THC Science

Statewide polls for the 2012 United States presidential election are as follows. The polls listed here, by state, are from 2009 to December 31, 2011 and provide early data on opinion polling between a possible Republican candidate against incumbent President Barack Obama.

Note that some states did not conduct polling before December 31, 2011.

Arizona[edit]

11 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 55%–44%
(Republican in 2008) 53%–45%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
Public Policy Polling	November 17–20, 2011	Barack Obama	46%	Herman Cain	42%	4	500 RV	±4.4%
		Barack Obama	45%	Newt Gingrich	45%	Tied
		Barack Obama	43%	Ron Paul	44%	1
		Barack Obama	47%	Rick Perry	40%	7
		Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	49%	7
BRC/Rocky Mountain Poll	October 13–24, 2011	Barack Obama	45%	Herman Cain	38%	7	581 RV	±4.1%
			45%	Mitt Romney	40%	5
			44%	Rick Perry	38%	6
Public Policy Polling	April 28 – May 1, 2011	Barack Obama	47%	Newt Gingrich	40%	7	623 RV	±3.9%
			46%	Mike Huckabee	44%	2
			49%	Sarah Palin	38%	11
		Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	48%	4
		Barack Obama	48%	Donald Trump	36%	12
Public Policy Polling	January 28–30, 2011	Barack Obama	46%	Newt Gingrich	46%	Tied	599 RV	±4.0%
		Barack Obama	44%	Mike Huckabee	48%	4
		Barack Obama	49%	Sarah Palin	41%	8
		Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	49%	6
Public Policy Polling	September 18–21, 2009	Barack Obama	47%	Sarah Palin	47%	Tied	617 RV	±3.9%
		Barack Obama	45%	Mike Huckabee	49%	4
		Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	50%	7

Arkansas[edit]

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 54%–45%
(Republican in 2008) 59%–39%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
Talk Business/Hendrix College	September 15, 2011	Barack Obama	33.5%	Mitt Romney	49.5%	16	2,101 RV	±2.1%

California[edit]

55 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 54%–45%
(Democratic in 2008) 61%–37%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
Field Research Corporation (Field Poll)	November 15–27, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Mitt Romney	40%	10	1,000 RV	±3.1%
Field Research Corporation (Field Poll)	November 15–27, 2011	Barack Obama	55%	Newt Gingrich	35%	20	1,000 RV	±3.1%
Public Policy Polling	November 10–13, 2011	Barack Obama	60%	Michele Bachmann	31%	29	500 RV	±4.4%
			61%	Herman Cain	32%	29
			60%	Newt Gingrich	34%	26
			57%	Ron Paul	32%	25
			60%	Rick Perry	31%	29
			57%	Mitt Romney	36%	21
Survey USA	November 10, 2011	Barack Obama	56%	Newt Gingrich	32%	24	800 A	±3.5%
Survey USA	November 10, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Mitt Romney	39%	11	800 A	±3.5%
Field Research Corporation (Field Poll)	September 1–12, 2011	Barack Obama	51%	Mitt Romney	38%	13	1,001 RV	±3.2%
Field Research Corporation (Field Poll)	September 1–12, 2011	Barack Obama	54%	Rick Perry	35%	19	1,001 RV	±3.2%
L.A. Times/USC Dornsife/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner	August 17–28, 2011	Barack Obama	56%	Rick Perry	32%	24	1,408 RV	±4%
			57%	Michele Bachmann	31%	26
			54%	Mitt Romney	35%	19
Public Policy Polling	January 28–30, 2011	Barack Obama	58%	Newt Gingrich	34%	24	892 RV	±3.3%
			54%	Mike Huckabee	39%	15
			62%	Sarah Palin	31%	31
			56%	Mitt Romney	36%	20

Colorado[edit]

9 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 52%–47%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–45%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
Public Policy Polling	December 1–4, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Newt Gingrich	42%	8	793	±3.5%
			52%	Herman Cain	36%	16
			48%	Ron Paul	39%	9
			52%	Rick Perry	37%	15
			47%	Mitt Romney	45%	2
Public Policy Polling^{[permanent dead link]}	August 4–7, 2011	Barack Obama	51%	Michele Bachmann	39%	12	510	±4.3%
			51%	Herman Cain	35%	16
			54%	Sarah Palin	38%	16
			51%	Rick Perry	38%	13
			48%	Mitt Romney	41%	7
Public Policy Polling	February 4–6, 2011	Barack Obama	53%	Newt Gingrich	39%	14	517	±4.3%
			51%	Mike Huckabee	42%	9
			55%	Sarah Palin	36%	19
			47%	Mitt Romney	41%	6

Connecticut[edit]

7 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 54%–44%
(Democratic in 2008) 61%–38%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
Public Policy Polling	September 22–25, 2011	Barack Obama	55%	Michele Bachmann	36%	19	592 RV	±4.0%
			54%	Newt Gingrich	38%	16
			53%	Rick Perry	41%	12
			47%	Mitt Romney	45%	2
Quinnipiac University	September 8–13, 2011	Barack Obama	52%	Rick Perry	33%	19	1,230 RV	±2.8%
Quinnipiac University	September 8–13, 2011	Barack Obama	49%	Mitt Romney	36%	13	1,230 RV	±2.8%

Florida[edit]

29 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 52%–47%
(Democratic in 2008) 51%–48%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample size	Margin of error
NBC News/Marist College	December 4–7, 2011	Barack Obama	48%	Mitt Romney	41%	7	2,119	±2.1%
			51%	Newt Gingrich	39%	12
			49%	Ron Paul	36%	13
Quinnipiac University	November 28 – December 5, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	45%	3	1,226	±2.8%
Quinnipiac University	November 28 – December 5, 2011	Barack Obama	46%	Newt Gingrich	44%	2	1,226	±2.8%
Public Policy Polling	November 28 – December 1, 2011	Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	44%	1	700	±3.7%
			50%	Newt Gingrich	44%	6
			51%	Herman Cain	37%	14
			46%	Rick Perry	40%	6
			50%	Ron Paul	38%	12
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	November 17, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	46%	4	500 LV	±4.5%
		Barack Obama	46%	Herman Cain	37%	9
		Barack Obama	45%	Newt Gingrich	43%	2
Quinnipiac University	October 31 – November 7, 2011	Barack Obama	45%	Herman Cain	41%	4	1,185 RV	±2.9%
			45%	Newt Gingrich	42%	3
			46%	Rick Perry	40%	6
		Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	45%	3
Suffolk University	October 26–30, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Herman Cain	39%	3	800 RV	Not reported
			46%	Rick Perry	34%	8
			44%	Ron Paul	32%	12
			45%	Newt Gingrich	38%	7
		Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	42%	Tied
NBC News/Marist College	October 10–12, 2011	Barack Obama	47%	Herman Cain	41%	6	2,225	±2.1%
			47%	Rick Perry	39%	8
			45%	Mitt Romney	43%	2
Public Policy Polling	September 22–25, 2011	Barack Obama	49%	Michele Bachmann	44%	5	476	±4.5%
			50%	Newt Gingrich	42%	8
			45%	Ron Paul	44%	1
			50%	Rick Perry	43%	7
			46%	Mitt Romney	45%	1
Quinnipiac University	September 14–19, 2011	Barack Obama	44%	Rick Perry	42%	2	1,007	±3.1%
Quinnipiac University	September 14–19, 2011	Barack Obama	40%	Mitt Romney	47%	7	1,007	±3.1%
Quinnipiac University	August 1–2, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Michele Bachmann	38%	12	743 RV	±3.6%
			53%	Sarah Palin	34%	19
			44%	Rick Perry	39%	5
		Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	44%	Tied
Quinnipiac University	July 27–31, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Michele Bachmann	36%	14	674 RV	±3.8%
			54%	Sarah Palin	33%	21
			49%	Rick Perry	36%	13
			46%	Mitt Romney	41%	5
Sunshine State News/Voter Survey Service	July 5–7, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	46%	4	1,000 LV	±3.10%
Public Policy Polling	June 16–19, 2011	Barack Obama	49%	Michele Bachmann	40%	9	848 RV	±3.4%
			48%	Herman Cain	37%	11
			52%	Sarah Palin	40%	12
			48%	Tim Pawlenty	40%	8
			47%	Mitt Romney	43%	4
Suffolk University/7 News Archived 2011-11-28 at the Wayback Machine	April 10–12, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	43%	1	600 RV	±4.0%
		Barack Obama	44%	Mike Huckabee	41%	3
			41%	Tim Pawlenty	28%	13
			45%	Michele Bachmann	30%	15
			47%	Newt Gingrich	36%	11
			52%	Sarah Palin	34%	18
			49%	Donald Trump	34%	15
			47%	Haley Barbour	26%	17
			48%	Ron Paul	30%	18
Ron Sachs Communications/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research	April 4–7, 2011	Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	48%	5	800 RV	±3.5%
		Barack Obama	44%	Mike Huckabee	49%	5
		Barack Obama	51%	Sarah Palin	39%	12
		Barack Obama	48%	Donald Trump	40%	8
Public Policy Polling	March 24–27, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Newt Gingrich	42%	8	500 RV	±4.4%
			50%	Mike Huckabee	43%	7
			52%	Sarah Palin	39%	13
			46%	Mitt Romney	44%	2
			48%	Jeb Bush	45%	3
			48%	Rudy Giuliani	42%	6
Public Policy Polling	December 17–20, 2010	Barack Obama	47%	Newt Gingrich	42%	5	1,034 RV	±3.0%
			49%	Mike Huckabee	44%	5
			52%	Sarah Palin	38%	14
			46%	Mitt Romney	44%	2
			48%	Marco Rubio	40%	8

