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| Elections in Florida |
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Florida will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Florida. Incumbent one-term Republican Senator Rick Scott was elected with 50.05% of the vote in 2018. He is running for re-election to a second term in office. Primary elections will take place on August 20, 2024.[1]
Background[edit]
Long one of the core swing states, Florida has trended towards Republicans in recent years and is now considered to be a moderately red state at the federal level, with Donald Trump carrying Florida by about three and a half percentage points in the 2020 presidential election.[2]
As a result of that trend, Republicans have seen much more success in the state in recent years. That was most prevalent when the Florida GOP saw landslide victories in the 2022 gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections. As of 2024, Republicans control both of Florida's U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, supermajorities in both houses of the Florida Legislature, and a large majority in its U.S. House congressional delegation.[3]
Scott was first elected in 2018 by 0.1 points, defeating then-incumbent Bill Nelson.[4] With the benefit of incumbency and the state's rightward trend, most political pundits consider the race to be favoring Scott.
Republican primary[edit]
Candidates[edit]
Declared[edit]
- Keith Gross, assistant state attorney for Florida's 18th circuit court[5]
- Patricia Krentcil, reality TV star known as "Tan Mom"[6]
- Rick Scott, incumbent U.S. senator (2019–present)[7]
Filed paperwork[edit]
- Angela Windhauser[8]
Declined[edit]
- Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida (2019–present) and former U.S. Representative from Florida's 6th congressional district (2013–2018) (ran for president)[9]
- Byron Donalds, U.S. representative from Florida's 19th congressional district (2021–present)[10] (running for re-election)[11]
- Matt Gaetz, U.S. representative from Florida's 1st congressional district (2017–present) (running for re-election)[12]
Endorsements[edit]
Rick Scott
- U.S. executive branch officials
- Mike Pompeo, U.S. Secretary of State (2018–2021), Director of the CIA (2017–2018), and U.S. representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district (2011–2017)[13]
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[14]
- John Bolton, United States National Security Advisor (2018–2019), United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2005–2006)[15]
- U.S. senators
- Norm Coleman, former U.S. senator from Minnesota (2003–2009)[16]
- Marco Rubio, U.S. senator from Florida (2011–present)[17]
- U.S. representatives
- 19 Republican U.S. representatives from Florida[17]
- Statewide officials
- Pam Bondi, former Florida Attorney General (2011–2019)[18]
- Ashley Moody, Florida Attorney General (2019–present)[18]
- Wilton Simpson, Florida Commissioner of Agriculture (2023–present)[19]
- State legislators
- 80 state legislators[20]
- Local officials
- Organizations
Fundraising[edit]
| Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Keith Gross (R) | $1,383,843[a] | $1,319,973 | $63,869 |
| Rick Scott (R) | $18,763,597[b] | $17,052,569 | $3,171,632 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[29] | |||
Democratic primary[edit]
Candidates[edit]
Declared[edit]
- Matt Boswell, progressive activist[30]
- Stanley Campbell, corporate executive, U.S. Army veteran, and brother of rapper Uncle Luke[31]
- Alan Grayson, former U.S. representative from Florida's 9th congressional district (2009–2011, 2013–2017), candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2022, candidate for Florida's 9th congressional district in 2018, write-in candidate for Florida's 6th congressional district in 2020, and candidate for Florida's 10th congressional district in 2022[32]
- Rod Joseph, consultant and Purple Heart recipient[30]
- Bernard Korn, realtor and perennial candidate[30]
- Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, former U.S. representative from Florida's 26th congressional district (2019–2021)[33]
- Brian Rush, former state representative (1987–1995) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[34]
- Matthew Sanscrainte, hospitality management consultant[30]
Filed paperwork[edit]
Withdrew[edit]
- Phil Ehr, nonprofit executive, U.S. Navy veteran, nominee for Florida's 1st congressional district in 2020 and candidate in 2018 (running for U.S. House, endorsed Mucarsel-Powell)[37]
Declined[edit]
- Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, U.S. representative from Florida's 20th congressional district (2022–present)[38] (running for re-election)[11]
- Fentrice Driskell, Minority Leader of the Florida House of Representatives (2022–present) from the 67th district (2018–present)[39]
- Anna Eskamani, state representative (2018–present)[40] (running for re-election)[41]
- Lois Frankel, U.S. representative from Florida's 22nd congressional district (2013–present)[40] (running for re-election, endorsed Mucarsel-Powell)[11][42]
- Shevrin Jones, state senator from the 35th district (2021–present)[43] (endorsed Mucarsel-Powel)[44]
- Frederica Wilson, U.S. representative from Florida's 24th congressional district (2011–present)[38]
