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Wikipedia is a mainstream encyclopedia. As such, we are here to fairly report on cold fusion.

Here is an edit I did to help this article conform to the above doctrine:

[1]

Rationale:

1. "Summary of evidence for cold fusion" is not NPOV. People do not agree that this stuff listed here is actually "evidence" "for" "cold fusion". Everyone can agree that these are the assertions of cold fusion proponents. Let's keep it at that.
2. We need to be clear that the only thing being discussed (right now) in this section are cold fusion devices that were built and reported on by proponents. The previous version did not do that. The current version does.
3. "As of 2008, over 200..." We agreed a long time ago that attaching particular numbers to claims is irresponsible. Since Wikipedia has no way of verifying the number of "proper" claims, or even what makes a "proper" claim, we should not be reporting the number of claims. The source that numbers them is not universally considered reliable and is, in fact, promotional.
4. The Hubler review is cited as evidence for "how much" excess heat. Of course, this is not a reliable source for this claim. The amount of excess heat has varied and reporting solely on positive results is an example of publication bias. We need to avoid this. It is good enough to simply state that cold fusion proponents believe that excess heat has been reported and leave it at that.
5. The statement about nuclear science theory and cold fusion explanations was clarified to let it be known that no "theory" of "cold fusion" has ever been accepted by anyone but cold fusion proponents.
6. The listing of people who believe in excess heat is excessive, promotional, and unnecessary. We can cite the people, but listing them in the article text is Project Steve-esque. Wikipedia is a neutral encyclopedia, not an indiscriminate collection of information. Unless the report of the particular cold fusion researcher can be shown to be prominent, Wikipedia policy says to marginalize it. To show prominence, we need to show that independent sources (that is, sources who are NOT cold fusion proponents) think the claims are notable. That criteria has not been fulfilled.
7. Specific claims of the "order of magnitude" of the nuclear products were removed as being essentially unverfiable. We can state that researchers claim nuclear products. The details of their claims have not been scrutinized independent of cold fusion proponents and therefore cannot be included in Wikipedia.
8. Claims made by pro-cold fusion proponents from the DOE report were not vetted independently. They were, in fact, intended to be partisan. Including them is tantamount to a complete subversion of WP:NPOV. Therefore those specific claims of "independent verification" of nuclear transmutations have been removed.
9. The novel process conjecture is one held solely by cold fusion proponents. Therefore I have rewritten the sentence to conform to this point.
10. Iwamura's specific claims are not independently verified. As such, I have kept in a simpler summary and removed points that are obviously contentious.

I expect that cold fusion proponents will be none to happy with these changes. However, if we are to take it seriously that Wikipedia needs to be WP:MAINSTREAM these edits, or at least edits along these lines will need to be put in place.

If you wish to argue with any point above, please do so below.

People who agree with this edit are encouraged to say so in the interest of proving consensus. If only cold fusion proponents respond, we cannot properly gauge the level of support for this treatment of the subject.

ScienceApologist (talk) 00:09, 24 November 2008 (UTC)[reply]

• Support I first read this article a couple of days ago and was shocked at how bad it is (I'm a physicist). Your edits are a step in the right direction. As noted in WP:MAINSTREAM, Wikipedia should be presenting a highly fringe phenomenon in terms of the language of the maintstream, and the article doesn't do that. There's a lot more to do, I'll be happy to highlight some more problems and do the edits. Phil153 (talk) 00:45, 24 November 2008 (UTC)[reply]

• Support On balance these edits and associated proposals seem reasonable. As a complete outsider to this debate up to now I really would like to see a more neutral tone to the article because I suspect we may have an "in universe" mentality reflected in some sections rather than a mainstream one. If and when any breakthroughs happen supported by WP:RS we can happily add them to the article. That would be a more fitting approach for a serious encyclopedia. To put it in football terms let the cheerleading begin after the touchdown has been achieved but not before that. We don't need a blow by blow account of the state of the art of cold fusion. Just a general overview of the topic. Dr.K. (talk) 05:07, 24 November 2008 (UTC)[reply]
• Support On the whole, I think the article is shaping up. I would like to see more improvements though. In particular:

"In 2004, the DOE organized another panel to take a look at cold fusion developments since 1989 to determine if their policies towards cold fusion should be altered"

is misleading. The DOE did not undertake a review of the field as a whole. Instead, they agreed to consider a new petition from a group seeking DOE funding for cold fusion (referred to as "proposers") in a peer review process. The material considered was only that of the proposers. Instead of:

"Various people who have reported a supposed demonstration of cold fusion have used a variety of devices"

I would prefer something like

"Cold fusion claims have involved a variety of devices"

The statement:

"The cold fusion researchers who presented their review document to the 2004 DOE panel said that "the hypothesis that the excess heat effect arises only as a consequence of errors in calorimetry was considered, studied, tested, and ultimately rejected"

goes too far into the arguments and should be struck. It is much more interpretive than describing the kinds of apparatus cold fusion researchers use and the kinds of observations they claim to have made. You cannot observe "no calorimetry error." Likewise I would strike:

"The cold fusion researchers who presented their review document to the 2004 DOE panel on cold fusion proposed that there were insufficient chemical reaction products to account for the excess heat.[79] However, the amount of helium in the gas stream was about half of what would be expected for a heat source of the type D + D → 4He.

The former sentence is interpretive, the second is misleading and inaccurate. Finally, I would like to see:

" has lead some cold fusion proponents to conjecture that new processes may by converting nuclear energy directly to heat"

replaced with something more specific an accordance with the archived discussion. I think it is worth reporting that the proponents proposed an entirely new way in which high energy particles can interact with macroscopic bodies rather than attach significance to the absence of high energy particles.Paul V. Keller (talk) 16:15, 30 November 2008 (UTC)[reply]

• Support per all above. Verbal chat 16:19, 30 November 2008 (UTC)[reply]

• Oppose, obviously. Wikipedia is not a mainstream encyclopedia, as discussed here. On the contrary, it is a NPOV encyclopedia based on reputable, scholarly sources. The statements under dispute come from reliable sources, and we should not evaluate them further. Hopefully, this will be resolved by the ArbComm case. Pcarbonn (talk) 16:41, 30 November 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Verifiability to reliable sources is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for including something. Wikipedia articles are not collections of all verifiable information on a specific subject. Hut 8.5 18:25, 1 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

• Comment and follow-up I support Dr. Keller's proposals. They are reasonable and they address my concerns as expressed in my comments above. I don't think that the article will benefit by presenting in minute detail arguments and technical information contained in the sources or by micro-analysing and then trying to interpret technical details presented in reports or technical papers, especially if we still pretend that our readers need not be nuclear physicists in order to comprehend the article. Even if they were nuclear physicists there is still no agreement between them as to the exact processes involved so it is even more useless to include these highly detailed claims here. It is clear that this article does not have to be the battlefield of the micro-details as they continually unfold in the field. The analysis ethic in this article clearly needs to be more macroscopic. Dr.K. (talk) 19:54, 30 November 2008 (UTC)[reply]