Georgia[edit]

16 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 58%–41%
(Republican in 2008) 52%–47%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research	December 12–14, 2011	Barack Obama	41%	Newt Gingrich	50%	9	625	±4.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research	December 12–14, 2011	Barack Obama	38%	Mitt Romney	55%	17	625	±4.0%
SurveyUSA	December 6–7, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Newt Gingrich	48%	6	1,176	±2.9%
SurveyUSA	December 6–7, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	49%	7	1,176	±2.9%
Public Policy Polling	March 31 – April 3, 2011	Barack Obama	46%	Newt Gingrich	45%	1	790 RV	±3.5%
		Barack Obama	45%	Mike Huckabee	48%	3
		Barack Obama	48%	Sarah Palin	43%	5
		Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	46%	3
		Barack Obama	44%	Herman Cain	39%	5

Hawaii[edit]

4 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 54%–45%
(Democratic in 2008) 72%–27%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
Public Policy Polling	October 13–16, 2011	Barack Obama	64%	Michele Bachmann	28%	36	568 RV	±4.1%
			63%	Herman Cain	30%	33
			64%	Newt Gingrich	27%	37
			63%	Rick Perry	28%	35
			59%	Mitt Romney	32%	27

Illinois[edit]

20 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 55%–45%
(Democratic in 2008) 62%–37%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
Paul Simon Public Policy Institute (Southern Illinois University)	October 11–16, 2011	Barack Obama	46.1%	Mitt Romney	38.5%	7.6	1,000 RV	±3%
	October 11–16, 2011	Barack Obama	49.3%	Ron Paul	30.3%	19	1,000 RV	±3%

Iowa[edit]

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 50%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–44%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
NBC News/Marist College	November 27–29, 2011	Barack Obama	48%	Rick Perry	37%	11	1,393	±2.6%
			46%	Mitt Romney	39%	7
			54%	Michele Bachmann	31%	23
			47%	Newt Gingrich	37%	10
			50%	Herman Cain	32%	18
		Barack Obama	42%	Ron Paul	42%	Tied
Public Policy Polling	October 7–10, 2011	Barack Obama	49%	Michele Bachmann	39%	10	749 RV	±3.6%
			47%	Herman Cain	41%	6
			50%	Newt Gingrich	39%	11
			47%	Ron Paul	40%	7
			49%	Rick Perry	39%	10
			46%	Mitt Romney	42%	4
NBC News/Marist College	October 3–5, 2011	Barack Obama	46%	Rick Perry	37%	9	2,836 RV	±1.8%
NBC News/Marist College	October 3–5, 2011	Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	40%	3	2,836 RV	±1.8%
Public Policy Polling	August 19–21, 2011	Barack Obama	51%	Michele Bachmann	34%	17	798 RV	±3.5%
			51%	Herman Cain	33%	18
			54%	Sarah Palin	33%	21
			51%	Rick Perry	38%	13
			49%	Mitt Romney	39%	10
Every Child Matters Fund/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research	July 5–7, 2011	Barack Obama	47%	Michele Bachmann	46%	1	629 LV	±3.9%
Every Child Matters Fund/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research	July 5–7, 2011	Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	47%	3	629 LV	±3.9%
Public Policy Polling	May 27–30, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Herman Cain	32%	18	1,387 RV	±2.6%
			54%	Newt Gingrich	33%	21
			55%	Sarah Palin	35%	20
			49%	Tim Pawlenty	37%	12
			49%	Mitt Romney	40%	9
Public Policy Polling	April 15–17, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Newt Gingrich	39%	11	1,109 RV	±2.9%
		Barack Obama	45%	Mike Huckabee	45%	Tied
		Barack Obama	53%	Sarah Palin	36%	17
			45%	Mitt Romney	41%	4
			51%	Donald Trump	35%	16
Public Policy Polling	January 7–9, 2011	Barack Obama	51%	Newt Gingrich	38%	13	1,077 RV	±3.0%
			47%	Mike Huckabee	43%	4
			53%	Sarah Palin	37%	16
			47%	Mitt Romney	41%	6

Kansas[edit]

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 62%–37%
(Republican in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
KWCH-TV Wichita/Survey USA	November 10, 2011	Barack Obama	35%	Newt Gingrich	52%	17	800 RV	±3.5%
KWCH-TV Wichita/Survey USA	November 10, 2011	Barack Obama	31%	Mitt Romney	56%	25	800 RV	±3.5%

Kentucky[edit]

8 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 60%–40%
(Republican in 2008) 57%–41%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
Public Policy Polling	August 25–28, 2011	Barack Obama	43%	Michele Bachmann	46%	3	600 RV	±4.0%
		Barack Obama	47%	Newt Gingrich	44%	3
		Barack Obama	48%	Sarah Palin	44%	4
		Barack Obama	42%	Rick Perry	49%	7
		Barack Obama	40%	Mitt Romney	48%	8

Louisiana[edit]

8 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 57%–42%
(Republican in 2008) 59%–40%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
Clarus Research Group	October 5–7, 2011	Barack Obama	37%	Mitt Romney	53%	16	602 RV	±4.0%
Clarus Research Group	October 5–7, 2011	Barack Obama	37%	Rick Perry	52%	15	602 RV	±4.0%
Public Policy Polling	July 17–19, 2009	Barack Obama	42%	Sarah Palin	49%	7	727 RV	±3.6%
Public Policy Polling	July 17–19, 2009	Barack Obama	40%	Bobby Jindal	54%	14	727 RV	±3.6%

Maine[edit]

