine.^{[320][321][322]}

On 8 March, Zelenskyy suggested a direct meeting with Putin to end the invasion and expressed willingness to discuss Putin's demands.^[323] Zelenskyy said he is ready for dialogue, but "not for capitulation".^[324] He proposed a new collective security agreement for Ukraine with the United States, Turkey, France, Germany and Russia as an alternative to the country joining NATO.^[325] Zelenskyy's Servant of the People party said that Ukraine would not give up its claims on Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk.^[326]

On 10 March, Foreign Ministers Sergey Lavrov and Dmytro Kuleba met for talks in Antalya, Turkey with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu as mediator in the first high-level contact between the two sides since the beginning of the invasion.^[327]

Media depictions

Throughout the invasion, messages, videos, photos, and audio recordings were widely shared across social media and news sites and by friends and family of Ukrainian and Russian citizens. While many were authentic, first-hand images of the conflict, others were images and videos of past conflicts and events or were otherwise misleading. Some of these were created to spread disinformation or propaganda.^{[328][329][330]}

Some observers have criticized Western media's portrayal of Ukraine's suffering as somehow different from the suffering in wars in countries like Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Iraq, Libya, Palestine, Syria, and Yemen.^{[331][332][333]}

Censorship and propaganda

The Russian censorship apparatus Roskomnadzor ordered the country's media to only employ information from Russian state sources or face fines and blocks, accusing a number of independent media outlets of spreading "unreliable socially significant untrue information" about the shelling of Ukrainian cities by the Russian army and civilian deaths.^[334][335] The Russian government has avoided referring to these events as a war or an invasion,^[336][337] and Roskomnadzor asked media agencies to describe the war as a "special military operation" (Russian: специальная военная операция, romanized: spetsial'naya voyennaya operatsiya),^[338] in line with Putin's speech to the nation on 24 February 2022:

In this regard, in accordance with Article 51 of Part 7 of the UN Charter, with the approval of the Federation Council of Russia and in pursuance of the treaties of friendship and mutual assistance ratified by the Duma on February 22 with the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, I decided to launch a special military operation.^[337]

— Vladimir Putin

Stories that describe the Russian invasion of Ukraine as an "assault", "invasion", or a "declaration of war" were ordered by the Russian government to be deleted.^[339] Roskomnadzor launched an investigation against the Novaya Gazeta, Echo of Moscow, inoSMI, MediaZona, New Times, Dozhd (TV Rain), and other Russian media outlets for publishing "inaccurate information about the shelling of Ukrainian cities and civilian casualties in Ukraine as a result of the actions of the Russian Army".^[340]

Russian state-controlled media, such as Russia-24,^[342] Russia-1, and Channel One, and pro-Kremlin TV pundits like Vladimir Solovyov mostly followed the government's narrative on the war.^{[343][344][345]} RT, a Russian state-controlled television network, was banned in Poland and suspended by television service providers in Australia,^[346] Canada,^[347] and Gibraltar.^[348][349] Many RT journalists resigned from RT following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.^[350][351] On 25 February, the hacking collective Anonymous conducted distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks on the RT website,^[352] as well as on the website of the Russian Ministry of Defence.^[353][354]

On 25 February, Russia announced that it was limiting access to Facebook; Russia's Foreign Ministry and the Prosecutor General's office announced that Facebook was violating the rights of Russian citizens.^[355] The company stated it had refused a Russian demand to stop fact-checking the posts made by four state-owned media organisations: Zvezda, RIA Novosti, Lenta.ru, and Gazeta.Ru.^[356] On 26 February, Facebook announced that it would ban Russian state media from advertising and monetising content on its platform^[357] and Russia restricted access to Twitter.^[358] On the same day, RIA Novosti published and then took down an article incorrectly saying that Russia had won the Russo-Ukrainian War and that "Ukraine has returned to Russia"; the article declared a "new world order" with "Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, acting in geopolitical terms as a single whole" to counter the rest of Europe.^[359][360] Facebook uncovered a Russian disinformation campaign using fake accounts, and attempts to hack the accounts of high-profile Ukrainians, which could be used to spread misinformation to large numbers of followers.^[361]