IMPORTANT: This is not the place to discuss or debate the validity of cold fusion. The following conversation, which was all this was, has been archived.
The following discussion has been closed. Please do not modify it.
You wrote: "As of 2008, over 200..." We agreed a long time ago that attaching particular numbers to claims is irresponsible. Since Wikipedia has no way of verifying the number of "proper" claims, or even what makes a "proper" claim, we should not be reporting the number of claims. You "skeptics" are astounding. You live in your own cloud-cuckoo land, where academic standards do not apply and conventional scientific evidence is not admitted. You say "Wikipedia" has "no way of verifying" the claims. What methods have you tried? Have you been to a library? Have you tried reading the mainstream, peer-reviewed journal papers listed at LENR-CANR.org? Our copies of these papers came from the libraries at Georgia Tech and Los Alamos National Laboratory. That's the kind of place people usually go to verify a claim. Your "information," on the other hand, appears to come out of a sewer, or you just make it up. In normal, accepted science (something you apparently know nothing about) replicated, high sigma peer-reviewed results from over 200 mainstream laboratories would be considered irrefutable proof that a claim is confirmed. You "refute" this proof by pretending it does not exist, or putting quote signs around the word 'proper.' In the words of the Bush administration, you are not members of the reality-based community, and consequently you have filled this article and this discussion area with absurd speculation and nonsense. - Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org The core of science, and of accepting scientific work, is replication of results. There isn't a single experiment described that can reliably replicate any of the results attributed to cold fusion proponents (such as detection of heat, or fusion products such as neutrons). In this sense, has very strong similarities to Polywater. The trouble with claims such as replicated, high sigma peer-reviewed results from over 200 mainstream laboratories is that they are original research. Who decides what is a "mainstream" laboratory, a replicated result, or a high sigma peer reviewed publication? Does Fusion Technology count as a reliable publication, even if peer reviewed and highly cited in Journal of Infinite Energy or Third International Conference on Cold Fusion? That's what we must rely on reliable secondary and tertiary sources to make these kind of claims. If you find something backing up these claims in a reliable, NPOV publication, then source it, and the skeptics will have a much harder time removing such statements. I don't think that's unreasonable. Unless there's a massive conspiracy to keep cold fusion down, the main strike against it is that there isn't a working model that can reliably generate anomalous anything after decades and tens of millions of dollars spent in research. Thanks for being up front about your background, BTW. Phil153 (talk) 03:05, 25 November 2008 (UTC)[reply] You wrote: Who decides what is a "mainstream" laboratory? Okay, how would you describe Los Alamos, China Lake, BARC, Mitsubishi Heavy Industry, AMOCO, SRI, TAMU or the ENEA labs? Are these not mainstream? . . . a replicated result If you do not know what replications means you are helpless. . . . or a high sigma peer reviewed publication? High sigma refers to data, not publications. Does Fusion Technology count as a reliable publication? Yes, and so does the the Japanese Journal of Applied Physics, Journal of Electroanalytical Chemistry, the Journal of Fusion Energy and Physics Letters A. And unless you have been to a library you have not read the papers in these journals because they are not available on line (due to copyright restrictions). That's what we must rely on reliable secondary and tertiary sources to make these kind of claims. Who is relying on secondary sources?!? I have uploaded 500 original source papers, and made available a list of 3,000 others! How many have you read? You are the one relying on tertiary sources and rumors. Furthermore, unless you think the laws of thermodynamics have been repealed and x-ray film has magically ceased to work, you have no reason to doubt the existence of cold fusion. In 20 years, no skeptic has published a credible, peer-reviewed critique of cold fusion. Skeptics have published only a dozen or so peer-reviewed papers. You can read most of them at LENR-CANR.org. Look up Morrison or Jones. You will find that they have no merit. When massive, positive, high sigma data has been collected and confirmed in hundreds of labs, using many different instrument types, a scientific debate must end. Peer-reviewed replicated evidence is the gold standard of proof in science. In fact, it is the only standard. You would substitute for it your own opinion, or handwaving, or facts that you just invented. You refuse to read the papers, and you ignore the judgment of thousands of leading experts in electrochemistry, calorimetry, tritium detection and other relevant fields. That puts you on the outside. Cold fusion researchers are distinguished, mainstream experts, and people like you are no better than Creationists! - Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org Phil153, I'd suggest that you read our article. You'll find the evidence that you are looking for, including neutron detection, published in reputable peer reviewed journals. Don't be blind. Look at the sources. Pcarbonn (talk) 07:55, 25 November 2008 (UTC)[reply] I have looked at the many of the sources, and I'm not impressed. I see the purpose of this sub disucssion as coming to consensus on whether or not the use of "over 200 experiments have produced results" is reasonable. I don't believe it is, for the following reasons: It lacks a reliable source for the count. Can you help out with one? There is no indications how many are reliable, how many debunked, etc. To see why this is a problem, consider that I could easily find > 200 favorable case studies for homeopathy for example, or remote viewing, fields that are thoroughly debunked. It only presents one side, giving undue weight. For example, typical comments seems to suggest about 1/3 of experiments produce some kind of anomalous result; should we be stating that "over 400 studies have shown that cold fusion produces nothing"? There is a publishing bias. Those producing results will generally try to get it published through favorable (and sometimes mainstream) journals, while those that don't tend not to publish. Strong believers will also do an experiment multiple times until a result is obtained, and use ad hoc explanations for why it didn't work before. This is classic pathological science that increases the prevalence of error, instead of decreasing it (which is the role of the scientific method). For all these reasons I think the mention of the number of favorable experiments is inappropriate in an article on a largely discredited field. Can you tell me which parts you disagree with? Phil153 (talk) 09:46, 25 November 2008 (UTC)[reply] One of the best source is Storms 2007, published by World Scientific Publishing. I would propose that we say : "Storms published a list of 200 reports of excess heat experiments and 60 reports of anomalous tritium production", so that it is properly attributed and factual information from a secondary, reputable source. (I could not find a book on homeopathy nor on remote viewing from that publisher, in their bookshop). I disagree with your analysis of negative results. See what 1989 DOE said : "Even a single short but valid cold fusion period would be revolutionary. As a result, it is difficult convincingly to resolve all cold fusion claims since, for example, any good experiment that fails to find cold fusion can be discounted as merely not working for unknown reasons." This is perfectly in line with the scientific method. Many people have tried, and failed, to clone animal, and they did not publish about it : do you conclude that successful ones are in errors ? This proves that such a line of reasoning is not correct. Pcarbonn (talk) 11:03, 25 November 2008 (UTC)[reply] Good work on the source. BTW, I don't conclude that the successful ones are in error (that would be silly), but merely that there is a strong bias toward publishing successful results in a field with a KNOWN history of poorly conducted experiments and strong proven likelihood of false positives. It's the combination (good likelihood of false positives in any given experiment + selection bias) that leads to the accumulation of error and a lopsided positive count. It would occur even if cold fusion was total bunk. Therefore, publishing the count of successful experiments gives a very misleading and biased analysis of the field. Your comparison with cloning is inappropriate, since cloning can be independently and conclusively verified after the fact by a DNA experiment. No such independent verification is available for cold fusion; we rely on the reporting of the scientists involved, who are reporting small margins not very far out of the realm of calibration and measurement errors (it's not like you can run a light bulb off a cold fusion device, or have it self power after a jump start, or cook you breakfast). Phil153 (talk) 11:34, 25 November 2008 (UTC)[reply] So, we seem to agree : the publishing bias is not relevant. The issue is how convincing are the published favorable results, irrespective of the negative ones. The CR-39 provide clear evidence of nuclear activity, and can be "independently and conclusively verified after the fact by a [nuclear expert]", as far as I'm concerned. Pcarbonn (talk) 11:44, 25 November 2008 (UTC)[reply] Just to follow up a bit further, I'd be happy if the quote you proposed above went into Summary_of_assertions_of_current_proponents. I think it's appropriate to present their claims (as a subsection of a cold fusion article), although WP:Fringe suggests that it must be written from a mainstream perspective (i.e. critically and with disclaimers on the more unsupported claims). I'm not sure if SA and others would agree though. Phil153 (talk) 11:49, 25 November 2008 (UTC)[reply] To be honest, I'm very wary of WP:Fringe. I prefer to stick to WP:NPOV, which says that "The principles upon which these policies are based cannot be superseded by other policies or guidelines, or by editors' consensus." Here is what I think of WP:MAINSTREAM. Pcarbonn (talk) 12:15, 25 November 2008 (UTC)[reply] Let me explain something to this audience that you may not realize about the perspective of the cold fusion researchers regarding this debate. You are probably as ignorant of the field as the editors of the Scientific American are. They told me they have not read a single paper on the subject because it is “not their job.” They are certain that the effect was never replicated. Such people of course can have no notion who published these papers, where the papers were published, what the claims are, what experiments have been done, what instruments were used, or anything else. It is clear from the comments published by the Scientific American editors that they know none of these details, and they have in fact made up absurd nonsense about cold fusion, or dredged up it from the Internet. You can compare their statements to the experimentally proven facts to confirm this. As you probably know, in academic science it is customary to first read experimental papers before discussing them or criticizing them. People who do not do this are generally considered crackpots. Many distinguished experimentalists and theorists have contributed to cold fusion, including Nobel laureates, the Director of the Max Planck Institute for Physical Chemistry in Berlin; Iyengar, the Director of BARC and later chairman of the Indian Atomic Energy Commission; Prof. Melvin Miles, Fellow of China Lake; three editors of major plasma fusion and physics journals; a retired member of the French Atomic Energy Commission, and so on, an so forth, not to mention Martin Fleischmann, FRS. (You will find papers from all of these authors in the LENR-CANR.org library, and of course at the Georgia Tech and Los Alamos libraries.) Most researchers are distinguished senior professors because younger professors cannot get funding, because the research is controversial. These people are highly capable and certain of themselves. Many of them literally wrote the book on modern electrochemistry, calorimetry and other relevant fields. They do not make stupid mistakes. They have repeated the experiment thousands of times. They seldom read the kind of comments you skeptics make here, but when they do they instantly dismiss you people as a bunch of ignorant crackpots who do not understand the laws of thermodynamics, who have no clue how a calorimeter works, and who criticize papers they have never read. Naturally, I agree with them. You people imagine you are qualified to write an article about cold fusion. I doubt that you would casually edit some similar article about some other scientific research that you know nothing about, but for some inexplicable reason you imagine that you are experts on this subject, and that you can casually contradict the likes of Iyengar, Miles or Fleischmann. You imagine that their work is "discredited." This is unbelievable chutzpah. It is egomania. This is why Wikipedia will never become a viable source of information about this research. - Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org —Preceding unsigned comment added by 68.217.42.138 (talk) 23:14, 25 November 2008 (UTC)[reply] Maybe you should submit to a proper academic journal rather than Scientific American, then? The peer review comments should be helpful. Verbal chat 23:21, 25 November 2008 (UTC)[reply] Jed Rothwell emphasizes that cold fusion researchers are experts in "electrochemistry, calorimetry, and other relevant fields" and that they have published articles in many journals. However, it is important to remember that cold fusion is a nuclear reaction topic, not simply a chemistry topic, and that experts in nuclear reactions would need to be convinced of its existence before the rest of the world takes notice. If cold fusion researchers are ethical and serious about sharing cold fusion with the world, it is their obligation to submit papers to journals that report on nuclear reactions such as Physical Review C. The fact that they either do not, or do not get their articles accepted for publication, is very significant. Olorinish (talk) 00:05, 26 November 2008 (UTC)[reply] Olorinish wrote: ". . . experts in nuclear reactions would need to be convinced of its existence. . . " Many of them are. I listed some above, especially the people at BARC and Los Alamos. All serious cold fusion experiments are collaborations with nuclear experts, and the nuclear experts I know who have participated in successful experiments are convinced, except for the late Dr. Clarke, mentioned in the article, and of course Prof. Steve Jones. The nuclear experts I have spoken with who are not convinced have not read the literature and have no idea what has been discovered, or claimed. - Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org Jed Rothwell, as far as I understand it, Wikipedia's purpose is to present an encyclopedia that contains accepted knowledge. It doesn't seek be an arbitrer of the truth of any claim, or do its own research, but merely to present the mainstream via secondary and tertiary sources, and some of the controversy. This has been discussed ad naseum here and in other fringe science articles. In any case, the purpose of the talk page is to improve the article - so I'm curious what specific statements in the main article you disagree with and how you think they should be changed. Phil153 (talk) 02:52, 26 November 2008 (UTC)[reply] Phil153 asked: "I'm curious what specific statements in the main article you disagree with and how you think they should be changed." This reminds of the joke: 'How do you make a sculpture of an elephant?' 