4 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 53%–45%
(Democratic in 2008) 58%–40%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
Public Policy Polling	October 28–31, 2011	Barack Obama	55%	Michele Bachmann	35%	20	673 RV	±3.8%
			54%	Herman Cain	37%	17
			55%	Newt Gingrich	35%	20
			55%	Rick Perry	34%	21
			49%	Mitt Romney	38%	11
Bangor Daily News/Critical Insights	October 18–23, 2011	Barack Obama	41%	Mitt Romney	40%	1	600 RV	±4.0%
Bangor Daily News/Critical Insights	October 18–23, 2011	Barack Obama	46%	Rick Perry	32%	14	600 RV	±4.0%
Public Policy Polling	March 3–6, 2011	Barack Obama	53%	Newt Gingrich	37%	16	1,247 RV	±2.8%
			51%	Mike Huckabee	39%	12
			57%	Sarah Palin	35%	22
			49%	Mitt Romney	41%	8

Massachusetts[edit]

11 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 62%–37%
(Democratic in 2008) 62%–36%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
University of Massachusetts Amherst/YouGov	November 9–22, 2011	Barack Obama	54%	Rick Perry	23%	31	222 RV	Not reported
		Barack Obama	51%	Herman Cain	28%	23	228 RV	Not reported
		Barack Obama	49%	Mitt Romney	34%	15	446 RV	±4.6%
Public Policy Polling	September 16–18, 2011	Barack Obama	59%	Michele Bachmann	28%	31	791 RV	±3.5%
		Barack Obama	58%	Newt Gingrich	31%	27
		Barack Obama	55%	Ron Paul	30%	25
		Barack Obama	58%	Rick Perry	32%	26
		Barack Obama	53%	Mitt Romney	40%	13
Public Policy Polling	June 2–5, 2011	Barack Obama	60%	Herman Cain	27%	33	957 RV	±3.2%
		Barack Obama	63%	Newt Gingrich	27%	36
		Barack Obama	63%	Sarah Palin	27%	36
		Barack Obama	59%	Tim Pawlenty	28%	31
		Barack Obama	57%	Mitt Romney	37%	20
Public Policy Polling	November 29 – December 1, 2010	Barack Obama	57%	Newt Gingrich	33%	24	500 RV	±4.4%
		Barack Obama	57%	Mike Huckabee	33%	24
		Barack Obama	61%	Sarah Palin	32%	29
		Barack Obama	52%	Mitt Romney	43%	9

Michigan[edit]

16 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 51%–48%
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–41%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
Detroit Free Press/EPIC-MRA	November 13–16, 2011	Barack Obama	41%	Mitt Romney	46%	5	600 LV	±4%
		Barack Obama	45%	Newt Gingrich	40%	5
		Barack Obama	50%	Herman Cain	36%	14
SurveyUSA	October 12–14, 2011	Barack Obama	56%	Michele Bachmann	30%	26	500 LV	±4.5%
		Barack Obama	53%	Herman Cain	32%	21
		Barack Obama	54%	Newt Gingrich	31%	23
		Barack Obama	53%	Rick Perry	32%	21
		Barack Obama	50%	Mitt Romney	39%	11
Inside Michigan/Marketing Resource Group	Sept 14–19, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Rick Perry	39%	11	600 LV	±4%
Inside Michigan/Marketing Resource Group	Sept 14–19, 2011	Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	44%	Tied	600 LV	±4%
Public Policy Polling	July 21–24, 2011	Barack Obama	53%	Michele Bachmann	37%	16	593 RV	±4.0%
		Barack Obama	50%	Herman Cain	33%	17
		Barack Obama	54%	Sarah Palin	36%	18
		Barack Obama	50%	Rick Perry	35%	15
		Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	42%	5
		Barack Obama	50%	Thaddeus McCotter	31%	19
EPIC-MRA	July 9–11, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	46%	4	600 LV	±4.0%
Public Policy Polling	March 18–20, 2011	Barack Obama	53%	Newt Gingrich	37%	16	502 RV	±4.4%
		Barack Obama	50%	Mike Huckabee	41%	9
		Barack Obama	55%	Sarah Palin	35%	20
		Barack Obama	48%	Mitt Romney	41%	7
		Barack Obama	52%	Scott Walker	32%	20
EPIC-MRA	February 12–17, 2011	Barack Obama	41%	Mitt Romney	46%	5	600 LV	±4.0%
Public Policy Polling	December 3–6, 2010	Barack Obama	52%	Newt Gingrich	37%	15	1,224 RV	±2.8%
		Barack Obama	51%	Mike Huckabee	39%	12
		Barack Obama	56%	Sarah Palin	35%	21
		Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	43%	4
		Barack Obama	49%	Rick Snyder	38%	11

Minnesota[edit]

10 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 51%–48%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–44%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
KSTP-TV Minneapolis/SurveyUSA	November 2–6, 2011	Barack Obama	57%	Michele Bachmann	29%	28	543 RV	±4.3%
		Barack Obama	48%	Herman Cain	35%	13
		Barack Obama	48%	Rick Perry	35%	13
		Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	39%	6
KSTP-TV Minneapolis/SurveyUSA	June 15–17, 2011	Barack Obama	53%	Michele Bachmann	39%	14	558 RV	±4.2%
KSTP-TV Minneapolis/SurveyUSA	June 15–17, 2011	Barack Obama	46%	Tim Pawlenty	46%	Tied	558 RV	±4.2%
Public Policy Polling	May 27–30, 2011	Barack Obama	56%	Michele Bachmann	35%	21	1,179 RV	±2.9%
		Barack Obama	51%	Herman Cain	30%	21
		Barack Obama	54%	Newt Gingrich	36%	18
		Barack Obama	56%	Sarah Palin	36%	20
		Barack Obama	51%	Tim Pawlenty	43%	8
		Barack Obama	51%	Mitt Romney	36%	15
Public Policy Polling	December 4–5, 2010	Barack Obama	51%	Newt Gingrich	38%	13	949 RV	±3.2%
		Barack Obama	50%	Mike Huckabee	40%	10
		Barack Obama	54%	Sarah Palin	36%	18
		Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	42%	5
		Barack Obama	51%	Tim Pawlenty	43%	8
St. Cloud State University	October 24 – November 4, 2009	Barack Obama	49%	Tim Pawlenty	40%	9	550	±5.0%
Public Policy Polling^{[permanent dead link]}	July 7–8, 2009	Barack Obama	56%	Sarah Palin	35%	21	1,491	±2.5%
Public Policy Polling^{[permanent dead link]}	July 7–8, 2009	Barack Obama	51%	Tim Pawlenty	40%	11	1,491	±2.5%

Mississippi[edit]

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 59%–40%
(Republican in 2008) 56%–43%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
Public Policy Polling	November 4–6, 2011	Barack Obama	40%	Michele Bachmann	52%	12	796 RV	±3.5%
			37%	Herman Cain	54%	17
			38%	Newt Gingrich	54%	16
			37%	Ron Paul	52%	15
			38%	Rick Perry	55%	17
			36%	Mitt Romney	54%	18
Public Policy Polling	March 24–27, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Newt Gingrich	48%	6	817 RV	±3.4%
			40%	Mike Huckabee	54%	14
			44%	Sarah Palin	48%	4
			40%	Mitt Romney	46%	6
			41%	Haley Barbour	51%	10

Missouri[edit]

