Legality of Cannabis by U.S. Jurisdiction

2022 United States Senate election in Arizona

← 2020 (special) November 8, 2022 (2022-11-08) 2028 →
 
Nominee Mark Kelly Blake Masters
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,322,027 1,196,308
Percentage 51.39% 46.51%

Kelly:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Masters:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

U.S. senator before election

Mark Kelly
Democratic

Elected U.S. senator

Mark Kelly
Democratic

The 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona.

The seat was previously held by Republican John McCain, who won his final term in 2016 and died on August 25, 2018. Governor Doug Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill the seat. Kyl resigned at the end of that year and Ducey replaced him with Martha McSally, who then lost to Democrat Mark Kelly in 2020.

Primaries in Arizona took place on August 2, 2022. Kelly won renomination without opposition, while venture capitalist Blake Masters won the Republican nomination against a large field of candidates. Although Arizona typically leans Republican, Kelly led Masters by low single digits in aggregate polling. Kelly held a significant fundraising advantage until many Republican-aligned groups began spending to assist Masters in the final weeks of the campaign.[1] On November 1, Libertarian nominee Marc Victor dropped out of the race and endorsed Masters.[2][3][4]

Kelly won re-election, defeating Masters by a comfortable margin of about 5 points.[5] This was the first time Democrats won a full term to this seat since 1962. The 2022 race was competitive and seen as crucial to determining party control of the U.S. Senate; with Kelly's victory in Arizona and a Democratic victory in Nevada, in addition to a Democratic gain in Pennsylvania, it was projected on November 12 that the Democratic caucus would retain control of the Senate in the 118th United States Congress.[6][7] Masters conceded the race to Kelly on November 15, 2022.[8]

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominee[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Results[edit]

Democratic primary results[24][25]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mark Kelly (incumbent) 589,400 100.0%
Total votes 589,400 100.0%

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominee[edit]

Eliminated in primary[edit]

Did not file[edit]

  • Craig Brittain[31]
  • Robert Paveza, software engineer[32]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Mark Brnovich
Individuals
Newspapers
Jim Lamon
U.S. Executive Branch officials
Statewide officials
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations
Former
Blake Masters
Justin Olson
Organizations
  • Stand for Health Freedom[65]

Polling[edit]

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Mark
Brnovich
Jim
Lamon
Blake
Masters
Michael
McGuire
Justin
Olson
Undecided
[a]
Margin
Real Clear Politics July 27 – August 1, 2022 August 2, 2022 14.5% 22.0% 37.0% 8.5% 3.3% 17.7% Masters +15.0
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Mark
Brnovich
Jim
Lamon
Blake
Masters
Michael
McGuire
Justin
Olson
Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) July 30 – August 1, 2022 1,064 (LV) ± 2.9% 16% 24% 39% 7% 4% 9%
Emerson College July 28–30, 2022 600 (LV) ± 3.9% 14% 22% 40% 12% 3% 9%
Rasmussen Reports July 27–28, 2022 710 (LV) ± 4.0% 16% 19% 31% 10% 3% 6% 15%
OH Predictive Insights July 27, 2022 502 (LV) ± 4.4% 12% 21% 36% 5% 3% 22%
Battleground Connect (R) July 26–27, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.7% 16% 30% 28% 8% 6% 12%
The Trafalgar Group (R) July 25–27, 2022 1,071 (LV) ± 2.9% 15% 27% 35% 8% 6% 10%
Battleground Connect (R) July 17–18, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.7% 16% 33% 28% 7% 2% 14%
Cygnal (R) July 12–13, 2022 419 (LV) ± 4.8% 18% 20% 30% 5% 2% 25%
Battleground Connect (R) July 7–9, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.7% 16% 29% 27% 4% 24%
HighGround Public Affairs (R) July 2–7, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 13% 14% 23% 5% 2% 44%
Alloy Analytics (R)/J.L. Partners July 5–6, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 10% 14% 26% 5% 0% 45%
OH Predictive Insights June 30 – July 2, 2022 515 (LV) ± 4.3% 14% 18% 25% 6% 2% 35%
Public Policy Polling (D) June 28, 2022 595 (LV) ± 4.0% 15% 10% 29% 5% 41%
The Trafalgar Group (R) June 7–9, 2022 1,077 (LV) ± 2.9% 24% 17% 29% 4% 4% 22%
Data Orbital (R) June 1–3, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.3% 18% 20% 15% 12% 36%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A] May 17–18, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 18% 18% 22% 7% 2% 34%
Cygnal (R)[B] April 28–30, 2022 – (LV) 19% 20% 19% 7% 2% 33%
The Trafalgar Group (R) April 25–28, 2022 1,064 (LV) ± 3.0% 24% 25% 19% 8% 3% 21%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[C] April 21–24, 2022 – (LV) 22% 25% 16% 6% 31%
OH Predictive Insights April 4–5, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 21% 16% 9% 6% 3% 45%
Data Orbital (R) April 1–3, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.3% 20% 26% 10% 7% 4% 33%
HighGround Public Affairs (R) March 26–27, 2022 264 (LV) ± 6.0% 11% 10% 6% 4% 8% 61%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A] March 13–14, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 14% 14% 16% 3% 1% 52%
Alloy Analytics (R)/J.L. Partners March 9–12, 2022 433 (LV) ± 4.7% 20% 15% 15% 3% 1% 45%
Data Orbital (R) March 2022 – (LV) 23% 17% 14% 4% 5% 37%
Data Orbital (R) February 11–13, 2022 300 (LV) ± 5.7% 22% 17% 15% 5% 5% 37%
co/efficient (R) February 6–8, 2022 755 (LV) ± 3.6% 17% 13% 12% 3% 1% 11% 44%
OH Predictive Insights January 11–13, 2022 302 (RV) ± 5.6% 25% 7% 6% 11% 4% 47%
OH Predictive Insights November 1–8, 2021 252 (RV) ± 6.2% 27% 5% 9% 12% 2% 46%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A] October 26–28, 2021 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 26% 4% 14% 2% 2% <1%[c] 52%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[D] September 9–12, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 41% 5% 7% 4% 43%
OH Predictive Insights September 7–12, 2021 311 (RV) ± 5.6% 27% 3% 6% 14% 51%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A] August 4–8, 2021 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 29% 7% 5% 3% <1%[c] 56%
HighGround Public Affairs (R) May 3–5, 2021 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 28% 1% 1% 61%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Kirk
Adams
Andy
Biggs
Mark
Brnovich
Doug
Ducey
Jim
Lamon
Blake
Masters
Michael
McGuire
Justin
Olson
Other Undecided
co/efficient (R) February 6–8, 2022 755 (LV) ± 3.6% 14% 13% 11% 11% 3% 1% 9% 38%
OH Predictive Insights January 11–13, 2022 302 (RV) ± 5.6% 13% 35% 4% 4% 9% 2% 34%
WPA Intelligence (R)[E] April 5–6, 2021 505 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 45% 9%
OH Predictive Insights March 8–12, 2021 690 (RV) ± 3.7% 2%[d] 27% 2% 3% 67%
6%[e] 26% 2% 10% 56%
Data Orbital (R)[F] February 17–19, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 2% 36% 1% 1% 3% 4% 53%

