THC Science

2020 Florida Senate election
20 of the 40 seats in the Florida Senate; 21 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	38.62%
	Results:; Republican gain; Republican hold Democratic hold; No election
President before election; Bill Galvano; Republican	Elected President ; Wilton Simpson; Republican

The 2020 elections for the Florida Senate took place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, to elect state senators from 20 of 40 districts. The Republican Party has held a Senate majority since 1995. The result was a one-seat gain for the Republicans, thus maintaining their majority.^[1]

The elections for U.S. President, U.S. House of Representatives, and the Florida House of Representatives were also held on this date.^[2]

Republican operatives, supported by Florida Power & Light,^[3] ran sham ghost candidates in three races. In District 37, former senator Frank Artiles had Alex Rodriguez placed on the ballot to successfully siphon votes from Senator José Javier Rodríguez.^[4] Both Artiles and Alex Rodriguez were charged and fined for electoral fraud.^[5]

Competitive races[edit]

The most competitive races are expected to be the Democratic-held open Senate District 3 in North Florida, the Republican-held open District 9 to the northeast of Orlando, the special election in the Tampa area's open Republican-held District 20, the Democratic-held Senate District 37 in South Florida, and the Republican-held open District 39 in South Florida.^[6]^[7]

2016 Presidential Results^[8] and 2020 Candidates in Competitive Races:

Senate district	Clinton 2016 vote share	Trump 2016 vote share	2020 Democratic nominee	2020 Republican nominee
District 3	52.60% Clinton	43.95% Trump	Loranne Ausley	Marva Harris Preston
District 9	45.98% Clinton	49.87% Trump	Patricia Sigman	Jason Brodeur
District 20	43.99% Clinton	52.28% Trump	Kathy Lewis	Danny Burgess
District 37	59.55% Clinton	37.89% Trump	José Javier Rodríguez	Ileana Garcia
District 39	53.74% Clinton	43.49% Trump	Javier Fernandez	Ana Maria Rodriguez

Overview[edit]

Party		Votes	%	Seats

Party		Votes	%	Total before	Up	Won	Total after	+/−
	Republican Party of Florida	2,663,076	49.03	23	10	11	24	+1
	Florida Democratic Party	2,642,318	48.65	17	10	9	16	-1
	Independent	125,497	2.31	0	0	0	0	-
	Write-in	603	0.01	0	0	0	0	-
Total		5,431,494	100.00	40	20	20	40	±0
Source: Florida Division of Elections^[9]^[10]

Popular vote

Republican			49.03%
Democratic			48.65%
Other			2.32%

House seats

Republican			60%
Democratic			40%

Closest races[edit]

Seats where the margin of victory was under 10%:

District 37, 0.02% gain
District 9, 2.7%
District 3, 6.8%
District 20, 9.6%

Predictions[edit]

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[11]	Lean R	October 21, 2020

Primary election polling[edit]

District 27 - Republican[edit]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Heather Fitzhagen	Ray Rodriguez	Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics	July 28, 2020	463 (LV)	± 4.6%	18%	59%	23%
Remington Research Group/Heather Fitzhagen^[A]	July 20, 2020	1,229 (LV)	± 3%	22%	44%	34%
Remington Research Group/Heather Fitzhagen^[A]	June 18–19, 2020	460 (LV)	± 4.5%	34%	24%	42%

District 29 - Democratic[edit]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Tina Polsky	Irving "Irv" Slosberg	Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics	August 14, 2020	477 (LV)	± 4.5%	49%	37%	13%

District 39 - Democratic[edit]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Javier E. Fernandez	Daniel "Dan" Horton-Diaz	Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics	August 1–2, 2020	203 (LV)	± 6.9%	24%	16%	61%

Retiring incumbents[edit]

Democrats[edit]

3rd district: Bill Montford (term-limited)
29th district: Kevin Rader (retiring)
35th district: Oscar Braynon (term-limited)

Republicans[edit]

5th district: Rob Bradley (term-limited)
9th district: David H. Simmons (term-limited)
21st district: Bill Galvano (term-limited)
27th district: Lizbeth Benacquisto (term-limited)
39th district: Anitere Flores (term-limited)

General election polling[edit]