On 28 February, Russian teachers received detailed instructions on how to talk to students about the invasion of Ukraine.^[362] The Mayakovsky Theatre in Moscow received a government email "to refrain from any comments on the course of military actions in Ukraine", warning that any negative comments would be "regarded as treason against the Motherland".^[362] According to a poll by the Kremlin-funded VTsIOM, published on 28 February,^[363] 68% of surveyed Russians supported a "special operation in Ukraine", 22% opposed it, and 10% found it difficult to answer. Some observers noted what they described as a "generational struggle" among Russians over perception of the war, with younger Russians generally opposed to the war and older Russians more likely to accept the narrative presented by state-controlled mass media in Russia.^[364] Kataryna Wolczuk, an associate fellow of Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia programme, said: "[Older] Russians are inclined to think in line with the official 'narrative' that Russia is defending Russian speakers in Ukraine, so it's about offering protection rather than aggression."^[365] Many Ukrainians say that their relatives and friends in Russia trust what the state-controlled media tells them and refuse to believe that there is a war in Ukraine and that the Russian army is shelling Ukrainian cities.^{[366][367][368]}

On 1 March, YouTube announced that it would block Russian state-linked channels, including those of RT and Sputnik, across Europe, to prevent Russian disinformation.^[370] The same day, Roskomnadzor made demands for TikTok to stop including military-related content in recommended posts to minors, claiming much of the content was anti-Russian.^[371] Russian authorities also blocked access to Echo of Moscow and Dozhd, Russia's last independent TV station,^[372] claiming that they were spreading "deliberately false information about the actions of Russian military personnel", as well as "information calling for extremist activity" and "violence".^[373] Additionally, Roskomnadzor threatened to block access to the Russian Wikipedia in Russia over its article on the invasion (Вторжение России на Украину (2022)), claiming that the article contains "illegally distributed information", including "reports about numerous casualties among service personnel of the Russian Federation and also the civilian population of Ukraine, including children".^[374][375]

On 3 March, Echo of Moscow's board of directors voted to close the station down.^[376] On the same day, Natalya Sindeyeva, CEO of Dozhd, announced the suspension of broadcasting for an indefinite period due to coming legislative changes which would make it impossible to objectively cover an event.^[377]

On 4 March, Roskomnadzor blocked access to several foreign media outlets, including BBC News Russian, Voice of America, RFE/RL, Deutsche Welle, and Meduza, as well as Facebook and Twitter.^{[378][379][380]} Editors of the online publication Znak.com [ru] announced the suspension of its activities due to restrictions on media.^[381] President Putin also signed into law a bill introducing prison sentences of up to 15 years for those who publish "knowingly false information" about the Russian military and its operations, leading to some media outlets to stop reporting on Ukraine; he also signed into law a bill that would allow fines or prison sentences of up to three years for those calling for sanctions.^{[382][383][384]}

Within China, the Cyberspace Administration of China and various domestic social media companies (such as Douyin, Weibo, and Bilibili) have removed posts and suspended accounts about the war that were considered inappropriate, including jokes about the war, sexual comments about Ukrainian women, and both pro-war and anti-war statements.^{[385][386][387]} iQiyi Sports stated they would not broadcast the Premier League's matches on the weekend because of the league's planned shows of support for Ukraine.^[388]

Sanctions and ramifications

Sanctions

Western countries and others began imposing limited sanctions on Russia when it recognised the independence of Donbas. With the commencement of attacks on 24 February, a large number of other countries began applying sanctions with the aim of crippling the Russian economy. The sanctions were wide-ranging, targeting individuals, banks, businesses, monetary exchanges, bank transfers, exports, and imports.^{[389][390][391]}

The sanctions included cutting off major Russia banks from SWIFT, the global messaging network for international payments, although there would still be limited accessibility to ensure the continued ability to pay for gas shipments.^[393] Sanctions also included asset freezes on the Russian Central Bank, which holds $630 billion in foreign-exchange reserves,^[394] to prevent it from offsetting the impact of sanctions^{[395][396][397]} and implicated the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.^[398] By 1 March, the total amount of Russian assets being frozen by sanctions amounted to $1 trillion.^[399]

Several countries that are historically neutral, such as Switzerland and Singapore,^[401][402] have agreed to sanctions.^[403][404] Some countries also applied sanctions to Belarusian organisations and individuals, such as president Alexander Lukashenko, because of Belarus' involvement in the invasion.^[405]

