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| Elections in Colorado |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Colorado is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Colorado voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Colorado has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.[1]
No Republican has won Colorado by double digits at the presidential level since Ronald Reagan in his 1984 landslide re-election victory. Colorado was later consistently competitive at this level from the late 1980s going through the 2010s, except in 2020, when Democrat Joe Biden carried the state and became the first presidential candidate to win Colorado by a double-digit margin since Reagan. The last Republican to win the Centennial State’s electoral votes was George W. Bush in his 2004 re-election victory. Today, Colorado is a slightly to moderately blue state with Democrats winning the state in every presidential election starting in 2008 and occupying every statewide office since 2023. However, Colorado is still considered to be a secondary battleground state and is likely to be targeted by both main parties in 2024 given its competitive recent history as well as its relative closeness in 2016.
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for re-election to a second term.[2] On December 19, 2023, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled that Trump is disqualified from the Presidency under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment and ordered that Trump be removed from the 2024 Colorado Republican presidential primary ballot.[3][4] Trump appealed this ruling to the Supreme Court of the United States, and arguments were heard in February.[5] The Colorado decision was stayed pending appeal, and Trump was included on the certified ballot, which began to be mailed to overseas voters on January 20.[6] On March 4, 2024, the Supreme Court issued a ruling unanimously reversing the Colorado Supreme Court decision, ruling that states had no authority to remove Trump from their ballots, and this was instead a power held by Congress.[7]
Primary elections[edit]
Democratic primary[edit]
The Colorado Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 477,365 | 82.5% | 72 | 72 | |
| Noncommitted Delegate | 52,122 | 9.0% | |||
| Dean Phillips | 17,936 | 3.1% | |||
| Marianne Williamson | 16,761 | 2.9% | |||
| Gabriel Cornejo | 4,313 | 0.7% | |||
| Jason Palmer | 3,986 | 0.7% | |||
| Armando Perez-Serrato | 2,591 | 0.5% | |||
| Frankie Lozada | 2,402 | 0.4% | |||
| Stephen Lyons | 1,481 | 0.3% | |||
| Total: | 578,957 | 100% | 72 | 72 | |
| Source: [8] | |||||
Republican primary[edit]
The Colorado Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 555,863 | 63.5% | 24 | ||
| Nikki Haley | 291,615 | 33.3% | 12 | ||
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 12,672 | 1.4% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 7,188 | 0.8% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 5,113 | 0.6% | |||
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 2,220 | 0.3% | |||
| Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 1,269 | 0.1% | |||
| Total: | 875,940 | 100.0% | 36 | 1 | 37 |
| Source: [9][10] | |||||
General election[edit]
14th Amendment lawsuit[edit]
The Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, a left-leaning non-profit, filed a lawsuit on behalf of four Republicans and independent voters, saying that Donald Trump is ineligible to run for president because of a section in the 14th Amendment that states "no person shall ... hold any office, civil or military, under the United States ... who, having previously taken an oath .... as an officer of the United States ... shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof". A trial on this case took place during October and November 2023.[11][12] The judge found that Trump engaged in insurrection but declined to remove Trump from the primary ballot, saying there is "scant direct evidence regarding whether the Presidency is one of the positions subject to disqualification".[13][14] On December 19, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled that Trump is disqualified from the primary ballot.[15] On March 4, 2024, the Supreme Court of The United States ruled unanimously to reinstall Trump to the ballot, ruling it unconstitutional for states to restrict voters from voting for certain candidates and that Congress would have to determine Trump’s eligibility.[citation needed]
Predictions[edit]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[16] | Solid D | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[17] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[18] | Solid D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[19] | Likely D | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[20] | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[21] | Lean D | January 14, 2024 |
Polling[edit]
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Bridge Strategy (R)/Aspect Strategic (D)[A] | March 15–19, 2024 | 632 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
| Florida Atlantic University | February 29 – March 3, 2024 | 170 (LV) | – | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| 179 (RV) | – | 48% | 43% | 9% | ||
| Emerson College | January 23–28, 2024 | 1,856 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 41% | 35% | 24% |
| Global Strategy Group (D)[B] | January 22–28, 2024 | 801 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
| YouGov/University of Colorado Boulder | December 1–18, 2023 | 800 (A) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 40% | 13% |
| Cygnal (R)/Aspect Strategies (D)[C] | November 26–27, 2023 | 652 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 36% | 19% |
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 477 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 38% | 20% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | May 7–9, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 49% | 39% | 12% |
| Emerson College | October 26–29, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 39% | 14% |
| Emerson College | September 18–19, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 36% | 18% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) | July 24–26, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 43% | 6% |
| Blueprint Polling (D) | April 6–8, 2022 | 612 (V) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
- Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | May 7–9, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 44% | 41% | 15% |
- Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blueprint Polling (D) | April 6–8, 2022 | 612 (V) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 42% | 16% |
See also[edit]
- United States presidential elections in Colorado
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes[edit]
References[edit]
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ Cohen, Marshall (December 19, 2023). "Colorado Supreme Court removes Trump from 2024 ballot based on 14th Amendment's 'insurrectionist ban'". CNN. Retrieved December 19, 2023.
- ^ Grumbach, Gary; Gregorian, Dareh (December 19, 2023). "Colorado Supreme Court kicks Trump off the state's 2024 ballot for violating the U.S. Constitution". NBC News. Retrieved December 19, 2023.
- ^ Liptak, Adam (January 18, 2024). "Trump Asks Supreme Court to Rule He Is Eligible to Hold Office". The New York Times.
- ^ "Despite US Supreme Court appeal, Trump certified as candidate on Colorado GOP ballot". ABC News. Retrieved January 19, 2024.
- ^ "Donald Trump: US Supreme Court rules that states cannot kick him off the presidential ballot". Sky News. Retrieved March 4, 2024.
- ^ "Colorado Presidential Primary". Associated Press. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Primary Presidential Election - Unofficial Results". Colorado Secretary of State Election Results. March 13, 2024. Archived from the original on March 13, 2024. Retrieved March 13, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Delegate Count - Republican". AP News. March 13, 2024. Retrieved March 13, 2024.
- ^ See Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution
- ^ Durkee, Alison. "Trump Faces First Hearing Over Whether He Can Run For President Today—What To Watch For In 14th Amendment Case". Forbes. Retrieved October 31, 2023.
- ^ Cohen, Marshall (November 18, 2023). "Colorado judge keeps Trump on 2024 primary ballot as latest 14th Amendment case falters | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved November 18, 2023.
- ^ "Colorado judge rules Trump 'engaged in an insurrection' — but can still run for president". Politico. November 17, 2023. Retrieved November 18, 2023.
- ^ Astor, Maggie (December 19, 2023). "Trump Is Disqualified From the 2024 Ballot, Colorado Supreme Court Rules". The New York Times. Retrieved December 19, 2023.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
