Current diets are detrimental to both human and planetary health and shifting towards more balanced, predominantly plant-based diets is seen as crucial to improving both. Low fruit and vegetable consumption is itself a major nutritional problem. We aim to better quantify the gap between future fruit and vegetable supply and recommended consumption levels by exploring the interactions between supply and demand in more than 150 countries from 1961 to 2050.

In this global analysis, we use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade, which simulates the global agricultural sector, to explore the role of insufficient production of fruits and vegetables and the effects of food waste and public policy in achieving recommended fruit and vegetable consumption. First, we estimate the average historical (1961–2010) and future (2010–50) national consumption …