10 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 53%–46%
(Republican in 2008) 49%–49%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	November 9, 2011	Barack Obama	47%	Herman Cain	39%	8	500 LV	±4.5%
		Barack Obama	47%	Rick Perry	43%	4
		Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	45%	3
Public Policy Polling	September 9–12, 2011	Barack Obama	47%	Michele Bachmann	43%	4	632 RV	±3.9%
		Barack Obama	47%	Newt Gingrich	45%	2
		Barack Obama	45%	Rick Perry	47%	2
		Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	47%	4
Public Policy Polling	April 28 – May 1, 2011	Barack Obama	46%	Newt Gingrich	44%	2	555 RV	±3.9%
		Barack Obama	44%	Mike Huckabee	49%	5
		Barack Obama	48%	Sarah Palin	43%	5
		Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	45%	2
		Barack Obama	46%	Donald Trump	41%	5
Public Policy Polling	March 3–6, 2011	Barack Obama	44%	Newt Gingrich	44%	Tied	612 RV	±4.0%
		Barack Obama	43%	Mike Huckabee	49%	6
		Barack Obama	48%	Sarah Palin	43%	5
		Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	44%	1
Public Policy Polling	November 29 – December 1, 2010	Barack Obama	44%	Newt Gingrich	45%	1	515 RV	±4.3%
		Barack Obama	42%	Mike Huckabee	49%	7
		Barack Obama	46%	Sarah Palin	43%	3
		Barack Obama	41%	Mitt Romney	47%	6

Montana[edit]

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 59%–39%
(Republican in 2008) 49%–47%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
Public Policy Polling	November 28–30, 2011	Barack Obama	43%	Herman Cain	45%	2	1,625 RV	±2.4%
			42%	Newt Gingrich	50%	8
			40%	Ron Paul	48%	8
			40%	Mitt Romney	50%	10
			43%	Rick Perry	46%	3
Public Policy Polling	June 16–19, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Michele Bachmann	48%	6	819 RV	±3.4%
			41%	Herman Cain	46%	5
			44%	Sarah Palin	48%	4
			41%	Tim Pawlenty	45%	4
			41%	Mitt Romney	49%	8
Public Policy Polling	November 10–13, 2010	Barack Obama	44%	Newt Gingrich	46%	2	1,176 RV	±2.9%
			41%	Mike Huckabee	51%	10
			45%	Sarah Palin	47%	2
			39%	Mitt Romney	50%	11

Nebraska[edit]

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 66%–33%
(Republican in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
Public Policy Polling	September 30 – October 2, 2011	Barack Obama	41%	Michele Bachmann	49%	8	739 RV	±3.6%
		Barack Obama	41%	Newt Gingrich	48%	7
		Barack Obama	41%	Rick Perry	48%	7
		Barack Obama	38%	Mitt Romney	51%	13
Public Policy Polling	January 26–27, 2011	Barack Obama	40%	Newt Gingrich	48%	8	977 RV	±3.1%
		Barack Obama	38%	Mike Huckabee	51%	13
		Barack Obama	44%	Sarah Palin	45%	1
		Barack Obama	37%	Mitt Romney	49%	12

Nevada[edit]

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 51%–48%
(Democratic in 2008) 55%–43%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
Las Vegas Review Journal/University of Nevada Las Vegas	December 12–20, 2011	Barack Obama	45.7%	Mitt Romney	39.8%	5.9	600 RV	±4.0%
		Barack Obama	45.4%	Ron Paul	35.7%	9.7
		Barack Obama	47.3%	Newt Gingrich	35.4%	11.9
		Barack Obama	50.2%	Michele Bachmann	27.1%	23.1
		Barack Obama	48.8%	Jon Huntsman	30.1%	18.7
		Barack Obama	50.8%	Rick Perry	31.1%	19.7
		Barack Obama	49.3%	Rick Santorum	30.9%	18.4
Public Policy Polling	October 20–23, 2011	Barack Obama	49%	Michele Bachmann	41%	8	500 RV	±4.4%
		Barack Obama	49%	Herman Cain	46%	3
		Barack Obama	49%	Newt Gingrich	46%	3
		Barack Obama	51%	Rick Perry	41%	10
		Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	46%	Tied
Public Policy Polling	July 28–31, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Michele Bachmann	40%	10	601 RV	±4.0%
		Barack Obama	48%	Herman Cain	39%	9
		Barack Obama	51%	Sarah Palin	39%	12
		Barack Obama	49%	Rick Perry	40%	9
		Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	46%	1
Public Policy Polling	April 21–24, 2011	Barack Obama	46%	Newt Gingrich	42%	4	491 RV	±4.4%
		Barack Obama	45%	Mike Huckabee	43%	2
		Barack Obama	50%	Sarah Palin	39%	11
		Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	46%	3
		Barack Obama	47%	Donald Trump	41%	6
Public Policy Polling	January 3–5, 2011	Barack Obama	51%	Newt Gingrich	40%	11	932 RV	±3.2%
		Barack Obama	51%	Mike Huckabee	41%	10
		Barack Obama	52%	Sarah Palin	39%	13
		Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	46%	1

New Hampshire[edit]

4 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 50%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–45%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
NBC News/Marist College	November 28–30, 2011	Barack Obama	51%	Rick Perry	36%	15	1,144 RV	±2.9%
		Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	46%	3
		Barack Obama	53%	Michele Bachmann	33%	20
		Barack Obama	49%	Newt Gingrich	39%	10
		Barack Obama	53%	Herman Cain	30%	23
		Barack Obama	44%	Ron Paul	42%	2
WMUR/University of New Hampshire	November 15–20, 2011	Barack Obama	54%	Rick Perry	35%	19	606 LV	±4%
		Barack Obama	52%	Newt Gingrich	40%	12
		Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	47%	3
NBC News/Marist College	October 3–5, 2011	Barack Obama	46%	Rick Perry	40%	6	2,218 RV	±2.1%
NBC News/Marist College	October 3–5, 2011	Barack Obama	40%	Mitt Romney	49%	9	2,218 RV	±2.1%
Public Policy Polling	June 30 – July 5, 2011	Barack Obama	49%	Michele Bachmann	42%	7	662 RV	±3.8%
		Barack Obama	49%	Herman Cain	39%	10
		Barack Obama	53%	Sarah Palin	38%	15
		Barack Obama	48%	Tim Pawlenty	41%	7
		Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	46%	2
WMUR/University of New Hampshire	June 21 – July 1, 2011	Barack Obama	43%	Mitt Romney	47%	4	773 A	±3.5%
		Barack Obama	47%	Tim Pawlenty	38%	11
		Barack Obama	47%	Michele Bachmann	41%	6
Public Policy Polling	March 31 – April 3, 2011	Barack Obama	52%	Newt Gingrich	39%	13	769 RV	±3.5%
		Barack Obama	52%	Mike Huckabee	38%	14
		Barack Obama	56%	Sarah Palin	34%	22
		Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	46%	1
		Barack Obama	51%	Donald Trump	37%	14
Magellan Strategies	February 9–10, 2011	Barack Obama	48%	Mitt Romney	44%	4	789 LV	±3.49%
		Barack Obama	57%	Sarah Palin	34%	23
		Barack Obama	51%	Mike Huckabee	38%	13
		Barack Obama	56%	Newt Gingrich	33%	23

New Jersey[edit]

14 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 52%–46%
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
Public Policy Polling	January 6–9, 2011	Barack Obama	55%	Chris Christie	38%	17	520 RV	±4.3%
		Barack Obama	54%	Newt Gingrich	37%	17
		Barack Obama	53%	Mike Huckabee	36%	17
		Barack Obama	59%	Sarah Palin	29%	30
		Barack Obama	52%	Mitt Romney	37%	15

New Mexico[edit]

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 50%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
Public Policy Polling	December 10–12, 2011	Barack Obama	56%	Newt Gingrich	39%	17	500 RV	±4.4%
			56%	Michele Bachmann	36%	20
			51%	Ron Paul	38%	13
			53%	Mitt Romney	38%	15
			56%	Rick Perry	35%	21
Public Policy Polling	June 23–26, 2011	Barack Obama	52%	Michele Bachmann	37%	15	732 RV	±3.6%
			52%	Herman Cain	36%	16
			46%	Gary Johnson	43%	3
			56%	Sarah Palin	36%	20
			51%	Tim Pawlenty	36%	15
			49%	Mitt Romney	42%	7
Public Policy Polling	February 4–6, 2011	Barack Obama	56%	Newt Gingrich	35%	21	545 RV	±4.2%
			55%	Mike Huckabee	36%	19
			51%	Gary Johnson	36%	15
			62%	Sarah Palin	33%	29
			53%	Mitt Romney	37%	16

