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Revision as of 16:59, 12 February 2020

2019–20 South Pacific cyclone season
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formedNovember 22, 2019 (2019-11-22)
Last system dissipatedSeason ongoing
Strongest storm
NameTino, Uesi
 • Maximum winds120 km/h (75 mph)
(10-minute sustained)
 • Lowest pressure970 hPa (mbar)
Seasonal statistics
Total disturbances6
Total depressions4
Tropical cyclones4
Severe tropical cyclones3
Total fatalities2 total, 2 missing
Total damage$5.11 million (2019 USD)
Related articles
South Pacific tropical cyclone seasons
2017–18, 2018–19, 2019–20, 2020–21, 2021–22

The 2019–20 South Pacific cyclone season is the period of the year when most tropical cyclones form within the South Pacific Ocean to the east of 160°E. The season officially runs from November 1, 2019 to April 30, 2020, however a tropical cyclone could form at any time between July 1, 2019 and June 30, 2020 and would count towards the season total. During the season, tropical cyclones will be officially monitored by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) in Nadi, Fiji and the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centers in Brisbane, Australia and Wellington, New Zealand. The United States Armed Forces through the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) will also monitor the basin and issue unofficial warnings for American interests. RSMC Nadi attaches a number and an F suffix to tropical disturbances that form in or move into the basin while the JTWC designates significant tropical cyclones with a number and a P suffix. RSMC Nadi, TCWC Wellington and TCWC Brisbane all use the Australian Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale and estimate windspeeds over a period of ten minutes, while the JTWC estimated sustained winds over a 1-minute period, which are subsequently compared to the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS).

Seasonal forecasts

Source/Record Tropical
Cyclone
Severe
Tropical Cyclone
Ref
Record high: 1997–98: 16 1982–83: 10 [1]
Record low: 1990–91:  2 2008–09:  0 [1]
Average (1969-70 - 2018-19): 7.1  — [2]
NIWA October 9-12 4 [3]
Fiji Meteorological Service 5-8 2-4 [2]
Region Chance of
above average
Average
number
Actual
activity
Western South Pacific
(142.5°E—165°E; includes Australian basin)
54% 4 2
Eastern South Pacific
(165°E—120°W)
41% 7 3
Source:BOM's South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook[4]

Ahead of the cyclone season formally starting, the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS), Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), New Zealand's MetService and National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and various other Pacific Meteorological services, all contributed towards the Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook that was released during October 2019.[3] The outlook took into account the ENSO neutral conditions that had been observed across the Pacific and analog seasons, that had ENSO neutral and El Nino conditions occurring during the season.[3] The outlook called for a near-average number of tropical cyclones for the 2019–20 season, with nine to twelve named tropical cyclones, predicted to occur between 135°E and 120°W, compared to an average of just over 10.[3] At least four of the tropical cyclones were expected to intensify further and become severe tropical cyclones, while it was noted that a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone could occur during the season.[3]

In addition to contributing towards the Island Climate Update outlook, the FMS and the BoM issued their own seasonal forecasts for the South Pacific region.[2][4] The BoM issued two seasonal forecasts for the Southern Pacific Ocean, for their self-defined eastern and western regions of the South Pacific Ocean.[4] They predicted that the Western region between 142.5°E and 165°E, had a 54% chance of seeing activity above its average of 4 tropical cyclones. The BoM also predicted that the Eastern Region between 165°E and 120°W, had a 41% chance of seeing activity above its average of 7 tropical cyclones.[4] Within their outlook the FMS predicted that between five and eight tropical cyclones, would occur within the basin compared to an average of around 7.1 cyclones.[2] At least two of the tropical cyclones were expected to intensify further and become Category 3 or higher severe tropical cyclones.[2]