On 27 February, Putin responded to the sanctions, and to what he called "aggressive statements" by Western governments, by ordering the country's "deterrence forces"—generally understood to include its nuclear forces—to be put on a "special regime of combat duty". This novel term provoked some confusion as to what exactly was changing, but US officials declared it generally "escalatory".^[406]

Following sanctions and criticisms of their relations with Russian business, a boycott movement began and many companies and organisations chose to exit Russian or Belarusian markets voluntarily.^[407] The boycotts impacted many consumer goods, entertainment, education, technology, and sporting organisations.^[408]

The US instituted export controls, a novel sanction focused on restricting Russian access to high-tech components, both hardware and software, made with any parts or intellectual property from the US. The sanction required that any person or company that wanted to sell technology, semiconductors, encryption software, lasers, or sensors to Russia request a licence, which by default was denied. The enforcement mechanism involved sanctions against the person or company, with the sanctions focused on the shipbuilding, aerospace, and defence industries.^[409]

Airspace

Russian airlines and private flights, with the exception of certain permitted flights such as those made for humanitarian reasons, were banned from national airspaces in the EU,^[410] UK,^[411] and US.^[412] Russia responded by banning several countries from its airspace.^[413] On 25 February, US carrier Delta Air Lines announced that it was suspending ties with Aeroflot.^[414]

Economic impact

Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, warned that the conflict posed a substantial economic risk for the region and internationally. She added that the Fund could help other countries impacted by the conflict, complementary to a $2.2 billion loan package being prepared to assist Ukraine. David Malpass, the president of the World Bank Group, said that the conflict would have far-reaching economic and social effects, and reported that the bank was preparing options for significant economic and fiscal support to Ukrainians and the region.^[415]

Despite unprecedented international sanctions against Russia, payments for energy raw materials were largely spared from these measures, as were food supplies because of the potential impact on world food prices. Russia and Ukraine are major producers of wheat that is exported through the Bosporus to Mediterranean and North African countries.^[416][417] The expulsion of some Russian banks from SWIFT is expected to affect the country's exports.^[418] Due to the fact that Russia is the largest trading and economic partner for post-Soviet states in Central Asia and a major destination for millions of CIS's migrant workers,^[419] Central Asia has been particularly hard hit by sanctions against Russia.^[420]

The major weapon manufacturers reported sharp rises in interim revenues and profits.^{[421][422][423]}

Russia

Economic sanctions affected Russia from the first day of the invasion, with the stock market falling by up to 39% (RTS Index). The Russian ruble fell to record lows, as Russians rushed to exchange money.^{[424][425][426]} Stock exchanges in Moscow and St. Petersburg were suspended until at least 9 March, making it the longest closure in Russia's history.^[427] On 26 February, S&P Global Ratings downgraded the Russian government credit rating to "junk", causing funds that require investment-grade bonds to dump Russian debt, making further borrowing very difficult for Russia.^[428]

The Central Bank of Russia announced interventions, its first since the 2014 annexation of Crimea, to stabilise the market.^[429] On 28 February, it raised interest rates to 20% and banned foreigners from selling local securities.^[430] According to a former deputy chairman of the Russian central bank, the sanctions put the Russian National Wealth Fund at risk of disappearing.^[431] With the value of the Russian ruble and the share prices for Russian equities falling on major exchanges, the Moscow Exchange was closed for a day, which since has been extended to over a week.^[432][433] As of 28 February, the price of Russia's credit default swaps signalled about a 56% chance of default.^[434] Fitch Ratings fears Russia will imminently default on its debts.^[435]

On 27 February, BP, one of the world's seven largest oil and gas companies and the single largest foreign investor in Russia, announced it was divesting from Rosneft.^[436] The Rosneft interest comprised about half of BP's oil and gas reserves and a third of its production. The divestment was thought likely to cost the company up to $25 billion and analysts noted that it was unlikely that BP would be able to recover anywhere near the value of Rosneft.^[437] The same day, the Government Pension Fund of Norway, the world's largest sovereign wealth fund, announced that it would divest itself from its Russian assets. The fund owned about 25 billion Norwegian krone ($2.83 billion) in Russian company shares and government bonds.^[438] The next day, Shell plc also announced that it would be pulling its investments in Russia.^[439] On 1 March, the Italian energy company Eni announced that it would cancel its investments into the Blue Stream pipeline.^[440] The same day, the world's largest shipping companies Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Company suspended all container shipments to Russia, excluding foodstuffs, medical, and humanitarian supplies.^[441][442]