Results[edit]

Republican primary results by county
  Masters
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Lamon
  •   30-40%
Republican primary results[24][25]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Blake Masters 327,198 40.24%
Republican Jim Lamon 228,467 28.10%
Republican Mark Brnovich 144,092 17.72%
Republican Michael McGuire 71,100 8.75%
Republican Justin Olson 41,985 5.16%
Write-in 226 0.03%
Total votes 813,068 100.0%

Libertarian primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominee[edit]

  • Marc Victor, attorney and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2012[66] (withdrew from general election, endorsed Blake Masters)[2]

Results[edit]

Libertarian primary results[24][67][25]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Marc Victor 3,065 100.0%
Total votes 3,065 100.0%

General election[edit]

Initially expected to be one of the most widely contested elections in the nation, Kelly amassed a massive fundraising advantage over Masters, raising a record $75 million compared to Masters's $12 million.[68] Due to the Supreme Court's Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, which reversed Roe v. Wade, Kelly spent the campaign heavily attacking Masters over his anti-abortion stance, which was seen as hurting Masters especially among women voters. He also attacked Masters's support for privatizing Social Security, as Arizona has many retired seniors that use the program. Masters's claim that the 2020 presidential election was stolen also hurt him among voters.[69]

With the limited amount of money he had, Masters attempted to portray Kelly as weak on illegal immigration, supportive of spending programs that caused inflation, and too supportive of President Joe Biden. In the final weeks of the campaign, Republican groups began to increase the amount of money they were spending on the race, and many news outlets moved the race from lean Democrat to tossup. However, in the end, Kelly relatively easily defeated Masters, which helped Democrats in retaining the Senate.[70] According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Kelly won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Masters's defeat.[71]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[72] Tossup October 27, 2022
Inside Elections[73] Tilt D October 21, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[74] Lean D October 19, 2022
Politico[75] Tossup October 27, 2022
RCP[76] Tossup October 25, 2022
Fox News[77] Tossup October 25, 2022
DDHQ[78] Lean D October 25, 2022
FiveThirtyEight[79] Lean D October 25, 2022
The Economist[80] Lean D November 1, 2022

Debates[edit]

2022 United States Senate general election in Arizona debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Republican Libertarian
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee

 W  Withdrawn

Mark Kelly Blake Masters Marc Victor
1 October 6, 2022 Arizona PBS Ted Simons Youtube P P P

Endorsements[edit]

Mark Kelly (D)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
U.S. Attorneys
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Blake Masters (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Governors
Local officials
Party officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Rejected by candidate

Polling[edit]