Three Way race

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Libertarian	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
Public Policy Polling	December 10–12, 2011	Barack Obama	45%	Newt Gingrich	28%	Gary Johnson	20%	17	500 RV	±4.4%
Public Policy Polling	December 10–12, 2011	Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	27%	Gary Johnson	23%	17	500 RV	±4.4%

New York[edit]

29 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 58%–40%
(Democratic in 2008) 63%–36%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
Siena College	November 8–13, 2011	Barack Obama	63%	Herman Cain	27%	36	803 RV	±3.5%
		Barack Obama	63%	Rick Perry	28%	35
		Barack Obama	59%	Mitt Romney	34%	25
		Barack Obama	64%	Michele Bachmann	27%	37
		Barack Obama	60%	Ron Paul	31%	29
Marist College	October 25–27, 2011	Barack Obama	62%	Herman Cain	31%	31	1,030 RV	±3.0%
		Barack Obama	64%	Rick Perry	29%	35
		Barack Obama	59%	Mitt Romney	35%	24
Siena College	October 10–12, 2011	Barack Obama	58%	Herman Cain	32%	26	800 RV	±3.5%
		Barack Obama	58%	Rick Perry	31%	27
		Barack Obama	55%	Mitt Romney	37%	18

North Carolina[edit]

15 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 56%–44%
(Democratic in 2008) 50%–49%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
Public Policy Polling	December 1–4, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Herman Cain	37%	13	865 RV	±3.3%
		Barack Obama	49%	Newt Gingrich	45%	4
		Barack Obama	47%	Ron Paul	42%	5
		Barack Obama	50%	Rick Perry	42%	8
		Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	46%	Tied
Public Policy Polling	October 27–31, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Michele Bachmann	42%	8	615 RV	±4.0%
		Barack Obama	47%	Herman Cain	44%	3
		Barack Obama	50%	Newt Gingrich	43%	7
		Barack Obama	48%	Ron Paul	40%	8
		Barack Obama	50%	Rick Perry	42%	8
		Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	46%	1
Public Policy Polling	September 30 – October 3, 2011	Barack Obama	49%	Michele Bachmann	42%	7	760 RV	±3.6%
		Barack Obama	45%	Chris Christie	46%	1
		Barack Obama	49%	Newt Gingrich	42%	7
		Barack Obama	46%	Ron Paul	43%	3
		Barack Obama	48%	Rick Perry	44%	4
		Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	45%	1
Public Policy Polling	September 1–4, 2011	Barack Obama	47%	Michele Bachmann	45%	2	520 RV	±4.3%
		Barack Obama	48%	Newt Gingrich	43%	5
		Barack Obama	49%	Sarah Palin	42%	7
		Barack Obama	46%	Rick Perry	46%	Tied
		Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	44%	1
Public Policy Polling^{[permanent dead link]}	August 4–7, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Michele Bachmann	40%	10	780 RV	±3.5%
		Barack Obama	50%	Herman Cain	37%	13
		Barack Obama	52%	Sarah Palin	39%	13
		Barack Obama	48%	Rick Perry	40%	8
		Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	43%	3
Public Policy Polling	July 7–10, 2011	Barack Obama	46%	Michele Bachmann	43%	3	651 RV	±3.8%
		Barack Obama	46%	Herman Cain	42%	4
		Barack Obama	50%	Sarah Palin	42%	8
		Barack Obama	46%	Tim Pawlenty	41%	5
		Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	45%	Tied
Public Policy Polling	June 8–11, 2011	Barack Obama	48%	Herman Cain	37%	11	563 RV	±4.1%
		Barack Obama	50%	Newt Gingrich	40%	10
		Barack Obama	52%	Sarah Palin	38%	14
		Barack Obama	47%	Tim Pawlenty	40%	7
		Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	44%	1
Public Policy Polling	May 12–15, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Newt Gingrich	42%	8	835 RV	±3.4%
		Barack Obama	47%	Mike Huckabee	46%	1
		Barack Obama	52%	Sarah Palin	40%	12
		Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	43%	3
		Barack Obama	52%	Donald Trump	35%	17
Public Policy Polling	April 14–17, 2011	Barack Obama	49%	Newt Gingrich	45%	4	507 RV	±4.4%
		Barack Obama	48%	Mike Huckabee	47%	1
		Barack Obama	52%	Sarah Palin	40%	12
		Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	44%	3
		Barack Obama	51%	Donald Trump	39%	12
Public Policy Polling	March 17–20, 2011	Barack Obama	47%	Newt Gingrich	42%	5	584 RV	±4.1%
		Barack Obama	45%	Mike Huckabee	45%	Tied
		Barack Obama	51%	Sarah Palin	40%	11
		Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	42%	2
Public Policy Polling	February 16–21, 2011	Barack Obama	48%	Newt Gingrich	44%	4	650 RV	±3.8%
		Barack Obama	46%	Mike Huckabee	47%	1
		Barack Obama	51%	Sarah Palin	41%	10
		Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	44%	3
Public Policy Polling	January 20–23, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Newt Gingrich	44%	6	575 RV	±4.1%
		Barack Obama	49%	Mike Huckabee	45%	4
		Barack Obama	50%	Sarah Palin	41%	9
		Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	44%	3
Public Policy Polling	December 17–19, 2010	Barack Obama	48%	Newt Gingrich	42%	6	520 RV	±4.3%
		Barack Obama	45%	Mike Huckabee	46%	1
		Barack Obama	52%	Sarah Palin	38%	14
		Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	43%	3
Public Policy Polling	November 19–21, 2010	Barack Obama	46%	Newt Gingrich	45%	1	517 RV	±4.3%
		Barack Obama	44%	Mike Huckabee	48%	4
		Barack Obama	48%	Sarah Palin	43%	5
		Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	44%	Tied
Public Policy Polling^{[permanent dead link]}	July 10–12, 2009	Barack Obama	49%	Sarah Palin	42%	7	767 RV	±3.5%

Ohio[edit]