Ukraine

The National Bank of Ukraine suspended currency markets, announcing that it would fix the official exchange rate. The central bank also limited cash withdrawals to 100,000 hryvnia per day and prohibited withdrawal in foreign currencies by members of the general public. The PFTS Ukraine Stock Exchange stated on 24 February that trading was suspended due to the emergency events.^[443]

Commodities

Russia is the world's largest exporter of grains, natural gas, and fertilisers and among the world's largest suppliers of crude oil and metals including palladium, platinum, gold, cobalt, nickel, and aluminium.^{[444][445][446]} As a result of the invasion, Brent oil prices rose above $130 a barrel for the first time since 2008.^[447] Some buyers voluntarily boycotted Russian oil and natural gas.^[448] Natural gas prices in Europe reached an all-time high of $3,700 per thousand cubic meters on 7 March at ICE Futures.^[449][450] The invasion threatened the energy supply from Russia to Europe,^[451][452] causing European countries to seek to diversify their energy supply routes.^[453][454] Supply chain chaos due to Russia's key role in energy and commodity trade could fuel global inflation.^[455] On 7 March, Scholz and other European leaders pushed back against the call by the US and Ukraine to ban imports of Russian gas and oil because "Europe's supply of energy for heat generation, mobility, power supply and industry cannot be secured in any other way".^[456]

The European Union indicated that it would cut its gas dependency on Russia by two-thirds in 2022.^[457] Germany stated that it would reduce its dependence on Russian energy imports by accelerating renewables and reaching 100% renewable energy generation by 2035.^[458][459] Before the invasion, the EU's energy strategy had focused more on the Green Deal and "Fit for 55" plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030.^[460]

At the time of the invasion, Ukraine was the fourth-largest exporter of corn and wheat, and the world's largest exporter of sunflower oil, with Russia and Ukraine together were responsible for 29% of the world's wheat exports and 75% of world sunflower oil exports.^[461] On 24 February, China announced that it would drop all restrictions on Russian wheat, in what the South China Morning Post called a potential "lifeline" for the Russian economy.^[462] On 25 February, the benchmark Chicago Board of Trade March wheat futures contracts reached their highest price since 2012, with the prices of corn and soybean also spiking.^[461] The head of the World Food Programme, David Beasley, warned that the war in Ukraine could take the global food crisis to "levels beyond anything we've seen before".^[463]

Saudi Arabia declined requests from the United States to increase its oil production.^[464][465] The Biden administration was pressed on potential oil deals with Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Iran.^[466]

Reactions

International organisations

United Nations

On 23 February, UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged Russia to immediately end aggression in Ukraine.^[467]

On 25 February, Russia vetoed a UN Security Council draft resolution "deploring, in the strongest terms, the Russian Federation's aggression", as expected. Eleven countries voted in favour while China, India, and the United Arab Emirates abstained.^[468] The UN Security Council voted to hold an emergency special session of the UN General Assembly to vote on a similar resolution,^[469] which was convened on 28 February.^[470] On 2 March, the UN General Assembly voted 141–5 to demand Russia stop the war and withdraw all of its military forces; 35 countries abstained, including Algeria, Bangladesh, China, India, Pakistan, and South Africa, while Belarus, Eritrea, North Korea, and Syria were Russia's sole supporters. Russia's UN representative said that the adoption of the resolution could fuel further violence.^[471]

During a meeting of the UN Human Rights Council on 1 March, over 100 diplomats walked out in protest over a speech by Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov.^{[472][473][474]}

NATO

Many NATO member states in Eastern Europe triggered security consultations under Article 4.^[476] The Estonian government issued a statement by Prime Minister Kaja Kallas saying: "Russia's widespread aggression is a threat to the entire world and to all NATO countries, and NATO consultations on strengthening the security of the Allies must be initiated to implement additional measures for ensuring the defence of NATO Allies. The most effective response to Russia's aggression is unity."^[477] On 24 February, Stoltenberg announced new plans that "will enable us to deploy capabilities and forces, including the NATO Response Force, to where they are needed".^[478] Following the invasion, NATO announced plans to increase military deployments^[479] in the Baltics, Poland, and Romania.^[480][481]