- Debbie Wasserman Schultz, U.S. representative from Florida's 25th congressional district (2004–present)[38] (endorsed Mucarsel-Powell)[42]
Endorsements[edit]
Stanley Campbell
- State legislators
- Local officials
- Wayne Messam, mayor of Miramar (2015–present)[45]
- Hazelle Rogers, Broward County commissioner and former state representative (2012–2016)[45]
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
- Federal officials
- Joe Biden, 46th President of the United States (2021–present)[46]
- U.S. representatives
- Kathy Castor, U.S. representative from Florida's 14th congressional district (2007–present)[42]
- Val Demings, U.S. representative from Florida's 10th congressional district (2017–2023)[47]
- Lois Frankel, U.S. representative from Florida's 22nd congressional district (2013–present)[42]
- Maxwell Frost, U.S. representative from Florida's 10th congressional district (2023–present)[42]
- Gabby Giffords, U.S. representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2007–2012)[48]
- Debbie Wasserman Schultz, U.S. representative from Florida's 25th congressional district (2004–present)[42]
- State legislators
- Organizations
- Brady PAC[51]
- CHC BOLD PAC[52]
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee[53]
- EMILY's List[54]
- End Citizens United[55]
- Feminist Majority PAC[56]
- Giffords[48]
- Human Rights Campaign[57]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[58]
- Latino Victory Fund[59]
- League of Conservation Voters[60]
- Let America Vote[55]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare PAC[61]
- Peace Action[62]
- PODER PAC[63]
- Reproductive Freedom for All[64]
- Vote Mama[65]
Fundraising[edit]
| Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Stanley Campbell (D) | $1,021,873[c] | $108,249 | $913,623 |
| Rod Joseph (D) | $15,428 | $12,392 | $3,036 |
| Alan Grayson (D) | $303,324 | $266,349 | $41,012 |
| Donald Horan (D)[d] | $73,455 | $73,455 | $0 |
| Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) | $3,768,972 | $2,224,782 | $1,544,190 |
| Evertt Stern (D)[d] | $325 | $325 | $0 |
| Brian Rush (D) | $71,875[e] | $39,135 | $32,739 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[29] | |||
Independents and third-party candidates[edit]
Candidates[edit]
Filed paperwork[edit]
- James Davis (write-in), code enforcement officer and U.S. Marine Corps veteran[66]
- Salomon Hernandez Sr.[67]
- Randy Toler (Green Party), co-chair of the Florida Green Party and perennial candidate[68] (also running for president)
- Alix Christopher Toulme (Moderate Party)[69]
General election[edit]
Predictions[edit]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[70] | Likely R | November 9, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[71] | Solid R | November 9, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[72] | Likely R | November 9, 2023 |
| Elections Daily[73] | Likely R | May 4, 2023 |
| CNalysis[74] | Very Likely R | November 21, 2023 |
Polling[edit]
Rick Scott vs. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
Rick Scott (R) |
Debbie Mucarsel- Powell (D) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research | April 15–17, 2024 | 865 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 52% | 35% | 14%[g] |
| 815 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 53% | 36% | 12%[h] | ||
| USA Today/Ipsos | April 5–7, 2024 | 1,014 (A) | ± 4.1% | 36% | 26% | 38%[i] |
| Emerson College | April 3–7, 2024 | 608 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 38% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[A] | February 29 – March 1, 2024 | 790 (V) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 41% | – |
| Global Strategy Group (D)[B] | July 5–10, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 44% | 13% |
Hypothetical polling
Rick Scott vs. Phil Ehr
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
Rick Scott (R) |
Phil Ehr (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)[C] | June 27–29, 2023 | 1,298 (LV) | ? | 45% | 41% | 14%[j] |
Notes[edit]
- ^ $1,205,131 of this total was self-funded by Gross
- ^ $6,987,723 of this total was self-funded by Scott
- ^ $1,000,000 of this total was self-funded by Campbell
- ^ a b Withdrawn candidate
- ^ $10,000 of this total was self-funded by Rush
- ^ a b Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Some other candidate" with 5%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 4%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 5%
- ^ Includes "would not vote" with 3%
- Partisan clients
- ^ The poll was commissioned by EMILY's List, which supports Mucarsel-Powell
- ^ This poll was commissioned by the DSCC
- ^ Poll commissioned for Phil Ehr
References[edit]
- ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
- ^ "Florida 2020 presidential election results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved April 16, 2023.
- ^ Fineout, Gary (November 9, 2022). "Florida Republicans get a 'win for the ages'". POLITICO. Retrieved April 16, 2023.
- ^ "Florida | Full Senate results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved April 16, 2023.
- ^ Ogles, Jacob (April 11, 2023). "Keith Gross launches GOP Primary challenge to Rick Scott". Florida Politics.