18 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 51%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 52%–47%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
Quinnipiac University	November 28 – December 5, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	43%	1	1,437 RV	±2.6%
Quinnipiac University	November 28 – December 5, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Newt Gingrich	43%	1	1,437 RV	±2.6%
Quinnipiac University	October 31 – November 7, 2011	Barack Obama	48%	Herman Cain	38%	10	1,312 RV	±2.7%
		Barack Obama	49%	Newt Gingrich	37%	12
		Barack Obama	48%	Rick Perry	36%	12
		Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	42%	3
Public Policy Polling	November 4–6, 2011	Barack Obama	51%	Michele Bachmann	37%	14	1,022 RV	±3.1%
		Barack Obama	50%	Herman Cain	39%	11
		Barack Obama	51%	Newt Gingrich	38%	13
		Barack Obama	50%	Ron Paul	36%	14
		Barack Obama	53%	Rick Perry	36%	17
		Barack Obama	50%	Mitt Romney	41%	9
Quinnipiac University	October 17–23, 2011	Barack Obama	47%	Rick Perry	36%	11	1,668 RV	±2.4%
		Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	41%	4
		Barack Obama	47%	Herman Cain	39%	8
Public Policy Polling	October 13–16, 2011	Barack Obama	49%	Michele Bachmann	40%	9	581 RV	±4.1%
		Barack Obama	48%	Herman Cain	45%	3
		Barack Obama	51%	Newt Gingrich	40%	11
		Barack Obama	50%	Rick Perry	41%	9
		Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	46%	Tied
Quinnipiac University	September 22–25, 2011	Barack Obama	44%	Rick Perry	41%	3	1,301 RV	±2.7%
Quinnipiac University	September 22–25, 2011	Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	42%	2	1,301 RV	±2.7%
Public Policy Polling	August 11–14, 2011	Barack Obama	48%	Michele Bachmann	41%	7	792 RV	±3.5%
		Barack Obama	47%	Herman Cain	39%	8
		Barack Obama	51%	Sarah Palin	38%	13
		Barack Obama	45%	Rick Perry	41%	4
		Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	43%	2
Quinnipiac University	July 12–18, 2011	Barack Obama	49%	Michele Bachmann	36%	13	563 RV	±4.1%
		Barack Obama	51%	Sarah Palin	35%	16
		Barack Obama	47%	Rick Perry	35%	12
		Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	41%	4
Public Policy Polling	March 10–13, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Newt Gingrich	38%	12	559 RV	±4.1%
		Barack Obama	48%	Mike Huckabee	41%	7
		Barack Obama	52%	Sarah Palin	36%	16
		Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	40%	6
Public Policy Polling	December 10–12, 2010	Barack Obama	47%	Newt Gingrich	41%	6	510 RV	±4.3%
		Barack Obama	45%	Mike Huckabee	44%	1
		Barack Obama	49%	Sarah Palin	42%	7
		Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	42%	2

Oregon[edit]

7 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 51%–47%
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–40%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
Daily Kos/Service Employees' International Union/Public Policy Polling (D)	December 13–14, 2011	Barack Obama	55%	Newt Gingrich	37%	18	979 RV	±3.1%
	December 13–14, 2011	Barack Obama	53%	Mitt Romney	40%	13	979 RV	±3.1%
KATU-TV Portland/SurveyUSA	November 18–21, 2011	Barack Obama	51%	Newt Gingrich	37%	14	528 RV	±4.4%
KATU-TV Portland/SurveyUSA	November 18–21, 2011	Barack Obama	48%	Mitt Romney	40%	8	528 RV	±4.4%
Public Policy Polling	June 19–21, 2011	Barack Obama	53%	Michele Bachmann	35%	18	701 RV	±3.7%
			53%	Herman Cain	32%	21
			57%	Sarah Palin	35%	22
			52%	Tim Pawlenty	34%	18
			50%	Mitt Romney	38%	12

Pennsylvania[edit]

20 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 51%–48%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–44%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
Morning Call/Muhlenberg College	November 28 – December 7, 2011	Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	41%	4	422 RV	±5%
			52%	Newt Gingrich	35%	17
			48%	Rick Perry	30%	18
			55%	Herman Cain	28%	27
Quinnipiac University	November 28 – December 5, 2011	Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	43%	3	1,453 RV	±2.6%
Quinnipiac University	November 28 – December 5, 2011	Barack Obama	48%	Newt Gingrich	40%	8	1,453 RV	±2.6%
Public Policy Polling	November 17–20, 2011	Barack Obama	53%	Herman Cain	35%	18	500 RV	±4.4%
			49%	Newt Gingrich	43%	6
			46%	Ron Paul	42%	4
			51%	Rick Perry	38%	13
		Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	45%	Tied
		Barack Obama	47%	Rick Santorum	42%	5
Survey USA	November 10, 2011	Barack Obama	47%	Newt Gingrich	40%	7	800 RV	±3.5%
Survey USA	November 10, 2011	Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	44%	Tied	800 RV	±3.5%
Quinnipiac University	October 31 – November 7, 2011	Barack Obama	48%	Herman Cain	38%	10	1,436 RV	±2.6%
			48%	Newt Gingrich	38%	10
			47%	Rick Perry	38%	9
			44%	Mitt Romney	43%	1
Franklin & Marshall College	October 24–30, 2011	Barack Obama	38%	Herman Cain	24%	14	525 RV	±4.3%
			40%	Rick Perry	20%	20
			35%	Mitt Romney	26%	9
			38%	Rick Santorum	25%	13
Quinnipiac University	September 21–26, 2011	Barack Obama	46%	Rick Perry	40%	6	1,370 RV	±2.7%
			45%	Mitt Romney	43%	2
			45%	Rick Santorum	42%	3
Franklin & Marshall College	August 22–29, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Michele Bachmann	23%	19	525 RV	±4.3%
			38%	Rick Perry	27%	11
			36%	Mitt Romney	30%	6
Quinnipiac University	July 25–31, 2011	Barack Obama	47%	Michele Bachmann	39%	8	1,358 RV	±2.7%
		Barack Obama	45%	Rick Perry	39%	6
		Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	44%	2
		Barack Obama	45%	Rick Santorum	43%	2
Public Policy Polling	June 30 – July 5, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Michele Bachmann	43%	7	545 RV	±4.2%
			49%	Herman Cain	37%	12
			53%	Sarah Palin	39%	14
			47%	Tim Pawlenty	39%	8
		Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	44%	Tied
		Barack Obama	50%	Rick Santorum	40%	10
Quinnipiac University	June 7–12, 2011	Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	40%	7	1,277 RV	±2.7%
Quinnipiac University	June 7–12, 2011	Barack Obama	49%	Rick Santorum	38%	11	1,277 RV	±2.7%
Public Policy Polling	April 7–10, 2011	Barack Obama	47%	Newt Gingrich	39%	8	593 RV	±4.0%
			45%	Mike Huckabee	44%	1
			50%	Sarah Palin	39%	11
		Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	43%	1
		Barack Obama	45%	Rick Santorum	43%	2
Public Policy Polling	January 3–5, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Newt Gingrich	40%	10	547 RV	±4.2%
			47%	Mike Huckabee	44%	3
			51%	Sarah Palin	36%	15
			46%	Mitt Romney	42%	4
			48%	Rick Santorum	40%	8

Rhode Island[edit]

4 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 59%–39%
(Democratic in 2008) 63%–35%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
Public Policy Polling	February 16–22, 2011	Barack Obama	60%	Newt Gingrich	27%	33	544 RV	±4.2%
		Barack Obama	56%	Mike Huckabee	31%	25
		Barack Obama	65%	Sarah Palin	24%	41
		Barack Obama	54%	Mitt Romney	37%	17

South Carolina[edit]

9 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 58%–41%
(Republican in 2008) 54%–45%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
NBC News/Marist College	December 4–7, 2011	Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	42%	3	2,107 RV	±2.1%
		Barack Obama	46%	Newt Gingrich	42%	4
		Barack Obama	47%	Ron Paul	37%	10
NBC News/Marist College	October 10–12, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Herman Cain	44%	2	2,131 RV	±2.1%
		Barack Obama	42%	Rick Perry	43%	1
		Barack Obama	40%	Mitt Romney	46%	6
Public Policy Polling	August 25–28, 2011	Barack Obama	44%	Michele Bachmann	44%	Tied	587 RV	±4.0%
		Barack Obama	44%	Newt Gingrich	45%	1
		Barack Obama	45%	Sarah Palin	45%	Tied
		Barack Obama	41%	Rick Perry	49%	8
		Barack Obama	38%	Mitt Romney	53%	15
Public Policy Polling	June 2–5, 2011	Barack Obama	43%	Herman Cain	40%	3	741 RV	±3.6%
		Barack Obama	44%	Jim DeMint	47%	3
		Barack Obama	46%	Newt Gingrich	44%	2
		Barack Obama	48%	Sarah Palin	43%	5
		Barack Obama	42%	Tim Pawlenty	42%	Tied
		Barack Obama	41%	Mitt Romney	50%	9
Public Policy Polling	January 28–30, 2011	Barack Obama	44%	Newt Gingrich	43%	1	1,167 RV	±2.9%
		Barack Obama	43%	Mike Huckabee	49%	6
		Barack Obama	47%	Sarah Palin	41%	6
		Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	49%	7
		Barack Obama	45%	Jim DeMint	47%	2