Both the Island Climate Update and the FMS tropical cyclone outlooks assessed the risk of a tropical cyclone affecting a certain island or territory.[2][3] The Island Climate Update Outlook predicted that American Samoa, French Polynesia's Austral Islands, Niue, Samoa, Tonga, Tuvalu as well as the Solomon Islands and Southern Cook Islands had an elevated chance, while the Wallis and Futuna had a normal to elevated chance of being impacted by a tropical cyclone.[3] They also predicted that Fiji, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Northern Cook Islands, Papua New Guinea and Tokelau, all had a near-normal risk of being impacted.[3] The outlook noted that Vanuatu and New Caledonia had a normal to reduced risk of being impacted by multiple tropical cyclones while French Polynesia's Austral Islands had a normal to reduced chance of being impacted. NIWA and partners also considered it unlikely that Pitcairn Islands, Kiribati and French Polynesia's Marquesas Islands and Tuamotu Archipelago would be impacted by a tropical cyclone.[3] The FMS's outlook predicted that the Samoan Islands, Tokelau and Tuvalu had an increased chance of being impacted by a tropical cyclone, while Fiji, the Solomon Islands, Wallis & Futuna, New Caledonia, Tonga, Niue, the southern Cook Islands and French Polynesia's Austral Islands all had a normal chance of being impacted by a tropical cyclone.[2] Their outlook also predicted that Vanuatu, the Northern Cook Islands, French Polynesia's Society Islands had a reduced chance of being affected by a tropical cyclone, while tropical cyclone activity near Kiribati and the Marquesas Islands was considered unlikely.[2] It was thought by the FMS that there was an increased risk of the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Wallis & Futuna, Tokelau, the Samoan Islands, Tonga and Niue being impacted by at least one severe tropical cyclone, while other areas such as the Cook Islands and parts of French Polynesia had a normal to reduced chance of being impacted by a severe tropical cyclone.[2]

Seasonal summary

Tropical cyclone scales#Comparisons across basins

The season began with the arrival of Tropical Depression 01F on November 22, near the Solomon Islands, which would later become Tropical Cyclone Rita. Rita would then peak as a Category 3 on the Australian scale. Tropical Disturbance 02F was designated sometime later, but didn't last long after that. Sarai formed on December 23, lasting into the new year before finally ceasing to exist on January 2. Not too long after that, Tino formed and affected eastern Fiji and the surrounding area before dissipating. On January 24, a depression formed and dissipated the next day without been named. In early February, another low originally in the Australian region crossed the 160th meridian east and emerged in the South Pacific. It strengthened into tropical cyclone Uesi.

Systems

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rita

Category 3 severe tropical cyclone (Australian scale)
Category 1 tropical cyclone (SSHWS)
 
DurationNovember 22 – November 26
Peak intensity120 km/h (75 mph) (10-min);
977 hPa (mbar)

Beginning November 21, the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) began highlighting the likelihood of a tropical cyclone forming between Vanuatu and Fiji.[5] Showers and thunderstorms began to aggregate in the region atop sea surface temperatures above 29 °C (84 °F) in low-wind shear conditions.[6] Imagery from microwave satellite data showed emergent rainbands wrapping towards an organising center of low pressure.[7] Late on November 22, the FMS designated the system, now east of the Solomon Islands, as Tropical Disturbance 01F.[8] The slow-moving disturbance tracked towards the south and southeast,[9] steered by a broad area of high pressure. On November 23, 01F attained tropical depression status.[10] Supported by the stout outflow of air at the upper-levels of the troposphere, shower activity became more concentrated around the center of circulation. The depression reached tropical cyclone intensity by 06:00 UTC on November 24 near the Santa Cruz Islands, earning the name Rita.[11][12][13] A well-defined and formative eye soon developed beneath the central cloud cover.[14] Continuing to intensify in favorable atmospheric conditions, Rita reached Category 2 cyclone strength by November 25 and Category 3 intensity six hours later.[15][16][17] The developing eye briefly emerged on infrared and visible satellite imagery as a ragged feature at the cyclone's center, surrounded by well-defined rainbands.[15][18]

Over the course of November 25, convective activity and organization slightly diminished due to an increase in wind shear,[19] and Rita ultimately peaked as a Category 3 tropical cyclone with 10-minute maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h (75 mph) as well as 1-minute sustained winds up to the same intensity. Additionally, Rita reached a minimum barometric pressure of 977 mbar (hPa; 28.85 inHg).[20][21] This made Rita one of the strongest first storms to form in the South Pacific since the formation of Mick in 2009, as many others were merely depressions or disurbances. It then began to track into an area unfavorable for intensification due to the presence of wind shear and cool dry air,[22] resulting in a rapid decay of the storm's convection and a decrease of the storm's maximum winds.[23][24] The FMS issued their last advisory on Rita on November 26 after the storm was downgraded to a remnant area of low pressure; at the time these remnants were slowly moving west-southwest towards northern Vanuatu.[25] In anticipation of heavy rainfall and strong winds from Rita, the National Disaster Management Office in Port Vila, Vanuatu, issued a Red Alert for Torba Province and a Yellow Alert for Penama Province and Sanma Province.[26][27] Warnings for strong winds were also issued for Shefa and Tafea provinces.[28]

Tropical Cyclone Sarai

Category 2 tropical cyclone (Australian scale)
Category 1 tropical cyclone (SSHWS)
 
DurationDecember 23 – January 2
Peak intensity110 km/h (70 mph) (10-min);
972 hPa (mbar)