- ^ "'Tan Mom' Patricia Krentcil Running for U.S. Senate". TMZ. August 15, 2023. Retrieved August 16, 2023.
- ^ Caputo, Marc (January 26, 2023). "Sen. Rick Scott is running for re-election pushing his controversial 'Rescue' plan". NBC News. Retrieved January 26, 2023.
- ^ "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1727167". docquery.fec.gov. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
- ^ Dorn, Sara (August 28, 2023). "DeSantis Team Denies Trump's Rumor He'll Drop Out Of Presidential Race To Run For Senate". Forbes. Retrieved September 2, 2023.
- ^ Greenwood, Max (December 14, 2022). "Rick Scott faces uncertain future after bruising midterm year".
One GOP operative suggested Rep. Byron Donalds, a first-term congressman from southwest Florida, as a possible rival [to Scott].
- ^ a b c Frisk, Garrett (July 21, 2023). "We Asked Every Member of the House if They're Running in 2024. Here's What They Said". Diamond Eye Candidate Report. Retrieved July 21, 2023.
- ^ "Sixty Days for 3.14.23 — A prime-time look at the 2023 Legislative Regular Session".
U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz, declining to challenge U.S. Rick Scott in 2024.
- ^ Daugherty, Eric (October 13, 2023). "Rick Scott endorsed by Mike Pompeo for reelection". Florida's Voice. Archived from the original on October 13, 2023. Retrieved October 13, 2023.
- ^ Gancarski, A.G. (December 5, 2023). "Donald Trump endorses Rick Scott for re-election". Florida Politics. Retrieved December 6, 2023.
- ^ {{cite web |https://www.boltonpac.com/our-candidates/
- ^ a b "RJC PAC Endorses Champions of the Jewish Community, Senators Ted Cruz and Rick Scott, for Re-Election". Republican Jewish Coalition. July 12, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
- ^ a b Ogles, Jacob (March 6, 2024). "Republicans in Florida congressional delegation back Rick Scott for re-election". Florida Politics. Retrieved March 9, 2024.
- ^ a b c Scheckner, Jesse (April 8, 2024). "'A stalwart defender of law enforcement': Rick Scott nabs endorsements from Ashley Moody, Pam Bondi, 11 State Attorneys". Florida Politics.
- ^ DeLisa, Caden (February 26, 2024). "Wilton Simpson endorses Rick Scott for reelection". The Capitolist. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
- ^ Ogles, Jacob (January 30, 2024). "In effort to stamp out Primary challenge, Rick Scott nabs support from 80 Florida lawmakers". Florida Politics.
- ^ Wilson, Drew (July 24, 2023). "Rick Scott earns endorsements from 59 Florida Sheriffs for 2024 re-election bid". Florida Politics.
- ^ Ogles, Jacob (June 26, 2023). "Senior citizen group endorses Rick Scott's re-election". Florida Politics.
- ^ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
- ^ Ogles, Jacob (September 15, 2023). "Florida builders, contractors endorse Rick Scott's re-election bid". Florida Politics.
- ^ "Club for Growth endorses Scott and dings McConnell".
- ^ McCool, Jim (January 20, 2024). "Florida Realtors Endorse Rick Scott's 2024 Campaign". The Floridian Press. Retrieved January 21, 2024.
- ^ Cooper, Amber (September 18, 2023). "Florida Police Chiefs Association endorses Rick Scott's 2024 reelection bid". Florida's Voice. Retrieved September 19, 2023.
- ^ "Senate Conservatives Fund". www.senateconservatives.com. Retrieved September 2, 2023.
- ^ a b "2024 Election United States Senate - Florida". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved October 16, 2023.
- ^ a b c d Derby, Kevin (February 23, 2023). "Rick Scott Plans to Hit Every County in Florida During Reelection Campaign". Florida Daily. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
- ^ Fontenay, Blake (November 10, 2023). "Brother of 2 Live Crew rapper Luther Campbell challenges Rick Scott for U.S. Senate seat". Treasure Coast Newspapers. Retrieved November 13, 2023.
- ^ Roarty, Alex (April 11, 2024). "Did You Know Alan Grayson Is Running for Senate? Few Do". NOTUS. Retrieved April 11, 2024.
- ^ "Former US Rep. Debbie Murcasel-Powell to challenge Rick Scott for Senate seat - CBS Miami". www.cbsnews.com. August 22, 2023. Retrieved August 22, 2023.
- ^ Perry, Mitch (November 20, 2023). "New group of Dem state lawmakers announce support for Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for U.S. Senate". Florida Phoenix. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
- ^ "Josue Larose FEC Statement of Candidacy". September 19, 2022. Retrieved December 11, 2022.
- ^ "ROMAGNANO, CHASE ANDERSON MR. - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 31, 2023.
