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The 2024 United States presidential election in Vermont is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Vermont voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Vermont has 3 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
As a state in northern New England, Vermont was historically a moderate Republican stronghold, having backed the GOP in all but one presidential election between the party's formation and George H.W. Bush's narrow victory in 1988: Lyndon B. Johnson's 1964 landslide. However, an influx of more liberal voters combined with the national GOP's continued shift to the political right have turned Vermont into a Democratic stronghold at the presidential level since the early 1990s, as the state has been won by the Democratic candidate in every presidential election since 1992, all of these victories being by double digits apart from Al Gore's 9.9% win in 2000. Today a strongly blue state and one of the most progressive states in the U.S., Vermont is favored to remain comfortably in the Democratic column in 2024.[2]
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[3]
Primary elections[edit]
Republican primary[edit]
The Vermont Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Nikki Haley won the primary, becoming the first woman to win a state primary in a Republican presidential primary.[4]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Nikki Haley | 36,241 | 49.32% | 9 | 9 | |
| Donald Trump | 33,162 | 45.13% | 8 | 8 | |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 1,020 | 1.39% | |||
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 949 | 1.29% | |||
| Write-in votes | 586 | 0.80% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 546 | 0.74% | |||
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 278 | 0.38% | |||
| Overvotes | 51 | 0.07% | |||
| Blank ballots | 654 | 0.89% | |||
| Total: | 73,487 | 100.00% | 17 | 17 | |
| Source: [5] | |||||
Democratic primary[edit]
The Vermont Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Joe Biden won the primary.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 56,924 | 82.98% | 16 | ||
| Marianne Williamson | 2,873 | 4.19% | |||
| Dean Phillips | 1,942 | 2.83% | |||
| Other write-ins | 1,260 | 1.84% | |||
| Mark Greenstein | 779 | 1.14% | |||
| Rashida Tlaib (write-in) | 763 | 1.11% | |||
| Cenk Uygur | 700 | 1.02% | |||
| "Blank" (write-in) | 556 | 0.81% | |||
| Jason Palmer | 404 | 0.59% | |||
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (write-in) (Independent) | 322 | 0.47% | |||
| Bernie Sanders (write-in) (Independent) | 288 | 0.42% | |||
| Nikki Haley (write-in) (Republican) | 187 | 0.27% | |||
| Overvotes | 73 | 0.10% | |||
| Blank ballots | 1,525 | 2.22% | |||
| Total: | 68,599 | 100% | 16 | 8 | 24 |
| Source: [6][7] | |||||
General election[edit]
Predictions[edit]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[8] | Solid D | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Solid D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[11] | Solid D | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[12] | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[13] | Solid D | January 14, 2024 |
See also[edit]
- United States presidential elections in Vermont
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
References[edit]
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved April 1, 2024.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ Vakil, Caroline (March 6, 2024). "Haley defeats Trump in Vermont GOP primary". The Hill. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
- ^ "Official Report of the Canvassing Committee – United States and Vermont Statewide Offices" (PDF). Vermont Secretary of State. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
- ^ "OFFICIAL REPORT OF THE CANVASSING COMMITTEE UNITED STATES AND VERMONT STATEWIDE OFFICES" (PDF). Vermont Secretary of State. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
- ^ "Vermont Election Night Results". Vermont Secretary of State. Retrieved March 15, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