'Answer: get a large rock and cut away everything that does not look like an elephant.' I would take this article and cut away everything that does not look like conventional, peer-reviewed, rock-solid science from mainstream journals. Cut away opinions, unfounded rumors, crackpot theories from people who don't believe that calorimetry works, and assertions that the research has been "discredited" by unnamed "experts" who have never published a paper. Unless these experts have names, credible professional affiliations, and they have published peer-reviewed papers listing technical errors in actual cold fusion papers, they do not belong here. Eliminate the politics, the fake history, and unimportant gossip. In short, I would make this article look like any article about any scientific topic! If you want an article about the academic politics surrounding cold fusion, by all means make one. Put the crackpot theories elsewhere too. Wikipedia articles about biology are not overrun by Creationist crackpots, so why are the 'skeptics' who know nothing about cold fusion allowed to overwrite this one? There are, in fact, six actual, professional scientists who have published papers and books that purport to find errors in cold fusion experiments. I have uploaded as much of their work as they have given me permission to upload. I encourage everyone to read them, especially Huizenga, Hoffman and Morrison, because I think their work has no merit. It will convince readers that there are no valid arguments against cold fusion, which is correct. If you want to add their arguments to this article, I encourage you to do so. They are first-class crackpots, but unlike the anonymous crackpot opinions now littering the article these are from real professors with names from legitimate institutions who have actually published papers with falsifiable technical claims -- papers you can read at a library, or at LENR-CANR.org. (A few others have written books attacking cold fusion that have no technical content; that is, no falsifiable technical arguments that can be resolved with reference to data. For example, Park claims that all cold fusion scientists are liars, lunatics or criminals. Such claims cannot be put to the test by examining colorimetric data, whereas anyone who knows a little chemistry will find glaring errors in papers by Morrison or Hoffman.) Note that there are ~2,500 authors at LENR-CANR and as far as I know every one of them is a professional scientist. I would not list their papers otherwise. The other thing you need to do is to organize the topical logically, according to what has been discovered and what types of experiments are done, instead of wandering around the topic. This article has very little useful information, and what little there is is out of date and buried under mounds of empty speculation. - Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org So, you assert that all who criticize cold fusion are crackpots or skeptics and have never published any paper... except for the ones that actually did, but those don't count because you looked yourself at the papers and you determined that they are all wrong. Sorry, but that's all WP:OR original research and it just won't cut it here. You have to follow the WP:RS reliable sources guideline and find proper sources for all those claims you make. --Enric Naval (talk) 16:33, 27 November 2008 (UTC)[reply] Enric Naval wrote: . . . skeptics and have never published any paper... except for the ones that actually did, but those don't count because you looked yourself at the papers and you determined that they are all wrong. On the contrary! The ones who actually did publish should count. They should be part of this article. I tried to add the main points from their papers years ago, but the 'skeptics' deleted them. The 'skeptics' do not want any actual anti-cold fusion papers mentioned here because these papers are full of astounding mistakes. They are an embarrassment. You can look at their papers and see that for yourself, and I encourage you to do so. See, for example: http://www.lenr-canr.org/acrobat/Fleischmanreplytothe.pdf See also the book by Hoffman, which was mainly devoted to the hypothesis that Ontario Hydro (now Hydro One) sells used moderator heavy water from CANDU reactors for use in laboratories. This kind of grotesque nonsense is the best argument the anti-cold fusion authors can come up with. You can scour the literature all you like: I guarantee you will not find anything sounder than this. Look at books by non-scientists such as Taubes and you find even more mind boggling stuff, such as the claim that electrochemists measure voltage only and not amps, and the claim that laboratory power supplies deliver "more electricity" on weekends because factories use less. It would not be fair to list mistakes by Taubes here (for one thing, there are hundreds like that in his book -- you wouldn't know where to start), but Hoffman is a professional and I think this article would benefit from a section mentioning some of his mistakes. What I object to are non-technical critiques and assertions that cannot be verified or falsified. Also, baseless and imaginary assertions, such as the ones in Scientific American, should only be mentioned in the article to point out that they wrong. An article about science should be based on experimentally proven facts, not whatever random notion pops into John Horgan's head. See: http://www.lenr-canr.org/News.htm#SciAmSlam - Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org I'm not taking a position on the article, but I do not think you can make a credibility judgment in a vacuum. There has to be a distinction between good science and huckster science because there are more hucksters out there than you can shake a stick at. If we cannot filter good information from bad, then good information is hopelessly diluted and eveything reduces to a matter of undifferentiated opinion. Read everything, fund everything, what's the difference? Peer review publication is one way of screening, even if it is not an acid test. No one can look over every article or analyze every experiment that has been done, but it would help to know that lots of qualified people have made the effort and been convinced, or not. Other credibility factors cannot and should not be ignored. A lack of a theoretical basis convincing to physicists figures large. If an experiment is contrary to a previously tested and broadly functioning theory, that is a good reason to hypothesize an experimatal mistake. Many experiments showing more energy out than in have been found flawed, revindicating conservation of energy. Foundaton in mistake does not bode well - I do not think the Manhatten project would have gotten far if they were just stumbling about in the lab. Talking to the press before convincing peers looks bad to me. And the desire for cheap clean energy without all the hassle of sustaining 10 million degrees makes this field ripe for pseudoscience. Which nobel laureates did you say are convinced cold fusion is real?Paul V. Keller (talk) 20:02, 28 November 2008 (UTC)[reply] Paul V. Keller wrote: No one can look over every article or analyze every experiment that has been done, but it would help to know that lots of qualified people have made the effort and been convinced, or not. Lots of qualified people have made the effort, and are convinced. Roughly 2,500 of them are. You will find papers written by them at LENR-CANR.org. Please read them and see why they are convinced. If an experiment is contrary to a previously tested and broadly functioning theory . . . I am no expert in theory, but people who are say that cold fusion does not contradict or violate theory. . . . that is a good reason to hypothesize an experimatal mistake. Many experiments showing more energy out than in have been found flawed, revindicating conservation of energy. Cold fusion is based upon calorimetry, which is based upon the conservation of energy. If energy is not conserved, cold fusion experiments are wrong, and meaningless. (It is more the other way around; thermodynamics was derived from calorimetry.) Which Nobel laureates did you say are convinced cold fusion is real? In physics, Schwinger, Rubbia and Josephson. I do not know about ones in chemistry or other fields. - Jed Rothwell I should add that Schwinger, Rubbia and Josephson gave reasons why they believe cold fusion is true, and wrote technical papers. I have read brief statements by other Nobel laureates who do not believe cold fusion is real, but these statements did not include any technical details. So I do not know what basis they have for their beliefs -- if any. Of course many other scientists have published various letters and statements expressing doubt about cold fusion but again, the statements have no technical content so they cannot be verified or falsified. Roughly half of the 2004 DoE reviewers do not believe cold fusion is real, and most of them gave reasons for their views. You can read their statements at LENR-CANR.org. You will find that the ones who do not believe in cold fusion gave invalid reasons. That is to say, they made assertions that are not in evidence (such as the notion that cold fusion heat might be caused by a chemical reaction) or assertions that violate the scientific method (such as the notion that theory can overrule replicated, high sigma experimental results). - Jed Rothwell —Preceding unsigned comment added by 208.65.88.243 (talk) 22:10, 28 November 2008 (UTC)[reply] You exaggerate. A lot. Julian Schwinger did not "believe" in cold fusion. Schwinger believed in being open minded about cold fusion. What his writings offer is a hypothesis that could reconcile theory with experiment. These hypothesis were based on what would be required to explain the data, assuming the data was valid. I see nothing in what he wrote that showed "belief". I'll grant you Schwinger clearly felt cold fusion warranted further consideration and that scientists should not prejudge cold fusion. But I also note that in related work Schwinger prepared a vacuum energy theory to explain sonoluminescence, a theory that has not gained traction or been supported by experimental data. To the contrary, it seems a very hard fit to the phenomena and the phenomena has been more convincingly explained by other theories. Also, the sonoluminescence was just sketched out by Schwinger: he left someone else to puts some flesh on the bones of his theory. http://www.infinite-energy.com/iemagazine/issue1/colfusthe.html I do not think Rubbia has any place on your list. As far as I can tell, he said something that got quoted in an Italian paper and propogated by cold fusion enthusists. I could not find any original material, but it seems most likely he was referring to his idea for a particle accelerator-based power source, which is a far cry from "believing" and "publishing papers" claiming you can get nuclear reactions by chemical means. Josephson, like Schwinger, seems credulous when it comes to data and seems able to come up with a theory for any observation. Josephson also believes in telepathy. He has a theory to explain it. http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2001/sep/30/robinmckie.theobserver Reason number 47 for being incredulous, proponents feel the need to exaggerate the stregth of their position: Reason number 48 for being incredulous: proponents grasp at straws. Reason number 49 for being incredulous, leading proponent also believe in telepathy.Paul V. Keller (talk) 23:48, 28 November 2008 (UTC)[reply] Rubbia has worked with cold fusion researchers in Italy with whom I am in frequent contact. He gave lectures indicating that he is convinced. I have not read any newspaper accounts and I do not know Italian, so I do not know exactly what he said, but the researchers told me that's what he said. Schwinger told me he was quite convinced, shortly before he died. No one is grasping at straws; the results speak for themselves. Cells have produced over 100 W for hours, with no input. In some cases they have produced 10,000 times more than an equivalent mass of chemical fuel could, and not one milligram of chemical ash has been found. Tritium has been measured at levels millions of times background. Hundreds of fogged x-ray films and other x-ray detectors prove there are x-rays. There are some marginal results but other results are beyond doubt. People who do not believe such clear-cut results have turned their backs on the experimental method. They have abandoned objective standards in favor of faith-based, opinion-based, anything-goes pseudo religion. If you are a scientist you must believe what the instruments prove. That is the bedrock basis of the scientific method. - Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org —Preceding unsigned comment added by 208.65.88.243 (talk) 01:15, 29 November 2008 (UTC)[reply] I strongly disagree with the statement that non-believers have "turned their backs on the scientific method." I, for one, have not. When someone publishes solid nuclear reaction evidence in a major journal, or demonstrates a device which provides useful heat, people like me will change our minds about cold fusion. Olorinish (talk) 01:48, 29 November 2008 (UTC)[reply] Jed, I do not believe your comments are contributing in any logical way to a discussion of the article content. You assert "cells have produced over 100 W for hours, with no input" with no context or citation. Who would know whether that is a credible claim, or what you mean by "no input"? You assert that in some cases they have produced 10,000 times more than an equivalent mass of chemical fuel could, and not one milligram of chemical ash has been found. What "chemical ash" are you talking about and why should I attach significance to the failure to find "one milligram"? How was this "equivalent mass of chemical fuel" and its chemical potential energy determined? What would lead me to conclude that your "hundreds of fogged x-ray films" are best explained by cold fusion? Frankly, there in no possible justification for your assertion that what "the instruments prove" is beyond dispute. If yesterday's "proof" could not be disputed, "cold fusion" would never have seen the light of day. By making so many undocumented, controversial, and half stated assertons of experimental results you foreclose a logical discussion by sheer volume. What's left is just inuendo and insult. I disagree with your claim that cold fusion proponents are objective, whereas those that are unpersuaded are "opinion-based" and engaging in "pseudo-religion".Paul V. Keller (talk) 18:59, 29 November 2008 (UTC)[reply] Olorinish wrote: When someone publishes solid nuclear reaction evidence in a major journal . . . There are hundreds of papers in major journals describing rock-solid, irrefutable proof of solid-state nuclear reactions. These papers are written by thousands of professional scientists. If you have read these papers and you do not think they prove there is a nuclear reaction, I suggest you write a paper describing the technical reasons for your conclusion. Contact me at LENR-CANR.org when you finish, and I will upload it. (By "technical reasons," I mean you must cite errors in the experimental technique. I do not mean an assertion that a result is theoretically impossible and therefore the experiment must be wrong, or an assertion that calorimeters, mass spectrometers and x-ray film do not work. Those are violations of the scientific method.) . . . or demonstrates a device which provides useful heat, people like me will change our minds about cold fusion. It is probably impossible to develop or demonstrate such a device without proper funding. The reaction cannot be controlled enough to scale up safely. Cold fusion research is orders of magnitude cheaper than tokamak plasma fusion research, but it still costs millions. Results have improved considerably in the last 10 years. SRI used to input 1 W and get out at most 3 W excess, with only ~10% success rate (as I recall). Now they input less than 1 W and get out 20 to 30 W, and it works nearly every time. So there has been progress, but it is unreasonable to expect a practical device. In any case, no one demands practical tokamak, HTSC or cloning before believing these results, so it is unreasonable to demand this of cold fusion. This standard has never been applied to other experimental breakthroughs. - Jed Rothwell —Preceding unsigned comment added by 208.65.88.243 (talk) 15:59, 29 November 2008 (UTC)[reply] Please list the three articles that you think are most persuasive of nuclear reactions. Regarding the higher standard for cold fusion confirmation compared to other topics, people should be more skeptical: (A) The compatibility of cold fusion with existing scientific knowledge is far, far lower than with the other topics you mention. (B) The incentives for success are higher than in other fields, so people might "want" to believe more in positive results. (C) Cold fusion had advocates (P and F) who acted very strangely during their time in the spotlight. (D) Cold fusion has had "confirmations" that turned out to be erroneous. In fact, considering these factors it would be irresponsible for scientists, or wikipedia editors, to have the same standards for confirmation of cold fusion as other topics. Olorinish (talk) 17:08, 29 November 2008 (UTC)[reply] Olorinish wrote: Please list the three articles that you think are most persuasive of nuclear reactions. I do not think anyone should read three article and try to form an opinion on cold fusion. It is a complicated and poorly-understood subject. I think ~30 papers and books would be better. Here are some that I often recommend: Introductory articles and books: Storms, Beaudette, Mallove. Introduction for non-scientists: Rothwell, chapter 2 (FAQ): http://lenr-canr.org/acrobat/RothwellJcoldfusiona.pdf An early but important review paper: Gerischer Excess heat: McKubre, Mengoli, Storms, Pons, many others Tritium: Will, Bockris Packham Chien et al., Storms, Radhakrishnan et al. at BARC, Claytor Heat and tritium: Lautzenhiser Helium: Miles, B. Bush X-ray detection: Rout et al. at BARC X-ray, heat excess and 4He in the D:Pd system, D. Gozzi et al. Particle beam (lukewarm) cold fusion: Kasagi, Takahashi (C) Cold fusion had advocates (P and F) who acted very strangely during their time in the spotlight. I disagree. I know Pons and Fleischmann personally, and I know a lot about what they said and did in the spotlight. I cannot imagine anyone could have handled the pressure better than they did, except perhaps Obama. (D) Cold fusion has had "confirmations" that turned out to be erroneous. I am not aware of any. Which experiments do you have in mind? I know of three famous negative experiments that are actually positive (false negatives), and I