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Mark
Kelly (D)
Blake
Masters (R)
Undecided
[f]
Margin
RealClearPolitics October 30 – November 7, 2022 November 7, 2022 48.0% 48.3% 3.7% Masters +0.3
FiveThirtyEight September 7, 2021 – November 7, 2022 November 7, 2022 48.6% 47.1% 4.3% Kelly +1.5
270ToWin November 3–7, 2022 November 7, 2022 47.9% 46.6% 5.5% Kelly +1.3
Average 48.3% 47.2% 4.5% Kelly +1.1
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Mark
Kelly (D)
Blake
Masters (R)
Marc
Victor (L)
Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) November 5–7, 2022 1,094 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 48% 1% 4%
Data Orbital (R) November 4–6, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 47% 2% 1%[g] 3%
Research Co. November 4–6, 2022 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 49% 46% 2% 3%
Data for Progress (D) November 2–6, 2022 1,359 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 50% 2%
Targoz Market Research November 2–6, 2022 560 (LV) ± 4.1% 50% 47% 2%
KAConsulting (R)[G] November 2–3, 2022 501 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 46% 1% 6%
InsiderAdvantage (R) November 2, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 48% 48% 2% 2%
HighGround Inc. November 1–2, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 45% 2%[h] 6%
Remington Research Group (R) November 1–2, 2022 1,075 (LV) ± 2.9% 48% 47% 2% 3%
Marist College October 31 – November 2, 2022 1,157 (RV) ± 4.1% 49% 45% 1%[i] 8%
1,015 (LV) ± 4.3% 50% 47% 1%[j] 2%
Big Data Poll (R) October 31 – November 2, 2022 1,051 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 49% 4%
Patriot Polling (R) October 30 – November 2, 2022 814 (RV) 49% 48% 4%
Civiqs October 29 – November 2, 2022 852 (LV) ± 4.2% 49% 49% 2%[k] 1%
November 1, 2022 Victor withdraws from the race and endorses Masters
Emerson College October 30 – November 1, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 48% 3% 1%[l] 1%
48% 48% 3% 1%[m]
The Phillips Academy October 29–30, 2022 985 (LV) ± 3.1% 47% 47% 2% 5%
Fox News October 26–30, 2022 1,003 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 45% 4%[n] 5%
Wick Insights (R) October 26–30, 2022 1,122 (LV) ± 3.2% 49% 47% 3%[o] 1%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R)[E] October 24–26, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 46% 3%
OH Predictive Insights October 24–26, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 46% 3% 3%
Siena College/NYT October 24–26, 2022 604 (LV) ± 4.4% 51% 45% 1% 3%
BSP Research/Shaw & Co.[H] October 19–26, 2022 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 44% 40% 5%[p] 11%
InsiderAdvantage (R) October 24–25, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 45% 43% 6% 6%
co/efficient (R) October 20–21, 2022 1,111 (LV) ± 3.1% 47% 45% 4% 4%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[I] October 14–18, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 45% 2% <1%[q] 6%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[J] October 16–17, 2022 1,078 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 46% 3% 4%
Data for Progress (D) October 11–17, 2022 893 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 47% 3% 4%
Wick Insights (R) October 8–14, 2022 1,058 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 46% 2%[r] 3%
HighGround Inc.[K] October 12–13, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 42% 40% 5% 3%[s] 10%
InsiderAdvantage (R) October 11, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 46% 42% 5% 7%
Kurt Jetta (D)[L] October 9–10, 2022 894 (RV) 54% 32% 15%
551 (LV) 55% 38% 7%
Ascend Action (R) October 8–10, 2022 954 (LV) ± 3.2% 48% 44% 5%[t] 2%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[M] October 8–10, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 43% 4% 7%
OH Predictive Insights October 4–6, 2022 674 (LV) ± 3.8% 46% 33% 15% 7%
Big Data Poll (R) October 2–5, 2022 970 (LV) ± 3.1% 46% 45% 2% 7%
YouGov/CBS News September 30 – October 4, 2022 1,164 (RV) ± 3.8% 51% 48% 1%
CNN/SSRS September 26 – October 2, 2022 900 (RV) ± 4.4% 52% 42% 7%[u]
795 (LV) ± 4.6% 51% 45% 4%[v]
Fox News September 22–26, 2022 1,008 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 40% 6%[w] 9%
Suffolk University September 21–25, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 42% 2% 7%
Marist College September 19–22, 2022 1,260 (RV) ± 3.6% 51% 41% 8%
1,076 (LV) ± 3.9% 50% 45% 5%
Data for Progress (D) September 15–19, 2022 768 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 47% 2% 3%
The Trafalgar Group (R) September 14–17, 2022 1080 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 45% 3% 5%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) September 8–15, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 42% 4% 4%
52% 45% 3%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[M] September 6–11, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 50% 40% 6% 5%
Kurt Jetta (D)[L] September 9–10, 2022 972 (RV) ± 3.5% 53% 32% 15%
563 (LV) 55% 35% 9%
