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Elections in Missouri |
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Missouri will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Missouri. Republican incumbent Josh Hawley is seeking a second term. He is being challenged by Democratic attorney Lucas Kunce. Primary elections took place on August 6, 2024.[1]
Background
[edit]From 1904 to 2004, Missouri's electoral votes always went to the winner of the presidential race, with only one exception: in 1956, during the landslide re-election of President Dwight Eisenhower, Missouri went to Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson. The state's accuracy in voting with the national consensus includes the highly competitive elections of 1960, 1976, and 2000.[2]
Missouri is no longer thought of as a perennial swing state, and is today considered to be a strongly red state. Since 1964, the only three Democrats it has backed have been Southerners: Lyndon B. Johnson, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton. In 2008, Missouri narrowly voted for the losing candidate, Republican John McCain, despite a sizable electoral college win for Democrat Barack Obama. In 2012, Missouri favored losing candidate Mitt Romney by nearly 10 percentage points, despite another significant victory for Obama in the rest of the country. In 2016 and 2020, Missouri again voted strongly Republican, this time for Donald Trump by over 15 points, despite Trump losing the latter election. This marked the third time in four presidential elections that Missouri supported a losing Republican. Missouri has not supported any Democratic candidate since Bill Clinton in 1996.[2]
In more recent years, Republicans have experienced significant electoral success in the state. In 2016, the Republican Party secured victories in key statewide positions, including Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Treasurer. Building on this momentum, in 2022, Scott Fitzpatrick successfully won the position of Auditor, a seat previously held by Democrat Nicole Galloway. Notably, Nicole Galloway remains the last Democrat to have been elected to a statewide position in the state.[3]
The most recent Democrat to secure election to the Senate from Missouri was Claire McCaskill back in 2012. She sought a third term in 2018, facing off against Josh Hawley, but was ultimately defeated by a margin of 5.8%.[4]
Most pollsters categorize this race as a secure one for the Republican Party.[5][6][7][8]
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Josh Hawley, incumbent U.S. senator[9]
Endorsements
[edit]- Organizations
Fundraising
[edit]Campaign finance reports as of July 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Josh Hawley (R) | $22,492,767 | $17,267,201 | $5,701,081 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[12] |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Josh Hawley (incumbent) | 606,831 | 100.0% | |
Total votes | 606,831 | 100.0% |
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Lucas Kunce, nonprofit executive and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[13]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Mita Biswas[14]
- December Harmon, member of the Columbia Police Review Board[15]
- Karla May, state senator (2019–present)[16]
Withdrawn
[edit]- Wesley Bell, St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney (running for U.S. House)[17]
Endorsements
[edit]- U.S. representatives
- Bill Clay, former U.S. representative from Missouri's 1st congressional district (1969–2001)[18]
- State officials
- Jason Kander, former Missouri Secretary of State (2013–2017)[19]
- Joe Maxwell, former lieutenant governor of Missouri (2000–2005)[20]
- Susan Montee, former Missouri State Auditor (2007–2011)[21]
- State senators
- Jacob Hummel, 4th district (2017–2019)[22]
- State representatives
- LaDonna Appelbaum, 71st district (2019–present)[23]
- Ingrid Burnett, 19th district (2017–present)[24]
- Steve Butz, 81st district (2019–present)[25]
- Kimberly-Ann Collins, 77th district (2021–present)[18]
- Chantelle Nickson-Clark, 67th district (2023–present)[18]
- Adrian Plank, 47th district (2023–present)[18]
- Municipal officials
- 4 St. Louis County councilors[26][27]
- Frank White Jr., Jackson County Executive (2016–present)[28]
- Local officials
- Rasheen Aldridge Jr., St. Louis alder from the 14th ward (2023–present) and former state representative from the 78th district (2019–2023)[18]
- Megan Green, president of the St. Louis Board of Aldermen (2022–present)[18]
Ella Jones, mayor of Ferguson (2020–present)[29] (switched endorsement to Bell)[30]
- Individuals
- Jon Bauman, singer and actor[18]
- Andy Cohen, talk show host[31]
- Harry Dunn, former U.S. Capitol Police officer[32]
- Jon Hamm, actor[31]
- Howie Klein, McGill University professor[33]
- Aaron Parnas, lawyer and TikToker[18]
- Heather Digby Parton, political blogger[33]
- Labor unions
- American Federation of Government Employees[34]
- International Union of Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers Missouri[a][35]
- Kansas City and St. Louis Building and Construction Trades Councils[36]
- IBEW Local 124[37]
- International Association of Fire Fighters Missouri[b][38][39]
- 3 International Association of Heat and Frost Insulators and Allied Workers locals[c][40]
- International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers District 9[41]