During December 23, the FMS reported that Tropical Disturbance 03F had developed about 630 km (390 mi) to the west of Tuvalu.[29] At this time the system was poorly organised with deep atmospheric convection, displaced to the north and east of its broad and elongated low-level circulation.[29][30] The disturbance was also located underneath an upper ridge of high pressure within a favourable environment for further development, with low to moderate vertical windshear and warm sea surface temperatures of 29–30 °C (84–86 °F).[29][30] Over the next couple of days, the system moved southwards and gradually developed further with its overall organisation improving, before it was classified as a tropical depression by the FMS during December 25.[31][32] After being classified as a tropical depression, the system continued to develop, with its outflow improving and deep convection wrapping on to the systems low level circulation center.[33] During December 26, the JTWC initiated advisories on the depression and designated it as Tropical Cyclone 04P, before the FMS reported that the system had become a Category 1 tropical cyclone and named it Sarai.[34][35][36] At this time, Sarai was being steered southwards to the west of Fiji, along the edge of a near-equatorial ridge of high pressure and the jetstream.[34][36] Over the next couple of days, the system gradually intensified further and was classified as a Category 2 tropical cyclone during December 27, while it was located around 220 km (135 mi) to the west of Nadi, Fiji.[37][38] During December 28, as Sarai passed about 100 km (60 mi) to the south of Fiji's Kadavu Island, the FMS estimated that the system had peaked as a Category 2 tropical cyclone with 10-minute sustained winds of 110 km/h (70 mph).[38][39]

Due to an area of high pressure to its east, Sarai took a southerly course during its early stages as a named system.[40] The high pressure region would later shift its orientation, causing Sarai to gradually curve towards the east.[41] On December 27, the cyclone's winds increased further past Category 2 cyclone thresholds, with one-minute sustained winds to hurricane-force.[42] The following day, the FMS assessed a peak intensity with ten-minute sustained winds of 110 km/h (70 mph).[43] At the time, a large eye was evident on microwave satellite data while the storm tracked towards the southeast along the periphery of the jet stream, and remained present throughout the day.[44][45][46] Sarai reached its lowest barometric pressure on December 29 before weakening due to increasing wind shear of 55–65 km/h (34–40 mph), resulting in a loss of organisation.[47][48][49] Sarai's center of circulation became displaced from the storm's convection on December 30, and the storm weakened to Category 1 strength.[50] Its center tracked near Nukuʻalofa on December 31 while the storm's structure rapidly deteriorated, with the JTWC issuing their final advisory that day.[51] The FMS continued monitoring the system as an ex-cyclone as the storm accelerated eastward, highlighting a low possibility for regeneration;[52] the agency ultimately issued their final bulletin on the system on January 2.[53]

As the cyclone passed very close to the main Fijian island of Viti Levu on December 27 and brought very heavy rainfall, the FMS warned of the probability of damaging gale-force and storm-force winds and very heavy rainfall at times, with over 2,000 people being evacuated to higher grounds in case of flooding, while commercial flights and cruises in and out of the country were delayed or cancelled as a result of these conditions. Additionally, as of December 29, 2019, 2 deaths have been confirmed related to the cyclone due to drowning in floodwaters.[54][55] Damage to road infrastructure reached FJ$5 million (US$2.3 million).[56]

Severe Tropical Cyclone Tino

Category 3 severe tropical cyclone (Australian scale)
Category 1 tropical cyclone (SSHWS)
 
DurationJanuary 11 – January 20
Peak intensity120 km/h (75 mph) (10-min);
970 hPa (mbar)

On January 10, an area of low pressure formed just east of the Solomon Islands and was forecast by the FMS to track towards the southeast, exhibiting some potential to develop further into a tropical cyclone.[57][58] The FMS designated the slow-moving complex of deep convection as Tropical Disturbance 04F on January 11; at the time, the disturbance was located within a moderate wind shear environment near Makira atop 31 °C (88 °F) ocean waters.[59] Deep convection continued to accompany the developing wind circulation over the following days as conditions grew more favourable, though the wind field remained broad and disorganised.[60][61] The FMS began issuing advisories on 04F on January 14 following improvements in the disturbance's organisation.[62] A subtropical ridge to the northeast caused 04F to track towards the east and southeast.[63] Throughout the early part of the storm's development, a strong band of convection persisted north of the centre of circulation. Following a decrease in wind shear, the FMS upgraded 04F to a tropical depression on January 15 as it began to organize.[64] Further intensification occurred as additional convection wrapped around the storm's centre on January 16, prompting the FMS to upgrade the system to a Category 1 tropical cyclone, giving the storm the name Tino.[65][66] The next day, the storm passed near Vanua Levu and strengthened further into a Category 2 cyclone as an emerged;[67][68] Category 3 intensity was reached later that day with 10-minute sustained winds estimated at 120 km/h (75 mph).[69] However, Tino soon began to entrain dry air, resulting in a gradual decay of its convection and subsequent weakening on January 18 as the center tracked across Ha'apai.[70][71] Interaction with a baroclinic zone the next day signaled the onset of extratropical transition;[72] Tino fully completed this processes later on January 19.[73]