know of about 100 early replications that failed for reasons that are now well understood, but I do not know of any erroneous confirmations (false positives). The only one in this category might be Georgia Tech, but it was never published so it does not count. (I only count experiments that I have on paper, either from journals or proceedings. I have 3,600 papers in English, and several hundred in Japanese.) - Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org Wikipedia is not a WP:Mainstream encyclopedia: on the contrary, it is a WP:NPOV encyclopedia. This is not the same. Also, how do you explain that the 2004 DOE panel was evenly split on the evidence of excess heat, if there was a mundane explanation for the heat observed ? How do you explain that 1/3 was somewhat convinced by the evidence of nuclear reactions, and that one was entirely convinced ? Obviously, they do not consider the argument that it would contradict known thery. We should not either, and follow the experts who have reviewed the evidence, if we want to give a service to our readers. Pcarbonn (talk) 00:38, 29 November 2008 (UTC)[reply] As a scientist, the first thing I am looking for is reproducible experiments. Next, I am looking for reproducibility with progressively increasing precision to the point where the data shows what some of the important variables are and some rough functional relationships. Then I am looking for the all important steps of forming a theory and making predictions from that theory, followed by testing of the predictions, and thus the theory, by experiments. Cold fusion is way behind the curve on this flow. Cold fusion is still stumbling on the reproducibility part. The review cited in the main article describes 50-200% excess heat in 1/3 of the experiments, which is pretty sorry in terms of reproducibility. The 2004 DOE report, which is based on a report prepared by cold fusion research proponents, left 50% of the reviewers concluding excess heat itself had not been convincingly shown, to say nothing of quantified. Figure out what the variables are and start controlling them to get near 100% reproducibility followed by decreasing experimental error (measurement uncertainty) and you'll be doing science and you will have little trouble convincing people you are doing science. If you think the Pd electrode is the wild card, build a system with eight Pd electrodes to statistically average the effect, etc. Various reports of X-rays, gamma rays, neutrons, protons, helium-4, helium-3, and/or "anomalous" isotopic distributions do not make cold fusion science or advance the theory. A report of one of these products that is reproducibly quantified would be more convincing than the collective report of all of them. Cold fusion has made poor progress from the point of view of theory and experiment. Schwinger tried to help make cold fusion a science by giving it a theoretical framework. Given the absence of helium-4 (D+D), he postulated p+D -> helium-3 and a gamma ray. Given that no gamma ray was observed, he went out on a limb and postulated comparatively macroscopic well-ordered portions of the Pd array could take up the gamma rays before they are emitted. I would expect this to lead to experimentally testable predictions, such as a prediction that a Pd array will adsorb gamma rays of a certain frequency, or that gamma ray will be emitted if you alter the Pd lattice structure. I see no such predictions and experiments. Instead, the main proponents are now claiming helium-4. Every science has to start somewhere, but "cold fusion" has already had a good helping of time, effort and funding. The hypothesis is that electrochemically-induced nuclear reactions explain an experimental result. It was a far-fetched hypothesis to begin with, because the working theories of nuclear physics lead to the conclusion that a very high energy is required to bring the nuclei together and all past observations show nothing in the electrochemical system that could impart the required energy. Prediction based on that far-fetched hypothesis, such as gamma rays, did not bear out. Instead or rejecting the hypothesis, enthusiasts added another far-fetched theory: macroscopic lattices take up all the gamma ray energy before it can be detected. What prediction will be made on that theory? Could any experimental result cause proponents to reject the nuclear reaction theory, or is cold fusion now a religion? Cold fusion proponents, who decry for their lack of objectivity those physicists who assert cold fusion is impossible, brazenly assert that a chemical source is impossible, that all other energy sources are impossible, and that various types of experimental error are impossible. Ahem. Meanwhile, even the demonstrations of unaccounted for heat prove hard to reproduce. I see a very unconvincing case for cold fusion. I see a very convincing case for pathological science.Paul V. Keller (talk) 16:47, 29 November 2008 (UTC)[reply] Paul V. Keller wrote: As a scientist, the first thing I am looking for is reproducible experiments. Where have you looked? Which authors and papers have you read? Many papers describe reproducible experiments. I cited my source above. The 2004 DOE report (which only looked at material gather by cold fusion proponents) and the review article cited in the main article. I also explained that good reproducibility would include quantitative results, not just qualitative result. The articles I cite are only talking about qualitative results.Paul V. Keller (talk) 23:55, 29 November 2008 (UTC)[reply] Cold fusion proponents . . . brazenly assert that a chemical source is impossible . . . If you disagree, then please list a chemical source of energy that produces 50 to 150 MJ of heat from ~20 ml of water and a few grams of palladium, with no chemical ash or detectable chemical changes. Now tell us what chemical reaction can produce tritium, x-rays, and helium in the same ratio to the heat as plasma fusion does. Its not a question of whether I disageee. The point is that you and other cold fusion advocates are applying a double standard, one to when considering evidence contrary to cold fusion theory and one when considering evidence contrary to other theories that would explain the same data. Just look at what's written above. As far as speculating on a previously unidentified energy source or storage mechanism, that seems a little premature when more than half the DOE reviewers were not convinced there was even an effect to explain.Paul V. Keller (talk) 23:55, 29 November 2008 (UTC)[reply] . . . and that various types of experimental error are impossible. Not impossible. I know of many errors in cold fusion experiments, especially the false-negative ones. However no significant errors have been found in quality experiments, after 20 years of searching for errors and thousands of replications, using conventional off-the-shelf instruments in mainstream institutions. Again, if you are aware of any errors in the peer-reviewed literature please list them. Claiming that there "might be" errors doesn't count. You have to actually show them. A skeptical point of view does not get a free pass. You need to make a prima facie case before you can shift the burden of persuasion.Paul V. Keller (talk) 23:55, 29 November 2008 (UTC)[reply] Meanwhile, even the demonstrations of unaccounted for heat prove hard to reproduce. Experts now reproduce heat 80 to 90% of the time. Many experiments are far more difficult to reproduce than cold fusion, such as the plasma fusion tokamaks and the top quark experiment, or in biology, cloning of mammals. The failure rate in the latter is about 100 times greater than cold fusion. No one claims that plasma fusion does not exist because it is difficult or expensive to replicate. In the history of science, this has never been given as a reason to disbelieve a result. - Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org —Preceding unsigned comment added by 208.65.88.243 (talk) 20:42, 29 November 2008 (UTC)[reply] Paul V. Keller wrote: I see a very convincing case for pathological science. This is a good example of an unfounded assertion. You linked the term "pathological science" to the article with Langmuir's definition. This definition includes 6 characteristics: * The maximum effect that is observed is produced by a causative agent of barely detectable intensity, and the magnitude of the effect is substantially independent of the intensity of the cause. * The effect is of a magnitude that remains close to the limit of detectability, or many measurements are necessary because of the very low statistical significance of the results. * There are claims of great accuracy. * Fantastic theories contrary to experience are suggested. * Criticisms are met by ad hoc excuses. * The ratio of supporters to critics rises and then falls gradually to oblivion. Cold fusion does not have a single one of these characteristics. People often claim it does, but a cursory review of the literature proves that it does not. It produces heat, tritium and other effects at levels hundreds to millions of times above "barely detectable intensity"; the magnitude of the effect is correlated with loading, flux and other well defined parameters (which has been known since 1992). It is far above the limits of detection. And you can go through the rest of the list yourself. Please refrain from making statements which are totally at odds with the facts. Waving your hand and declaring that cold fusion is "pathological science" does not make it pathological science, unless you redefine that term to mean something other than what Langmuir had in mind. The late editor of the Scientific American once did this, in a letter to me. He redefined "pathological science" to mean any effect for which the "precise physical mechanism is not fully understood." That sure covers a lot of ground! See: http://www.lenr-canr.org/AppealandSciAm.pdf - Jed Rothwell I gave the foundation for my statement, and I was careful to qualify it as a matter of opinion. What I meant was that I find much more support for the hypothesis "cold fusion is pathological science" than for the hypothesis "cold fusion has been found experimentally". By pathological science I mean a theory that will not go away no matter how much evidence accumulates that it is not a good theory. In this case, I pointed out that the theory would have predicted gamma rays. Gamma rays were not found. Instead of rejecting the cold fusion theory and looking for other explanations for the data, the researchers came up with another far feteched theory: the lattice theory of direct energy transfer. As far as the specific factors go: The causitive agent remains unclear: Energy can be stored in many forms and heat effects can have innumerable causes. Effects near the limit of detectibility: The only evidence of nuclear reactions presented to the DOE was Helium-4 production, which was detected at background levels or barely above. When above, air contamination would explain the result (according to the report). As far as gamma rays: I do not even know if you claim them now. You mentioned X-ray plates. The 2004 DOE applicants did not claim gamma rays, but advanced the lattice theory. Claims for great accuracy: Check how many times "irrefutable proof" is used above. Btw, there is no such thing in science. Fantastic theory: Fusion at room temperature. Criticisms are met by ad hoc excuses (not to mention hostility): See the foregoing discussion I'll ask you specifically: could any experimental result cause you to reject the nuclear reaction theory? If not, is you belief in cold fusion different from a religious belief? If it hass become a religious belief to some, if it has a life of its own, if the theory cannot die no matter how poorly it performs, then pathological is a good description.Paul V. Keller (talk) 23:55, 29 November 2008 (UTC)[reply] Paul V. Keller wrote: I mean a theory that will not go away no matter how much evidence accumulates that it is not a good theory. In this case, I pointed out that the theory would have predicted gamma rays. Gamma rays were not found. Instead of rejecting the cold fusion theory and looking for other explanations for the data . . . Obviously, this means that cold fusion is a nuclear process that does not (often) produce gamma rays. That is not a theory; it is an observation. Cold fusion produces heat and helium commensurate with the heat, therefore it is fusion. Or do you claim that a chemical process can do this? A chemical process with no chemical fuel and no chemical ash? That is much more farfetched than the nuclear hypothesis. The causitive agent remains unclear: Energy can be stored in many forms and heat effects can have innumerable causes. Chemical energy can only be stored to roughly 4 eV per atom. Cold fusion has produced 10,000 eV per atom, with no known upper limit. (That is, the reaction did not stop on its own.) There are not "innumerable causes" of heat effects but only three: mechanical, chemical and nuclear. Effects near the limit of detectibility: The only evidence of nuclear reactions presented to the DOE was Helium-4 production . . . A great deal more than that was presented to the DoE! Tritium, gamma rays, x-rays and neutrons were also presented, although obviously not at levels commensurate with a plasma fusion reaction. . . . which was detected at background levels or barely above. When above, air contamination would explain the result (according to the report). I am not sure which report you refer to, but that is mistaken. Helium has been detected at levels above atmospheric concentration in some cases. In other cases it is far below these levels, and as Miles points out, it would have to leak in at fantastically well controlled levels to achieve just the right ratio to the heat, and it would have to leave behind the other gasses in the air. There is no known way to make that happen. As far as gamma rays: I do not even know if you claim them now. Then you are not familiar with the literature. You mentioned X-ray plates. The 2004 DOE applicants did not claim gamma rays, but advanced the lattice theory. Theory has no bearing on cold fusion. It is an experimental observation. It has no theoretical explanation yet, as far as I know. Claims for great accuracy: Check how many times "irrefutable proof" is used above. Btw, there is no such thing in science. Who has refuted cold fusion experiments? Please tell me the title of a peer-reviewed paper that points out significant errors in major cold fusion papers. Fantastic theory: Fusion at room temperature. This is an observation, not a theory, as I said. Criticisms are met by ad hoc excuses (not to mention hostility): See the foregoing discussion There is nothing ad hoc about the methods used to confirm cold fusion. They are all conventional, reliable experimental techniques performed by experts, and they have been repeated thousands of times. I'll ask you specifically: could any experimental result cause you to reject the nuclear reaction theory? Certainly! It is obvious! All you have to do is demonstrate that a chemical reaction can produce a hundred megajoules from a mole of chemically inert material, without producing chemical ash. Plus you have to show how it can produce helium and tritium. Alternatively, all you have to do is show that conventional calorimetry, tritium detection, x-ray film and so on do not work, or that they were done incorrectly. Looking at calorimetry: many different calorimeter types have been used to confirm cold fusion heat, such as static, flow, and Seebeck. These techniques have been used in countless experiments, in many different fields of chemistry, biology and nuclear physics, going back to the 1840s. The instruments, techniques, and calibration method used by Fleischmann and Pons and others were developed by J. P. Joule in the 1840s, and the instruments that Joule himself used were good enough to measure cold fusion heat with confidence. Many high-tech, modern methods have also been employed, such as IR cameras at the U.S. Navy, and microcalorimeters at Tsinghua U. Researchers have measured heat ranging from a fraction of a watt to over 100 W, with no input power in some cases. This has been done in over 200 labs. So, to disprove the heat results, you need only show that the results from all of these different calorimeter types, in different labs, operated by different people, were all -- without exception -- mistaken (or fraudulent). Or you might show that calorimetry itself does not work because the laws of thermodynamics are wrong. (Some skeptics make this claim.) It isn't enough to falsify one or two of these results; you have to show mistakes in hundreds of experiments, and thousands of runs. Because if even one of these results is right, then cold fusion is real, and it is not a chemical reaction. I think there is no chance you can prove that all these experiments were in error. No widely replicated experiment in history has ever been shown to be a mistake. Replicated experiments are the only standard of truth. What the instruments show to be true must be accepted as truth, when it has been seen by many researchers. You might quibble with the number of replications needed. Some might want 5 quality replications; others might hold out for 10. But to continue to deny the results after they have been replicated hundreds of times is to deny the experimental method itself. - Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org