District 3[edit]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Loranne Ausley (D)	Marva Preston (R)	Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics	October 17–18, 2020	948 (LV)	–	51%	44%	5%
ALG Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC^[B]	October 15, 2020	503 (V)	–	48%	40%	–

District 9[edit]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Jason Brodeur (R)	Patricia Sigman (D)	Jestine Ianotti (I)	Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics	October 31 – November 1, 2020	522 (LV)	± 4.3%	42%	49%	2%	7%
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics	October 17–18, 2020	490 (LV)	± 4.4%	43%	52%	–	5%
GQR Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC^[C]	October 16, 2020	400 (V)	–	42%	42%	–	–

District 20[edit]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Danny Burgess (R)	Kathy Lewis (D)	Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics	October 24–25, 2020	644 (LV)	± 3.9%	45%	44%	12%

District 37[edit]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	José Javier Rodríguez (D)	Ileana Garcia (R)
SEA Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC^[D]	October 13, 2020	400 (V)	–	42%	37%

District 39[edit]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Ana Maria Rodriguez (R)	Javier Fernandez (D)
GQR Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC^[E]	October 9, 2020	503 (V)	–	43%	43%
Tyson Group/Let's Preserve the American Dream PAC	September 8–11, 2020	– (V)^[b]	–	37%	31%
Tyson Group/Let's Preserve the American Dream PAC	July, 2020	– (V)^[c]	–	31%	28%

Results[edit]

District 1 • District 3 • District 5 • District 7 • District 9 • District 11 • District 13 • District 15 • District 17 • District 19 • District 20 • District 21 • District 23 • District 25 • District 27 • District 29 • District 31 • District 35 • District 37 • District 39

^[12]

District 1[edit]

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Douglas V. Broxson	185,380	65.3%
	Democratic	Karen M. Butler	98,407	34.7%
Total votes			293,787	100%
	Republican hold

District 3[edit]

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Loranne Ausley	137,609	53.4%
	Republican	Marva Harris Preston	120,176	46.6%
Total votes			257,785	100%
	Democratic hold

District 5[edit]

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Jennifer Bradley	194,198	74.8%
	Democratic	Stacey L. Peters	65,568	25.2%
Total votes			259,766	100%
	Republican hold

District 7[edit]

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Travis J. Hutson	212,577	61.7%
	Democratic	Heather Hunter	131,763	38.3%
	Independent	Richard Dembinsky (Write in)	13	0.0%
Total votes			344,353	100%
	Republican hold

District 9[edit]

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Jason Brodeur	141,544	50.3%
	Democratic	Patricia Sigman	133,900	47.6%
	Independent	Jestine Iannotti	5,787	2.1%
Total votes			281,231	100%
	Republican hold

District 11[edit]

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Randolph Bracy	147,244	65.0%
	Republican	Joshua Eli Adams	79,224	35.0%
Total votes			226,468	100%
	Democratic hold

District 13[edit]

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Linda Stewart	152,769	60.6%
	Republican	Josh Anderson	99,134	39.4%
Total votes			251,903	100%
	Democratic hold

District 15[edit]

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Victor M. Torres	180,185	57.1%
	Republican	Louis T. Minnis	123,153	39.0%
	Independent	Mike James	12,207	3.9%
Total votes			315,545	100%
	Democratic hold

District 17[edit]

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Debbie Mayfield	193,560	60.6%
	Democratic	Scot Fretwell	114,515	35.9%
	Independent	Phillip Snyder	11,323	3.5%
Total votes			319,398	100%
	Republican hold

District 19[edit]

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Darryl Ervin Rouson	174,343	68.7%
	Independent	Christina Paylan	79,463	31.3%
Total votes			253,806	100%
	Democratic hold

District 20[edit]

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Danny Burgess	141,607	54.8%
	Democratic	Kathy Lewis	116,685	45.2%
Total votes			258,292	100%
	Republican hold

District 21[edit]

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Jim Boyd	191,673	61.0%
	Democratic	Anthony "Tony" Eldon	122,480	39.0%
Total votes			314,153	100%
	Republican hold

District 23[edit]

