THC Science

2012 United States Senate election in Tennessee
Turnout	61.86% 11.89 pp
	Corker: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90%; Clayton: 50–60% 60–70%
U.S. senator before election; Bob Corker; Republican	Elected U.S. Senator ; Bob Corker; Republican

The 2012 United States Senate election in Tennessee took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the general election including the 2012 U.S. presidential election, elections to the House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Bob Corker won a second term in a landslide, carrying all but two counties in the state.

Corker narrowly flipped reliably Democratic Davidson County, home to Nashville, which had not voted Republican on the presidential level since 1988. He faced Democratic nominee Mark E. Clayton^[2] as well as several third-party candidates and several independents in this election.

Corker easily won the Republican primary with 85% of the vote, and Clayton won the Democratic nomination with 30% of the vote, despite raising no money and having a website that was four years out of date.^[3] The next day Tennessee's Democratic Party disavowed the candidate over his active role in the Public Advocate of the United States, which they described as a "known hate group". They blamed his victory among candidates for whom the TNDP provided little forums to become known on the fact that his name appeared first on the ballot, and said they would do nothing to help his campaign, urging Democrats to vote for "the write-in candidate of their choice" in November.^[4] One of the Democratic candidates, Larry Crim, filed a petition seeking to offer the voters a new primary in which to select a Democratic nominee among the remaining candidates the party had affirmed as bona fide and as a preliminary motion sought a temporary restraining order against certification of the results, but after a judge denied the temporary order Crim withdrew his petition.^[5]

Background[edit]

The incumbent in the race, former Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker, was elected in 2006 with 50.7% of the vote in a win against U.S. representative Harold Ford, Jr.

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Fred R. Anderson
Mark Twain Clemens, unemployed
Bob Corker, incumbent U.S. Senator
James Durkan, businessman
Brenda Lenard, businesswoman & doctoral student
Zach Poskevich, technology consultant

Publicly Speculated, but Declined[edit]

Hank Williams, Jr., country music entertainer

Polling[edit]

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Corker	More conservative challenger	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 9–13, 2011	400	±4.9%	38%	43%	—	19%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Corker	Marsha Blackburn	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 9–13, 2011	400	±4.9%	50%	30%	—	20%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Corker	Hank Williams, Jr.	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 9–13, 2011	400	±4.9%	66%	13%	—	21%

Results[edit]

Tennessee Republican primary^[6]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Bob Corker (Incumbent)	389,483	85.25%
	Republican	Zach Poskevich	28,299	6.19%
	Republican	Fred Anderson	15,942	3.49%
	Republican	Mark Twain Clemens	11,788	2.58%
	Republican	Brenda Lenard	11,378	2.49%
Total votes			456,890	100.00%

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Mark E. Clayton, Vice President of the nonprofit organization Public Advocate of the United States and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008
Larry Crim, nonprofit executive
Gary Gene Davis
Dave Hancock
Park Overall, actress
Thomas K. Owens
Benjamin Roberts

Results[edit]

Democratic primary results^[6]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Mark E. Clayton	48,126	29.99%
	Democratic	Gary Gene Davis	24,789	15.45%
	Democratic	Park Overall	24,263	15.12%
	Democratic	Larry Crim	17,383	10.83%
	Democratic	Benjamin Roberts	16,369	10.20%
	Democratic	David Hancock	16,167	10.08
	Democratic	Thomas Owens	13,366	8.33
Total votes			160,463	100.00

General election[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Bob Corker (Republican), incumbent U.S. Senator
Mark E. Clayton (Democratic)^[7]
Shaun Crowell (Libertarian)
Martin Pleasant (Green)^[8]^[9]
Kermit Steck (Constitution)^[9]^[10]
David Gatchell (independent)
James Higdon (independent)
Michel Joseph Long (independent)
Troy Stephen Scoggin (independent)
Jacob Maurer (Write-In)^[11]

Predictions[edit]

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[12]	Solid R	November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[13]	Safe R	November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report^[14]	Safe R	November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics^[15]	Safe R	November 5, 2012