I have made changes to the intro which are relatively bold. I tried to gather similar references together and eliminate redundant statements, and I also changed some details of the phrasing. If you feel these changes are not in the right direction, I ask that we discuss the intro here. Olorinish (talk) 03:41, 25 November 2008 (UTC)[reply]

I have said this before on the talk page but I disagree with the statement "Cold fusion gained a reputation as pathological science after several researchers presented reports of failed replication attempts at conferences and in journals." It wasn't so much that they "failed" to get result but "didn't" get the same conclusion. In fact many of them observed the same results but could explain it without fusion. It wasn't just a negative results the follow ups explained a large number of theoretical and experimental flaws in the original work. One of these follow-up papers was in the room I had group meetings and I would thumb through it when things got slow. I made edits to reflect this and they have since been reverted.--OMCV (talk) 05:23, 25 November 2008 (UTC)[reply]

OMCV wrote:

. . . it wasn't so much that they "failed" to get result but "didn't" get the same conclusion. In fact many of them observed the same results but could explain it without fusion.

Who are you talking about? Which researchers observed "the same" results, and how did they "explain" them? Where did they publish? Please be specific. I am not aware of anyone who has observed megajoules of heat per mole of reactant, no measurable chemical changes, and yet who claims these results can be explained by anything other than a nuclear process.

Unless you can cite specific authors, papers and claims, your statement is unsubstantiated opinion, and should not be included in a serious review of cold fusion.

It wasn't just a negative results the follow ups explained a large number of theoretical and experimental flaws in the original work.

Apart from the neutron results in the first paper, what experimental flaws do you mean? Again, which authors, and which papers do you refer to? What theoretical flaws do you have in mind? As far as I know, cold fusion is entirely experimental, without a theoretical basis, so how can there be theoretical flaws? The only theory involved are the laws of thermodynamics which govern calorimetry, and the various theories that govern mass spectroscopy, x-ray detection and so on. Do you think the laws of thermodynamics are in error? (I am asking seriously: some skeptics do claim that thermodynamics and calorimeters fundamentally do not work, and they say this is all that cold fusion researchers have discovered.)

- Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org —Preceding unsigned comment added by 208.65.88.243 (talk) 21:19, 29 November 2008 (UTC)[reply]

OMCV, I see what you are talking about. What would an improved version look like? Olorinish (talk) 16:30, 25 November 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Thanks for addressing my comments despite their stilted grammar. My point was that follow-up researchers claims on the work of Pons and Fleischmann were not limited to its irreproducibility (and thus fraudulence). The usual claim was that their cell was badly designed and they didn't account for all known phenomenon (poorly informed rather than liars). Phenomenon insufficiently accounted for included things like voltage vs. faradaic efficiency. I don't bring this up to discuss the validity of the pros or cons of P&F's claims. I think the page should be clearly state what the con claims were regardless of whether they are "right".

I would direct the reader to Nate Lewis' analysis of the situation. For a simple example I'm sure many are aware of "the cell that exploded"; P&F believed this was the result of nuclear reaction but Lewis suggests it was the chemical reaction between hydrogen and oxygen in a semi-closed vessel. Thankfully not all scientists jump to conclusion they found a nuclear reaction every time they blow something up.

The paper I was thinking of was Lewis NS, et al Nature 340 (1989) 525-530. At the moment I don't have a copy to reference but this paper is conspicuously absent from this page since for many researchers it was the definitive end of the P&F work and their version of cold fusion. The nature paper represents a bunch of reliable researchers publishing in a major journal a debunking of wild claims form a number of individuals on the fringe (some of them widely assumed to be crazy: Bockris). I'm not saying that this is right but this was the way many scientist understood the situation. This is the history regardless of content debate.

Olorinish, I would like to write something but I would not be able to sufficiently cite it at the moment. But anyone who is widely read in the cold fusion literature should be able to explain my point. Jed Rothwell I see you have translated a book on the subject, maybe you could correct the error with proper citation.--OMCV (talk) 03:41, 1 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

There had been agreement to include this in the intro description of the 2004 DOE report:

Of eighteen reviewers, twelve decided the occurrence of low energy nuclear reactions was not conclusively demonstrated by the evidence, five were somewhat convinced, and one believed that the occurrence was demonstrated.

But that simple factual statement which puts proportions to the sides of the controversy has been considered "too detailed" and "cherry picking parts of the report to make cold fusion look better". Why? Why is simply telling the numbers from polling the jury too detailed? Why is it cherry picking?

Why is this information about the proportion of experts holding different viewpoints not an essential component of representing the different points of view neutrally in a controversial science article such as this one? 69.228.200.155 (talk) 13:53, 27 November 2008 (UTC)[reply]

To me it seems out of place in the intro. The intro is meant to give a broad overview, not specifics, and the information is available later in the article so it's not being left out. Phil153 (talk) 14:16, 27 November 2008 (UTC)[reply]

The consensus is, I believe, to keep the specificity out of the intro. We are more detailed in the relevant section. ScienceApologist (talk) 01:42, 30 November 2008 (UTC)[reply]

If we narrow down the complete biography to only the top APS journals, then here is the breakdown:

I believe "res0" indicates neutral results, while "res-" is certainly negative. Some of these are strictly theoretical, but a few are experimental upper bounds contradicting the claims of cold fusion proponents. So how does the article currently cover this distribution of positive versus negative results?

Proponents estimate that 3,000 cold fusion papers have been published, including over 1,000 journal papers and books, where the latter number includes both pro and con articles.

Right, still some way to go before this article is NPOV wrt reliable sources, but at least the lead seems decently accurate now. Good work! Vesal (talk) 13:51, 30 November 2008 (UTC)[reply]

I looked for the "res+" article in Phys. Rev. C and I believe it is the one by Southon et al. It is obvious that it should be labeled as a "res0" or "res-" article, which should raise doubts about all of the labels on that page. Olorinish (talk) 14:31, 30 November 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Why do you assume that Phys. Rev. is the only reliable source of information? What about J. Electroanal. Chem. or Jap. J. Appl. Physics? In the past there have been many scientific controversies in which some journal editors turned out to be wrong, and others right. There is no reason to think that the editors of Phys. Rev. are better able to judge this issue than the editors of these other journals.

In any case, "reliability" is not a function of the publication, but rather the instruments, techniques and signal to noise ratio, and by the number of independent replications. Cold fusion results are highly reliable by these standards. No other standards apply in science. Even if the results were not published at all, they would still be highly reliable.

- Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org —Preceding unsigned comment added by 208.65.88.243 (talk • contribs)

As far as WP:RS goes, reliability is a function of the standards of the publication. Hut 8.5 16:22, 30 November 2008 (UTC)[reply]

I repeat the question then: Why is Phys. Rev. more reliable than Jap. J. Appl. Physics? The latter is the most prestigious journal in Japan. It is the journal of the Japanese Physical Society, just as Phys. Rev. is the journal of the APS. Is there a suggestion here that Japan is a second-rate nation, and that only American journals and scientific societies are reliable? Or that electrochemistry is not as scientific as physics? Cold fusion results have been published in the leading journals of plasma physics. Are these less reliable than Phys. Rev.?

The APS has a long history of outrageous prejudice against fusion. Schwinger resigned to protest their attitude. Their journal reflects this attitude. They are not a reliable source of information about this topic.

- Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org —Preceding unsigned comment added by 208.65.88.243 (talk • contribs)

Nobody here is saying that Phys. Rev. is the only source of reliable information, and you know that. What is important is that the Physical Review journals are the most important mainstream journals for physics results, at least in the US and arguably in the world. Journals like theirs which routinely report on physics topics and are widely read by physicists are definitely more likely to correctly evaluate physics articles. I find it very significant that Mosier-Boss et al. chose to publish four of their articles in Naturwissenschaften, which is essentially a biology journal, rather that in physics journals. That doesn't mean they should be ignored completely, and in fact two are listed in the current version of this article. But it does suggest that the reports were not quite solid enough to pass the review process for Physical Review.

Regarding the Japanese Journal of Applied Physics, my recollection is that none of those articles show any direct nuclear reaction detection data, but I could be wrong.

Regarding the publication of articles in plasma physics journals, what articles are you talking about?

Regarding your statement that "Even if the results were not published at all, they would still be highly reliable," it is important to remember that publication is extremely important to the modern scientific process.

Regarding your claim that Physical Review is "not reliable on this topic," what evidence supports this, beyond the Schwinger episode?

On another topic, I notice that you still haven't listed your choice of the three most persuasive reports of nuclear reactions related to cold fusion, as I requested. Olorinish (talk) 17:03, 30 November 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Olorinish wrote:

Nobody here is saying that Phys. Rev. is the only source of reliable information, and you know that.

If that is not what they are saying, then why do they list only Phys. Rev. and not the other journals I mentioned? It seems to me that is exactly what they are saying.

Journals like theirs which routinely report on physics topics and are widely read by physicists are definitely more likely to correctly evaluate physics articles.

The editors at Phys. Rev. have told me and many others that they have not read any papers on cold fusion, and they will not read or review any in the future. All papers are returned to the authors unread. So they know nothing about this subject.

I find it very significant that Mosier-Boss et al. chose to publish four of their articles in Naturwissenschaften, which is essentially a biology journal, rather that in physics journals.

This is because Phys. Rev., Nature and some other well-known journals summarily reject all submissions about cold fusion, without review, as I said. They have told Mosier-Boss and many others that is their policy.

Regarding the publication of articles in plasma physics journals, what articles are you talking about?

Fusion Technology, Nucl. Fusion Plasma Phys., J. Phys. D: Appl. Phys., J. Fusion Energy. (this is a kind of a trade magazine of the plasma fusion researchers, published by their lobby organization in Maryland, so perhaps it is not peer-reviewed . . . Not sure.)

Regarding your statement that "Even if the results were not published at all, they would still be highly reliable," it is important to remember that publication is extremely important to the modern scientific process.

I was kidding. Unlike you, I really do believe in the peer-review process and the importance of publications. That is why I am convinced that cold fusion is real: because of all those hundreds of peer-reviewed papers I have read. I believe in peer-review, but the Phys. Rev. editors do not, as I said, since they do send out cold fusion papers for review.

Regarding your claim that Physical Review is "not reliable on this topic," what evidence supports this, beyond the Schwinger episode?

The letters sent by their editors to me and to researchers.

On another topic, I notice that you still haven't listed your choice of the three most persuasive reports of nuclear reactions related to cold fusion, as I requested.

I did respond, but someone deleted my messages. Sorry about that. There is no point to responding again because I will only be censored again. In general let me suggest you start with the review articles by Storms at LENR-CANR.org because they are well organized and conveniently hyperlinked to the papers they refer to. The book by Storms has much more detail, with hundreds of footnotes.

The principal nuclear reaction, obviously, is deuterium to helium plus heat energy in the same ratio as plasma fusion. Why this occurs without neutrons I have no idea, but the fact that it does occur is clearly shown by the instruments, in both real time (on-line mass spec.) and off line mass spectroscopy.

- Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org —Preceding unsigned comment added by 208.65.88.243 (talk • contribs)

Jed, your description of Vesal's comments is deceptive. You misrepresented him by stating that he viewed Physical Review as being the only reliable source on these topics, while he are clearly stating that it is a top source. That is a big difference because your version implies that he is being unreasonable.

Your comment that "Unlike you, I really do believe in the peer-review process and the importance of publications," is also deceptive. I am a strong believer in the peer review process and everything I have posted on wikipedia backs that up.

Regarding your comment that Physical Review and other journals refuse to review papers on cold fusion, is there a way I could see documentation of this?

Your response to my request about articles was not deleted. It can be viewed by clicking "show" in the relevant section. So I ask again, please list the three reports (preferably not review articles) that you believe are most persuasive of cold fusion nuclear reactions. I also ask again for persuasive articles from significant fusion journals. Please give the title and authors, since it is not easy to find things at LENR-CANR.org. Olorinish (talk) 18:16, 30 November 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Olorinish wrote:

Jed, your description of Vesal's comments is deceptive. You misrepresented him by stating that he viewed Physical Review as being the only reliable source on these topics . . .

This list shows only paper from Phys. Rev. Anyone familiar with cold fusion will know that the editors at Phys. Rev. have it in for cold fusion. Listing this journal only, and leaving out the others, is biased. It is preposterous. That's my opinion and I'm sticking with it.

Your comment that "Unlike you, I really do believe in the peer-review process and the importance of publications," is also deceptive.

You and the other so-called skeptics have repeatedly erased peer-reviewed information about cold fusion and substituted your own unfounded opinions. You pay lip service to peer-review, but you have no respect for the system or its results. If you did, you would believe cold fusion is real, because the overwhelming number of actual published scientific results prove that to be the case, and not one credible peer-reviewed paper has ever been published showing an error in a major cold fusion result. The score is roughly 1000 to 0 in favor of cold fusion. Read the skeptical papers at LENR-CANR.org and see for yourself!

I am a strong believer in the peer review process and everything I have posted on wikipedia backs that up.

Perhaps you believe this but you do not know yourself. And you certainly do not know the literature on cold fusion!

Regarding your comment that Physical Review and other journals refuse to review papers on cold fusion, is there a way I could see documentation of this?

Sure! Ask the editors or anyone else at the APS. They are not shy about expressing their opinions on this subject. Ask Robert Park, who sets the policy on cold fusion at the APS. Read his columns.

Your response to my request about articles was not deleted. It can be viewed by clicking "show" in the relevant section. So I ask again, please list the three reports (preferably not review articles) . . .

I'll be darned! That works. Click on "show" and look for the author "Gozzi" and you will see what I recommended.

I also ask again for persuasive articles from significant fusion journals. Please give the title and authors, since it is not easy to find things at LENR-CANR.org.

Start with the papers I listed and then do your own homework, please. You may not agree with me about what is "persuasive." For example, I find it very persuasive when a cell with ~20 ml of water and a few grams of palladium produces megajoules of energy with no input power and no chemical changes, and it produces helium. I think that is proof that a nuclear reaction is occurring. However, you may not find that persuasive, so perhaps you should look at some other aspect of cold fusion, such as tritium production or host-metal transmutations.

It is easy to find things at LENR-CANR.org. Use the Google search box on the front page, which limits searches to LENR-CANR.org. Or use our extensive indexing system. Or, if you write a lot of papers about cold fusion, e-mail me and I will send you the EndNote files.

- Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org —Preceding unsigned comment added by 208.65.88.243 (talk • contribs)

I wrote: "Use the Google search box on the front page . . ." What I mean is: you stuff the author and keyword text from the "Gozzi" message into the Google search box and presto, the papers pop up.

- Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org —Preceding unsigned comment added by 208.65.88.243 (talk • contribs)

All the articles you cite in the table above are from 1989 or 1990. Since then, other papers have been published in reputable sources, or by the 2004 DOE. NPOV requires us to present significant views that have been published in reputable sources. The balance of views should be based on published secondary sources, such as the 2004 DOE or review books published in academic press, not on our original research among a limited set of journals. Pcarbonn (talk) 16:59, 30 November 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Olorinish asked again for convincing articles about nuclear reactions. I thought I gave him references to such articles on his talk page, but here they are, just to be sure (and I add one from EPJ-AP):

• Iwamura, Yasuhiro; Sakano, Mitsuru; Itoh, Takehiko (2002), "Elemental Analysis of Pd Complexes: Effects of D₂ Gas Permeation", Japanese Journal of Applied Physics '41' (7A): 4642–4650
• ''Mosier-Boss, Pamela A.; Szpak, Stanislaw; Gordon, Frank E.; Forsley, L. P. G. (2008), "Triple tracks in CR-39 as the result of Pd–D Co-deposition: evidence of energetic neutrons", Naturwissenschaften, doi:10.1007/s00114-008-0449-x
• Mosier-Boss, Pamela A.; Szpak, Stanislaw; Gordon, Frank E.; Forsley, L. P. G. (2007), "Use of CR-39 in Pd/D co-deposition experiments", European Physical Journal Applied Physics 40: 293–303, doi:10.1051/epjap:2007152

Pcarbonn (talk) 20:26, 30 November 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Pcarbonn is correct that he provided me with some links before, visible in the archive of his talk page, and it is useful that he also provided these. I asked Jed Rothwell for his list to see what he thought about the field. Olorinish (talk) 12:38, 1 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Those links did not work, but I found the first article. http://www.lenr-canr.org/acrobat/IwamuraYelementalaa.pdfPaul V. Keller (talk) 21:04, 30 November 2008 (UTC)[reply]

I have now fixed the other 2 links. Pcarbonn (talk) 21:15, 30 November 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Thank you, I looked briefly at the paper by Mosier-Boss, but I'm not an expert in this field. I would have to agree that it is "somewhat convincing", although they provide no explanation at all why this all might happen. Theories are under development... Still, I do not mean to say that these papers are insignificant, but when assessing due weight you also have to take into account the fact that the APS journals have only published negative results. That they now dismiss positive experimental results without review is actually sad, but I read somewhere that they are softening their stance... Vesal (talk) 22:02, 30 November 2008 (UTC)[reply]

I looked at the paper by Iwamura et al. I found it well written, but it stretches credulity even further than the original cold fusion work. In each case, four seperate deuterium nuclei are brought to combine with single Cs or Sr nuclei. Even without energy barriers that would be a tall order. Nuclei are very small compared to the space around them. There would have to be intermediates. Even molecular reactions with more than two reactants necessarily proceed through intermediates. And the intermediates must be stable enough to survive until the following steps have time to occur. As a follow up, locating the intermediate species would make sense, but there are other things to do as well. Repetition by independent groups. Study of the way conversion rate varies with parameters such as D2 flux. If a new phenomena has been identified, it should be easy to engage in a process of developing a more detailed picture. This paper was published in 2002. What advances has Iwamura's group made in the last seven years?

Iwamura et al. did reference a EINR model that might partially explain his results, but I could not find a report of that mode (that I did not have to pay for). It would be good to know not only what the model is, but what is being done to test it. What I am looking for is a scientific process.Paul V. Keller (talk) 23:11, 30 November 2008 (UTC)[reply]

The Mosier-Boss work shows cold fusion research reversing its claim there are no gamma rays. Previous efforts to detect gamma rays failed. One direction taken was to come up with a spectacular theory, the lattice theory, to account for their absence (See 2004 DOE report). Mosier-Boss go in another direction, they get rid of the old detector and start using one operating on a different principle, with a scanty track record for detecting gamma rays and differentiating them from other emissions. The pits Mosier-Boss observed had many causes: the difference with the deuterium-free control was a matter of degree and not kind. If this field were advancing as science, I am sure gamma rays would be demonstrated in more ways than one and that there would be some reconciliation with earlier work failing to show gamma rays. We would be learning more about the types of gamma rays and their density. As it is, going to a new detector when the old one did not show the predicted result is more evidence of pathological science. If we were to amend the article in view of these papers, we could as easily use them to illustrate the pathological science aspect as to show an apparant confirmation of the original theory.Paul V. Keller (talk) 01:32, 1 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Paul V. Keller wrote:

. . . we could as easily use them to illustrate the pathological science aspect as to show an apparant confirmation of the original theory.

Cold fusion is purely experimental. It is not based on theory, or guided by theory, and at present no theory can explain it. The notion that there is an "original theory" to "go back to" is nonsense. Szpak and others are trying to determine the nature of the reaction using different techniques. They are not trying to prove or disprove any particular theory, but rather to find out what nature has to teach us.

Keller is incorrect about gamma rays. They have been detected with other instruments, by Iwamura and others. He wrote: "We would be learning more about the types of gamma rays and their density." We would be indeed, if the field were properly funded. Most cold fusion researchers pay for experiments themselves, and they cannot afford more elaborate or expensive equipment, so they use things like CR39, which is cheap. The field is not funded because there is enormous academic opposition to it, which comes mainly from people like Keller who do not read the literature and thus know nothing about the research, and yet who feel free to fabricate claims about it such as the notion that gamma rays have not been detected by other means! And also to free associate and invent new definitions for "pathological science" such as: "returning to the original theory."

Despite the opposition, a great deal of progress has been made, and the effect is now produced at SRI nearly every time at power levels and input to output ratios 10 to 40 times larger than they were a few years ago. If this field were not "advancing as science" that would not be the case.

- Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org —Preceding unsigned comment added by 208.65.88.243 (talk • contribs)

Wikipedia's reliability standards require a survey of the peer-reviewed literature, not some subset thereof (e.g. "top APS journals") selected to show a particular result. That the skeptics are reduced to such attempts to cherry pick shows exactly how far the peer-reviewed literature is from the imaginary "mainstream" which only exists as part of the prejudices of people who have invested their emotions in taking the side opposed to the experimental results. A neutral presentation requires summarization in accordance with the totality of peer-reviewed publications on the matter; any attempt to pick a subset which skews the result will be seen as such. I recommend going through the Britz bibliography of peer-reviewed papers and counting only the res+ and res- publications which are not based in theory, but rather in actual empirical experiments. 69.228.231.250 (talk) 10:54, 1 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

It's not the place of Wikipedia to do such research. Wikipedia doesn't do literature surveys except to establish notability. When providing a position on a field of study, we're limited to summarizing information about the topic from the most reliable second hand sources, such as meta reviews published in leading journals, the positions of authoritative bodies, the results of investigations by reliable NPOV parties, and newspaper articles from good sources. All of these, with no exceptions that I know of, consider cold fusion to be fringe science and largely unworthy of serious investigation or funding. See, for example, the DOE report, this article in the Washington post, which quotes prominent members of the physics community, and so on. See also: Wikipedia:Fringe#Notability_versus_acceptance Phil153 (talk) 11:39, 1 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

You say : "All of these, with no exceptions that I know of, consider cold fusion to be fringe science and largely unworthy of serious investigation or funding." You must be mistaken. The 2004 DOE, Hubler 2007, Biberian 2007, Storms 2007, Marwan 2008, are respected meta-reviews that say the contrary and are superior to news articles such as NYT for scientific topics. You'll see their full reference in our article. Again, Wikipedia is a NPOV encyclopedia, not a WP:MAINSTREAM encyclopedia. Pcarbonn (talk) 12:39, 1 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

You're claiming 2004 DOE contradicts my statement? The majority of reviewers said that even excess heat had not been established, let alone "fusion" being the most likley explanation. They clearly did not think it worthy of serious investigation or serious funding.