OH Predictive Insights September 6–9, 2022 654 (LV) ± 3.8% 47% 35% 6% 12%
Emerson College September 6–7, 2022 627 (LV) ± 3.9% 47% 45% 3%[x] 5%
InsiderAdvantage (R) September 6–7, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 45% 39% 4% 12%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022 773 (RV) ±4.5% 52% 37% 11%
The Trafalgar Group (R) August 24–27, 2022 1,074 (LV) ± 2.9% 48% 44% 4% 4%
RMG Research August 16–22, 2022 750 (LV) ± 3.6% 50% 43% 7%
Fox News August 12–16, 2022 1,012 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 42% 2% 6%
Kurt Jetta (D)[L] August 4–8, 2022 1,107 (A) ± 2.9% 48% 34% 19%
877 (RV) ± 3.3% 50% 34% 16%
512 (LV) ± 4.3% 54% 40% 7%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[N] August 1–2, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 44% 7%
Beacon Research (D)[O] July 5–20, 2022 802 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 34% 1% 13%
504 (LV) ± 4.4% 51% 39% 2% 8%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A] July 13–14, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 44% 7%
Change Research (D)[P] June 24–27, 2022 705 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 39% 13%
Blueprint Polling (D) May 12–16, 2022 608 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 32% 19%
OH Predictive Insights September 7–12, 2021 882 (RV) ± 3.3% 44% 35% 21%
Hypothetical polling
Mark Kelly vs. Mark Brnovich
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Mark
Kelly (D)
Mark
Brnovich (R)
Other Undecided
Beacon Research (D)[O] July 5–20, 2022 802 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 35% 1% 11%
504 (LV) ± 4.4% 51% 40% 2% 7%
Blueprint Polling (D) May 12–16, 2022 608 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 33% 18%
Data for Progress (D) January 21–24, 2022 1,469 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 47% 4%
OH Predictive Insights September 7–12, 2021 882 (RV) ± 3.3% 43% 39% 18%
OH Predictive Insights May 3–5, 2021 935 (RV) ± 3.2% 46% 36% 18%
Mark Kelly vs. Jim Lamon
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Mark
Kelly (D)
Jim
Lamon (R)
Other Undecided
Beacon Research (D)[O] July 5–20, 2022 802 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 34% 2% 14%
504 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 40% 2% 9%
Change Research (D)[P] June 24–27, 2022 705 (LV) ± 3.7% 47% 41% 12%
Blueprint Polling (D) May 12–16, 2022 608 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 34% 18%
OH Predictive Insights September 7–12, 2021 882 (RV) ± 3.3% 43% 36% 21%
Mark Kelly vs. Michael McGuire
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Mark
Kelly (D)
Michael
McGuire (R)
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights September 7–12, 2021 882 (RV) ± 3.3% 44% 37% 19%
OH Predictive Insights May 3–5, 2021 935 (RV) ± 3.2% 44% 35% 21%
Mark Kelly vs. Andy Biggs
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Mark
Kelly (D)
Andy
Biggs (R)
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights May 3–5, 2021 935 (RV) ± 3.2% 47% 36% 18%
Mark Kelly vs. Doug Ducey
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Mark
Kelly (D)
Doug
Ducey (R)
Undecided
Data for Progress (D) January 21–24, 2022 1,469 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 47% 4%
Mark Kelly vs. Kelli Ward
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Mark
Kelly (D)
Kelli
Ward (R)
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights May 3–5, 2021 935 (RV) ± 3.2% 47% 36% 18%
Mark Kelly vs. Kari Lake
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Mark
Kelly (D)
Kari
Lake (R)
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights May 3–5, 2021 935 (RV) ± 3.2% 46% 35% 19%
Mark Kelly vs. Jack McCain
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Mark
Kelly (D)
Jack
McCain (R)
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights May 3–5, 2021 935 (RV) ± 3.2% 43% 29% 28%
Mark Kelly vs. Kimberly Yee
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Mark
Kelly (D)
Kimberly
Yee (R)
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights May 3–5, 2021 935 (RV) ± 3.2% 45% 35% 19%
Mark Kelly vs. generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Mark
Kelly (D)
Generic
Republican
Other Undecided
OH Predictive Insights May 9–16, 2022 938 (RV) ± 3.3% 40% 39% 21%
HighGround Public Affairs (R) March 26–27, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 41% 2% 12%
OH Predictive Insights March 7–15, 2022 753 (RV) ± 3.6% 37% 39% 24%
Change Research (D)[P] March 2022 – (LV) 43% 46% 11%
OH Predictive Insights January 11–13, 2022 855 (RV) ± 3.4% 42% 38% 19%
OH Predictive Insights November 1–8, 2021 713 (RV) ± 3.7% 40% 39% 21%
Mark Kelly vs. generic opponent
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Mark
Kelly (D)
Generic
Opponent
Undecided
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A] July 13–14, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 48% 7%
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A] July 13–14, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 46% 8%