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Joe Gruters	188,126	57.7%
	Democratic	Katherine Norman	131,491	40.3%
	Independent	Robert Kaplan	6,696	2.1%
Total votes			326,313	100%
	Republican hold

District 25[edit]

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Gayle Harrell	168,063	58.7
	Democratic	Corinna Robinson	118,211	41.3
Total votes			286,274	100.0
	Republican hold

District 27[edit]

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Ray Rodrigues	176,954	60.5%
	Democratic	Rachel Brown	115,537	39.5%
Total votes			292,491	100%
	Republican hold

District 29[edit]

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Tina Polsky	156,441	55.7%
	Republican	Brian Norton	124,502	44.3%
Total votes			280,943	100%
	Democratic hold

District 31[edit]

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Lori Berman	156,495	62.2%
	Republican	Tami Donnally	95,019	37.8%
Total votes			251,514	100%
	Democratic hold

District 35[edit]

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Shevrin "Shev" Jones	188,942	99.7%
	Independent	Darien Hill (Write in)	590	0.3%
Total votes			189,532	100%
	Democratic hold

District 37[edit]

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Ileana Garcia	104,630	48.53%
	Democratic	José Javier Rodríguez (Incumbent)	104,598	48.51%
	Independent	Alex Rodriguez	6,382	2.96%
Total votes			215,610	100%
	Republican gain from Democratic

District 39[edit]

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Ana Maria Rodriguez	123,556	55.6%
	Democratic	Javier E. Fernandez	95,135	42.8%
	Independent	Celso D. Alfonso	3,639	1.6%
Total votes			222,330	100%
	Republican hold

Notes[edit]

^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
^ Not yet released
^ Not yet released

Partisan clients

^ ^a ^b Poll sponsored by Fitzhagen's campaign
^ The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Ausley prior to the sampling period
^ The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Sigman prior to the sampling period
^ The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Javier Rodriguez prior to the sampling period
^ The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Fernandez prior to the sampling period

References[edit]

^ "Florida State Senate elections, 2020". Ballotpedia. Retrieved December 3, 2020.
^ "Florida 2020 General Election".
^ Martin, Jason Garcia, Annie (December 2, 2021). "Florida Power & Light execs worked closely with consultants behind 'ghost' candidate scheme, records reveal | Special Report". orlandosentinel.com. Retrieved December 2, 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
^ Fox, Greg (August 5, 2021). "Deception and dark money: Court documents show scheme of ghost candidates in Florida senate races". WESH. Retrieved December 2, 2021.
^ Harper, Mark. "Florida Senate 'ghost' candidate Alex Rodriguez faces $20,000 ethics fine". Daytona Beach News-Journal Online. Retrieved December 2, 2021.
^ Call, James. "Barack Obama weighs in on Florida Senate races; endorses Ausley for North Florida seat". Tallahassee Democrat. USA Today Network. Retrieved September 26, 2020.
^ Wilson, Kirby. "Florida Democrat: I can lift Biden and flip state Senate. Why won't my party help?". Tampa Bay Times. Retrieved September 26, 2020.
^ "Florida 2016 pres-by-sd.xlsx". Google Docs (Cited in Tampa Bay Times). Tampa Bay Times. Retrieved September 26, 2020.
^ "Election Results Data Extract Utility". results.elections.myflorida.com. Retrieved December 3, 2020.
^ "Voter Registration - By County and Party - Division of Elections - Florida Department of State". dos.myflorida.com. Retrieved December 3, 2020.
^ "October Overview: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 1, 2020.
^ "2020 Florida State Senate Election Results". results.elections.myflorida.com.

External links[edit]

Florida Elections Commission government website
"League of Women Voters of Florida". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
Florida at Ballotpedia
Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Florida", Voting & Elections Toolkits
"Florida: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
"Florida 2019 & 2020 Elections", OpenSecrets

[key-12] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[18] Not yet released

[19] Not yet released

[Fitzhagen-13] Poll sponsored by Fitzhagen's campaign

[14] The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Ausley prior to the sampling period

[15] The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Sigman prior to the sampling period

[16] The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Javier Rodriguez prior to the sampling period

[17] The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Fernandez prior to the sampling period

[1] "Florida State Senate elections, 2020". Ballotpedia. Retrieved December 3, 2020.