- International Brotherhood of Boilermakers Local 83[37]
- International Union of Elevator Constructors Local 12[37]
- International Union of Operating Engineers Local 101[37]
- International Union of Painters and Allied Trades District Council 3[37]
- Iron Workers Local 10[42]
- 4 Laborers' Union locals[d][37]
- Missouri AFL-CIO[43]
- Missouri State Council of Machinists[44]
- Operative Plasterers' and Cement Masons' International Association Local 518[37]
- SEIU Missouri/Kansas State Council[45]
- SMART Local 2[37]
- 5 Sprinkler Fitters locals[e][37]
- Teamsters Locals 41 and 541[37]
- Tile, Marble, and Terrazzo Workers Local 18[35]
- UFCW Local 655[46]
- United Union of Roofers, Waterproofers and Allied Workers Locals 2 and 20[37]
- Organizations
- State representatives
- LaKeySha Frazier-Bosley, 79th district (2019–present)[25]
- Local officials
- Michael Butler, St. Louis Recorder of Deeds (2018–present), former Missouri Democratic Party Chair (2020–2023), and former state representative from the 79th district (2013–2019)[53]
- State officials
- Bob Holden, former governor of Missouri (2001–2005)[54]
- State representatives
- Deb Lavender, 98th district (2015–2021, 2023–present)[55]
- Municipal officials
- Jean Peters Baker, Jackson County Prosecutor (2011–present), former Missouri Democratic Party Chair (2018–2020), and former state representative from the 39th district (2011)[56]
- Local officials
- Ella Jones, mayor of Ferguson (2020–present) (previously endorsed Kunce)[30]
- Sharon Pace, mayor of Northwoods (2021–present) and former state representative from the 74th district (2009–2017)[55]
Fundraising
[edit]Campaign finance reports as of July 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
December Harmon (D) | $16,524[f] | $15,578 | $945 |
Lucas Kunce (D) | $11,193,778 | $6,959,981 | $4,241,078 |
Karla May (D) | $53,962 | $48,314 | $5,647 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[12] |
Polling
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[g] |
Margin of error |
Mita Biswas |
December Harmon |
Lucas Kunce |
Karla May |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Remington Research Group[A] | July 10-11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 1% | 4% | 39% | 10% | 46% |
Results
[edit]![](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4a/2024_United_States_Senate_Democratic_primary_election_in_Missouri_results_map_by_county.svg/220px-2024_United_States_Senate_Democratic_primary_election_in_Missouri_results_map_by_county.svg.png)
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 40–50%
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Lucas Kunce | 255,309 | 67.7% | |
Democratic | Karla May | 87,653 | 23.2% | |
Democratic | December Harmon | 26,732 | 7.1% | |
Democratic | Mita Biswas | 7,627 | 2.0% | |
Total votes | 377,321 | 100.0% |
Third-party and independent candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]Fundraising
[edit]Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Jared Young (I) | $364,377[h] | $253,727 | $110,650 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[12] |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[5] | Solid R | November 9, 2023 |
Inside Elections[6] | Solid R | November 9, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] | Safe R | November 9, 2023 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[60] | Safe R | June 8, 2024 |
Elections Daily[8] | Safe R | May 4, 2023 |
CNalysis[61] | Solid R | November 21, 2023 |
Polling
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[g] |
Margin of error |
Josh Hawley (R) |
Lucas Kunce (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | June 17–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 38% | 5% | 10% |
Remington Research Group[B] | March 6–8, 2024 | 713 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 53% | 39% | – | 8% |
Emerson College | January 23–28, 2024 | 1,830 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 43% | 30% | 7% | 20% |
Show Me Victories (D) | October 26–31, 2023 | 407 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 42% | 4% | 8% |
Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 491 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 32% | 5% | 17% |
GQR Research (D)[C] | August 16–19, 2023 | 863 (LV) | ± 3.34% | 44% | 43% | – | 12% |
- Josh Hawley vs. Wesley Bell
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[g] |
Margin of error |
Josh Hawley (R) |
Wesley Bell (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 491 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 34% | 5% | 17% |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Josh Hawley (incumbent) | ||||
Democratic | Lucas Kunce | ||||
Libertarian | W. C. Young | ||||
Better Party | Jared Young | ||||
Total votes |
Notes
[edit]- ^ Bricklayers Administrative District Council of Missouri and Locals 1 and 15
- ^ Missouri State Council of Fire Fighters and IAFF 2nd district and Local 2665
- ^ Locals 1, 27, and 63
- ^ Locals 264, 663, and 1290
- ^ Locals 8, 268, 314, 533, and 669
- ^ $6,102 of this total was self-funded by Harmon
- ^ a b c Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ $245,000 of this total was self-funded by Young
- Partisan clients
References
[edit]- ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
- ^ a b "Missouri Presidential Election Voting History - 270toWin". 270toWin.com. Retrieved July 1, 2024.