Warnings for heavy rain were issued for all of the Solomon Islands and four Vanuatuan provinces by their respective National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.[74] Similarly, a Heavy Rain Alert was issued by the FMS on January 14 for western parts of Fiji.[75] A Tropical Cyclone Warning was subsequently issued for Rotuma on January 15, and a Tropical Cyclone Alert for the rest of the Fijian islands.[76] Fijians were advised by the Water Authority of Fiji to boil and store drinking water in anticipation of the approaching tropical cyclone.[77] Cruises in the area began to be cancelled on January 14.[78] Evacuation centres were opened on January 16 in Fiji's Northern Division, as well as the division's Emergency Operations Centre.[79][80] Villagers in the Udu Point region of Vanua Levu were urged to move inland due to rough forecast seas.[81] The Labasa campus of the Fiji National University closed on January 17.[82]

As Tino passed close to Vanua Levu, the second cyclone to pass near the nation within three weeks following Sarai, Fijian government officals called for urgent action on the 'climate crisis' in the South Pacific region.[83] Additionally, a father and daughter were left missing after being swept away from floodwaters due to heavy rainfall generated by the system in Eastern Fiji. [84]

Tropical Disturbance 05F

Tropical disturbance (Australian scale)
Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationJanuary 24 – January 26
Peak intensityWinds not specified;
1003 hPa (mbar)

During January 24, the FMS reported that Tropical Disturbance 05F had developed about 75 km (45 mi) to the northwest of Pago-Pago in American Samoa.[85][86] At this time, the disturbance was poorly organised with atmospheric convection located to the north of its low-level circulation center.[85] During that day, the disturbance moved south-eastwards within an environment favourable for further development, with low vertical windshear, warm sea surface temperatures, while its outflow was enhanced by strong westerlies.[85][87] As a result, atmospheric convection started to wrap into the system's consolidating low-level circulation center, which prompted the JTWC to issue a tropical cyclone formation alert on the disturbance.[87] During the next day, the JTWC intiated advisories on the disturbance and designated it as Tropical Cyclone 12P, as the system peaked with 1-minute sustained windspeeds of 65 km/h (40 mph).[88][89] The system subsequently moved south-eastwards into an area of moderate vertical wind shear, while atmospheric convection became sheared and located to the northeast of the disturbance's exposed low-level circulation centre.[90][91] As a result, the FMS issued their final warning on the disturbance, as it was expected to move further south into an area of high vertical wind shear.[90] During January 26, the JTWC subsquently issued their final warning on the system after it had dissipated.[92]

Severe Tropical Cyclone Uesi

Category 3 severe tropical cyclone (Australian scale)
Category 1 tropical cyclone (SSHWS)
 
DurationFebruary 5 – Present
Peak intensity120 km/h (75 mph) (10-min);
970 hPa (mbar)

During February 5, the FMS reported that Tropical Disturbance 06F had developed, about 775 km (480 mi) to the northwest of Port Villa in Vanuatu.[93] At this time the system was poorly organised with deep atmospheric convection displaced, to the northeast of the system's weak and ill-defined low level circulation center.[93][94] The disturbance was also located to the north of a subtropical ridge of high pressure, within a favourable environment for further development, with a low to moderate amount of vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures of 29–30 °C (84–86 °F).[93][94] A tropical cyclone formation alert was subsequently issued by the JTWC early on February 8, as convection improved near the centre of the storm; at the time, 06F was centered 653 km (406 mi) northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu.[95] Routine advisories were initiated by the FMS the same day while 06F drifted towards the south-southwest. Convection continued to evolve at the disturbance's centre into organised banding.[96] On February 9, the JTWC upgraded the system to a tropical storm, designating it Tropical Cyclone 15P. Later that day, the FMS named the storm Uesi, and upgraded it to a category 2 tropical cyclone.[97] The next day the JTWC upgraded the storm to a hurricane. Soon after, the FMS upgraded it to a Category 3 tropical cyclone.