Results[edit]

2022 United States Senate election in Arizona[127]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Mark Kelly (incumbent) 1,322,027 51.39% +0.23%
Republican Blake Masters 1,196,308 46.51% -2.30%
Libertarian Marc Victor (withdrawn) 53,762 2.09% N/A
Write-in 197 0.01% -0.02%
Total votes 2,572,294 100.0%
Democratic hold

By county[edit]

By county
County Mark Kelly
Democratic
Blake Masters
Republican
Marc Victor
Libertarian
Write-in Margin Total
votes
# % # % # % # % # %
Apache 18,005 67.39 8,163 30.55 549 2.05 2 0.01 9,842 36.84 26,719
Cochise 20,002 42.57 25,539 54.35 1,383 2.94 67 0.14 -5,537 -11.78 46,991
Coconino 35,149 63.84 18,697 33.96 1,199 2.18 13 0.02 16,452 29.88 55,058
Gila 7,984 35.42 13,958 61.91 601 2.67 1 0.00 -5,974 -26.50 22,544
Graham 3,243 29.79 7,388 67.87 255 2.34 0 0.00 -4,145 -38.08 10,886
Greenlee 970 39.40 1,392 56.54 100 4.06 0 0.00 -422 -17.14 2,462
La Paz 1,711 30.94 3,656 66.11 160 2.89 3 0.05 -1,945 -35.17 5,530
Maricopa 809,573 52.19 710,491 45.80 31,099 2.00 63 0.00 99,082 6.39 1,551,226
Mohave 21,040 25.69 58,737 71.72 2,117 2.58 5 0.01 -37,697 -46.03 81,899
Navajo 18,724 46.08 20,970 51.61 927 2.28 9 0.02 -2,246 -5.53 40,630
Pima 248,230 61.95 144,936 36.17 7,544 1.88 15 0.00 103,294 25.78 400,725
Pinal 62,009 42.92 78,820 54.55 3,650 2.53 7 0.00 -16,811 -11.64 144,486
Santa Cruz 8,988 68.16 3,892 29.52 304 2.31 2 0.02 5,096 38.65 13,186
Yavapai 45,258 36.60 75,752 61.26 2,633 2.13 8 0.01 -30,494 -24.66 123,651
Yuma 21,141 45.66 23,917 51.66 1,241 2.68 2 0.00 -2,776 -6.00 46,301
Totals 1,322,027 51.39 1,196,308 46.51 53,762 2.09 197 0.01 125,719 4.89 2,572,294

By congressional district[edit]

Kelly won 5 out of 9 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.[128]

District Kelly Masters Representative
1st 52% 46% David Schweikert
2nd 47% 51% Tom O'Halleran (117th Congress)
Eli Crane (118th Congress)
3rd 76% 21% Ruben Gallego
4th 57% 41% Greg Stanton
5th 44% 54% Andy Biggs
6th 54% 44% Ann Kirkpatrick (117th Congress)
Juan Ciscomani (118th Congress)
7th 68% 30% Raúl Grijalva
8th 46% 52% Debbie Lesko
9th 38% 60% Paul Gosar

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ a b Paveza with <1%
  4. ^ Response without candidates' job titles, besides 'Major General' for McGuire
  5. ^ Response with candidates' job titles
  6. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  7. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  8. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  9. ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  10. ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  11. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  12. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  13. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  14. ^ "Other" with 3%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  15. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  16. ^ "Someone else" with 5%
  17. ^ "Other" with <1%; "Refused" with <1%
  18. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  19. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  20. ^ "Another candidate" with 5%
  21. ^ "Neither" with 5%; "Other" with 2%
  22. ^ "Neither" with 3%; "Other" with 1%
  23. ^ "Other" with 3%; "Wouldn't vote" with 3%
  24. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c d e f g This poll was sponsored by Saving Arizona, which supports Blake Masters
  2. ^ This poll was sponsored by Kari Lake's campaign for governor
  3. ^ This poll was sponsored by Lamon's campaign
  4. ^ This poll was sponsored by Advancing Arizona Forward, which supports Mark Brnovich
  5. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action
  6. ^ This poll was sponsored by Andy Biggs's campaign committee
  7. ^ Poll conducted for Citizens United, a conservative non-profit organization.
  8. ^ Poll conducted for Univision.
  9. ^ Poll conducted for The Federalist, a conservative online magazine.
  10. ^ This poll was sponsored by The Daily Wire
  11. ^ This poll was sponsored by Arizona's Family
  12. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Masters
  13. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by the Sentinel Action Fund, which supports Masters
  14. ^ This poll was sponsored by America Next
  15. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project
  16. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Future Majority and America’s Future Majority Fund

References[edit]