South Dakota[edit]

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 60%–38%
(Republican in 2008) 53%–45%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
Public Policy Polling	January 28–30, 2011	Barack Obama	44%	Newt Gingrich	42%	2	1,045 RV	±3.0%
		Barack Obama	41%	Mike Huckabee	47%	6
		Barack Obama	48%	Sarah Palin	40%	8
		Barack Obama	40%	Mitt Romney	46%	6
		Barack Obama	37%	John Thune	57%	20

Tennessee[edit]

11 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 57%–43%
(Republican in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
Vanderbilt University	October 28 – November 5, 2011	Barack Obama	39%	Rick Perry	40%	1	1,423 RV	±2.6%
		Barack Obama	37%	Herman Cain	41%	4
		Barack Obama	38%	Mitt Romney	42%	4
Middle Tennessee State University	October 3–14, 2011	Barack Obama	29%	Mitt Romney	44%	14	635 A	±4%
Vanderbilt University	June 3–8, 2011	Barack Obama	38%	Michele Bachmann	27%	11	700 RV	±3.7%
		Barack Obama	38%	Newt Gingrich	26%	12
		Barack Obama	43%	Sarah Palin	29%	14
		Barack Obama	37%	Tim Pawlenty	28%	9
		Barack Obama	37%	Mitt Romney	35%	2
Public Policy Polling	February 9–13, 2011	Barack Obama	43%	Newt Gingrich	46%	3	500 RV	±4.4%
		Barack Obama	41%	Mike Huckabee	53%	12
		Barack Obama	45%	Sarah Palin	45%	Tied
		Barack Obama	41%	Mitt Romney	48%	7
FRONTPAGE Vanderbilt University	January 14–16, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Sarah Palin	37%	5	710 RV	±3.3%

Three Way race

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Third party/independent	%	Lead margin
Vanderbilt University	October 28 – November 5, 2011	Barack Obama	34%	Rick Perry	27%	"a qualified Independent candidate"	23%	7
			38%	Herman Cain	30%	"a qualified Independent candidate"	18%	8
			36%	Mitt Romney	25%	"a qualified Independent candidate"	23%	11
			33%	Mitt Romney	28%	Michael Bloomberg	14%	5
			34%	Mitt Romney	28%	Warren Buffett	18%	6
			38%	Mitt Romney	35%	Alec Baldwin	8%	3

Texas[edit]

38 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 61%–38%
(Republican in 2008) 55%–44%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample Size	Margin of error
University of Texas/Texas Tribune/YouGov	October 19–26, 2011	Barack Obama	33%	Ron Paul	38%	5	800 A	±3.46%
		Barack Obama	35%	Herman Cain	40%	5
		Barack Obama	34%	Mitt Romney	36%	2
		Barack Obama	37%	Rick Perry	45%	8
Public Policy Polling	June 25–27, 2011	Barack Obama	44%	Michele Bachmann	47%	3	795 RV	±3.5%
		Barack Obama	43%	Herman Cain	43%	Tied
		Barack Obama	46%	Sarah Palin	44%	2
		Barack Obama	43%	Tim Pawlenty	44%	1
		Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	50%	8
		Barack Obama	40%	Ron Paul	45%	5
		Barack Obama	47%	Rick Perry	45%	2
Public Policy Polling	January 14–16, 2011	Barack Obama	43%	Newt Gingrich	48%	5	892 RV	±3.3%
		Barack Obama	39%	Mike Huckabee	55%	16
		Barack Obama	46%	Sarah Palin	47%	1
		Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	49%	7
		Barack Obama	45%	Rick Perry	45%	Tied
University of Texas at Austin	June 11–22, 2009	Barack Obama	34%	Mitt Romney	39%	5	924 A	±3.22%

Utah[edit]

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 72%–26%
(Republican in 2008) 62%–34%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample size	Margin of error
Public Policy Polling	July 8–10, 2011	Barack Obama	35%	Michele Bachmann	49%	14	732 RV	±3.6%
			36%	Herman Cain	43%	7
			23%	Jon Huntsman	63%	40
			41%	Sarah Palin	43%	2
			34%	Tim Pawlenty	45%	11
			31%	Mitt Romney	63%	32
Salt Lake Tribune/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research	April 26–28, 2010	Barack Obama	22%	Mitt Romney	73%	51	400 RV	±5.0%
			32%	Sarah Palin	53%	22
			31%	Ron Paul	48%	17
KSL-TV/Dan Jones & Associates	April 29, 2009	Barack Obama	27%	Mitt Romney	67%	40	254 A	±6.2%
KSL-TV/Dan Jones & Associates	April 29, 2009	Barack Obama	25%	Jon Huntsman	58%	33	254 A	±6.2%

Vermont[edit]

3 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 59%–39%
(Democratic in 2008) 67%–30%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample size	Margin of error
Public Policy Polling^{[permanent dead link]}	July 28–31, 2011	Barack Obama	58%	Michele Bachmann	30%	28	1,233 RV	±2.8%
			58%	Herman Cain	26%	32
			53%	Mike Huckabee	36%	17
			62%	Sarah Palin	28%	34
			57%	Rick Perry	28%	29
			54%	Mitt Romney	34%	20

Virginia[edit]

13 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 54%–46%
(Democratic in 2008) 53%–46%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample size	Margin of error
Quinnipiac University	December 13–19, 2011	Barack Obama	46%	Newt Gingrich	41%	5	1,135 RV	±2.9%
Quinnipiac University	December 13–19, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	44%	2	1,135 RV	±2.9%
Public Policy Polling	December 11–13, 2011	Barack Obama	52%	Michele Bachmann	39%	13	600 RV	±4%
		Barack Obama	50%	Newt Gingrich	43%	7
		Barack Obama	48%	Ron Paul	40%	8
		Barack Obama	51%	Rick Perry	41%	10
		Barack Obama	48%	Mitt Romney	42%	6
Quinnipiac University	October 3–9, 2011	Barack Obama	45%	Herman Cain	43%	2	1,459 RV	±2.6%
		Barack Obama	47%	Rick Perry	42%	5
		Barack Obama	44%	Mitt Romney	45%	1
Richmond Times-Dispatch/Muhlenberg College/Christopher Newport University	October 3–8, 2011	Barack Obama	43%	Rick Perry	43%	Tied	1,027 RV	±3.1%
	October 3–8, 2011	Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	46%	4	1,027 RV	±3.1%
Roanoke College	September 6–17, 2011	Barack Obama	46%	Michele Bachmann	35%	9	601 A	±4%
		Barack Obama	50%	Sarah Palin	31%	19
		Barack Obama	43%	Ron Paul	33%	10
		Barack Obama	40%	Rick Perry	42%	2
		Barack Obama	37%	Mitt Romney	45%	8
Quinnipiac University	September 7–12, 2011	Barack Obama	48%	Michele Bachmann	37%	11	1,368 RV	±2.7%
		Barack Obama	50%	Sarah Palin	35%	15
		Barack Obama	44%	Rick Perry	42%	2
		Barack Obama	42%	Mitt Romney	44%	2
Public Policy Polling	July 21–24, 2011	Barack Obama	49%	Michele Bachmann	40%	9	500 RV	±4.4%
		Barack Obama	49%	Herman Cain	38%	11
		Barack Obama	51%	Sarah Palin	37%	14
		Barack Obama	48%	Rick Perry	39%	9
		Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	43%	4
Public Policy Polling	May 5–8, 2011	Barack Obama	54%	Newt Gingrich	37%	17	547 RV	±4.2%
		Barack Obama	52%	Mike Huckabee	43%	9
		Barack Obama	55%	Sarah Palin	40%	15
		Barack Obama	51%	Mitt Romney	40%	11
		Barack Obama	54%	Donald Trump	32%	22
		Barack Obama	51%	Bob McDonnell	43%	8
The Washington Post^[1]	May 2–4, 2011	Barack Obama	51%	Mitt Romney	44%	7	503 RV	Not reported
		Barack Obama	53%	Mike Huckabee	34%	9
		Barack Obama	55%	Tim Pawlenty	35%	20
		Barack Obama	61%	Donald Trump	30%	31
		Barack Obama	61%	Sarah Palin	30%	31
The Washington Post^[1]	April 28 – May 1, 2011	Barack Obama	48%	Mitt Romney	46%	2	677 RV	Not reported
		Barack Obama	50%	Mike Huckabee	46%	4
		Barack Obama	51%	Tim Pawlenty	38%	13
		Barack Obama	54%	Donald Trump	35%	19
		Barack Obama	55%	Sarah Palin	36%	19
Public Policy Polling	February 24–27, 2011	Barack Obama	51%	Newt Gingrich	39%	12	524 RV	±3.5%
		Barack Obama	51%	Mike Huckabee	43%	8
		Barack Obama	54%	Sarah Palin	35%	19
		Barack Obama	48%	Mitt Romney	42%	6
Public Policy Polling	November 10–13, 2010	Barack Obama	48%	Mitt Romney	43%	5	551 RV	±4.2%
		Barack Obama	51%	Sarah Palin	40%	11
		Barack Obama	49%	Mike Huckabee	44%	5
		Barack Obama	52%	Newt Gingrich	41%	11