- ^ Fineout, Gary (October 18, 2023). "Challenger to Rick Scott drops out of Florida Senate race". POLITICO. Retrieved October 18, 2023.
- ^ a b c "Can Florida Democrats Find Anyone (at All) to Run for Senate?". March 27, 2023.
- ^ Dixon, Matt (August 21, 2023). "Top Florida Democrat passes on challenging Sen. Rick Scott in 2024". NBC News.
Florida House Minority Leader Fentrice Driskell is not running against Republican Sen. Rick Scott, a move she says is due to unfinished business in the state legislature.
- ^ a b Covey, Erin (April 4, 2023). "Florida Senate: A Cloudy Forecast for Democrats". Retrieved April 4, 2023.
- ^ Ogles, Jacob (September 6, 2023). "Anna Eskamani kicks off re-election campaign". Florida Politics. Retrieved September 6, 2023.
- ^ a b c d e f Ogles, Jacob (September 21, 2023). "4 Florida members of Congress endorse Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for Senate". Florida Politics. Retrieved September 21, 2023.
- ^ Dixon, Matt; Allen, Jonathan (May 8, 2023). "Democratic donors hope to recruit NBA legends Grant Hill and Dwyane Wade to run for Senate in Florida". NBC News. Retrieved May 8, 2023.
- ^ a b c Ogles, Jacob (October 19, 2023). "10 sitting, former state lawmakers back Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for Senate". Florida Politics. Retrieved January 21, 2024.
- ^ a b c Gancarski, A.G. (April 13, 2024). "Stanley Campbell trumpets endorsements for underdog Senate campaign". Florida Politics. Retrieved April 14, 2024.
- ^ Ogles, Jacob (April 23, 2024). "Joe Biden backs Debbie Mucarsel-Powell during Tampa visit". Florida Politics.
- ^ Ogles, Jacob (January 13, 2024). "Val Demings backs Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for Senate". Florida Politics. Retrieved January 15, 2024.
- ^ a b "GIFFORDS Endorses Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for US Senate". Giffords. August 23, 2023. Retrieved August 23, 2023.
- ^ a b Scheckner, Jesse (November 20, 2023). "Debbie Mucarsel-Powell adds 13 state lawmaker endorsements to U.S. Senate campaign". Florida Politics. Retrieved February 17, 2024.
- ^ Scheckner, Jesse (February 16, 2024). "6 state lawmakers back Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for U.S. Senate". Florida Politics. Retrieved February 17, 2024.
- ^ "Brady PAC Endorses Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for U.S. Senate". Brady PAC. November 14, 2023. Archived from the original on November 15, 2023. Retrieved November 15, 2023.
- ^ "CHC BOLD PAC Endorses Endorses Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in the Florida U.S. Senate Race". BOLD PAC. August 28, 2023. Retrieved August 29, 2023.
- ^ "Elect Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and expand our Democratic Senate majority!". ActBlue. August 22, 2023. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
- ^ Wang, Danni (May 11, 2023). "EMILYs List Endorses Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for Election to the United States Senate". EMILYs List. Retrieved September 7, 2023.
- ^ a b "End Citizens United // Let America Votes Endorses Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for U.S. Senate". End Citizens United | We the People, Not "We the Wealthy". January 18, 2024. Retrieved January 19, 2024.
- ^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
- ^ "Human Rights Campaign PAC Endorses Former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for Senate". Human Rights Campaign. February 21, 2024. Retrieved February 21, 2024.
- ^ "Jewish Dems Endorse in Key House and Senate Races, Pledge Resources to Mobilize Jewish Voters". Jewish Democratic Council of America. March 28, 2023.
- ^ "Latino Victory Fund Endorses Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for United States Senate". Latino Victory. March 6, 2024. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
- ^ "LCV Action Fund Endorses Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for Senate". League of Conservation Voters. Archived from the original on September 28, 2023. Retrieved September 28, 2023.
- ^ Ogles, Jacob (November 21, 2023). "Social Security-focused PAC backs Debbie Mucarsel-Powell". Florida Politics. Retrieved November 27, 2023.
- ^ "Meet Our 2024 Candidates". Peace Action. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
- ^ "Candidates". PODER PAC. Retrieved December 4, 2023.
- ^ "Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for the U.S. Senate". Reproductive Freedom for All. February 8, 2024. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
- ^ "Vote Mama PAC | Candidates". Vote Mama PAC. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
- ^ "James Davis FEC Statement of Candidacy". January 28, 2021. Retrieved December 11, 2022.
- ^ "HERNANDEZ, SALOMON SR. - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved April 13, 2023.
- ^ "TOLER, RANDY MR. - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved April 13, 2023.
- ^ "Alix Christopher Toulme". Ballotpedia. Retrieved April 3, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
- ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
- ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
- ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
External links[edit]
- Official campaign websites