  1. ^ "GOP megadonor Peter Thiel to host fundraiser for Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters". CNBC. September 20, 2022.
  2. ^ a b Goldmacher, Shane (November 1, 2022). "Libertarian Candidate Drops Out of Arizona Senate Race and Endorses Masters". The New York Times.
  3. ^ "Arizona's Libertarian Senate Candidate Quits and Endorses Masters". Bloomberg.com. November 2022.
  4. ^ a b "Libertarian Senate candidate Marc Victor drops out of race". ABC 15 Arizona. November 1, 2022.
  5. ^ Ulloa, Jazmine (November 12, 2022). "Mark Kelly Wins Arizona Senate Race, Putting Democrats a Seat From Control". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 12, 2022.
  6. ^ Ulloa, Jazmine (November 12, 2022). "Mark Kelly Wins Arizona Senate Race, Putting Democrats a Seat From Control". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 13, 2022.
  7. ^ "Democrats keep control of the Senate with win in Nevada". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved November 13, 2022.
  8. ^ "Blake Masters concedes Sen. Mark Kelly's victory, ending a crucial Arizona Senate race". AZ Central. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved November 15, 2022.
  9. ^ "Statement of Candidacy Filing FEC-1473777". Federal Election Commission. November 25, 2020. Archived from the original on November 25, 2020.
  10. ^ "Kelly raises $4.4 million for Senate re-election bid". Associated Press. April 8, 2021. Archived from the original on May 15, 2021. Retrieved May 15, 2021. He's [Mark Kelly's] now seeking a full six-year term.
  11. ^ a b c d "We Are Republicans. There's Only One Way to Save Our Party From Pro-Trump Extremists". The New York Times. October 11, 2021.
  12. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Kavaler, Tara (July 15, 2022). "'Republicans for Kelly' group announces support for Sen. Mark Kelly". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved July 29, 2022.
  13. ^ a b "314 Action Fund Endorses Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly for Re-Election". 314 Action. June 29, 2021.
  14. ^ a b c d Bowman, Bridget (May 13, 2021). "Campaign finance-focused PAC makes first 2022 Senate endorsements". Roll Call. Archived from the original on May 17, 2021. Retrieved June 12, 2021. The group, known as End Citizens United and Let America Vote, is endorsing Democratic Sens. Mark Kelly of Arizona, ...
  15. ^ a b "2022 Feminist Majority PAC Endorsements". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved April 9, 2022.
  16. ^ "Forward Party Senate Endorsements". Forward Party. Retrieved March 9, 2023.
  17. ^ a b "Jewish Dems Start 2022 Election Cycle With First Slate of Endorsements". Jewishdems.org. November 30, 2021. Retrieved December 11, 2021.
  18. ^ a b "Endorsements". March On. December 6, 2021.
  19. ^ "Endorsements". Prochoiceamerica.org. NARAL Pro-Choice America. Retrieved June 24, 2022.
  20. ^ a b "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". Plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved December 22, 2021.
  21. ^ a b "2022 House & Senate Endorsements". Population Connection. Archived from the original on July 2, 2022. Retrieved July 4, 2022.
  22. ^ a b "Anti-Trump Republicans endorsing vulnerable Democrats to prevent GOP takeover". The Hill. October 14, 2021.
  23. ^ a b "Endorsed Candidates". Votevets.org.
  24. ^ a b c "2022 Primary Election". Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved April 5, 2022.
  25. ^ a b c Arizona Secretary of State (August 22, 2022). "State of Arizona Official Canvass – August 2, 2022, Primary Election" (PDF). Retrieved August 26, 2022.
  26. ^ Steinhauser, Paul (July 9, 2021). "Thiel ally Blake Masters files for 2022 GOP Senate run in Arizona". Fox Business. Archived from the original on July 9, 2021. Retrieved July 10, 2021.
  27. ^ "Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich launches US Senate campaign". The Arizona Republic.
  28. ^ Sanchez, Yvonne. "Jim Lamon is the first Republican to enter Arizona's 2022 Senate race". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved May 3, 2021.
  29. ^ Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett (June 8, 2021). "Michael McGuire enters Arizona's GOP US Senate primary race; hopes to challenge Sen. Mark Kelly". Arizona Republic. Retrieved June 8, 2021.
  30. ^ Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett (October 13, 2021). "Arizona utilities regulator Justin Olson enters GOP Senate race, slams Democrats' spending proposal as 'socialist state'". Arizona Republic. Retrieved October 13, 2021.
  31. ^ "'Let's go, Brandon' becomes a campaign slogan in Arizona Republican's new ad". Retrieved January 28, 2022.
  32. ^ "Statement of Candidacy Filing FEC-1498745". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved February 5, 2021.
  33. ^ Brufke, Juliegrace (March 1, 2021). "House Freedom Caucus chair weighs Arizona Senate bid". The Hill.
  34. ^ Brufke, Juliegrace (March 2021). "House Freedom Caucus chair weighs Arizona Senate bid". The Hill. Retrieved March 1, 2021.
  35. ^ "News". BiggsForCongress.com.
  36. ^ Sanchez, Yvonne (March 3, 2022). "'I have the job I want': Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey will not run for the U.S. Senate in 2022". Arizona Mirror. Retrieved March 3, 2022.
  37. ^ Valencia, Peter. "Kari Lake announces run for Arizona governor". AZFamily (KPHO-TV/KTVK). Retrieved June 1, 2021.