The 2004 DOE says : "The nearly unanimous opinion of the reviewers in the 2004 review was that funding agencies should entertain individual, well-designed proposals for experiments that address specific scientific issues relevant to the question of whether or not there is anomalous energy production in Pd/D systems, or whether or not D-D fusion reactions occur at energies on the order of a few electron volts (eV).". So, yes, the 2004 DOE contradicts your statement. Pcarbonn (talk) 16:54, 1 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

I'm aware of what 2004 DOE says. But they don't recommend budgeting money for research, as they regularly do in other areas; they don't recommend putting together a task force or partnership with universities to do serious research into cold fusion. Their recommendation is that well designed proposals to investigate the remaining unknowns should be entertained. This is neither serious investigation nor funding, merely an acknowledgement that the area still has enough unknowns that solid proposals for research should be entertained. Contrast this with the Japanese government's direct funding and promotion of cold fusion research in the 90s (which they later abandoned after some years), or the ongoing, active DOE promotion of research into various aspects of fission and waste products. Phil153 (talk) 17:10, 1 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Biberian 2007 offers nothing new. Read his list of references, the large majority come from The Xth International Conference on Cold Fusion. He is presenting a non critical summary of claims published in completely unreliable sources. This is not a meta review of reliable primary sources, but an opinion piece published in a very questionable journal. The Int. J. Nuclear Energy Science and Technology, first published in 2004, could not even charitably be called a reliable source, especially for claims rejected by the mainstream scientific establishment.

I haven't read Hubbler or Storms yet but I think it's clear that DOE 2004 supports my statement above, while Biberian 2007 fails completely as a reliable source.Phil153 (talk) 13:33, 1 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Indeed, DOE won't recommend a cold fusion research program until the scientific controversy is favorably resolved. This is an economic decision. If they thought that the controversy was already negatively resolved, they would not have written what they have. So, the scientific controversy is still unresolved, and we should present both sides of it. And please, read Hubler 2007, Storms2007, and Marwan 2008 (ISBN 978-0-8412-6966-8) to have a full view of the reputable sources. Pcarbonn (talk) 17:43, 1 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Actually, the DOE review says that there is a scientific case to justify funding some research, and gives advice on resolving "some of the controversies in the field". It doesn't say that the field itself has an unresolved controversy. --Enric Naval (talk) 01:06, 2 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Concerning the replication of iwamura's work, here is what an older version of our article said : "The experiment was replicated by researchers from Osaka University using Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry to analyze the nature of the surface (the Pd complex samples were provided by Iwamura). " The source is : Higashiyama, Taichi; Sakano, Mitsuru; Miyamaru, Hiroyuki; Takahashi, Akito (2003), "Replication of MHI Transmutation Experiment by D2 Gas Permeation Through Pd Complex", Tenth International Conference on Cold Fusion, Cambridge, MA: LENR-CANR.org

The replication was not by an independent group. One of the author's is the same. On the bright side, there is part of a theoretical discussion, and some proposals cosnsitent with what would be science as I asserted below (drafted earlier). On the downside, it looks like pure BS. Touching on one of the more tractable points, they said they needed a vacuum to get deuterium into the reaction zone. The vacuum only takes deuterium away from the reaction zone. Frankly, I am now doubting not just their accuracy, but their honesty.Paul V. Keller (talk) 00:02, 2 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Science without theory is not science. Experiments without hypothesis are not following the scientific method. All experimentalists rely heavily on theory, including the ones whose findings you credit. You need theory to interpret XPS and mass spectronomy data. You need theory to understand your calorimetry data. In fact, the closer you look at any of the experiments described in your literature, the more you will see reliance on hundreds of assumptions about the way things work. Theories get replaced and new hypothesis put forward, but if you throw away everything that's ever been known or thought to be understood, you will have nothing left to interpret your results. Experimentalists could not hypothesize fusion without drawing on theoretical understanding that such phenomena exist and release energy. Come up with a hypothesis to explain Iwamara and you will know what experiment to do next: if you agree it is a multistep process, figure out what intermediates to look for and in what concentration ranges to look for them. If you think the process starts with four deuterium chemically bonded to a Cs atom, predict what happens to the rate if you mix in 50% hydrogen and try to confirm that experimentally. Without that kind of process, it is not science.Paul V. Keller (talk) 23:32, 1 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Iwamura's paper is scientific enough to be published in Japanese Journal of Applied Physics. We are not evaluating content here, only the reliability of sources. Also, you may want to read Thomas_Samuel_Kuhn or Paul_Feyerabend about what Science is and is not. Pcarbonn (talk) 11:47, 2 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

I agree that the steps you suggest would be beneficial. However, you are assuming that such experiments could produce reliable results. And that requires the phenomena to be highly reproducable. That's why scientists have been so focused on improving reproducibility and control, instead of doing experiments like you suggest. Without these two things, the results of experiments like you suggest would be so swamped by noise (statistical uncertainty) that they would be effectively meaningless. You see, good science requires a high degree of control, and these people, like good scientists, are working towards that goal.

I don't know why you went on that spiel about theory, because obviously - as you, yourself point out - they would not be making any progress without it. But I hope you are not putting the cart before the horse here. Theory comes after experiment. After many, many experiments, actually. It models the results of empirical evidence, not the other way around. And it is far from a perfect model, as models inevitably are. But that's why we have science. Kevin Baas^talk 18:30, 4 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Nobody is saying that the Japanese Journal of Applied Physics or the European Physical Journal are less reliable. The problem is that almost every positive paper is cited, but not a single one of the negative papers from the above APS journals. Every lab that has succeeded in reproducing the results is mentioned, but not those that failed or came up with experimental counter-claims. Why? Vesal (talk) 19:10, 2 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Because editors are engaging in cherry-picking of favorable primary sources, instead of relying on reliable secondary sources that make the analysis for them --Enric Naval (talk) 19:21, 2 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Vasal asks:

The problem is that almost every positive paper is cited, but not a single one of the negative papers from the above APS journals.

There are no negative papers in APS journals, or anywhere else. Only about a dozen negative papers have been published in history of cold fusion. You will find most of them at LENR-CANR.org.

There were several early papers describing experiments that did not work. That's a null, not a negative. The authors did not discover any fault in the positive experiments, or any other reason to doubt them. The reasons these early experiments failed is new well understood and has been described in detail.

Actually, the three most famous negative papers, at Cal Tech, Harwell and MIT were false negatives. (Actually positive.) They all got excess heat at the same rate as others did in 1989, but they did not realize it, or they erased it and published fake results.

As it happens, we just today uploaded a review paper discussing some of early failures, and the reasons for them:

http://lenr-canr.org/acrobat/CravensDtheenablin.pdf

The authors examined 174 papers, in detail. They did a lot of analysis not shown in the paper. (I assisted so I know about it.)

Every lab that has succeeded in reproducing the results is mentioned, but not those that failed or came up with experimental counter-claims. Why?

There are no experimental counter-claims. No one has ever done an experiment that calls into question cold fusion, or an experiment with a prosaic explanation that exhibits the same behavior (i.e., one that produces tritium or megajoules of heat per mole of reactant.)

The failures were all for obvious reasons not worth discussing in detail unless you are an expert. Of course you can read about them at LENR-CANR.org to your heart's delight. I have compiled a list of null and false negative experiments; contact me via the front page.

- Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org

Ugh, So much OR. Experiments with no results (failed replications) don't count as negative, and negative papers were actually positive because either the authors didn't notice they were positive or they lied about the results. Peer-reviewed papers published on top journals on the field are countered with proof from a cold fusion conference paper. My eyes, they hurt. --Enric Naval (talk) 07:01, 3 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Enric Naval wrote:

Experiments with no results (failed replications) don't count as negative . . .

Obviously not, since the reasons they failed are well understood. When U.S. Vanguard missiles exploded in 1957 and 1958, that did not call into doubt the existence of the Russian Sputnik satellite. Negative experiments from labs that never succeeded failed for the same reasons some experiments failed at SRI and other successful labs: critical levels of loading, current density, flux or some other control parameter were not achieved.

. . . and negative papers were actually positive because either the authors didn't notice they were positive or they lied about the results.

Would you count them as negative? If you have any doubt that the data is fake, I suggest you review this paper, pages 21 - 24:

http://lenr-canr.org/acrobat/MilesMisoperibol.pdf

Or this one:

http://lenr-canr.org/acrobat/MalloveEmitspecial.pdf

Peer-reviewed papers published on top journals on the field are countered with proof from a cold fusion conference paper.

There are no peer-reviewed papers from top journals that call cold fusion into question. Not one study and not one paper has ever demonstrated an error in a positive cold fusion paper. If anyone ever did find an error, it would not only disprove cold fusion, it would overthrow the laws of thermodynamics and a large part of chemistry and physics going back to 1860. That isn't going to happen.

- Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org

It's you personally and unreliable sources who are saying that reliable sources should not be taken into account or had fake data. It's not a reliable asource saying that. Wikipedia uses only reliable sources. Do you understand now what the problem is? --Enric Naval (talk) 16:25, 4 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Enric Naval wrote:

It's you personally . . .

It is NEVER me personally. Every assertion I make is backed by gold-plated, peer-reviewed data, which you can find at a university library.

. . .and unreliable sources who are saying that reliable sources should not be taken into account or had fake data.

You can see at a glance that the data is fake! Part of the graph is replaced with crudely fabricated, hand-drawn data. The rest is regularly-spaced computer generated data. See D. Albagli et al., J. Fusion Energy, 1990, 9, pp. 133-148. That's peer-reviewed and often cited by skeptics, and obviously fake.

You can tell even more clearly because one of the researchers accidentally leaked the original data, which shows excess heat in the part that was replaced with hand-drawn dots. You can also read the official MIT hearing in which the researchers claimed they had no idea how the data was changed and they think it means nothing. It is all on the record in official sources.

All of this is described in the two papers I referenced above. I suggest you read something about this before commenting on it.

As for the "reliable sources" on null experiments, of course they should be "taken into account"! Everyone takes them into account. We know why the null experiments produced no heat; we can see that the false negatives are actually positive (just do the arithmetic right and you will see this); and anyone who looks at the fake data in the peer-reviewed paper will see that it is fake. You do not need to take my word for any of this -- the data speaks for itself.

- Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org —Preceding unsigned comment added by 68.19.98.26 (talk) 18:24, 4 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Jed, please start signing your talk page entries properly with four tildes (~). You've been nicely asked a few times on your talk page, but because you don't maintain a stable IP address it is unclear that you've seen the messages. By registering a user name you can avoid this IP hopping problem and have rational discussions with other editors.LeadSongDog (talk) 19:18, 4 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

LeadSongDog wrote:

Jed, please start signing your talk page entries properly with four tildes (~).

That doesn't work. It comes out the same as when I don't sign it, with the IP Address, like this:

68.19.98.26 (talk) 19:22, 4 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

You've been nicely asked a few times on your talk page

Not me. I don't have a talk page. Anyway, you can reach me anytime at LENR-CANR.org. Phone number, address and everything is there.

- Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org

If you click on the (talk) above, you'll see that the signature does work and that you in fact do have a talk page.LeadSongDog (talk) 19:38, 4 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

I tried the tilde signature above and all it does is generate the IP Address, the same as the robot does. I just clicked on the Talk link it does not have any info other than IP Address. So what's the point?

- Jed Rothwell, Librarian, LENR-CANR.org

I keep reading here about various experiments published hither and yon and arguments about them. No! The purpose of the talk page is not to debate the subject but to improve the article. "Peer review" is not a talisman preventing error, since working scientists agree that most published results are just wrong and weigh them accordingly. But cold fusion advocates and skeptics do agree on one thing: "Cold fusion" is viewed as bunk by mainstream science. The Wikipedia article should not leave its readers with any other impression. --72.74.17.230 (talk) 12:06, 2 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

I think some advocates would disagree with that statement. Regardless, the intro is muddled and unclear on this point, I'd propose changing it to something like this:

Cold fusion, also known as low energy nuclear reactions (LENR) or condensed matter nuclear science, is a name given to supposed nuclear fusion reactions hypothesized to occur at normal temperatures and pressures. Most physicists reject cold fusion as both an effect and a viable source of energy. However, low level research continues with some notable proponents.

