THC Science

The 2024 United States presidential election in Massachusetts is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Massachusetts voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Massachusetts has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.^[1]

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.^[2]

Background[edit]

Since 2021, speculation had already begun brewing if President Joe Biden would seek a second term. Biden responded to this by announcing his intention to run in 2024.^[3] However, during a CBS 60 Minutes interview, Biden said that he was "not committed" to run.^[4] Massachusetts had been a Democratic leaning state since 1928, and a Democratic stronghold since 1960, and is still considered a deeply blue state today.^[a] Democrats have consistently defeated Republicans by large margins in Massachusetts since 1996. In 2020, Biden won the largest percent of the popular vote in the state since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.

Primary elections[edit]

Democratic primary[edit]

The Massachusetts Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Massachusetts Democratic primary, March 5, 2024
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	533,096	80.5%	91
No Preference	60,236	9.1%	1
Dean Phillips	29,728	4.5%
Marianne Williamson	20,402	3.1%
Other candidates	10,135	1.5%
Cenk Uygur (write-in)	82	<0.1%
Blank ballots	8,930	1.3%
Total:	662,609	100%	92		92
Source: ^[5]

Republican primary[edit]

The Massachusetts Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Massachusetts Republican primary, March 5, 2024
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	340,312	60.0%	40
Nikki Haley	209,113	36.9%
No Preference	5,611	1.0%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	5,125	0.9%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	3,986	0.7%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	1,714	0.3%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	611	0.1%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)	635	0.1%
Total:	567,107	100.0%	40	2,984	40
Source: ^[6]

Libertarian primary[edit]

The Massachusetts Libertarian primary was held on March 5, 2024.

Massachusetts Libertarian primary, March 5, 2024
Candidate	Votes	Percentage
No Preference	3,982	36.45%
Chase Oliver	1,453	13.30%
Jacob Hornberger	1,089	9.97%
Michael Rectenwald	546	5.00%
Lars Mapstead	399	3.65%
Mike ter Maat	314	2.87%
All Others	2,161	19.78%
Blank ballots	980	8.97%
Total:	10,924	100.00%
Source:^[7]

General election[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[8]	Solid D	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections^[9]	Solid D	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[10]	Solid D	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill^[11]	Solid D	December 14, 2023
CNalysis^[12]	Solid D	December 30, 2023
CNN^[13]	Solid D	January 14, 2024

Polling[edit]

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
Suffolk University^[A]	April 16–20, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	52%	22%	8%	18%
Suffolk University	February 2–5, 2024	1,000 (LV)	± 3.1%	45%	26%	9%	21%
YouGov^[B]	October 13–20, 2023	700 (V)	± 5.1%	43%	21%	17%	19%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
University of Massachusetts Lowell	October 18–25, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 4.1%	58%	32%	10%
Emerson College	September 7–8, 2022	708 (LV)	± 3.6%	54%	34%	12%
University of Massachusetts Lowell	June 7–15, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 4.0%	60%	31%	9%

Notes[edit]

^ Ronald Reagan won the state twice in 1980 and 1984, albeit very narrowly each time; his victories in Massachusetts were his smallest in the country.
^ ^a ^b Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

Partisan clients

^ Poll sponsored by The Boston Globe
^ Poll sponsored by the University of Massachusetts Amherst Department of Political Science & WCVB

References[edit]

^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
^ Chasmar, Jessica (June 13, 2022). "Biden 'running for re-election' in 2024, White House says". Foxnews.com. Retrieved June 25, 2022.
^ "President Biden says he hasn't decided on 2024 reelection run". CBS News. September 18, 2022. Retrieved November 18, 2022.
^ "2024 President Democratic Primary". State of Massachusetts. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
^ "Massachusetts Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
^ "2024 President Libertarian Primary". Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. The Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.

[5] Ronald Reagan won the state twice in 1980 and 1984, albeit very narrowly each time; his victories in Massachusetts were his smallest in the country.

[key-15] Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[16] Poll sponsored by The Boston Globe

[17] Poll sponsored by the University of Massachusetts Amherst Department of Political Science & WCVB

[1] Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.

[2] Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.

[3] Chasmar, Jessica (June 13, 2022). "Biden 'running for re-election' in 2024, White House says". Foxnews.com. Retrieved June 25, 2022.

[4] "President Biden says he hasn't decided on 2024 reelection run". CBS News. September 18, 2022. Retrieved November 18, 2022.

[6] "2024 President Democratic Primary". State of Massachusetts. Retrieved March 28, 2024.

[7] "Massachusetts Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved March 5, 2024.

[8] "2024 President Libertarian Primary". Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Retrieved March 12, 2024.

[9] "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. The Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[10] "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[11] "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[12] "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[13] "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[14] "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.

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Federal elections in Massachusetts
U.S. President	1788 1792 1796 1800 1804 1808 1812 1816 1820 1824 1828 1832 1836 1840 1844 1848 1852 1856 1860 1864 1868 1872 1876 1880 1884 1888 1892 1896 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
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U.S. Senate Class 2	s/1855 1859 1865 1871 s/1873 1877 1883 1889 1895 1901 1907 1913 1918 1924 1930 1936 1942 s/1944 1948 1954 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 s/2013 2014 2020
U.S. House	1788–89 1790–92 1792-93 1794–95 1796–97 1798–99 1800–01 1802–03 1804 1806 1808 1810–11 1812–13 1814–15 1816–17 1818–19 1820–21 1822–23 1824–25 1826–27 1828 1830–1970 1972 1974–2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
U.S. House Special Elections	1796–1797 s/1st s/10th s/11th 1800–1801 s/3rd s/4th s/10th s/4th s/12th s/14th 1804 s/12th 1807 s/12th 1808 s/2nd 1810–1811 s/10th s/11th s/4th 1812 s/17th 1814–1815 s/4th s/12th s/3rd 1816–1817 s/11th s/1st 1818 s/20th 1820 s/1st s/8th s/13th 1823 s/10th 1824 s/10th 1827 s/1st 1834–1991 listed here 2001 s/9th 2007 s/5th 2013 s/5th
"s/" = Special election See also: Political party strength in Massachusetts For statewide elections, see Template:State elections in Massachusetts footer.