After passing near to New Caledonia on February 11, Uesi adopted a steady south-southwestwards track towards the Australian cyclone region. An increase in vertical wind shear from the northwest on February 12 caused the convective structure of the cyclone to weaken, and resulted in the low-level circulation centre becoming exposed from the central dense overcast. At 12:00 UTC, the FMS passed responsibility for Uesi over to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), who indicated that the system had weakened to a high-end Category 2 tropical cyclone.[98]

Warnings were issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geohazards Department for Uesi, noting the possibility of stream and coastal flooding.[99] Météo France (MFR) issued thunderstorm and rain warnings for four municipalities in New Caledonia on February 9,[100] and later raised warnings to an orange alert for six the following day.[101] Ferry and bus services in several New Caledonian communes were suspended.[102][103] Flights serviced by Air Calédonie were also delayed.[104] The first accommodation centers in the French territory were opened on February 10.[105] Uesi passed between 100–150 km (62–93 mi) west of Belep, New Caledonia, on February 11, bringing heavy rains and strong winds. MFR stations recorded up to 300 mm (12 in) of rainfall in Poum over a 48-hour period;[106] this was roughly equal to two months of average rainfall.[107] Flooding from Uesi's rainfall blocked travel between Poum and Koumac,[108] as well as other bridges throughout the territory.[109] Gusts of up to 120 km/h (75 mph) impacted New Caledonia's central mountain range.[110] Overall, power outages afflicted at least 3,900 households serviced by EEC and Enercal.[111] At least 565 homes lost power in Hienghène and Ponérihouen.[109] All warnings for New Caledonia were lifted by the morning of February 12.[111] Rough surf generated by Uesi forced the closure of beaches in Gold Coast, Queensland beginning that day.[112]

Other systems

During December 19, the FMS reported that Tropical Disturbance 02F had developed about 55 km (35 mi) to the northeast of Tau in American Samoa's Manu‘a Group.[113] At this time, the system was poorly organised with atmospheric convection located to the east of the storms low level circulation center.[113][114] Over the next few days, the system moved south-westwards within an area that was marginally favourable for further development, with good poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures offset by low to moderate vertical wind shear.[114][115] However, it failed to develop any further and was last noted by the FMS during December 23, after it had lost its tropical characteristics and dissipated.[29][116]

Storm names

Within the Southern Pacific a tropical depression is judged to have reached tropical cyclone intensity should it reach winds of 65 km/h, (40 mph) and it is evident that gales are occurring at least halfway around the center. Tropical depressions that intensify into a tropical cyclone between the Equator and 25°S and between 160°E and 120°W are named by the FMS. However, should a tropical depression intensify to the south of 25°S between 160°E and 120°W it will be named by MetService in conjunction with the FMS. If a tropical cyclone move out of the basin and into the Australian region, it will retain its original name. The next 10 names on the naming list are listed here below.[117]

  • Rita
  • Sarai
  • Tino
  • Uesi (active)
  • Vicky (unused)
  • Wasi (unused)
  • Yolanda (unused)
  • Zazu (unused)
  • Ana (unused)
  • Bina (unused)

Season effects

This table lists all the storms that developed in the South Pacific to the east of longitude 160°E during the 2019–20 season. It includes their intensity on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale, duration, name, landfalls, deaths, and damages.

Name Dates Peak intensity Areas affected Damage
(USD)
Deaths Refs
Category Wind speed Pressure
Rita November 22 – 26 Category 3 severe tropical cyclone 120 km/h (75 mph) 977 hPa (28.85 inHg) Solomon Islands, Vanuatu None None
02F December 19 – 23 Tropical disturbance Not specified 999 hPa (29.50 inHg) None None None
Sarai December 23 – January 2 Category 2 tropical cyclone 110 km/h (70 mph) 972 hPa (28.70 inHg) Fiji, Tonga, Niue, Southern Cook Islands $2.3 million 2
Tino January 11 – 20 Category 3 severe tropical cyclone 120 km/h (75 mph) 970 hPa (28.64 inHg) Fiji, Niue, Solomon Islands
Samoan Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu
$2.81 million 2 (missing)
05F January 24 – 25 Tropical disturbance Not specified 1003 hPa (29.62 inHg) Samoan Islands None None
Uesi February 4 – Present Category 3 severe tropical cyclone 120 km/h (75 mph) 970 hPa (28.64 inHg) Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia None None
Season aggregates
6 systems November 22 –
Season ongoing
120 km/h (75 mph) 970 hPa (28.64 inHg) $2.3 million 2

See also

Footnotes

References

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  34. ^ a b Tropical Cyclone Cyclone 04P Warning 2 December 26, 2019 15z (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 26, 2019.
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