- ^ "Nicole Galloway". Ballotpedia. Retrieved July 1, 2024.
- ^ "Missouri | Full Senate results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved July 1, 2024.
- ^ a b "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
- ^ a b "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
- ^ a b "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
- ^ a b "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
- ^ Jones, Dustin (January 20, 2023). "Hawley on the ballot: The 2024 Senate elections are already getting competitive". KCUR 89.3. NPR. Retrieved May 22, 2023.
- ^ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC. Retrieved March 31, 2023.
- ^ "Senate Conservatives Fund". www.senateconservatives.com. Retrieved September 2, 2023.
- ^ a b c "2024 Election United States Senate - Missouri". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
- ^ Otterbein, Holly (January 6, 2023). "The first Democrat emerges to take on Josh Hawley". POLITICO. Retrieved January 6, 2023.
- ^ "SOS, Missouri - Elections: Offices Filed in Candidate Filing". s1.sos.mo.gov. Retrieved March 27, 2024.
- ^ Southey, Stephanie (January 16, 2023). "Columbia activist announces bid for U.S. Senate". KOMU-TV. Retrieved January 16, 2023.
- ^ Rosenbaum, Jason (July 9, 2023). "Democratic state Sen. Karla May will enter Missouri's U.S. Senate contest". St. Louis Public Radio. Retrieved July 9, 2023.
- ^ "Wesley Bell announces run against Cori Bush for Congress". ksdk.com. October 30, 2023. Retrieved October 30, 2023.
- ^ a b c d e f g h Holleman, Joe (June 13, 2023). "Lucas Kunce boasts endorsements from some prominent St. Louis pols". St. Louis Post Dispatch. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
- ^ Kander, Jason (December 12, 2023). "Josh Hawley is vulnerable in next year's Senate election. Even Donald Trump knows it". Kansas City Star. Retrieved December 12, 2023.
- ^ Holleman, Joe (March 30, 2023). "Former Missouri lieutenant governor endorses Lucas Kunce for US Senate". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved March 30, 2023.
- ^ Drebes, Dave (June 13, 2023). "MOScout Daily Update: Sensible Missouri, Schmitt Speech, AirBnB Lobbyist, Kunce Endorsements, Lovasco Hits SCCRCC and more". MOScout. Retrieved June 29, 2023.
- ^ Rowden, Tim (June 19, 2023). "Missouri AFL-CIO backs Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate". The Labor Tribune. Retrieved June 19, 2023.
- ^ Holleman, Joe (August 29, 2023). "Lucas Kunce fires up St. Louis-area crowd, including local politicians". St. Louis Post Dispatch. Retrieved September 19, 2023.
- ^ Drebes, Dave (June 28, 2023). "MOScout Daily Update: Parson to Swing Budget Axe? Massage Tax IP? Wood Retires (Again), Nixa's Book Challenge Committee, and more". MoScout. Retrieved June 28, 2023.
- ^ a b Rosenbaum, Jason (July 20, 2023). "Missouri Democrats debate whether U.S. Senate primary is a help or hindrance". St. Louis Public Radio. Retrieved July 20, 2023.
- ^ Holleman, Joe (June 15, 2023). "St. Louis County councilwoman backs Lucas Kunce in U.S. Senate race". St. Louis Post Dispatch. Retrieved June 19, 2023.
- ^ Holleman, Joe (October 30, 2023). "Lucas Kunce's US Senate bid gets more St. Louis County Council support". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved November 16, 2023.
- ^ Drebes, Dave (May 12, 2023). "MOScout Daily Update: Final Day of Session, New PAC, White for Kunce, and more". MOScout. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
- ^ Krull, Ryan (June 7, 2023). "MISSOURI NEWS: Missouri Senate Race Could Draw Big Money, National Attention". Riverfront Times. Retrieved June 10, 2023.
- ^ a b Rosenbaum, Jason (June 7, 2023). "St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell announces U.S. Senate run". KWMU St. Louis Public Radio. Retrieved June 10, 2023.
- ^ a b Swift, Jim (March 14, 2023). "Challenger to Hawley: Quit Your 'Fake Populism'". The Bulwark. Retrieved March 30, 2023.
- ^ Kurtz, Josh (July 10, 2024). "Dunn's new PAC backs 10 Democratic Senate candidates, including Alsobrooks". Maryland Matters. Maryland Matters. Retrieved July 11, 2024.
- ^ a b Klein, Howie (January 6, 2023). "January 6— Lucas Kunce Launches His Campaign For Senate. What Better Day To Start The Process Of Removing Insurrectionist Josh Hawley?". Blue America PAC. Retrieved March 30, 2023.
- ^ Drebes, Dave (January 19, 2024). "MOScout Daily Update: Senate Sickness, Trump Contra Roe, Pro-Choice Campaign Raises Over $1M, Burly's $400K, Kunce Chugs Along, and More". MOScout. Retrieved January 21, 2024.
