THC Science

2012 United States Senate election in Washington
Turnout	64.1% (voting eligible)
	Cantwell: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Baumgartner: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Tie: 50%; No votes
U.S. senator before election; Maria Cantwell; Democratic	Elected U.S. Senator ; Maria Cantwell; Democratic

The 2012 United States Senate election in Washington took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Maria Cantwell won re-election to a third term by a significant margin, outperforming President Barack Obama's margin in the concurrent presidential election by 6%.

Background[edit]

Maria Cantwell won re-election to serve a second term with 56.81% of the vote against Mike McGavick in the 2006 Washingtonian U.S. senatorial election.

Top-two primary election[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Democratic[edit]

Maria Cantwell, incumbent U.S. Senator^[2]
Timothy Wilson^[3]

Republican[edit]

Michael Baumgartner, state senator^[4]
Art Coday, physician^[5]
Chuck Jackson, merchant mariner^[6]^[7]
Mike the Mover, perennial candidate^[6]
Glen R. Stockwell, president of Washington State Economic Development Corporation^[6]^[8]

Declined[edit]

Bill Bryant, Port of Seattle Commission President^[9]
Clint Didier, former NFL football player (endorsed Coday)^[10]
Doc Hastings, U.S. Representative^[11]
Jaime Herrera Beutler, U.S. Representative^[12]
John Koster, Snohomish County Councilman and candidate for the 2nd congressional district in 2010 (running for the U.S. House)^[13]
Cathy McMorris Rodgers, U.S. Representative^[14]
Dave Reichert, U.S. Representative^[15]
Phillip Yin, Hong Kong-based anchor for Bloomberg Television^[16]

Others[edit]

Will Baker (Reform Party)^[6]

Results[edit]

Results by county:

  Cantwell

  30–40%

  40–50%

  50–60%

  60–70%

  Baumgartner

  40–50%

  50–60%

Blanket primary results^[17]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Maria Cantwell (incumbent)	626,360	55.42
	Republican	Michael Baumgartner	344,729	30.50
	Republican	Art Coday	59,255	5.24
	Democratic	Timothy Wilson	26,850	2.38
	Republican	Chuck Jackson	21,870	1.94
	Republican	Glenn R. Stockwell	21,731	1.92
	Republican	Mike the Mover	16,459	1.46
	Reform	Will Baker	12,865	1.14
Total votes			1,130,119	100.00

General election[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Michael Baumgartner (Republican), state senator
Maria Cantwell (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Senator

Debates[edit]

Complete video of debate, October 12, 2012 - C-SPAN

Fundraising[edit]

Candidate (party)	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt
Maria Cantwell (D)	$8,032,254	$6,355,260	$2,176,258	$2,171,350
Michael Baumgartner (R)	$689,690	$422,428	$181,841	$45,689
Source: Federal Election Commission^[18]^[19]

Top contributors[edit]

^[20]

Maria Cantwell	Contribution	Michael Baumgartner	Contribution
Microsoft Corp	$83,982	Anderson Hay & Grain	$5,000
EMILY's List	$77,900	Columbia Management Systems, By Lar	$5,000
Morgan & Morgan	$40,000	Ignition Partners	$5,000
League of Conservation Voters	$39,900	Kvc Development Co	$5,000
University of Washington	$35,900	Acorn Campus Ventures	$4,000
K&L Gates	$35,048	Legacy LLC	$3,523
Boeing Co.	$30,625	Inland Empire Paper	$3,750
Intellectual Ventures LLC	$27,250	Savers Inc	$3,523
McBee Strategic Consulting	$26,650	Red Lion Hotels	$3,500
Second Avenue Partners	$24,500	National Cotton Council	$3,300

Top industries[edit]

^[21]

Maria Cantwell	Contribution	Michael Baumgartner	Contribution
Lawyers/law firms	$696,936	Retired	$45,756
Retired	$621,231	Financial institutions	$10,000
Lobbyists	$539,418	Financial institutions	$310,487
Financial institutions	$310,487	Agribusiness	$9,550
Computers/Internet	$206,970	Health professionals	$6,150
Real estate	$179,169	Misc. finance	$4,250
Health professionals	$169,937	Mining	$4,25
Business services	$167,629	Timber/forest products	$3,750
Casinos/gambling	$165,850	General contractors	$3,000
Entertainment industry	$136,457	Real estate	$2,950

Predictions[edit]

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[22]	Solid D	November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[23]	Safe D	November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report^[24]	Safe D	November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics^[25]	Likely D	November 5, 2012