Polling[edit]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Corker (R)	Mark Clayton (D)	Other	Undecided
Issues and Answers Network Inc.	October 16–21, 2011	609	±4%	59%	21%	4%	15%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Corker (R)	Phil Bredesen (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 9–13, 2011	500	±4.4%	41%	46%	—	12%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Corker (R)	Jim Cooper (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 9–13, 2011	500	±4.4%	50%	32%	—	22%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Corker (R)	Harold Ford, Jr. (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 9–13, 2011	500	±4.4%	55%	32%	—	14%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Corker (R)	Bart Gordon (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 9–13, 2011	500	±4.4%	52%	29%	—	19%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Corker (R)	Al Gore (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 9–13, 2011	500	±4.4%	53%	38%	—	9%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Corker (R)	Tim McGraw (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 9–13, 2011	500	±4.4%	50%	28%	—	22%

Results[edit]

Despite the TN Democratic Party encouraging write-in voting, the general election only saw 0.05% cast write-in votes. Clayton significantly underperformed compared to Barack Obama, running for re-election to the Presidency on the same day. He got about 9% and 254,827 votes fewer than the President.

United States Senate election in Tennessee, 2012^[16]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Bob Corker (incumbent)	1,506,443	64.89%	+14.18%
	Democratic	Mark Clayton	705,882	30.41%	-17.59%
	Green	Martin Pleasant	38,472	1.66%	+1.52%
	Independent	Shaun Crowell	20,936	0.90%	N/A
	Constitution	Kermit Steck	18,620	0.80%	N/A
	Independent	James Higdon	8,085	0.35%	N/A
	Independent	Michael Joseph Long	8,080	0.35%	N/A
	Independent	Troy Stephen Scoggin	7,148	0.31%	N/A
	Independent	David Gatchell	6,523	0.28%	N/A
	n/a	Write-ins	1,288	0.05%	N/A
Total votes			2,321,477	100.00%	N/A
	Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican[edit]

Cannon (Largest city: Woodbury)
Crockett (Largest city: Bells)
DeKalb (Largest city: Smithville)
Dickson (Largest city: Dickson)
Franklin (Largest city: Winchester)
Giles (Largest city: Pulaski)
Henry (Largest city: Paris)
Hickman (Largest city: Centerville)
Lewis (Largest city: Hohenwald)
Marion (Largest city: Jasper)
Marshall (Largest city: Lewisburg)
Warren (Largest city: McMinnville)
White (Largest city: Sparta)
Benton (largest municipality: Camden)
Clay (largest municipality: Celina)
Grundy (largest municipality: Altamont)
Humphreys (largest municipality: Waverly)
Lake (largest municipality: Tiptonville)
Lauderdale (largest municipality: Ripley)
Overton (largest municipality: Livingston)
Perry (largest municipality: Linden)
Smith (largest municipality: Carthage)
Stewart (largest municipality: Dover)
Trousdale (largest municipality: Hartsville)
Van Buren (largest municipality: Spencer)
Houston (largest city: Erin)
Jackson (largest town: Gainesboro)
Hardeman (largest city: Bolivar)
Macon (Largest city: Lafayette)
Montgomery (Largest city: Clarksville)
Sequatchie (Largest city: Dunlap)
Davidson (largest city: Nashville)

By congressional district[edit]

Corker carried 8 of the 9 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.^[17]

District	Corker	Clayton	Representative
1st	76.58%	19.24%
1st	76.58%	19.24%	Phil Roe
2nd	72.75%	21.24%	John J. Duncan, Jr.
3rd	70.6%	25.6%	Chuck Fleischmann
4th	69.3%	26.1%	Scott DesJarlais
5th	50.21%	43.32%	Jim Cooper
6th	73.32%	22.04%	Diane Black
7th	69.62%	25.75%	Marsha Blackburn
8th	70.26%	26.4%	Stephen Fincher
9th	28.56%	67.0%	Steve Cohen

References[edit]