Washington[edit]

12 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 53%–46%
(Democratic in 2008) 58%–40%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample size	Margin of error
KING-TV Seattle/SurveyUSA	November 21–23, 2011	Barack Obama	56%	Newt Gingrich	37%	19	549 RV	±4.3%
KING-TV Seattle/SurveyUSA	November 21–23, 2011	Barack Obama	49%	Mitt Romney	41%	8	549 RV	±4.3%
University of Washington	October 10–30, 2011	Barack Obama	54%	Rick Perry	41%	13	938 RV	±3.2%
University of Washington	October 10–30, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Mitt Romney	41%	9	938 RV	±3.2%
Strategies 360	September 11–14, 2011	Barack Obama	51%	Rick Perry	37%	14	400 LV	±4.9%
Strategies 360	September 11–14, 2011	Barack Obama	49%	Mitt Romney	40%	9	400 LV	±4.9%
Public Policy Polling	May 12–15, 2011	Barack Obama	54%	Newt Gingrich	36%	18	1098 RV	±3.0%
		Barack Obama	53%	Mike Huckabee	39%	14
		Barack Obama	57%	Sarah Palin	34%	23
		Barack Obama	51%	Mitt Romney	40%	11
		Barack Obama	58%	Donald Trump	31%	27

West Virginia[edit]

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 56%–43%
(Republican in 2008) 56%–43%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample size	Margin of error
Public Policy Polling	September 30– October 2, 2011	Barack Obama	37%	Michele Bachmann	52%	15	932 RV	±3.2%
		Barack Obama	36%	Newt Gingrich	51%	15
		Barack Obama	34%	Ron Paul	48%	14
		Barack Obama	36%	Rick Perry	52%	16
		Barack Obama	33%	Mitt Romney	54%	21
Public Policy Polling	September 1–4, 2011	Barack Obama	39%	Michele Bachmann	48%	9	708 RV	±3.7%
		Barack Obama	40%	Newt Gingrich	45%	5
		Barack Obama	42%	Sarah Palin	45%	3
		Barack Obama	38%	Rick Perry	49%	11
		Barack Obama	37%	Mitt Romney	49%	12
Public Policy Polling	January 20–23, 2011	Barack Obama	39%	Newt Gingrich	49%	10	1105 RV	±2.9%
		Barack Obama	36%	Mike Huckabee	54%	18
		Barack Obama	42%	Sarah Palin	46%	4
		Barack Obama	37%	Mitt Romney	50%	13

Wisconsin[edit]

10 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 50%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 56%–42%

Poll source	Date administered	Democrat	%	Republican	%	Lead margin	Sample size	Margin of error
WRPI	October 18–26, 2011	Barack Obama	50%	Herman Cain	31%	19	605 A	±4%
		Barack Obama	48%	Rick Perry	30%	18
		Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	35%	11
Public Policy Polling	October 20–23, 2011	Barack Obama	51%	Michele Bachmann	40%	11	1,170 RV	±2.9%
		Barack Obama	49%	Herman Cain	42%	7
		Barack Obama	52%	Newt Gingrich	38%	14
		Barack Obama	50%	Rick Perry	39%	11
		Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	43%	3
Public Policy Polling	August 12–14, 2011	Barack Obama	51%	Michele Bachmann	39%	12	830 RV	±3.4%
		Barack Obama	50%	Herman Cain	36%	14
		Barack Obama	52%	Sarah Palin	40%	12
		Barack Obama	50%	Rick Perry	40%	10
		Barack Obama	47%	Mitt Romney	42%	5
Public Policy Polling	May 19–22, 2011	Barack Obama	53%	Newt Gingrich	35%	18	1,636 RV	±2.4%
		Barack Obama	55%	Sarah Palin	36%	19
		Barack Obama	51%	Mitt Romney	39%	12
		Barack Obama	50%	Paul Ryan	43%	7
Public Policy Polling	February 24–27, 2011	Barack Obama	51%	Newt Gingrich	39%	12	768 RV	±3.5%
		Barack Obama	48%	Mike Huckabee	41%	7
		Barack Obama	54%	Sarah Palin	35%	19
		Barack Obama	48%	Mitt Romney	38%	10
		Barack Obama	49%	Paul Ryan	40%	9
Public Policy Polling	December 10–12, 2010	Barack Obama	50%	Newt Gingrich	41%	9	702 RV	±3.7%
		Barack Obama	47%	Mike Huckabee	41%	6
		Barack Obama	52%	Sarah Palin	38%	14
		Barack Obama	46%	Mitt Romney	42%	4
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	October 26, 2010	Barack Obama	47%	Herman Cain	42%	5	500 LV	±4.5%
		Barack Obama	42%	Rick Perry	46%	4
		Barack Obama	45%	Mitt Romney	41%	4

Notes[edit]

^ ^a ^b Interviews conducted after the news of Osama bin Laden's killing.

[osama-1] Interviews conducted after the news of Osama bin Laden's killing.

[1]

Arizona[edit]

Arkansas[edit]

California[edit]

Colorado[edit]

Connecticut[edit]

Florida[edit]

Georgia[edit]

Hawaii[edit]

Illinois[edit]

Iowa[edit]

Kansas[edit]

Kentucky[edit]

Louisiana[edit]

Maine[edit]

Massachusetts[edit]

Michigan[edit]

Minnesota[edit]

Mississippi[edit]

Missouri[edit]

Montana[edit]

Nebraska[edit]

Nevada[edit]

New Hampshire[edit]

New Jersey[edit]

New Mexico[edit]

New York[edit]

North Carolina[edit]

Ohio[edit]

Oregon[edit]

Pennsylvania[edit]

Rhode Island[edit]

South Carolina[edit]

South Dakota[edit]

Tennessee[edit]

Texas[edit]

Utah[edit]

Vermont[edit]

Virginia[edit]

Washington[edit]

West Virginia[edit]

Wisconsin[edit]

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

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