  38. ^ Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett (June 10, 2020). "Jack McCain, John McCain's son, has no 'immediate plans to run for office'". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved May 24, 2021.
  39. ^ Roberts, Laurie (December 11, 2020). "Doug Ducey vs. Kelli Ward for the Senate in '22? That would be epic. But it won't happen". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved January 7, 2021.
  40. ^ Fischer, Howard (January 25, 2021). "Arizona Gov. Ducey: I Won't Run For U.S. Senate In 2022". 91.5 KJZZ Phoenix Radio. Retrieved January 25, 2021.
  41. ^ "Kimberly Yee announces run for Arizona governor". KNXV. May 17, 2021. Retrieved May 17, 2021.
  42. ^ "Mark Levin on AG Brnovich: "This is why I've endorsed you for the U.S. Senate"". YouTube. Retrieved July 8, 2022.
  43. ^ "Mark Levin endorsed Arizona Mark Brnovich". brnoforaz. September 9, 2021. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
  44. ^ a b Hillyer, Quin (July 7, 2022). "Trump endorses strange Arizona man over MAGA star". Washington Examiner. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
  45. ^ "Editorial: Primary election". Casa Grande Dispatch. July 6, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
  46. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q "Lamon Endorsements". September 16, 2021. Retrieved June 26, 2022.
  47. ^ "CPAC Endorses Jim Lamon". Conservative.org. December 8, 2021. Retrieved December 11, 2021.
  48. ^ "Arizona Police Association Endorses Jim Lamon - Jim Lamon for U.S. Senate AZ". September 18, 2021.
  49. ^ Sivak, David. "Jim Lamon loses Trump ally Richard Grenell's endorsement in Arizona Senate primary". Washington Examiner. Retrieved June 16, 2022.
  50. ^ a b Greenwood, Max (June 2, 2022). "Trump Endorses Masters in Arizona Senate GOP Primary". The Hill. Retrieved June 2, 2022.
  51. ^ a b c d Greenwood, Max (February 3, 2022). "Club for Growth endorses Blake Masters in Arizona Senate race". The Hill. Retrieved February 6, 2021.
  52. ^ a b Drucker, David M. (October 11, 2021). "Blake Masters picks up Trump alumnus endorsement in Arizona Senate bid". Washington Examiner. Retrieved October 14, 2021.
  53. ^ a b c d "tennesseestar.com". July 6, 2022. Retrieved July 6, 2022.
  54. ^ a b Isenstadt, Alex (April 25, 2022). "Hawley endorses Thiel-backed Arizona Senate candidate". POLITICO. Retrieved April 26, 2022.
  55. ^ a b c d Ackley, Kate; Bowman, Bridget; Akin, Stephanie (October 21, 2021). "At the Races: Quarterly clues". Roll Call. Archived from the original on October 22, 2021. Retrieved October 25, 2021.
  56. ^ a b "Congressman Madison Cawthorn Endorses Arizona GOP Senate Candidate Blake Masters". January 31, 2022.
  57. ^ a b "Marjorie Taylor Greene endorses Blake Masters in Arizona Senate race". May 6, 2022.
  58. ^ a b Bade, Rachael; Palmeri, Tara; Ross, Garrett; Okun, Eli (July 13, 2021). "Politico Playbook PM: What is (and isn't) in the Dems' 'go-big' bill". Politico.
  59. ^ a b Isenstadt, Alex (April 26, 2021). "Peter Thiel makes $10M bet on associate in Arizona Senate race". Politico. Retrieved May 24, 2021.
  60. ^ Palmeri, Tara (January 21, 2022). "POLITICO Playbook: Suspicious Trump weighs dual endorsements". POLITICO. Retrieved March 3, 2023.
  61. ^ a b "Republicans for National Renewal Endorses Blake Masters for U.S. Senate". December 20, 2021.
  62. ^ a b "ELECTION ALERT: Tea Party Express Endorses Blake Masters for Senate in Arizona". Tea Party Express. August 1, 2022. Retrieved August 23, 2022.
  63. ^ a b "Neo-Nazi publisher Andrew Anglin gives 'forceful endorsement' of Blake Masters' Senate bid". July 1, 2022.
  64. ^ a b "Trump-backed Senate candidate Blake Masters rejects endorsement of neo-Nazi site founder". July 1, 2022.
  65. ^ "Justin Olson for Arizona US Senate | Stand for Health Freedom". March 25, 2022.
  66. ^ "2022 Primary Election Interested Candidates". apps.arizona.vote. Archived from the original on April 2, 2022. Retrieved July 6, 2021.
  67. ^ "2022 Primary Election Results". Arizona Secretary of State.
  68. ^ "Kelly continues to raise money 'like a maniac,' dwarfing Masters in Senate race". bizjournals.com. October 18, 2022. Retrieved April 6, 2023.
  69. ^ "Column: In Arizona, fears that yet another flawed candidate may cost GOP control of Senate". Los Angeles Times. September 2022.
  70. ^ "Fox News Power Rankings: Storm clouds gather for Democrats in the Northeast". Fox News. October 25, 2022.
  71. ^ Brownstein, Ronald (October 10, 2023). "McCarthy's fall and Trump's rise reflect the same bet among Republicans". CNN. Retrieved October 10, 2023.
  72. ^ "2022 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 25, 2022.
  73. ^ "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved October 25, 2022.
  74. ^ "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 25, 2022.
  75. ^ "Senate Election Forecast 2022". Politico. October 19, 2022.
  76. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2022". RealClearPolitics. October 25, 2022.
  77. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. October 25, 2022. Retrieved October 25, 2022.
  78. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. October 25, 2022. Retrieved October 25, 2022.
  79. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. October 25, 2022. Retrieved October 25, 2022.
  80. ^ "Economist's 2022 Senate forecast". The Economist. October 16, 2022. Retrieved October 25, 2022.
  81. ^ "Former President Barack Obama set to hold rally for Sen. Mark Kelly, Katie Hobbs in Phoenix".