^ "Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2012". Tennessee Secretary of State. November 6, 2012. Retrieved February 28, 2023.
^ "2012's worst candidate? With Mark Clayton, Tennessee Democrats hit bottom." by David A. Fahrenthold, Washington Post, October 22, 2012, Retrieved 2012-10-23, ""If there are people who don't believe that there's a campaign here, then guess what? They can come to Tennessee, if they're a voter, and they can see Mark E. Clayton, and next to Mark E. Clayton there's going to be a 'D,' " he said on the phone. "Like it or not, Mark Clayton is the Democratic nominee in Tennessee.""
^ Murphy, Tim (August 3, 2012). "Dems Nominate Anti-Gay Conspiracy Theorist for Senate". Mother Jones. Retrieved August 21, 2012.
^ Cass, Michael (August 3, 2012). "Tennessee Democratic Party disavows Senate nominee". The Tennessean. Retrieved August 4, 2012.
^ Sisk, Chas (August 17, 2012). "Mark Clayton victory in Democratic primary upheld by Nashville judge". The Tennessean. Retrieved August 21, 2012.
^ ^a ^b "Tennessee Secretary of State Unofficial Election Results". Secretary of State of Tennessee. Retrieved August 2, 2012.
^ "clayton forus' – Products I Tried To Satisfy Myself". Retrieved December 30, 2022.
^ "Candidates GPTN".
^ ^a ^b Winger, Richard (February 3, 2012). "Tennessee Ballot Access Law for New and Minor Parties Struck Down". Ballot Access News. Retrieved August 4, 2012.
^ "Current Candidates « The Constitution Party of Tennessee". Archived from the original on October 21, 2012. Retrieved August 4, 2012.
^ "Jacob Maurer - US Senate Candidate - Home". Archived from the original on June 6, 2013. Retrieved September 27, 2012.
^ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
^ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
^ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
^ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
^ State of Tennessee. November 6, 2012. General Election
^ Nir, David (November 19, 2020). "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012". Daily Kos.

External links[edit]

Official campaign websites

[1] "Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2012". Tennessee Secretary of State. November 6, 2012. Retrieved February 28, 2023.

[2] "2012's worst candidate? With Mark Clayton, Tennessee Democrats hit bottom." by David A. Fahrenthold, Washington Post, October 22, 2012, Retrieved 2012-10-23, ""If there are people who don't believe that there's a campaign here, then guess what? They can come to Tennessee, if they're a voter, and they can see Mark E. Clayton, and next to Mark E. Clayton there's going to be a 'D,' " he said on the phone. "Like it or not, Mark Clayton is the Democratic nominee in Tennessee.""

[3] Murphy, Tim (August 3, 2012). "Dems Nominate Anti-Gay Conspiracy Theorist for Senate". Mother Jones. Retrieved August 21, 2012.

[tennessean-4] Cass, Michael (August 3, 2012). "Tennessee Democratic Party disavows Senate nominee". The Tennessean. Retrieved August 4, 2012.

[5] Sisk, Chas (August 17, 2012). "Mark Clayton victory in Democratic primary upheld by Nashville judge". The Tennessean. Retrieved August 21, 2012.

[TN_primary-6] "Tennessee Secretary of State Unofficial Election Results". Secretary of State of Tennessee. Retrieved August 2, 2012.

[7] "clayton forus' – Products I Tried To Satisfy Myself". Retrieved December 30, 2022.

[8] "Candidates GPTN".

[ballot-9] Winger, Richard (February 3, 2012). "Tennessee Ballot Access Law for New and Minor Parties Struck Down". Ballot Access News. Retrieved August 4, 2012.

[10] "Current Candidates « The Constitution Party of Tennessee". Archived from the original on October 21, 2012. Retrieved August 4, 2012.

[11] "Jacob Maurer - US Senate Candidate - Home". Archived from the original on June 6, 2013. Retrieved September 27, 2012.

[12] "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.

[13] "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.

[14] "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.

[15] "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.

[16] State of Tennessee. November 6, 2012. General Election

[17] Nir, David (November 19, 2020). "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012". Daily Kos.

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Background[edit]

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Publicly Speculated, but Declined[edit]

Polling[edit]

Results[edit]

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Results[edit]

General election[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Polling[edit]

Results[edit]

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican[edit]

By congressional district[edit]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

External links[edit]

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