Polling[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Maria Cantwell (D)	Michael Baumgartner (R)	Other/Undecided ^[a]	Margin
Real Clear Politics	October 14 – November 3, 2012	November 3, 2012	56.7%	36.3%	7.0%	Cantwell +20.4%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Maria Cantwell (D)	Michael Baumgartner (R)	Other	Undecided
Survey USA	November 21–23, 2011	549	±4.3%	51%	39%	—	10%
Survey USA	January 12–16, 2012	617	±4.0%	50%	41%	—	8%
Public Policy Polling	February 16–19, 2012	1,264	±2.76%	51%	36%	—	13%
Public Policy Polling	June 14–17, 2012	1,073	±3.0%	51%	35%	—	14%
Survey USA	July 16–17, 2012	630	±4.0%	51%	40%	—	9%
Survey USA	September 7–9, 2012	524	±4.4%	54%	38%	—	8%
Rasmussen Reports	September 26, 2012	500	±4.5%	57%	37%	1%	5%
SurveyUSA	September 28–30, 2012	540	±4.3%	53%	40%	—	6%
The Washington Poll	October 1–16, 2012	782	±3.5%	58%	35%	—	7%
Rasmussen Reports	October 14, 2012	500	±4.5%	52%	37%	1%	9%
KCTS 9/Washington Poll	October 18–31, 2012	632	±3.9%	61%	33%	—	6%
Public Policy Polling	November 1–3, 2012	932	±3.2%	57%	39%	—	4%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Maria Cantwell (D)	Bill Bryant (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 16–19, 2012	1,264	±2.76%	50%	36%	—	14%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Maria Cantwell (D)	Cathy M. Rodgers (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	July 27 – August 1, 2010	1,204	±2.8%	49%	37%	—	13%
Public Policy Polling	May 12–15, 2011	1,098	±3.0%	50%	31%	—	19%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Maria Cantwell (D)	Dave Reichert (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	July 27 – August 1, 2010	1,204	±2.8%	47%	41%	—	12%
Public Policy Polling	May 12–15, 2011	1,098	±3.0%	49%	35%	—	16%
Survey USA	November 21–23, 2011	549	±4.3%	48%	41%	—	10%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Maria Cantwell (D)	Clint Didier (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 12–15, 2011	1,098	±3.0%	51%	35%	—	13%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Maria Cantwell (D)	Susan Hutchison (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 12–15, 2011	1,098	±3.0%	49%	35%	—	16%
Survey USA	November 21–23, 2011	549	±4.3%	49%	38%	—	13%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Maria Cantwell (D)	Dino Rossi (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 12–15, 2011	1,098	±3.0%	53%	40%	—	8%
Public Policy Polling	February 16–19, 2012	1,264	±2.76%	53%	41%	—	7%

Endorsements[edit]

Maria Cantwell (D)

State legislators

Dale Foreman, former majority leader of the Washington House of Representatives and former chair of the Washington State Republican Party (Republican)^[26]

Results[edit]

United States Senate election in Washington, 2012^[27]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Maria Cantwell (incumbent)	1,855,493	60.36%	+3.55%
	Republican	Michael Baumgartner	1,213,924	39.49%	-0.42%
	Write-in		4,644	0.15%	+0.08%
Total votes			3,074,061	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic[edit]

Yakima (largest city: Yakima)

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican[edit]

Asotin (largest city: Clarkston)
Spokane (largest city: Spokane)
Whitman (largest city: Pullman)

By congressional district[edit]

Cantwell won 8 of 10 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.^[28]

District	Baumgartner	Cantwell	Representative
1st	43%	57%	Suzan DelBene
2nd	37%	63%	Rick Larsen
3rd	47%	53%	Jaime Herrera Beutler
4th	55%	45%	Doc Hastings
5th	52%	48%	Cathy McMorris Rodgers
6th	39%	61%	Derek Kilmer
7th	18%	82%	Jim McDermott
8th	45%	55%	Dave Reichert
9th	28%	72%	Adam Smith
10th	39%	61%	Denny Heck

Notes[edit]

^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

References[edit]

^ Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved April 6, 2013.
^ Blumenthal, Les (November 21, 2010). "Washington state's Cantwell not looking ahead to 2012 -- yet". McClatchy Newspapers. Archived from the original on November 19, 2012. Retrieved December 9, 2010.
^ "timwilsonforsenate.org - timwilsonforsenate Resources and Information". Archived from the original on January 13, 2016. Retrieved September 1, 2019.
^ "Makupfront: Up Front With Robert Mak". Archived from the original on April 25, 2012. Retrieved October 2, 2011.
^ Camden, Jim (January 30, 2012). "U.S. Senate race: Cantwell has $4 million in bank". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved February 24, 2012.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d "2012 Candidates Appearing in the Primary". Secretary of State of Washington. Retrieved August 1, 2012.
^ "Candidate Statement". Secretary of State of Washington. Retrieved August 1, 2012.
^ "Corporation Registration Detail". Secretary of State of Washington. Retrieved August 1, 2012.
^ Myrick, Bryan (March 12, 2012). "Port Commission President Bill Bryant Will Not Challenge Cantwell for U.S. Senate". NW Daily Marker.
^ "Endorsements - Art Coday for US Senate, Washington 2012". Archived from the original on March 23, 2012. Retrieved March 25, 2012.
^ Faulk, Mike (February 24, 2012). "Doc Hastings rules out reform". Yakima Herald-Republic. Tri-City Herald. Archived from the original on April 18, 2012. Retrieved February 24, 2012.
^ Mathieu, Stevie (January 16, 2012). "Congresswoman talks town halls, confirms re-election bid". The Columbian. Retrieved February 24, 2012.
^ "John Koster officially files to unseat Rep. Rick Larsen | Politics | Everett News". Archived from the original on April 2, 2012. Retrieved August 6, 2011.
^ Camden, Jim; Brunt, Jonathan (March 17, 2011). "McMorris Rodgers starting 2012 campaign". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved February 24, 2012.
^ Brunner, Jim (February 2, 2012). "Reichert won't challenge Cantwell for U.S. Senate seat". The Seattle Times.
^ Mak, Robert (October 26, 2011). "GOP Senate hopeful drops out of race". KING 5 News. Archived from the original on February 11, 2012. Retrieved December 14, 2011.
^ "U.S. Senator". Archived from the original on August 10, 2012. Retrieved August 8, 2012.
^ |Maria Cantwell Campaign Finances
^ |Michael Baumgartner Campaign Finances
^ [http://www.opensecrets.org/races/contrib.php?cycle=2012&id=WAS1 OpenSecrets
^ Donors by Industry (opensecrets.org)
^ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
^ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
^ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
^ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
^ "Extra Jolt: Longtime Republican Leader Endorses Cantwell over Baumgartner".
^ "U.S. Senator".
^ Results (PDF). wei.sos.wa.gov (Report). Archived from the original (PDF) on June 30, 2018.