[2] "Florida 2020 General Election".

[3] Martin, Jason Garcia, Annie (December 2, 2021). "Florida Power & Light execs worked closely with consultants behind 'ghost' candidate scheme, records reveal | Special Report". orlandosentinel.com. Retrieved December 2, 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)

[4] Fox, Greg (August 5, 2021). "Deception and dark money: Court documents show scheme of ghost candidates in Florida senate races". WESH. Retrieved December 2, 2021.

[5] Harper, Mark. "Florida Senate 'ghost' candidate Alex Rodriguez faces $20,000 ethics fine". Daytona Beach News-Journal Online. Retrieved December 2, 2021.

[6] Call, James. "Barack Obama weighs in on Florida Senate races; endorses Ausley for North Florida seat". Tallahassee Democrat. USA Today Network. Retrieved September 26, 2020.

[7] Wilson, Kirby. "Florida Democrat: I can lift Biden and flip state Senate. Why won't my party help?". Tampa Bay Times. Retrieved September 26, 2020.

[8] "Florida 2016 pres-by-sd.xlsx". Google Docs (Cited in Tampa Bay Times). Tampa Bay Times. Retrieved September 26, 2020.

[9] "Election Results Data Extract Utility". results.elections.myflorida.com. Retrieved December 3, 2020.

[10] "Voter Registration - By County and Party - Division of Elections - Florida Department of State". dos.myflorida.com. Retrieved December 3, 2020.

[cook-october-11] "October Overview: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 1, 2020.

[20] "2020 Florida State Senate Election Results". results.elections.myflorida.com.

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Current members of the Florida Senate
President Kathleen Passidomo (R) President pro tempore Dennis Baxley (R) Majority Leader Ben Albritton (R) Minority Leader Lauren Book (D)
▌Doug Broxson (R) ▌Jay Trumbull (R) ▌Corey Simon (R) ▌Clay Yarborough (R) ▌Tracie Davis (D) ▌Jennifer Bradley (R) ▌Travis Hutson (R) ▌Tom A. Wright (R) ▌Keith Perry (R) ▌Jason Brodeur (R) ▌Blaise Ingoglia (R) ▌Colleen Burton (R) ▌Dennis Baxley (R) ▌Jay Collins (R) ▌Geraldine Thompson (D) ▌Darryl Rouson (D) ▌Linda Stewart (D) ▌Nick DiCeglie (R) ▌Debbie Mayfield (R) ▌Jim Boyd (R) ▌Ed Hooper (R) ▌Joe Gruters (R) ▌Danny Burgess (R) ▌Bobby Powell (D) ▌Victor M. Torres Jr. (D) ▌Lori Berman (D) ▌Ben Albritton (R) ▌Kathleen Passidomo (R) ▌Erin Grall (R) ▌Tina Polsky (D) ▌Gayle Harrell (R) ▌Rosalind Osgood (D) ▌Jonathan Martin (R) ▌Shevrin Jones (D) ▌Lauren Book (D) ▌Ileana Garcia (R) ▌Jason Pizzo (D) ▌Alexis Calatayud (R) ▌Bryan Avila (R) ▌Ana Maria Rodriguez (R)
▌Republican (28) ▌Democratic (12) Florida Legislature Florida House of Representatives Florida Senate

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Related	Gerrymandering Postal voting Russian interference Voter suppression

Competitive races[edit]

Overview[edit]

Closest races[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Primary election polling[edit]

District 27 - Republican[edit]

District 29 - Democratic[edit]

District 39 - Democratic[edit]

Retiring incumbents[edit]

Democrats[edit]

Republicans[edit]

General election polling[edit]

District 3[edit]

District 9[edit]

District 20[edit]

District 37[edit]

District 39[edit]

Results[edit]

District 1[edit]

District 3[edit]

District 5[edit]

District 7[edit]

District 9[edit]

District 11[edit]

District 13[edit]

District 15[edit]

District 17[edit]

District 19[edit]

District 20[edit]

District 21[edit]

District 23[edit]

District 25[edit]

District 27[edit]

District 29[edit]

District 31[edit]

District 35[edit]

District 37[edit]

District 39[edit]

Notes[edit]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

External links[edit]