After the 25 February UN Security Council meeting, Stoltenberg announced that parts of the NATO Response Force would be deployed, for the first time ever, to NATO members along the Eastern border. He stated that forces would include elements of the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF), currently led by France.^[482] The US announced on 24 February that it would be deploying 7,000 troops to join the 5,000 already in Europe.^[482] NATO forces include the USS Harry S. Truman's Carrier Strike Group 8, which entered the Mediterranean Sea the previous week as part of a planned exercise. The carrier strike group was placed under NATO command, the first time this had occurred since the Cold War.^[483]

During the Cold War, Finland (Finlandization) and Sweden had remained neutral buffer states between NATO and the USSR. To retain their neutral status, both states minimised their cooperation with NATO. Following the Fall of Communism, both states increased their cooperation with NATO, while stoutly retaining their neutral status.^[484] Throughout the Cold War and the post-Communism era, majorities in both countries opposed joining NATO; however, with the increasing threat of Russia in the second decade of the 21st century, support for joining had begun to climb.^[485] As Russia began to build forces on Ukraine's border in the leadup to their invasion, both countries increased their cooperation with NATO.^[484] On 25 February, the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova threatened Finland and Sweden with "military and political consequences" if they attempted to join NATO, despite their ongoing commitment to neutrality. Both countries had attended the emergency NATO summit as members of NATO's Partnership for Peace, and both had condemned the invasion and had provided assistance to Ukraine.^[486] A public petition asking the Parliament of Finland to hold a referendum to join NATO reached the required 50,000 signatures, prompting a parliamentary discussion on 1 March. Finnish public opinion on joining NATO shifted after the invasion, with 53% in favour in the most recent poll compared to 30% in January.^[487] Swedish public opinion saw a similar shift, with 51% in favour in the most recent poll compared to 42% in January.^[488]

European Union

On 27 February, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen announced that the EU would ban Russian state-owned media outlets RT and Sputnik in response to disinformation and their coverage of the conflict in Ukraine.^[489] She also said that the EU would finance the purchase and delivery of military equipment to Ukraine and proposed a ban on Russian aircraft using EU airspace.^[490]

Individual countries

•  Russia itself – On 27 February, citing the new sanctions and "aggressive statements" received from the West, president Vladimir Putin placed Russia's nuclear forces on higher alert on 27 February,^[406] which raised concern from various analysts of a possible escalation of the conflict to a nuclear war, inadvertently or not.^[491]
•  China – On 2 March, The New York Times cited US officials who claimed that China had requested that Russia delay the invasion until after the completion of the Beijing Winter Olympics.^[492] Despite this, the invasion reportedly shocked many in China's establishment. Yun Sun, the director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, stated that China did not expect a full invasion, but rather a limited engagement in the east.^[493] The economic isolation of Russia as a result of Western sanctions has made the Russian economy increasingly dependent on China for trade and access to foreign exchange and financial markets; this position has given China massive leverage over Russia, which the EU has tried to take advantage of to end hostilities in Ukraine.^[494][495] Chinese officials have publicly sided with Russia throughout the war, and Chinese diplomats, government agencies, and state media organizations have worked to amplify conspiracy theories created by Russia such as the false claims of US Biological Weapons factories in Ukraine.^[496]
•  Germany – Germany had maintained a policy called Ostpolitik, choosing dependence on Russia energy to maintain peaceful relations with Russia and to integrate it in to Europe, while allowing defence spending to fall.^[497] In response to the invasion, Germany cancelled Nord Stream 2 and announced a new policy of energy independence from Russia admitting that Ostpolitik was a failure. In addition, Germany provided arms shipments to Ukraine, the first time that it provided arms to a country at war since the end of WW2. Germany also increased defence expenditures by approximately $100 billion, by some estimates making it the third largest military spender in the world.^[497] This change from a policy of appeasement to brinkmanship has been called a new epoch in German policy by The Economist.^[498]
•  India – Indian prime minister Narendra Modi appealed for an immediate cessation of violence in Ukraine, though he refrained from taking a stand on the issue and did not condemn the Russian invasion.^[499] The country was reportedly preparing a mechanism to trade with Russia using Indian rupees to avoid the impact of Western sanctions.^[500][501] As of 3 March, India has declined three times to condemn Russia's invasion at the UN, a stance supported by many Indians online.^[502][503]
•  Kazakhstan – According to the US National Security Council, Russia requested that Kazakhstan send its troops to assist in the offensive, to which Kazakhstan refused, responding that it did not recognise the Donetsk and Luhansk separatists and as such could not help with the invasion.^[504] Diplomatic sources in Kazakhstan later stated that no such request was made by Russia.^[505]