  82. ^ "California Sen. Alex Padilla is campaigning hard — just not for himself". Los Angeles Times. October 27, 2022.
  83. ^ Everett, Burgess (October 5, 2022). "Senate Dems face brutal 2024 map with at least eight undecided incumbents". Politico. Retrieved October 5, 2022.
  84. ^ a b c "Mark Kelly holds campaign rally in Tucson". November 4, 2022.
  85. ^ a b c "Multiple GOP mayors, business owners backing Democrat Sen. Mark Kelly". July 17, 2022.
  86. ^ "The Arizona Republic".
  87. ^ a b "Celebrities campaign for Democratic candidates Kelly and Hobbs in Arizona".
  88. ^ "OUR RECOMMENDED CANDIDATES". Retrieved October 29, 2022.
  89. ^ "Arizona - COMPAC Endorsements". UMWA. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
  90. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q "Mark Kelly's Ratings and Endorsements". justfacts.votesmart.org. Retrieved November 1, 2022.
  91. ^ "Equality Arizona Endorsements". Equality Arizona.
  92. ^ Luneau, Delphine (April 28, 2022). "Human Rights Campaign Proudly Endorses Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly for Reelection". Human Rights Campaign. Human Rights Campaign.
  93. ^ "LCV Action Fund Endorses Mark Kelly for Senate". August 22, 2022.
  94. ^ "Congressional Endorsements". Sierra Club Independent Action.
  95. ^ "2022 Endorsements". Forward Party. Retrieved April 6, 2023.
  96. ^ Samuels, Brett (October 11, 2022). "Pence backs Masters in Arizona Senate race at Phoenix event". The Hill. Retrieved October 12, 2022.
  97. ^ a b c d "Prominent pro-Trump couple to fundraise for Senate candidates List". The Washington Post. September 19, 2022. Retrieved September 22, 2022.
  98. ^ "First Lady Jill Biden among top names in Arizona helping candidates campaign". November 6, 2022.
  99. ^ "Ted Cruz Rallies Kari Lake". The Cincinnati Enquirer.
  100. ^ "Florida Sen. Rick Scott rallies for Republican Senate hopeful Blake Masters".
  101. ^ "Endorsements". Retrieved October 27, 2022.
  102. ^ a b c @MastersPress (September 12, 2022). "UNITY: Arizona Republican Congressional Delegation endorses @bgmasters for U.S. Senate" (Tweet). Retrieved September 13, 2022 – via Twitter.
  103. ^ "Tulsi Gabbard to campaign for Kari Lake, Blake Masters in Arizona". October 18, 2022.
  104. ^ @DrPaulGosar (August 31, 2022). "We need a solid leader like @bgmasters in the Senate if we are to save this country. He has my full support" (Tweet). Retrieved September 3, 2022 – via Twitter.
  105. ^ "Does Blake Masters Have the 'Right Stuff' for Senate? With Guest...Blake Masters!".
  106. ^ "Does Blake Masters Have the 'Right Stuff' for Senate? With Guest...Blake Masters!". October 24, 2022.
  107. ^ "Will the Midterms Change Anything?".
  108. ^ a b c Roberts, Laurie. "Three governors' endorsements for Masters don't mean nearly as much as one judge's ruling". The Arizona Republic.
  109. ^ "DeSantis to hit campaign trail to rally support for Trump-endorsed candidates: 'Unite and win'". Fox News. August 7, 2022.
  110. ^ @DougDucey (August 6, 2022). "As co-chairman of the Republican Governors Association, our organization is already active on the airwaves supporti…" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  111. ^ Cowling, Mark (September 26, 2022). "Masters travels to Pinal to receive Lamb's endorsement". Pinal Central. Retrieved September 29, 2022.
  112. ^ a b Sievers, Caitlin (September 13, 2022). "AZ Republicans plead with Mitch McConnell to spend millions of dollars to help Blake Masters". AZMIRROR. Retrieved September 29, 2022.
  113. ^ a b Ecarma, Caleb (August 16, 2022). "WHITE EXTREMISTS HAVE FOUND THEIR GUY FOR THE SENATE: BLAKE MASTERS". Vanity Fair. Retrieved September 29, 2022.
  114. ^ "The Sean Hannity Show: Meet Blake Masters - September 13th, Hour 2 on Apple Podcasts". Apple Podcasts. Retrieved October 12, 2022.
  115. ^ "Chuck Norris Endorses Blake Masters". Twitter. Retrieved November 4, 2022.
  116. ^ Tuccille, J. D. (October 14, 2022). "In Arizona, Libertarian Party Senate Candidate Polls at 15 Percent". Reason.com. Retrieved October 27, 2022.
  117. ^ "LAW ENFORCEMENT BACKS REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES". Retrieved September 29, 2022.
  118. ^ "Endorsed Candidates". Campaign for Working Families. Retrieved September 26, 2022.
  119. ^ "CAP Action's Endorsements for the 2022 General Election!" (PDF). Center for Arizona Policy Action. Retrieved September 26, 2022.
  120. ^ "FreedomWorks for America Endorses Blake Masters in Arizona U.S. Senate Race". August 3, 2022. Retrieved August 11, 2022.
  121. ^ "Arizona's Small Businesses Endorse Blake Masters for U.S. Senate". September 22, 2022. Retrieved September 29, 2022.
  122. ^ "NRA-PVF - Grades - Arizona". nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on November 8, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link)
  123. ^ "National Right to Life Endorses Blake Masters in Arizona Senate Race". Retrieved September 29, 2022.
  124. ^ "Defend Freedom. Defeat Mark Kelly". NRA-PVF.
  125. ^ "Why You and Other Arizonans should vote for Blake Masters". The Conservative Caucus.
  126. ^ "ENDORSEMENTS". Turning Point Action. Retrieved September 26, 2022.
  127. ^ "2022 General Election Statewide Canvass" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved December 5, 2022.
  128. ^ Results. docs.google.com (Report).

External links[edit]

Official campaign websites