Cold fusion gained prominence in 1989 when Martin Fleischmann and Stanley Pons reported anomalous heat production in an electrolytic cell during electrolysis of heavy water using palladium electrodes, which they proposed was due to nuclear fusion. Significant scientific and media attention followed. In the months after their report, a lack of reliable replication of the initial experiment and the lack of a viable theoretical basis caused the field to fall into disrepute. Today it is considered a kind of pathological science and most scientists remain skeptical of the field.

Phil153 (talk) 14:50, 2 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Oppose, obviously. Sources say that "most scientists" are skeptical, not that they reject cold fusion. Also, this intro is full of WP:weasel words, and gives too much weight to the view of "most scientists" as opposed to the one from reliable secondary sources. Pcarbonn (talk) 16:36, 2 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Reliable secondary sources catalog this rejection, and note that many journals will not even publish cold fusion research. I think reject is a very reasonable term to use. "Skeptical" isn't a strong enough word to describe how most scientists feel about cold fusion.

Also, weight *should* be given to the opinion of most scientists and the mainstream. If 95% of scientists think cold fusion is nonsense, it is far more important to stress this point in the introduction than anything cold fusion advocates say or publish.

Anyway, I don't propose the above text as the new intro, merely an example of how strongly the mainstream view (and its reasons for rejecting CF) should be presented in the intro, in order to have a balanced and accurate article for a layman. Phil153 (talk) 16:45, 2 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

You are wrong about rejection. The American Chemical Society has published a review book on cold fusion in 2008, distributed by Oxford University Press, cited above as Marwan 2008. They wouldn't if cold fusion was rejected, and there was no market for it; on the contrary, it is a proof that it is not rejected. World Scientific Publishing has published a book in 2007. This is a reliable secondary source. "Rejection" is not a "reasonable" term to use according to reliable secondary sources (and "most scientists" is not a reliable source for wikipedia). Pcarbonn (talk) 17:04, 2 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

And yet, the author of LENR-CANR.org, one of the most pro cold fusion sites around, states: the editors at Nature and Sci. Am. denounced cold fusion as fraud. Since then, the journals I listed (and most others) automatically reject any manuscript about cold fusion, usually with a polite form letter. Several researchers have shown me these form letters. If that isn't rejection by mainstream science, I don't know what would possibly satisfy you. In addition, the US patent office rejects cold fusion applications, just as it rejects perpetual motion machines. Here is a reliable source that explicitly states the rejection by mainstream scientists:

Erratic results such as those, coupled with the theoretical unlikelihood of the whole idea, long ago drove most mainstream scientists to dismiss cold fusion; they say that any indication of heat or nuclear byproducts is the result of an error in the experiment. Research money has dried up. The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office has refused to grant a patent on any invention claiming cold fusion. According to Esther Kepplinger, the deputy commissioner of patents, this is for the same reason it wouldn't give one for a perpetual motion machine: It doesn't work.

Given the above, would you accept "dismiss" instead of "reject"? "Skeptical" gives a poor description of most physicists' rejection of cold fusion.

Anyway, the scientist interest you are claiming does not exist except at the fringes. Also, one book - a book of evidence presented at a Chemistry symposium, or even several books - does not refute the fact that most physicists and physics journals reject cold fusion as stated above. Phil153 (talk) 18:39, 2 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Yes, I would accept "dismiss" instead of "reject" : "dismiss" means that they choose to ignore cold fusion; it does not mean that they say it is wrong on scientific ground. That also explains why some journals choose to not publish papers, while others have: it depends on editorial policy, not on the scientific status of the field. Also, you have changed from "most scientists" to "most physicists" : that may also be more accurate, as chemists seem more open to the idea of anomalous effects that cannot be explained by chemical theory, whatever the explanation. Pcarbonn (talk) 11:52, 3 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

I like coupled with the theoretical unlikelihood of the whole idea. The theoretical side is very important to understanding main stream science's view of cold fusion research. The erratic nature of the results would not be given the same interpretation if there were a plausible nuclear theory to explain appreciable cold fusion or if the interpretation of results proposed by cold fusion enthusiasts did not require a radical yet unspecified revision of our current understanding of nuclear reactions. http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=what-is-the-current-scien. (A 1999 article apropos today).

A study showing rain dances produce rain would not be, and should not be, interpreted without considering what we know about weather. Likewise, a study showing time dilation in an atomic clock moved around at high speeds would be of little significance absent that it tested and showed results consistent with relativity theory. In this case, I am concerned that the plausibility of cold fusion is greater the less one knows about the science that came before it.

A fundamental disagreement we have here is that one group thinks finding certain things implausible is bias, whereas another group understands finding certain things implausible is progress. Understanding what does and does not make sense is an important goal of science education. I have in mind here an anecdote at a commencement address about the response of legendary chemical engineering professor Neal R. Amundson to an inquiry about rumors of a chemical that could dissolve a tornado. Here, I think we would do a disservice if we left readers with a more optimistic view of cold fusion research than an understanding of science would warrant. The degree of contradiction with current theory and the significance of that contradiction need to be conveyed with clarity to do justice to this subject.Paul V. Keller (talk) 14:42, 3 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

I think that's an important point. One of the main reasons that true believers and skeptics talk past each other is the theoretical expectations. I like to think about it in terms of Bayesian priors. A similar case that springs to mind is the Fifth force. That field was also plagued with a few years of mixed results, but it was taken seriously (although eventually abandoned) because it was possible to think about the problem within the constraints of known physics. Anyway, we do not need to come to a consensus on the a priori likelihood of cold fusion and how that should affect our interpretation of the experimental reports. But we should make it clear in the article that the lack of theoretical underpinnings is considered by the skeptics to be a serious problem, regardless of the number of sigmas reported. Very similar to homeopathy as well. --Art Carlson (talk) 15:24, 3 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

That 1999 SciAm article has a now-broken link to the article archived here on the Wayback Machine. It describes an attempt to replicate the 1995 CETI "Patterson power cell" results that may be worth reading.LeadSongDog (talk) 16:49, 3 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

A second set of reports on an attempted replication of the Patterson Power Cell can be found on Scott Little's Web page (http://www.earthtech.org/experiments/index.html) under the 'CETI' subsection. There was a third attempt made as I recall, by a guy named Shaffer or Schafer or such at the time. It was reported in sci.physics.fusion, but is probably long gone by now. None of the three replications succeeded.Kirk shanahan (talk) 16:16, 4 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

BTW, I should note that the Little papers contain that subsection of work that comments on the use of SIMS to support nuclear heavy metal transmutation that I tried to include in the 'Criticisms' section of the CF Wiki article, and which Pcarbonn block deleted.

I have to plead guilty about putting technical discussions on these pages, but that was brought about because Pcarbonn wanted to argue every detail I tried to add. Some discussion was necessary anyway because I assumed the article should be written for an 'average' user not familiar with the field, and some of the quoted comments needed some explaining for those readers.

In agreement with the comments above, the article always was too biased towards the 'reality' of cold fusion, and I tried to make it less so, with the result that I was opposed at every step by Pcarbonn. The general state of affairs regarding cold fusion today, as observed by myself as a worker in the field of the materials claimed to show CF, is that the average scientist thinks the issue was setled c. 1994, with CF being declared 'bad science' (or pathological or pseudoscience, they don't tend to distinguish between these various terms). Almost universally (including me), these scientists when presented with current CF papers or statements say "What? I thought that was over." A very few are aware it is not, most of them are somewhat incensed that CF is NOT dead, and, at this point, only one (me) has actually studied the field and published conventional explanations (the other, W. B. Clarke, passed away). This situation has allowed the CF die-hards to experience a resurgence of their view in the popular press, since not enough informed scientists are available to stop them (which is not a nefarious plot, they just do lousy science and rarely make it through a good peer review) and they actively suppress mention of the outstanding criticisms of their work. Thus we have the recent book published via the ACS.Kirk shanahan (talk) 16:49, 4 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Someone wanted a tabulation of the Britz peer-reviewed paper database with 'res+' and 'res-' but not 'theory' above. I remember seeing something like that in the mediation pages but those have been deleted because of arbitration, for some reason I sure don't understand.

Please undelete the mediation pages. 208.54.83.58 (talk) 01:24, 3 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Could an admin check the deleted history and copy/paste that part of the pages on a sandbox? --Enric Naval (talk) 03:09, 3 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

http://www.chem.au.dk/~db/fusion/Papers presently has 313 papers with "res+" (case insensitive) on lines beginning "**" that do not contain "theor", and 234 similarly but with "res-" instead. 69.228.199.255 (talk) 03:15, 3 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Reproducibility contains some comments on cold fusion. Here is the relevant section (added by our neighborhood editor PCarbonn :))

At the end of May the US Energy Research Advisory Board found the evidence to be unconvincing, and cold fusion was dismissed as pseudoscience. Later on, successful replications by independent teams were reported in peer reviewed scientific journals, and, although the effect is not considered fully repeatable, the field eventually gained some scientific recognition.

My concerns are:

• Was it initially dismissed as pseudoscience?
• Has it "eventually gained some scientific recognition"?

(The 2004 DOE report, which did not differ substantially from 1989 report, is used as evidence of scientific recognition).

I'm concerned that perhaps this doesn't leave a balanced impression of cold fusion for the casual reader. Phil153 (talk) 00:29, 4 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

The 2004 DOE report does not constitute scientific recognition. The DOE simply agreed to be open minded and here a renewed application for funding. The state of acceptance, or lack thereof, has remained unchanged for at least ten years. http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=what-is-the-current-scien. A little research will show that these claims of breakthroughs and improved reproducibility are perennial.Paul V. Keller (talk) 01:54, 4 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Phil asked if CF was initially dismissed as pseudoscience. Initially, the scientific community went to great lengths to reproduce the effect, and most could not, while a few did. The attitudes of F and P (driven most likely by intellectual property concerns) alienated a lot of scientists. Subsequently there was the 1989 DOE review, and the later book by its chairman, Huizenga, calling CF a 'fiasco'. At that point most scientists believed the issue to be settled and went on their way. A die-hard band of people however continued on. You can tell this by comparing lists of authors from the various ICCFs, they tend to be all the same people, with no significant influx of new blood. The field has not gained any scientific recognition to speak of. The large majority of cscientists think it is dead, and are shocked to find out it isn't. There was the 2004 DOE review, but that occurred due to political pressure from CF supporters, not because DOE thought there was any merit to the claims. Paul Keller correctly notes that the CFers contiunously claim breakthroughs. The recent claims of heavy metal trransmutations and radiation detection by CR-39 plates are just the most recent mutations of these claims. Note that this demostrates Langmuir's pseudoscience characteristic of always coming up with more ad hoc explanations when faced with solid criticisms. I should note however, that my own work assumes there is a real effect at work in the production of apparent excess heat signals, and the CFers ARE observing unexpected elements on their cathodes, but the point is one does NOT need nuclear reactions to explain these observations.Kirk shanahan (talk) 17:11, 4 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Dr. Shanahan, do your concerns about calorometry apply to reports of experiments which do not involve electrolosys? 69.228.195.158 (talk) 18:20, 4 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

(edit conflict) I haven't heard any claims of "breakthroughs" but I've read a number of articles about improved reproducability. Didn't a famous scientist recently reproduce the phenomena in front of a live audience? [2] It seems, as Paul suggests above, that reproducability has been slowly improving over time, as new methods are tried. Though I dispute the notion that "The state of acceptance, or lack thereof, has remained unchanged for at least ten years." I would say, rather, that it hasn't changed a lot. It's still not mainstream and many universities in the U.S. will refuse to publish research quite irrespective of its relative scientific merit. However, as the field has matured, recognition has increased over the years, the recently reinvigorated interest in India [3] being a prime example. Kevin Baas^talk 18:01, 4 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Dr Shanahan's work validates an edit to the definition of cold fusion that I recently made in the main article. Cold fusion is a phenomena hypothesized to explain a group of experimental results, it is not the results themselves.Paul V. Keller (talk) 19:38, 4 December 2008 (UTC)[reply]