- ^ a b "Three unions endorse 'warrior for working people' Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate". The Labor Tribune. April 10, 2023. Retrieved April 10, 2023.
- ^ Drebes, David (May 5, 2023). "MOScout Daily Update: Gardner Resigns, Brattin Protests, KC Building Trades for Kunce and more". MOScout. Retrieved May 8, 2023.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k "Missouri Fire Fighters endorse Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate". The Labor Tribune. June 5, 2023. Retrieved June 5, 2023.
- ^ Drebes, Dave (May 25, 2023). "MOScout Daily Update: Chrismer in Senate '23, Keller to Lead Pro-Richey PAC, Club For Growth Coming, Kunce Gets Fire Fighters, and More". MOScout. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
- ^ PFEM 2665 (@pfem2665) (August 30, 2023). "On Monday night members of @PFEM2665 continued our strong tradition of political action as we rallied for US Senate candidate @LucasKunceMO alongside @iaffdist2 VP Mark Woolbright. Thanks for leading the charge, brothers and sisters!". Twitter. Retrieved September 19, 2023.
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) - ^ "Insulators Local 1 endorses Lucas Kunce for Senate". Sun Times News Online. March 30, 2023. Retrieved April 11, 2023.
- ^ Rowden, Tim (September 8, 2023). "Labor, local political leaders rally behind Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate". Retrieved June 5, 2024.
- ^ Drebes, David (April 23, 2023). "MOScout Daily Update: Big Bill Pile-up Comind, MATA's GOP Picks?, Kunce's Stride Toward Nomination, and more". MOScout. Retrieved April 23, 2023.
- ^ Hollemann, Joe (June 7, 2023). "Kunce secures major labor endorsement in Missouri race for US Senate". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved June 7, 2023.
- ^ Holleman, Joe (June 26, 2023). "St. Louis County Council chair endorses Lucas Kunce over Wesley Bell". St. Louis Post Dispatch. Retrieved June 26, 2023.
- ^ Youngblood, Kaitlin (October 11, 2023). "SEIU Missouri/Kansas State Council Announces Endorsement of Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate". SEIU Healthcare. Retrieved October 16, 2023.
- ^ "UFCW 655 endorses Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate". The Labor Tribune. May 22, 2023. Retrieved May 22, 2023.
- ^ "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate". End Citizens United | We the People, Not "We the Wealthy". January 10, 2024. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ Drebes, Dave (November 17, 2023). "MOScout Daily Update: Firefighters for Bailey, Imagining the Rowden Campaign, Marijuana Drama, and More - Kunce Nabs Freedom Inc". MOScout. Retrieved November 29, 2023.
- ^ Indivisible St. Louis (April 10, 2023). "We're starting to see some serious MO-mentum, Deborah! [...] Lucas Kunce is ready to stand up and serve Missourians in the U.S. Senate. So, if you're ready to elect a real warrior for working people to Missouri's U.S. Senate seat, will you chip in $10 or ANY amount to our grassroots campaign today?". Facebook. Retrieved April 10, 2023.
- ^ "Lucas Kunce". JStreetPAC. Retrieved August 4, 2023.
- ^ Holleman, Joe (September 22, 2023). "Lucas Kunce gets endorsement from national conservation group". STLtoday.com. Archived from the original on September 22, 2023. Retrieved September 22, 2023.
- ^ "VoteVets endorsing Josh Hawley's challenger Lucas Kunce in Missouri Senate race". June 6, 2024.
- ^ Rosenbaum, Jason (July 9, 2023). "Democratic Sen. Karla May promises to bring fight to Hawley". St. Louis Public Radio. Retrieved October 3, 2023.
- ^ Palermo, Gregg (August 31, 2023). "Notebook: What Illinois voters think of a Pritzker presidential bid; Kunce rallies in St. Louis". Spectrum News Local. Retrieved September 19, 2023.
- ^ a b Maxwell, Mark (June 28, 2023). "North St. Louis County mayors, Kansas City prosecutor back Wesley Bell's bid for U.S. Senate". KSDK 5. Retrieved June 29, 2023.
- ^ Bayless, Kacen (June 28, 2023). "Jean Peters Baker endorses STL County prosecutor Bell's campaign against Josh Hawley". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved June 29, 2023.
- ^ "Missouri U.S. Senate Primary Election Results 2024". The New York Times. August 6, 2024. Retrieved August 7, 2024.
- ^ Holleman, Joe (August 31, 2023). "Joplin businessman running as independent for US Senate in Missouri". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved September 2, 2023.
- ^ "UNOFFICIAL Candidate Filing List". Missouri Secretary of State. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
- ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
External links
[edit]- Official campaign websites