| Page Australian House of Representatives Division | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Division of Page in New South Wales, as of the 2016 federal election | |||||||||||||||
| Created | 1984 | ||||||||||||||
| MP | Kevin Hogan | ||||||||||||||
| Party | Nationals | ||||||||||||||
| Namesake | Sir Earle Page | ||||||||||||||
| Electors | 122,915 (2022) | ||||||||||||||
| Area | 19,342 km2 (7,468.0 sq mi) | ||||||||||||||
| Demographic | Rural | ||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||
The Division of Page is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales.
History[edit]
The division is named after the Right Honourable Sir Earle Page, the second leader of the Country Party of Australia and the Prime Minister of Australia after the death of Joseph Lyons in 1939. The division was proclaimed at the redistribution of 11 October 1984, and was first contested at the 1984 federal election.
Since its creation, Page has usually been a marginal seat, frequently changing hands between the National Party and the Labor Party, with neither party gaining more than 55% of the two party preferred vote at any election except for the 1984 election, the 2019 election and the 2022 Australian federal election . It was considered a bellwether seat from the 1990 election until 2022, when it was comfortably won by the National Party, despite the victory of the Labor Party under Anthony Albanese.[1] Though results vary by election, booths in the City of Lismore LGA are usually Labor’s strongest results, while the more rural booths generally deliver strong votes for the Nationals candidate.[2]
It was previously held by Ian Causley, the Deputy Speaker of the Australian House of Representatives. Causley retired at the 2007 election, and Chris Gulaptis, a former Mayor of Maclean, was endorsed as the Nationals' candidate. Labor selected Janelle Saffin, a former member of the New South Wales Legislative Council, who took the seat with a swing of around 8 per cent. Saffin increased her majority in 2010, however was defeated in 2013 by the Nationals' Kevin Hogan, who won with a swing of 6.71 per cent.
Hogan moved to the crossbench in 2018 in protest over the spate of leadership spills in the Liberal Party. However, he still supported the Coalition on confidence and supply, and remained a National in good standing. He rejoined the Coalition before the 2019 election and contested that as a Nationals endorsed candidate.[3][4]
Boundaries[edit]
Since 1984, federal electoral division boundaries in Australia have been determined at redistributions by a redistribution committee appointed by the Australian Electoral Commission. Redistributions occur for the boundaries of divisions in a particular state, and they occur every seven years, or sooner if a state's representation entitlement changes or when divisions of a state are malapportioned.[5]
The division is located in the far north-east of the state, adjoining the border with Queensland and the Tasman Sea. It includes the towns of Lismore, Casino, Grafton, Tyringham, Bonalbo, Nimbin, Yamba and Iluka. Originally, much of its current territory (including Page's home of Grafton) was located in neighbouring Cowper, which Page represented from 1919 to 1961. In February 2016, Page's borders were extended as far south as Sapphire Beach.[6]
Members[edit]
| Image | Member | Party | Term | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Ian Robinson (1925–2017) |
Nationals | 1 December 1984 – 24 March 1990 |
Previously held the Division of Cowper. Lost seat | |
|
Harry Woods (1947–) |
Labor | 24 March 1990 – 2 March 1996 |
Lost seat. Later elected to the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Clarence in 1996 | |
|
Ian Causley (1940–2020) |
Nationals | 2 March 1996 – 17 October 2007 |
Previously held the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Clarence. Retired | |
|
Janelle Saffin (1954–) |
Labor | 24 November 2007 – 7 September 2013 |
Previously a member of the New South Wales Legislative Council. Lost seat. Later elected to the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Lismore in 2019 | |
|
Kevin Hogan (1963–) |
Nationals | 7 September 2013 – 24 August 2018 |
Sat as Independent National after second Liberal Party leadership spill, returned to Nationals after 2019 election. Incumbent[7][8] | |
| Independent National | 24 August 2018 – 21 May 2018 | ||||
| Nationals | 21 May 2018 – present |
Election results[edit]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | Kevin Hogan | 47,701 | 45.62 | −4.01 | |
| Labor | Patrick Deegan | 19,531 | 18.68 | −7.68 | |
| Independent | Hanabeth Luke | 13,734 | 13.13 | +13.13 | |
| Greens | Kashmir Miller | 8,863 | 8.48 | −3.20 | |
| One Nation | Donna Pike | 5,621 | 5.38 | +5.38 | |
| Liberal Democrats | Thomas Searles | 3,896 | 3.73 | +3.73 | |
| United Australia | Ian Williamson | 2,431 | 2.32 | −0.88 | |
| Indigenous-Aboriginal | Brett Duroux | 1,733 | 1.66 | +1.66 | |
| Australian Federation | Heather Smith | 816 | 0.78 | +0.78 | |
| TNL | Serge Killingbeck | 243 | 0.23 | +0.23 | |
| Total formal votes | 104,569 | 93.03 | −2.22 | ||
| Informal votes | 7,839 | 6.97 | +2.22 | ||
| Turnout | 112,408 | 91.47 | −1.06 | ||
| Two-party-preferred result | |||||
| National | Kevin Hogan | 63,512 | 60.74 | +1.29 | |
| Labor | Patrick Deegan | 41,057 | 39.26 | −1.29 | |
| National hold | Swing | +1.29 | |||
- Liberal
References[edit]
- ^ "Page - Federal Electorate, Candidates, Results". Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
- ^ "Page – Australia 2019 | The Tally Room". 2 April 2018.
- ^ "It's time for sane Liberals to tell their party's deniers the climate has changed | The New Daily Liberal dinosaur need to be taught the climate has changed". 10 January 2020.
- ^ "Nats MP to return if elected, leader says".
- ^ Muller, Damon (14 November 2017). "The process of federal redistributions: a quick guide". Parliament of Australia. Retrieved 19 April 2022.
- ^ "Profile of the electoral division of Page (NSW)". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 18 March 2016.
- ^ Patterson, Alison (23 August 2018). "'I will not resign... this is about integrity': Kevin Hogan". The Northern Star.
- ^ Lewis, Rosie (25 August 2018). "Independent MPs refuse to give Morrison guarantees of confidence". The Australian.
- ^ Page, NSW, 2022 Tally Room, Australian Electoral Commission.