Protests

In Russia

Almost 2,000 Russians in 60 cities across Russia were detained by police on 24 February for protesting against the invasion, according to OVD-Info;^[506] by 6 March, it reported that more than 13,000 protestors had been detained overall,^[507] with over 5,000 detained that day.^[508] Russia's interior ministry justified these arrests due to the "coronavirus restrictions, including on public events" that continue to be in place.^[509] Russian authorities warned Russians of legal repercussions for joining anti-war protests.^[510] Nobel Peace Prize winner Dmitry Muratov announced that the Novaya Gazeta newspaper would publish its next edition in both Ukrainian and Russian. Muratov, journalist Mikhail Zygar, director Vladimir Mirzoyev, and others signed a document stating that Ukraine was not a threat to Russia and calling for Russian citizens to denounce the war.^[511]

Elena Chernenko, a journalist at Kommersant, circulated a critical open letter signed by 170 journalists and academics.^[512] Mikhail Fridman, a Russian oligarch, said that the war would "damage two nations who have been brothers for hundreds of years" and called for the "bloodshed to end".^[513] Three Communist members of parliament, who had supported the resolution recognising the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics believing it was a peacekeeping mission and not a full-scale invasion, were the sole members of the State Duma to speak out against the war.^[514] State Duma deputy Mikhail Matveev voted in favour of the recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics but later condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine.^[515] State Duma deputy Oleg Smolin said he was "shocked" by the invasion.^[516]

More than 30,000 technology workers;^[517] 6,000 medical workers; 3,400 architects;^[516] 4,300 teachers;^[362] 17,000 artists;^[518] 5,000 scientists;^[519] 1,200 students, faculty and staff of Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO);^[520] and 2,000 actors, directors, and other creative figures signed petitions calling for Putin's government to stop the war.^[340][521] Russian human rights activist Lev Ponomaryov started a petition to protest the invasion, garnering more than 750,000 signatures by 26 February.^[340] Some Russians who signed petitions against Russia's war in Ukraine lost their jobs.^[522] The founders of the Immortal Regiment commemoration movement, in which ordinary Russians annually march with photographs of veteran family members to mark World War II's Victory Day on 9 May, called on Putin to cease fire and described the use of force as "inhuman".^[521]

On 3 March, the multinational oil company Lukoil, the second largest company in Russia after Gazprom, called for a ceasefire and diplomatic means to solve the conflict.^[523]

Outside Russia

Protests in support of Ukraine were worldwide.^[f] In Prague, about 80,000 people protested in Wenceslas Square.^[538] On 27 February, more than 100,000 gathered in Berlin to protest against Russia's invasion.^[572] During the 2022 Belarusian constitutional referendum, protestors in Minsk chanted "No to war" at polling stations.^[573] On 28 February, instead of the traditional Cologne Carnival parade Rose Monday, which had been cancelled a few days earlier due to COVID-19,^[574][575] more than 250,000 (instead of the anticipated 30,000) gathered in Cologne in a peace march to protest against the Russian invasion;^[576] many protesters used the slogan "Glory to Ukraine".^[577]

Apart of the protests, there were also reported instances of Russophobia and discrimination against the Russian diaspora as a result of the war.^{[578][579][580]}

See also

• List of interstate wars since 1945
• List of ongoing armed conflicts
• Military history of the Russian Federation
• Post-Soviet conflicts
• Russo-Georgian War – 2008 conflict between Russia and Georgia
• Second Cold War – Term referring to heightened tensions in the 21st century
• Transnistria War – 1990–1992 conflict between Moldova and Russian-backed self-proclaimed Transnistria
• World War III – Hypothetical future global conflict

Explanatory notes

References