External links[edit]

Elections & Voting at the Washington Secretary of State office
Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets.org
Outside spending at Sunlight Foundation
Candidate issue positions at On the Issues

Official campaign websites (archived)

[26] Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

[VEP12-1] Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved April 6, 2013.

[mcclatchy1-2] Blumenthal, Les (November 21, 2010). "Washington state's Cantwell not looking ahead to 2012 -- yet". McClatchy Newspapers. Archived from the original on November 19, 2012. Retrieved December 9, 2010.

[3] "timwilsonforsenate.org - timwilsonforsenate Resources and Information". Archived from the original on January 13, 2016. Retrieved September 1, 2019.

[4] "Makupfront: Up Front With Robert Mak". Archived from the original on April 25, 2012. Retrieved October 2, 2011.

[5] Camden, Jim (January 30, 2012). "U.S. Senate race: Cantwell has $4 million in bank". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved February 24, 2012.

[secstate1-6] "2012 Candidates Appearing in the Primary". Secretary of State of Washington. Retrieved August 1, 2012.

[7] "Candidate Statement". Secretary of State of Washington. Retrieved August 1, 2012.

[8] "Corporation Registration Detail". Secretary of State of Washington. Retrieved August 1, 2012.

[9] Myrick, Bryan (March 12, 2012). "Port Commission President Bill Bryant Will Not Challenge Cantwell for U.S. Senate". NW Daily Marker.

[10] "Endorsements - Art Coday for US Senate, Washington 2012". Archived from the original on March 23, 2012. Retrieved March 25, 2012.

[11] Faulk, Mike (February 24, 2012). "Doc Hastings rules out reform". Yakima Herald-Republic. Tri-City Herald. Archived from the original on April 18, 2012. Retrieved February 24, 2012.

[12] Mathieu, Stevie (January 16, 2012). "Congresswoman talks town halls, confirms re-election bid". The Columbian. Retrieved February 24, 2012.

[13] "John Koster officially files to unseat Rep. Rick Larsen | Politics | Everett News". Archived from the original on April 2, 2012. Retrieved August 6, 2011.

[14] Camden, Jim; Brunt, Jonathan (March 17, 2011). "McMorris Rodgers starting 2012 campaign". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved February 24, 2012.

[15] Brunner, Jim (February 2, 2012). "Reichert won't challenge Cantwell for U.S. Senate seat". The Seattle Times.

[16] Mak, Robert (October 26, 2011). "GOP Senate hopeful drops out of race". KING 5 News. Archived from the original on February 11, 2012. Retrieved December 14, 2011.

[17] "U.S. Senator". Archived from the original on August 10, 2012. Retrieved August 8, 2012.

[18] |Maria Cantwell Campaign Finances

[19] |Michael Baumgartner Campaign Finances

[20] [http://www.opensecrets.org/races/contrib.php?cycle=2012&id=WAS1 OpenSecrets

[21] Donors by Industry (opensecrets.org)

[22] "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.

[23] "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.

[24] "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.

[25] "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.

[27] "Extra Jolt: Longtime Republican Leader Endorses Cantwell over Baumgartner".

[28] "U.S. Senator".

[29] Results (PDF). wei.sos.wa.gov (Report). Archived from the original (PDF) on June 30, 2018.

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Background[edit]

Top-two primary election[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Democratic[edit]

Republican[edit]

Declined[edit]

Others[edit]

Results[edit]

General election[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Debates[edit]

Fundraising[edit]

Top contributors[edit]

Top industries[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Polling[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Results[edit]

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic[edit]

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican[edit]

By congressional district[edit]

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

References[edit]

External links[edit]

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